10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for June 19th
This MLB season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 MLB notes for Monday, June 19th.
1. In 11 career starts against the Mets, Clayton Kershaw has allowed a .477 OPS and 1.29 ERA, both of which are the lowest he has allowed to any team he’s faced at least four times. He’s allowed Mets hitters to bat just .181, and he’s allowed a lower slugging percentage (.230) than on-base percentage (.247). He’s riding a three-game streak of 10+ strikeouts against the Mets dating back to 2015. He’s allowed two home runs in 77 innings pitched against the team (0.23 HR/9). Does any of this make you more likely to roster Kershaw in cash games on Monday? Maybe not. He’s a -300 favorite at home, and the Mets’ implied run total of 2.27 runs is 1.77 runs fewer than the next-lowest implied total (the Reds, at 4.04 runs). Kershaw is the obvious plug-and-play cash game pitcher of Monday’s slate – don’t overthink it.
2. The San Diego Padres have faced 18 left-handed starters this year. Seventeen of those 18 starters have allowed three or fewer earned runs. Seven have recorded eight or more strikeouts in a game. Fourteen have earned quality starts. As a massive -230 favorite at home, Jon Lester has the highest non-Kershaw floor on the slate, and he makes some sense as a tournament pivot off Kershaw; while he’s not likely to outscore Kershaw, he could come close, and the salary savings could allow you to afford a few bats Kershaw owners won’t have access to.
3. Since 2016, Corey Kluber has a 29.8% strikeout rate and a 29.4% hard contact rate against right-handed hitters, numbers that are virtually identical to Kershaw’s (29.8% K rate, 29.5% hard hits). This is significant, as Kluber will face an almost entirely right-handed Orioles lineup on Monday. In particular, Kluber has neutralized righties with an amazing curveball – of the 17 players with at least 60 results against right-handed hitters, Kluber’s .032 ISO on his curveball ranks first. He throws that pitch nearly 30 percent of the time against righties, which sounds great, until you consider that Baltimore’s right-handed batters have a .333 ISO against curveballs this year is by far the best in MLB (Tampa Bay’s righties rank second at .258). Kluber has double-digit strikeout upside in this matchup, which makes him an elite tournament play, but even given his success against right-handed batters, this is a risky spot for cash games.
4. Chris Sale leads all qualified starters with a 35.2% strikeout rate; Brad Peacock (in a small sample of 39 innings pitched) has a 35.6% strikeout rate. On a day where the mid-range of pitching is ugly, Peacock has to be considered simply for his strikeout upside against an Oakland team who fans at a 24.8% clip against righties, fourth-highest in MLB. The walks are a problem for Peacock – his 13.5% walk rate means that even if he gets close to 100 pitches (as he did in his last start, with 96), he may not go deep into the game. But the strikeouts should be there, and Peacock’s ability to limit the long ball (0.23 HR/9, second-best in MLB among pitchers with at least 39 innings) could neutralize Oakland’s power (they rank seventh in MLB with a .196 ISO against righties). He’s far from a cash game play, but he’s certainly got GPP-winning upside, especially if he’s allowed to pitch deep into the game.
5. Take a look at a few DFS-relevant stats for Edwin Encarnacion by month this year:
| Stat | April | May | June |
|---|---|---|---|
| wOBA | .352 | .356 | .512 |
| ISO | .153 | .212 | .435 |
| wRC+ | 91 | 121 | 228 |
| K% | 33.0% | 21.2% | 12.1% |
It’s safe to say that Edwin Encarnacion, a player with a reputation for being streaky, is on an epic heater. Dylan Bundy throws a four-seam fastball nearly half the time to right-handed batters, and Edwin Encarnacion has an MLB-leading 0.923 ISO against four-seamers this month. He’s still really affordable at FanDuel ($3,700), and he’s an elite play for both cash games and tournaments.
6. Since 2015, only three players have a .380+ wOBA, a .300+ ISO, and a 40.0%+ hard contact rate against left-handed pitchers (min. 200 PA): Giancarlo Stanton, Nelson Cruz, and Ryan Zimmerman. On Monday, Zimmerman will face Miami lefty Justin Nicolino, who simply can’t strike out right-handed hitters. Consider this: there are 199 pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched to right-handed hitters since 2015, and with a strikeout rate at 9.2 percent, Nicolino is the only one of those 199 with a K rate in single digits. Zimmerman should put the ball in play multiple times, which, given his dominance against southpaws, makes him an elite play in all formats.
7. Here are the top five hitters in wRC+ against right-handed pitching this year: Mike Trout (215), ________ (198), Aaron Judge (192), Paul Goldschmidt (179), Bryce Harper (179). Which player belongs in the blank, amongst the elite of MLB’s elite hitters? That player (kind of amazingly) is Alex Avila. Avila is also the MLB leader in hard hits against righties, with a 61.2% hard contact rate. The days of getting Avila at a bargain basement price tag are over, but he’s certainly not overpriced given his production against opposite-handed pitchers this year. Don’t be fooled by Seattle righty Sam Gaviglio early success against lefties (.298 wOBA in in 16.0 IP); his 40.4% hard hit rate, .186 BABIP, 87.7% strand rate, and 4.48 xFIP against lefties are all signals that, sooner or later, Gaviglio will be hit hard by regression. It could begin on Monday at the hands of Avila.
8. In the same game, Anibal Sanchez makes his return to the rotation. Sanchez has allowed a whopping nine home runs in just 21 innings of relief this year; for context, the 3.86 HR/9 was even worse than Jered Weaver’s 3.40 mark. Sanchez allowed 59 homers from 2015-2016 as a starter. He allows high fly balls to right-handed hitters, which means Nelson Cruz (who has four home runs in 12 at-bats against Sanchez) is an excellent one-off play if you’re home run hunting in tournaments.
9. In his home ballpark, Marcell Ozuna has multiple hits in five straight games at home, and six of his last seven games, and nine of his last eleven games. His matchup with Tanner Roark (.288 wOBA, 54.8% ground ball rate against RHB this year) is certainly not elite, but Ozuna continues to be one of the more underrated hitters in baseball, and he’s rarely popular, which makes him interesting as a one-off in large-field GPPs.
10. In the month of June, Lorenzo Cain ranks in the top five in MLB in wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ (Gary Sanchez is the only other player to rank in the top five in all three categories). In the past, Cain has crushed left-handed pitching, but in 2017, he’s doing most of his damage against righties, posting a .378 wOBA against same-handed pitchers. He faces a righty on Monday in Hector Velasquez, and because Cain is on the Royals, he’s almost guaranteed to have minuscule ownership in tournaments.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to keep the discussion going!