10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for May 30th
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Monday, May 30, 2016.
1. If you’re like me and rostered Noah Syndergaard and Taijuan Walker over the past two days, you may be seeking some stability at your SP slot on Monday, someone who won’t get yanked early for one reason or another. You’re in luck. Monday’s slate features three pitchers who are all tied for the MLB lead with an average of 108 pitches per start. Those pitchers are Steven Wright, Justin Verlander, and…
2. Jeff Samardzija, who travels to Atlanta to take on a Braves team that ranks in the bottom-three in all of baseball in wRC+ (74), wOBA (.284), and ISO (.090) against right-handed pitching this year. In eight games this season, the Braves haven’t even registered a single extra-base hit – that’s the most such games of any team in MLB. On a lean day for pitching, Samardzija appears to have the best combination of safety and upside.
3. Another pitcher who should be relatively safe on Monday is Cardinals’ righty Carlos Martinez. Normally, Martinez is about as far from safe as Giancarlo Stanton is from being a slap hitter. But Martinez has a slate-high 54.3% groundball rate, which should really work in his favor against the Brewers. On Saturday, I wrote about the Phillies being bad against groundball pitchers from an OBP standpoint. The Brewers are bad against groundballers in OBP and basically every other metric – their .196 batting average, .246 slugging percentage, and .551 OPS are all worst in MLB by significant margins. And if you need some context as to how bad a .551 OPS is, in 118 career plate appearances, CC Sabathia put up a .551 OPS. When you add in the Brewers MLB-worst 27.1 K% against righties, Martinez appears to have less blowup risk than usual on Monday.
4. Matt Harvey has allowed 12.3 hits per nine innings this year. The only pitcher who’s been more generous to opposing hitters has been Wily Peralta (13.2 H/9). Even in pitcher-friendly CitiField, even against a White Sox team who ranks in the bottom-third of MLB in wOBA, ISO, and wRC+, even if somehow all the White Sox position players missed the plane to New York and they were forced to field an all-pitcher lineup…even then, Matt Harvey cannot be trusted until further notice.
5. Marco Estrada has allowed three or fewer earned runs in 15 consecutive starts in the Rogers Centre dating back to May 27, 2015. The only pitcher in MLB to limit his opposition to three or fewer earned runs in more consecutive games in the same home park is Madison Bumgarner, who has done it in his last 22 starts at AT&T Park.
6. As far as hitters, the easiest, no-brainer, lock-and-load play of the day (and you should have no trouble affording him with the lack of high-priced pitching) has to be Joey Votto in Coors Field. Votto’s been far from elite this season, with an 88 wRC+ that ranks 144th in MLB among qualified hitters, just above Didi Gregorious. But (unsurprisingly), Votto’s been dominant in the high altitude. Among players with a minimum of 20 starts at Coors since Votto’s debut season of 2007, no player has topped his .471 OBP.
7. Jose Bautista, baseball’s most unlikely leadoff hitter this side of Carlos Santana, faces a groundball pitcher in Yankees’ righty Ivan Nova on Monday. Since 2014, Bautista’s seen a major boost in production against groundballers in terms of ISO (.259 vs. flyball pitchers, .346 vs. groundball pitchers), batting average (.257 vs. FB, .350 vs. GB), on-base percentage (.356 vs. FB, .450 vs. GB), and slugging percentage (.516 vs. FB, .695 vs. GB). Given the (deserved) attention that will be paid to Coors bats, Bautista should see a dip in ownership, which makes him a perfect tournament play. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s got hits in 15 of his last 16 games.
8. Mike Napoli faces Rangers’ lefty Derek Holland at home on Monday. With so many first basemen in ideal spots on Monday (Votto, Papi, Hanley, Miggy, Goldy, E5), nobody will be playing Napoli, which could be a mistake – since the start of 2015, no first baseman in MLB (minimum 200 PAs) has a higher ISO against LHP than Napoli’s .256.
9. Since 2014, Jacoby Ellsbury has a .393 batting average in 88 plate appearances at the Rogers Centre, a mark that ranks second only to the .404 mark put up by (brace yourself…) Darwin Barney (full disclosure: Barney only has 56 career PAs at the Rogers Centre).
10. By now, the secret’s out on Marcell Ozuna – he’s been one of the best hitters in MLB in May with a .503 wOBA (best in MLB), a 220 wRC+ (also best in MLB), a .431 batting average (yep…best in MLB), and a 1.188 OPS (second only to David Ortiz and his 1.199 mark). But here, we’re interested in the more obscure numbers, so here goes: Ozuna has reached base in 35 straight games (including reaching on errors), which is longer than any other active streak in MLB. He’s also got at least one extra-base hit in seven consecutive home games, also the longest active streak in baseball. On Monday, he’s in a prime spot at home against lefty Jeff Locke, who’s allowed a .381 wOBA and a slate-high seven HRs to right-handed batters this year.