10 Notes Sneak Peek: Week 16
So, with next week’s main slate taking place on Christmas Eve, it would make sense for the intro for the article that will preview that slate would have some sort of Christmas theme. “The 12 Days of DFS,” “My DFS Wish List,” or something topical everyone gets into the holiday mindset.
But here’s the truth. I’m too tired to write something like that. I spent the morning editing and the rest of the day live blogging the 2016 FanDuel World Fantasy Football Championship, while at the same time trying to be a halfway decent parent, and I didn’t realize until after 7:00pm that all I’d consumed up to that point was a smoothie and coffee, after which point I ate an entire DiGiornio’s stuffed crust pizza. I’m not proud of that, but it happened.
So instead, I’m going to do something that’s much easier for me: I’m going to point out something dumb that I did. Specifically, I’m going to show you my cash lineup at DraftKings and point out something dumb I did in building it. So here goes:
It’s not a perfect lineup – if it was, I wouldn’t be bubbling right now, praying that Mike Evans and Ezekiel Elliott and anyone else who has even a smidge of ownership has a quiet Sunday night game. But it’s not a terrible lineup, either. I believed Tyrod Taylor was underpriced all week, and that worked out about exactly as I thought it would. I managed to fit in Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson, and while neither had a 55-point game like Bell did last week, I think it was the right move. When it became clear that Green Bay would lean heavily on Ty Montgomery, I pivoted over to him in the morning. Jermaine Gresham, nearly hitting 3x his salary despite doing almost nothing, showed why a $2,500 tight end on DraftKings is so valuable for cash games. And while Kenneth Farrow wasn’t good, he was highly owned enough that it lessened the sting.
And then there’s that 3.50 points. From Allen Robinson, a guy who I’d given up on weeks ago, a guy who I hadn’t even considered as a cash game option until (at the earliest), 11:00am Sunday morning. I could find all sorts of reasons to fade Allen Robinson: he’d caught nine balls for 90 yards over the previous four weeks; he would be covered by A.J. Bouye, Pro Football Focus’s sixth-ranked cornerback in the NFL; Blake Bortles. He wasn’t even on my radar.
Previously, I’d had J.J. Nelson in that slot, but when I shuffled a few players around (including adding Ty Montgomery and deciding on a defense), I had a pesky $500 left over.
And it irritated me.
I noticed that Robinson was available at a steep discount from what he’d cost at various points this year, and that price-wise, he fit perfectly. Bang – just lock him in, and you get that nice, tidy zero next to “Remaining Salary.” And that’s where the problem started; I didn’t start finding reasons to play Robinson until after I’d plugged him into my lineup and saw that he “fit.” I rationalizing the play to myself with thoughts like, “He hasn’t lost the talent he had a year ago,” and, “He barely has to do anything to make value at this price,” and, ““Bortles can’t be this bad forever, can he?” (answer: yes, he can). Suddenly, I was shocked I hadn’t considered Robinson for cash games before. It made so much sense.
You know how that worked out (especially if you played him, too). It’s not even like J.J. Nelson had some monster game; he had five catches for 38 yards, and a touchdown, but he also dropped two passes. That’s 14.8 DraftKings points, though, over 10 more than what Robinson gave me. You might be thinking, “Yeah, but it could have easily gone the other way,” which is true; I’m sure it’s worked out the other way, as well, where I’ve made a last-minute switch that benefited me. But it’s the reason I made the switch in the first place that was just, let’s be honest, dumb. So what if I had $500 left over? Did I really think that DraftKings’ pricing algorithm is so perfect that every player priced higher than another player is more likely to have a better game than the lower-priced player? It’s a ridiculous trap to fall into, to think that every bit of extra salary must be put to use or you’re not fielding an optimal lineup.
Ever had an earworm, a song that’s stuck in your head, and no matter what you do, you can’t get it out? Of course you have – everyone has (and for some reason, it’s never a song you actually enjoy). Someone told me once that the trick to getting rid of earworms is to play the song’s ending in your head. I’m not sure if it works or not, but the reason he gave made sense to me. He said that it works because people have a natural desire for closure, for things to be wrapped up tidily without any loose ends, so if you imagine the end of the song, something in your brain says, “Okay, cool – on to the next thing.” (I don’t know any of the actual science behind it, but that’s how I imagine my brain would have a conversation). It’s why high school students hate poetry that doesn’t rhyme, and why we can’t stand tie games in sports. There’s a built-in desire to tie up loose ends (or at least there is for me), and occasionally, that habit bleeds into my DFS lineup building.
It’s not going to be an expensive lesson – as of now, I’m cashing, and if I fall out of the green, I didn’t have much in play this week anyways. But thinking back, I’m sure I’ve talked myself into players I didn’t originally like for the simple reason that they “fit” from a salary standpoint. It’s definitely a flaw in my process, and one that I’ll, hopefully, begin to correct with this week’s slate of games.
That’s probably enough intro, especially since I spent the first bit complaining about how I didn’t have time to write a long intro. On to football talk.
All this happened, more or less…
Recapping 10 noteworthy happenings from Week 15.
1. @coree27 scored 152.32 FanDuel points and won the 2016 FanDuel World Fantasy Football Championship, becoming $1 million and one championship belt richer. If you missed coverage of the event, you can recap it here, complete with interviews with the competitors, lineup screencaps, GIFs, bad jokes…it’s all there.
2. David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell dominated running back ownership, and for good reason. But it was Le’Sean McCoy who stole the spotlight, leading the trio of high-end running backs in scoring with 34.90 DraftKings points. The argument against McCoy being on par with Le’Veon and DJ was his relative lack of usage; he rarely receives the volume of those two backs, and he didn’t in this game, either, but he only needed 19 carries to reach 153 yards and two scores.
3. Brandin Cooks and Drew Brees were low owned this week. Brandin Cooks (40.60 DraftKings points) and Drew Brees (33.36 DraftKings points) were good this week. Brandin Cooks and Drew Brees will be chalk next week.
4. Ty Montgomery went bananas on the Bears in the sub-zero temperatures of Chicago, rushing for 162 yards on 16 carries and finding the end zone twice. This was definitely a “get as many running backs as you can” kind of week, so it doesn’t hurt when one of your RBs is listed as a WR.
5. Savage sighting! Brock Osweiler, who signed a four-year, $72 million contract with the Texans this offseason, was booed off the field after throwing his second interception, prompting the Texans to bring in Tom Savage, who led the Texans to a win. I’m gonna be honest – there’s very little DFS relevance here. I mostly just wanted to include a Randy Savage GIF.
6. David Johnson exceeded 100 yards from scrimmage again. As you’ll hear at least a thousand times prior to next week’s kickoff, Johnson is the first player in NFL history to start a season with 100 yards from scrimmage in each of his first 14 games. If he does it again next week (no sure thing against the Seahawks), he’ll tie Barry Sanders’ all-time record for consecutive games with 100 scrimmage yards at 15.
7. Odell Beckham made an amazing one-handed catch. He also made this two-handed non-catch, which was ruled a catch.
8. After being limited to six carries on six yards, Devonta Freeman made us remember that he’s good. Or at least that the 49ers defense is really, really bad. He earned 139 yards on 20 carries, including three touchdowns. It was his seventh multi-touchdown game since the start of 2015 – only David Johnson (10) has more during that span.
9. We got another glimpse into just what a bizarro world DFS is, when seemingly everybody’s cash games plans hinged on the status of…Jermaine Gresham. All it took was a brief glance on Twitter, or in the RG forums, or in the chat during GrindersLive on Sunday morning, and you were sure to see someone saying something like, “Really need that Gresham news.” I’m not saying he was a bad play; I think he was a good play (I used him in cash). It’s just that, “I really need to know about Jermaine Gresham is not something I ever envisioned myself thinking. Ever. Jermaine Gresham played, and he was fine, putting up the most Gresham-esque line imaginable: three catches for 42 yards.
10. Ezekiel Elliott scored a touchdown, then jumped into the Salvation Army pot.
By far the best part about this story, though, is not the fact that he’s going to be fined (because that’ll teach him!), or that Zeke said he would donate whatever the NFL fines him to the Salvation Army. It’s the reason Zeke gave after the game for jumping in: “In warmups I saw it sitting there right by the end zone and I was like, man somebody’s got to jump in there. So I just had to do it.” This guy just gets it.
Looking ahead to Week 15…
First impressions of 10 noteworthy players for Week 16, using DraftKings pricing. This week, I will focus on the Christmas Eve games, which are what makes up DraftKings’ main slate for Week 16.
1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints (vs. TB) — $7,400 — After what Brees did this week (388 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs), it’s hard to envision him not being popular in Week 15. Yes, this is the same Bucs team that held Brees to 7.5 DraftKings points (his fifth-lowest total in any game as a Saint). The difference, though, is that he’ll be at “the Coors Field of the NFL” in this one. I’m not sure whether Brees’s Week 15 performance will totally make people forget about his lackluster performances of the two weeks prior, but I’m willing to chalk them up as outliers.
2. Melvin Gordon, San Diego Chargers (at CLE) —$7,200 — If Gordon is healthy (far from a guarantee), he’s in a prime spot against a Browns defense that ranks 32nd in DVOA against the run and just got embarrassed by LeSean McCoy. You know the drill: the Chagers will get the lead, they’ll rely heavily on Gordon to run out the clock, he’ll get red zone work. The best part is that he comes at a $200 discount after his injury, and since Le’Veon Bell does not play on Week 15’s main slate, we’ll have to look elsewhere for heavy volume.
3. Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams (vs. SF) — $6,500 — I’m not recommending playing Gurley necessarily. I listed him here because he’s been priced up by $2,000. This is excellent pricing by DraftKings; if Gurley had remained anywhere near the $4,500 it cost to roster him in Week 15, he’d be an auto-play. Gurley’s viability will be one of the more interesting stories to monitor this week (as opposed to the actual game between the Rams and 49ers, which is the NFL equivalent of a Phillies/Padres game in mid-September).
4. Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers (at LA) — $5,800 — Hyde was a trendy “sharp” play his Week 15 matchup against the Falcons, and while he wasn’t bad (13 carries, 72 yards, 5.5 yards per carry), the game script wasn’t in his favor (which was always the danger in using him). It’s safe to say that, against the Jared Goff-led Rams, game script will not be an issue. The Rams run defense is adequate, if not good (11th in DVOA), and it just limited Thomas Rawls to 34 yards on 21 carries. Still, Hyde’s price decreased by $100, and he offers multi-touchdown upside in a game where he should see volume for all four quarters.
6. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings (at GB) — $4,600 — Late in the weekend, Peterson was named the starter, and while he only gained 22 yards, not to mention fumbling the ball, the Colts jumped out to an early lead. The Vikings had no reason to keep Peterson on the field. If practice reports are favorable, and if it looks like Peterson will regain anything close to his feature back role, this price tag is tempting. I mean, he’s $300 more than Alfred Blue.
7. Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at NO) — $8,500 — Evans had another ho-hum performance on Sunday night, with four catches on eight targets for 59 yards and no scores. He hasn’t seen double-digit targets since Week 12, and not coincidentally, that was the last time he scored a touchdown, as well. But with Drew Brees playing at home, this game has more shootout potential than their Week 14 matchup, and if that’s the case, Evans should see massive volume for the first time in weeks.
8. Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons (at CAR) — $8,100 — Falcons head coach Dan Quinn says he “thinks,” Julio will play in the Falcons’ Week 16 matchup with the Panthers. In his last two games against the Panthers, Julio Jones has scored 86.8 DraftKings points, and his price has dropped $600 since his last game, in Week 13. There are a few other elite options at the high end of the receiver pool in Week 15 (Evans, T.Y. Hilton against Oakland at $7,800), but if Julio plays, he’s one of the top overall plays of the week.
9. Brandin Cooks, New Orleans Saints (vs. TB) — $6,800 — Since receiving zero targets in Week 12, Brandin Cooks has ranked in the top 10 among WRs in both targets and receptions, and he’s second with 320 yards. He’s once again become a focal point of the Saints’ offensive attack, and he’s still discounted after a few down weeks (he’s cost as much as $8,000 this year). Particularly at PPR sites, Cooks feels like a nice value in the mid-tier at WR.
10. Michael Crabtree, Oakland Raiders (vs. IND) — $6,100 — Since Oakland’s Week 10 bye Week, Michael Crabtree has 45 targets and 28 receptions, while Amari Cooper has 28 targets and 16 receptions. Crabtree is still $400 cheaper than Cooper ($6,500) in Week 15; it feels like their prices should be reversed. As of now, the Raiders/Colts game has the highest over/under of the week at 53 points, and Indianapolis ranks 26th in DVOA against the pass. Given his solid performance in Week 15 and the fact that he was a popular “sharp” play in Week 15 (50 percent owned at the FanDuel WFFC), Crabtree could emerge as a chalky option as the week progresses.