10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes for NFL Week 5
Each week during the NFL season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that week’s slate of NFL games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between. I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about this week’s NFL plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 notes for NFL Week 5.
1. Julio Jones had three catches of 40+ yards last week against the Panthers. His opponent on Sunday, the Denver Broncos, haven’t allowed a single pass of 40+ yards in four games this season (the only other team yet to allow any passes of 40+ yards is the Patriots). The Broncos have held opposing quarterbacks to a league-low 61.3 QB rating. That’s, like, Chris Weinke-level bad (no, seriously – Weinke’s career passer rating was actually a little better than that, at 62.2). And here’s the kicker: the group of QBs the Broncos have reduced to Weinke-esque ineptitude include three former #1 overall picks (Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Jameis Winston) and another solid-to-good QB (Andy Dalton). This feels like the week Matt Ryan falls back down to earth, and if he does, he’ll likely bring Julio with him. Personally, I prefer Antonio Brown in cash games and Odell Beckham, Jr. in tournaments.
2. Speaking of Beckham, his Giants face a Green Bay Packers team that has allowed a total of 128 rushing yards this season. Individual running backs have rushed for over 128 yards on six different occasions this season. And while the Raiders’ porous pass defense has hogged all the publicity (and deservedly so), the Packers secondary has been nearly as generous to opposing teams, allowing 330.3 yards per game through the air (just 2.5 fewer yards per game than the Raiders). They’ve given up 155.6 yards per game to opposing WR1s, by far the most in the league, and now top corner Sam Shields has been ruled out with a concussion. The Giants aren’t going to beat the Packers by riding Orleans Darkwa or Bobby Rainey, so they should take to the air early and often, which should mean a breakout game for Beckham. That is, assuming he doesn’t have another meltdown and get benched.
3. Since entering the league in 2005, Aaron Rodgers has the highest TD% (7.2 percent) in the NFL at home (minimum 800 pass attempts). And not only that – he also has the lowest INT%, throwing a pick on just 1.3 percent of his pass attempts at Lambeau Field. In 1996 attempts, Rodgers has thrown just 26 interceptions. He’s facing a Giants team that ranks 23rd in pass DVOA, and it’s a team that has not intercepted a pass this season. In fact, they’re the only team without a pick in 2016. Somehow, it still seems like Rodgers is flying under the radar (Thanks, Tom Brady). The Rodgers / Jordy Nelson stack could be very underowned combo in tournaments, and in a potential shootout, the upside is massive.
4. Since 2014, Jordy Nelson has averaged 111.3 yards at home, compared to 72.3 on the road. He’s also one of two players in the NFL with touchdowns in three straight games. The other is…
5. Kyle Rudolph, who has seen a major target bump since Sam Bradford became Minnesota’s starting quarterback. He’s averaging 8.3 targets per game this year, up from 4.6 last year, and he’s on pace to smash his career-high mark of 5.9, set in 2012. He’s got 221 yards through four games this year, which is almost 45 percent of his total in 16 games played in 2015. And his market share is almost unparalleled among tight ends – only Greg Olsen (33.03%) is seeing a higher percentage of targets than Rudolph’s 30.03 percent. Unfortunately, we’ll just have to keep these numbers in mind moving forward, as Rudolph is essentially unrosterable in Week 5 against a Texans team that has allowed a league-best 23.7 yards per game to tight ends despite facing stiff competition from the position (Zach Miller, Martellus Bennett, Delanie Walker, Travis Kelce).
6. Zach Ertz, on the other hand, has a primo matchup. He faces a Lions team that has allowed six TDs to tight ends this year, the most in the NFL. For context, eleven NFL teams didn’t allow six TDs to tight ends in all of 2015.
7. If he has a three-touchdown game in Week 5 against the Chargers, Derek Carr will have 65 career TDs over 36 games. Why is that significant? Because it’s the same number of career TDs his brother David accrued over 94 games during stints with the Texans, Panthers, Giants, 49ers, and Giants (again). How has Carr been so successful? Well, for one thing, he’s been able to stay upright. His 1.5% sack rate is the lowest mark in the NFL this year. And while we’re here, we’ll note that his brother has a career sack percentage index mark of 74 at Pro Football Reference (which is just a metric that adjusts sacks on a scale where 100 is average and higher is better). That’s the lowest recorded mark in NFL history (or at least since Pro Football Reference started tracking that metric). In Week 5, the younger Carr should have no problem piling up numbers against a San Diego defense that will be missing it’s top corner, Jason Verrett.
8. Only one player in the NFL has 20+ DK points four times this year: it’s DeMarco Murray. He’s not in an ideal matchup in Week 5 against a Dolphins defense that has allowed just one TD on the season to opposing running backs (a LeGarrette Blount garbage time TD in the 3rd quarter that gave the Pats a 31-3 lead, no less), and they rank 12th in Football Outsiders’ rushing DVOA. But he’s basically the Titans’ entire offense, and he’s behind Pro Football Focus’s #1-ranked offensive line entering Week 5. With Le’Veon Bell and Melvin Gordon will soaking up a lot of ownership at the high end of the running back pool, Murray could go low owned, making him an interesting play for tournaments.
9. Matt Ryan, Dak Prescott, Ben Roethlisberger: those are the only QBs with more fantasy points than Brian Hoyer over the past two weeks. Charlie Whitehurst, Matt Cassel, Matt Schaub, Brandon Weeden, Ryan Mallett: those are all QBs who are priced at $6,000 at FanDuel, the same price as Brian Hoyer. It’s never going to feel good clicking Brian Hoyer name (probably why I had so much Cam Newton in cash games last week despite Hoyer’s cheap price tag and plus matchup). But Hoyer faces the Colts, who rank 29th in passing DVOA, per Football Outsiders. Because of price and matchup alone, it makes sense to consider him in cash games if you’re playing at FanDuel.
10. Ezekiel Elliott notched his second 120+ yard rushing performance in Week 5, joining Todd Gurley (2015), Cadillac Williams (2005), Julius Jones (2004), and Mike Anderson (2000) as the only backs since 1960 to record two games of 120+ rushing yards in the first four games of their careers (Gurley and Williams had three such games in their first four career games). He’ll take on a Cincinnati defense that has recently contained C.J. Anderson (14 carries, 37 yards, 0 TDs) and the Dolphins’ four-headed hot mess of a RB attack (combined 13 carries, 62 yards, 0 TDs), but it’s rare to be able to confidently project a running back at 20+ carries in 2016, and Elliott provides that. According to Chris Gimino’s projected ownership, Elliott will only be moderately owned, and in what could be a slow-paced, grind-it-out game, he’s a decent bet for another 100+ yards and a touchdown.
“10 Notes” Trivia Contest
Shoutout to @Pickle29 for correctly identifying Eddie Lacy and James Starks as the answer to last week’s trivia question! We’ll get those cards out to you ASAP.
On to this week’s trivia. As always, leave your answer in the comment thread below. This week, though, the first Grinder to correctly answer the question gets a shoutout in my new “10 Notes Sneak Peak” article (which will be published on Sunday nights moving forward) as well as a brand new pack of RotoGrinders playing cards (a thought just occurred to me: who’s the King on these playing cards? Any guesses?). Alright, let’s do it.
In Week 5, Ben Roethlisberger went 22/27 with five TD passes, so he had the same number of incompletions as TD passes. It was the first time in his career that he’d had as many or more TD passes as incompletions in a game (minimum 20 pass attempts in the game). Which quarterback has the most such games (as many or more TD passes as incompletions with 20+ pass attempts) in NFL history?