10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for June 5th
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Sunday, June 5, 2015.
1. In 11 starts this season, Jake Arrieta has walked four batters in on four different occasions. In his 67 starts as a Cub prior to 2016 dating back to 2013, he walked four or more batters on just three occasions. However, this appears like more of an aberration than anything – he’s still staying in the strike zone as much as ever (45.5 Zone%, his best rate since 2013), getting ahead in the count (61.8% first-strike rate, the best mark of his career), and inducing plenty of swings and misses (10.5% SwStr%, close to his 2015 rate of 11.1%). At home against a middle-of-the-road Diamondbacks team (93 wRC+ against RHP this year, ranked 19th in MLB), Arrieta is as safe as ever.
2. One more Arrieta stat: the reigning Cy Young winner has faced 288 batters in 2016 and allowed just 11 extra-base hits in 2016 – that’s one extra-base hit every 26.2 batters faced. No other pitcher who has pitched as many innings as Arrieta (75.0) has allowed so few extra-base hits.
3. Kris Bryant is the definition of a GPP play against lefty Patrick Corbin on Sunday. When he’s facing lefties at Wrigley, he’s swinging for the fences – he has a 50.0% fly ball rate and a 41.9% hard-contact rate – both of those are the highest for Bryant among any handedness of hitter, home or away. He’s got just six hits in 33 at-bats (.182 average) at home versus lefties this year, but four of them have been home runs. His opponent on the mound on Sunday, Arizona lefty Patrick Corbin, has allowed 10 HR to righties this year, tied for third-most in MLB, and has a 40.0% hard-contact rate, tied (with Justin Nicolino) for second-highest in MLB.
4. In 17.2 innings pitched this year, Jon Moscot has more home runs allowed (8) than strikeouts (7). The Reds’ bullpen has allowed 43 home runs this year, 12 more than the bullpen of the second-place Twins. Just for context, consider: the 12-homer distance between the Reds and Twins in this stat is the same distance between the Twins and the 16th-place Mariners. Nationals lefties Bryce Harper (.300 ISO vs. RHP, ranked sixth in MLB) and Daniel Murphy (191 wRC+ vs. RHP, ranked second behind only David Ortiz) are two of the top hitters on Sunday’s slate.
5. In 57 PAs against ground ball pitchers this year, Adam Duvall has hit seven home runs, more than any other player in MLB. After smacking his 15th home run last night, his .352 ISO in 2016 ranks second, behind only David Ortiz (.395).
6. Even so, it’ll be tough to roster Duvall against Tanner Roark on Sunday. Roark has a 39.8% soft-contact rate against right-handed hitters this year. That’s more than twice the league average mark (league average is 19.2%).
7 Aaron Nola is not a strikeout artist – we know this. But he is consistently solid, if not spectacular, in the K department. After striking out six Nationals in his last start, Aaron Nola now has fanned a half-dozen or more on ten occasions in 2016 – one more time than Noah Syndergaard, Stephen Strasburg, and Jose Fernandez, the same number of times as Chris Sale and Clayton Kershaw, and just one fewer time than Max Scherzer and Madison Bumgarner. The last time we checked in with Nola’s Sunday opponent, the Brewers (note #3 here), they ranked at the bottom of MLB against ground ball pitchers (like Nola) and at the top of the league in strikeout percentage versus righties (like Nola). Nothing’s changed. The Brewers still rank last in BA, SLG, and OPS against ground ballers, and their 26.4 K% against RHP is still the worst mark in MLB.
8. After inexplicably walking seven Padres and allowing five earned runs on May 20, Scott Kazmir has rebounded nicely, striking out 19 batters over his next two starts. The last time he fanned 19 over a two-game stretch was on September 21 and 28 of 2013, when he was a member of the Indians. On Sunday, he faces a Braves team whose ineptitude against lefties has been written about ad nauseum, and he hopes to fan more than the four Braves Clayton Kershaw was able to on Saturday.
9. Jose Altuve is currently riding a 10-game hitting streak in which he’s struck out just one time.
10. According to StatCast, Chris Young averages 259 feet per batted ball this year – that’s the longest average distance of any pitcher in MLB. Young is an extreme fly ball pitcher (55.0% career fly ball rate), making Indians like Mike Napoli (.318 ISO vs. fly ball pitchers this year) and Carlos Santana (.261 ISO vs. fly ball pitchers this year) decent bets for home runs on Sunday.