10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes for NFL Week 6
Each week during the NFL season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that week’s slate of NFL games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between. I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about this week’s NFL plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 notes for NFL Week 6.
1. Drew Brees is currently riding a seven-game streak of 3+ touchdown passes at home. It’s the second-longest streak in NFL history – only Peyton Manning’s streak of nine consecutive three-TD games from September, 2012 to September, 2013 is longer. He’s averaged a massive 45 pass attempts during this seven-game span. He’s the all-time leader in passing yardage per game at home (289.3 yards per game), and he should be the chalk in Week 6 against Carolina’s 22nd-ranked pass defense (Football Outsiders’ DVOA).
2. The Cincinnati Bengals are the only AFC team against whom Tom Brady does not have a 300-yard game. Since 2004, Brady has faced the Bengals six times, and he’s put up the following yardage totals: 260, 188, 231, 258, 197, and 292. The 2016 version of the Bengals is middle-of-the-road against the pass (ranked 17th in pass DVOA), and the 2016 version of Tom Brady is…angry. It’s hard to imagine Pro Football Focus’s #1-ranked QB falling short of the 300-yard benchmark at home against the Bengals on Sunday.
3. The San Francisco 49ers have allowed an opposing rusher to amass 100+ yards in four straight games (Fozzy Whittaker, Christine Michael, Ezekiel Elliott, David Johnson). No other team has currently allowed a 100-yard rusher in more than two straight games. LeSean McCoy, whose Bills draw the home matchup against a Niners team traveling across the country, is in a near-perfect spot to surpass his higher-priced peers in the top tier at RB, because this San Francisco run defense is just bad. Need more proof? Well, they allowed 157 yards to David Johnson, which was the highest single-game yardage output by any running back in 2016. For context, the Green Bay Packers have allowed 160 rushing yards total this year. The 49ers ineptitude at stopping the run, coupled with McCoy’s involvement in Buffalo’s passing game (19 receptions, tied for fifth-most among RBs this year), make McCoy a near lock for a big game in Week 6.
4. DeMarco Murray has 20+ DraftKings points in all five games this season. The last RB with 20+ DK points in five or more consecutive games was…DeMarco Murray in 2014, when he had eight straight games of 20+ DK points with the Cowboys. The Titans are a home 7.5 favorite against the Browns, so if game script goes as expected, the Titans will have the lead and be relying heavily on Murray, who was Pro Football Focus’s highest-graded running back in Week 5. A correlation play between Murray and Titans defense might be popular, but it could also be profitable.
5. There are 11 NFL running backs with 80+ carries in 2016. Those 11 backs have an average of 4.2 touchdowns this year, with 10 of the 11 having at least three touchdowns. And then there’s Lamar Miller, the other player on the list, who has zero touchdowns on the season despite seeing the heaviest volume of his career (101 carries, ranks fourth in NFL). His team still believes in him – he leads the NFL with 87.5 percent of his team’s red zone carries – and unless the Texans suddenly stop feeding Miller the ball, he’s due for some serious positive regression. That regression could come as early as Week 6, when Miller has a cushy matchup against the Indianapolis Colts, who rank 31st in Football Outsiders’ rush defense DVOA. And the icing on the cake is that, with all the high-end backs in elite spots (McCoy, Murray, Le’Veon Bell, Jordan Howard), Miller might come at a reduced ownership.
6. T.Y. Hilton’s two highest-scoring games, in terms of DraftKings points, came against the Houston Texans, who he faces in Week 6. On October 9th, 2014, Hilton caught nine passes (on nine targets) for 223 and a TD (40.3 DK points). On November 3rd, 2013, he hauled in seven of 12 targets for 123 yards and three TDs (40.1 DK points). Hilton’s in a far-from-ideal matchup against the Texans, who have allowed just three total passing touchdowns, a 56.9 completion percentage, and 181 passing yards per game (the best mark in the NFL). Digging a bit further, though, we see that the Texans only have only two interceptions on the year (which should help Andrew Luck, who can be mistake-prone from time to time). And the list of QBs they’ve faced isn’t exactly a list of future Hall of Famers; so far, they’ve faced Jay Cutler (might be benched for Brian Hoyer), Jacoby Brissett (third-string rookie), Alex Smith (well, he’s Alex Smith), Marcus Mariota (PFF’s 33rd-ranked QB of 35 qualifiers), Sam Bradford. You know the competition has been soft when Sam Bradford is the best of the bunch. On the other hand…
7. The Texans still rank ninth in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ Pass DVOA, which normalizes for competition, and Hilton has struggled in matchups against elite pass defenses. He’s faced teams that rank in the top 10 in DVOA twice this year (obviously these numbers are still forming, but hear me out), and five times in 2015 (based on the teams’ year-end rank in 2015). In those seven games, he’s averaged just 48.9 receiving yards. He’s been held at or below 45 yards in five of those games, and he’s found the endzone just once. Clearly, Hilton is not a player who is totally matchup-proof.
8. Sammie Coates totaled six receptions, 139 yards, and two TDs for the Steelers in Week 5. The last Steelers receiver not named Antonio Brown to exceed or meet each of those totals was Hines Ward…nearly 10 years ago on October 22, 2006. After his Week 5 explosion, Coates should see massive ownership, and justifiably so. He’s becoming more involved in the Steelers’ passing attack with each week, and he’s seen his targets increase from four in Week 3, to eight in Week 4, to a career-high 11 in Week 5.
9. Over the past two weeks, only three players have 14+ receptions, 190+ yards, and at least one TD. Two are obvious: they’re T.Y. Hilton, Julio Jones. The other? It’s San Francisco’s Jeremy Kerley. Kerley has played 90 percent of his snaps out of the slot, and his opponent, the Bills, have been generous to enemy slot receivers (Tavon Austin, Larry Fitzgerald, and Quincy Enunwa all have at least six catches and 59 yards against them). Kerley most likely won’t be winning anyone any GPPs, and it’s risky considering anyone in the 49ers passing attack with Colin Kaepernick getting his first start of the season in Week 6, but his recent production is certainly something to monitor moving forward.
10. In seven career games on Monday night, Larry Fitzgerald has just one touchdown, and he’s never exceeded 52 yards in a game. In fact, he averages just 34 yards per game on Monday Night Football. Here’s the list of Cardinals players who have averaged more yardage per game than Fitzgerald on Mondays since Fitz’s debut season of 2007: Michael Floyd, Anquan Boldin, John Brown, Andre Roberts, Early Doucet, Steve Breaston, Jerheme Urban. Yikes.
“10 Notes” Trivia Contest
Shoutout to @frank_drebin1986 for correctly identifying Peyton Manning as the answer to last week’s trivia question! And the first answer submitted, no less. Either the question was too easy, or you’re just a genius. Or both.
On to the Week 6 trivia question. As always, leave your answer in the comments thread, and the first to correctly answer the question gets a shoutout in this column next week, as well as a brand new pack of RotoGrinders playing cards (side note: I almost typed “RotoGrinders trading cards.” Powers that be – can we get these made? I’d love to get a Dean78904 or stlcardinals84 insert card).
In Note #10 above, I mentioned Larry Fitzgerald’s struggles on in his seven starts on Monday Night Football. Which wide receiver averages the MOST yards per game on Monday Night Football in NFL history (minimum seven games)?
Thanks for reading, and good luck this week, guys!