10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for July 25th
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Monday, July 25th, 2016.
1. Here is the list of qualified starters who have allowed less contact than Michael Pineda’s 71.0% this year – Jose Fernandez (67.9%), Clayton Kershaw (68.3%), Noah Syndergaard (70.3%), and Max Scherzer (70.7%). The problem, of course, has been what happens when batters do make contact against Pineda. The four aforementioned starters season-long BABIPS average out at .275…Pineda’s is .342. As always, it’ll be feast or famine with Pineda on Monday as he faces an Astros team that ranks 29th in overall contact (75.0%) and ninth in ISO againt RHP (.174).
2. Jake Arrieta has been rounding back into form lately, walking just one batter in each of the past two starts. It’s the first time he’s walked one or fewer in two consecutive games since the first two starts of the season. He’s a heavy favorite against the crosstown rival White Sox, who rank in the bottom third of MLB in wOBA (.304, ranks 24th), ISO (.146, ranks 22nd), and wRC+ (86, ranks 25th). After a brief rough patch, Arrieta appears to be cash game viable once again.
3. Aaron Sanchez is one of two active players to allow a sub-.500 OPS to right-handed batters in his first three seasons in the majors (minimum 130 IP). The other? Jose Fernandez, whose .464 OPS allowed to righties in years 1-3 slightly edges out Sanchez’s .496 mark.
4. One more Sanchez stat (obviously I’m high on him in his matchup against the Padres): he has a 2.76 ERA over his first three years in the majors beginning in 2014. Among active pitchers who pitched at least 250 innings in years 1-3, that mark ranks fourth, trailing only Fernandez, Jacob deGrom, and Matt Harvey. Sanchez is having a better start to his career than guys like Chris Sale (2.89 ERA in years 1-3), Madison Bumgarner (3.10), and even Clayton Kershaw (3.17) did, and somehow it still feels like he flies under the radar.
5. Dallas Keuchel has been a Yankee killer in his brief career, going seven or more innings in each of his four starts while owning a 1.45 ERA and a .774 WHIP, both the lowest of any pitcher with at least four games started against the Yankees during that span. And that’s not even including the American League Wild Card game, in which Keuchel allowed just three hits and walked only one in six innings of scoreless work. Keuchel represents an extremely safe option against a Yankees team has an 86 wRC+ against LHP (tied with the Dodgers for 27th-worst in MLB) and that ranks 25th or worse this season in average, OBP, and slugging against ground ball pitchers.
6. In 45.0 innings pitched to right-handed batters in 2016, Chase Anderson has a .430 wOBA, which would be highest in the majors if he had the few more innings required to qualify. Just for some context: 2007 was the last time a qualified starter ended a season with a wOBA higher than .430 to righties, when somebody named Mike Maroth who I legitimately have never heard of) posted a .440 mark in 91.0 innings. Not surprisingly, that was Maroth’s last season in the majors. All that to say…Diamondbacks righties could be a nice source of value on Monday.
7. Jose Altuve has a wOBA of .418 and is averaging 0.26 stolen bases per game. Only five players since 1930 have matched those numbers – Chuck Knoblauch (1996), Rickey Henderson (1990 and 1993), Barry Bonds (1990 and 1992), Paul Molitor (1987), and Joe Morgan (1975 and 1976). Altuve’s matchup is certainly not ideal as he takes on Michael Pineda, but Pineda has actually been slightly worse versus righties in 2016 (.345 wOBA, compared to .336 versus lefties).
8. Willson Contreras has reached base safely in 29 of his 31 games as a major leaguer. You have to go all the way back to 1984 to find another player (Alvin Davis) who reached base more frequently in his first 29 games. Monday looks like a rough day at catcher, and Contreras is always in play when he hits in the heart of a potent Cubs lineup.
9. Brandon Belt has struck out at a league-leading 44.4% clip over the past 14 days. It’s his highest K% over an eight-game stretch since 2014.
10. Mike Trout’s career 1.032 OPS against fly ball pitchers is the best in MLB during that span (min. 500 at-bats since 2011). And yeah, that might seem like a pointless thing to point out – Trout is good, the sky is blue, etc. etc. etc. But while Trout is good against everyone, he’s better against fly ball pitchers – his OPS against ground ball pitchers is a much more mortal .874. When you combine that with the fact that Trout has been better against righties in his career (169 wRC+ vs. RHP, 159 vs. RHP), it becomes clear that his matchup against Ian Kennedy (a righty with a 48.8% fly ball rate in 2016) is elite. He’s worth paying up for on Monday.
Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from StatMuse, FanGraphs, and Baseball Reference.
Be sure to check back on Sundays, Mondays, Thursdays, and Saturdays throughout the MLB season for more “10 Notes” articles. Good luck tonight!