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2023 Cleveland Guardians Preview: Futures Odds, Lineup, Rotation, Bullpen Projections

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2023-03-29 19:03:33

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Nick Galaida is here to break down the Cleveland Guardians’ pitching rotation and lineup as he prepares you for the 2023 MLB season. Follow along for an in-depth preview, along with a look at current odds, projections, and picks. Get a head start on the baseball action with PrizePicks Promo Code GRINDERS for a $100 deposit bonus.

In 2021, the Cleveland Guardians suffered their first losing season in nine years with Terry Francona as the team’s manager. In the post-Francisco Lindor era, many fans blamed ownership for shallow pockets, but the larger issue was a brief loss of identity for the ballcub.

Two years ago, the Guardians were not particularly great at anything. In 2022, they rebounded to win 92 games and come within one game of the American League Championship Series as a result of increase emphasis on elite defense, high contact rates, and aggressive baserunner – otherwise known as small-ball.

Last year, Cleveland led the league in contact% only one season after finishing 20th. In the absence of marquee free agent signings, the logical conclusion is that the oganization made an internal shift in philosophy at the plate. The Guardians stole more bases than the year prior, finishing third in the league in steals and became the first team since 2003 with four gold glove winners in the same season.

Heading into 2023, the core from last summer’s improbable postseason run is back. Josh Bell, another high-contact bat, was brought in to further fortify the offense. There is plenty to be excited about regarding this group ahead of Opening Day.

Below, we take a look at this roster position-by-position, and provide insight into the futures market!

Starting Lineup

Catcher, Mike Zunino

Since the beginning of 2020, Mike Zunino has played in only 45.1% of possible games. During that stretch, he owns a .191 batting average, 36.9% strikeout percentage, and a .744 OPS. His saving grace is that when he makes contact, it tends to be loud contact. Of his 100 hits across the last three seasons, 62 of them have gone for extra-bases, with 42 of them being home runs.

As recently as 2021, Zunino ranked in the 89th percentile in pop time to second base and 94th percentile in framing. If he can play defense at a high level and run into a few dingers, Cleveland will be more than happy to pay him $6 million this year.

First Base, Josh Bell

Josh Bell was horrific defensively in 2022, ranking in the 14th percentile in outs above average, but Cleveland was likely more interested in his bat when they signed him this past off-season to a two-year, $33 million contract in free agency.

Bell finished last year ranked in the 83rd percentile in strikeout percentage, 93rd percentile in walk rate, and 84th percentile in xwOBA, performing at least 21% better than the league average hitter against both right- and left-handed pitching, as measured by wRC+.

Since hitting 37 home runs in 2019, Bell’s launch angle has never come close to 13.1 degrees, which has concurrently reduced his fly ball rate relative to its peak. However, his 8.3-degree swing path in 2022 was the highest that it had been in three seasons, which did help him hit fewer balls on the ground. If the Guardians can work with Bell to get the ball in the air even more in 2023, he has the potential to hit 30 home runs, especially considering that Progressive Field is one of the most power-friendly ballparks in the league for left-handed batters – nearly 70% of Bell’s plate appearances came as a left-handed batter last year.

Second Base, Andres Gimenez

Prior to the 2021 season, the Guardians traded Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco for a package that included Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez. At the time president of baseball operations, Chris Antonetti praised Gimenez’s defense, per Terry Pluto, and indicated that the organization viewed him as a potential long-term starter at second base.

Even Antonetti’s most optimistic projections were unlikely to anticipate what Gimenez did in 2022 in his first full MLB season, batting .297 with 17 home runs and 20 stolen bases en route to a sixth-place finish in the American League MVP voting. It is worth noting that Jose Ramirez had extremely similar numbers in his first full campaign – batting .312 with 11 home runs and 22 stolen bases.

Gimenez’s approach at the plate is not as mature as Ramirez, likely making it more difficult for him to replicate what he did in 2022. Gimenez hits the ball with less authority, walks less, and chases far more pitches outside of the zone than his teammate, but he is still only 24 years old with plenty of development in front of him. At a minimum, he is a Gold Glove caliber defender at the keystone, who possesses elite speed and an above-average bat. The Lindor trade does not look so bad after all.

Third Base, Jose Ramirez

According to Zack Meisel, Jose Ramirez underwent surgery in November on his right hand to repair a torn ligament that he injured last June. Prior to his injury, he had a .305 batting average, 13.0% walk rate, 7.6% strikeout percentage, and a 1.039 OPS. Following the injury, he posted a .264 batting average, 8.3% walk rate, 14.7% strikeout percentage, and a .766 OPS – clearly negatively impacted by his health.

Still, Ramirez finished fourth in voting for the American League MVP award, his fifth time finishing in the top-six in voting since 2017. Assuming that he is healthy going into Opening Day, Ramirez is a near-lock for 25 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a batting average of around .280. Expect him to continue to be the most underrated superstar in the league in 2023.

Shortstop, Amed Rosario

In 2022, Amed Rosario posted a career best 103 wRC+ while playing 153 games, 140 of which came at shortstop. He was at his best against left-handed pitching, with a .295 batting average and a .796 OPS, compared to a .279 batting average and a .691 OPS against right-handed hurlers. The biggest question mark offensively for Rosario entering 2023 is whether or not he can replicate league-average production, despite ranking in only the 39th percentile in average exit velocity and the 41st percentile in HardHit%.

His approach at the plate is flawed, to say the least. Among 134 players with at least 498 plate appearances last year, Rosario walked less frequently than everyone except for Luis Rengifo. Rosario swung at more pitches outside of the strike zone than everyon except for Nick Castellanos and Javier Baez.

Rosario also remains a mixed bag defensively at shortstop. He ranked in only the second percentile in outs average last year, but other defensive metrics were more kind to him. It is likely that Rosario’s bat regresses in 2023 – how much, we will find out.

Outfield, Steven Kwan

King Kwan, as he was commonly referred to in local northeast Ohio, saw 116 pitches to start his career before he suffered his first swing-and-miss, per Baseball Prospectus. Among hitters with at least 498 plate appearances in 2022, Kwan ranked 16th in pitches per plate appearance, ninth in O-Swing%, fourth in Z-Contact%, second in swinging-strike rate, and 12th in on-base percentage.

Said another way, Kwan worked pitchers into deep counts, rarely swung at pitches outside of the zone, made contact at an elite level on pitches inside the zone, almost never swung and miss, and got on base at a rate higher than players like Mike Trout, Alex Bregman, Manny Machado, and so on.

He also played Gold Glove defense in left field as a rookie, ranking in the 96th percentile in outs above average. Every team in baseball would love to have themselves a Steven Kwan.

Outfield, Myles Straw

Myles Straw was one of four Cleveland defenders to win a Gold Glove Award in 2022. Straw was particularly impressive in center field, ranking in the 100th percentile in outs above average at one of the most important positions on the diamond.

At the plate, it was a different story. Straw ranked in the 14th percentile or worse in average exit velocity, HardHit%, xwOBA, xSLG, and barrel percentage. His contact was so weak that he ended the year with only a .291 batting average, despite the fact that he walked 9.1% of the time and had one of the most mature approaches at the plate of any hitter in the league.

Among batters with at least 498 plate appearances, Straw ranked 10th in O-Swing% and fifth in Z-Contact%, meaning that he rarely chased bad pitches and almost always made contact on hittable offerings.

Nevertheles, the Guardians will put up with meager offensive output from Straw if he can continue playing defense at an elite level while being a threat to steal 25 bases.

Outfield, Oscar Gonzalez

Who… plays right field for Cleveland and rakes at the dish? Os-car Gon-zalez!

Gonzalez quickly became a fan favorite in northeast Ohio in 2022 by selecting the SpongeBob SquarePants theme song as his walk-up music, but he became a true hero, when he mercifully hit a walk-off home run in the AL Wild Card Round on October 8th to end a 15-inning game that lasted 4 hours and 57 minutes in frigid weather. Beer sales ceased in the seventh inning, so you know the celebration was genuine when 34,971 fans erupted as his dinger landed in the left field bleachers.

Gonzalez is far from an elite hitter, but he ranked in the 51st percentile in HardHit%, 93rd percentile in xBA, and the 46th percentile in barrel rate last summer. His contact ability, lack of patience at the plate, and insistence on swing at bad pitches limit his ceiling in terms of production, but he is one of the most fun entertainment options in the entire league. Cleveland fans will continue to rejoice when his name is announced before at-bats and the front office will be more than happy with league-average position in right field, an area where the team had a major void for the better part of a decade before his arrival.

Designated Hitter, Josh Naylor

Josh Naylor famously rocked the baby and called Gerrit Cole his “little (expletive) son” as he rounded the bases after hitting a home run off in Game 4 of the American League Division Series last October. It was a memorable moment of unbridled emotion for him and the Cleveland fan base after he hit 20 home runs and posted a 117 wRC+ during the regular season.

Overall, Naylor had his best offensive season to date in the big-leagues, playing a career-high 122 games following a gruesome season-ending ankle injury the year prior. He was especially dangerous against right-handed pitching, with a .283 batting average and an .856 OPS.

The addition of Josh Bell likely sends Naylor to the bench more often against southpaws, but he is more than productive enough to be a valuable asset for the Guardians in 2023.

Pitching Staff

Starting Pitcher:

Starting Pitcher, Shane Bieber

Shane Bieber, year after year, gives up far more hard contact than most people would deem possible for an “ace.” Yet, he did it again in 2023 – ranking in the 15th percentile in average exit velocity and the 14th percentile in HardHit% en route to another seventh-place finish in the American League Cy Young voting.

Bieber has lost nearly three miles per hour on his fastball compared to his 2020 peak, but his excellent command and high baseball IQ allow him to continue to thrive atop this Cleveland rotation. It certainly didn’t hurt that he had four gold glove winners playing defense behind him as well in 2023.

The more velocity that Bieber loses, the less room there is for error for him, but there is no reason to panic until there is reason to panic. In 2022, he had a 2.69 FIP against left-handed batters and a 3.02 FIP against right-handed batters. His strikeout rate may no longer be elite, but his run prevention metrics are still more than serviceable for the Guardians. Expect another strong season from him this summer.

Starting Pitcher, Triston McKenzie

At 6’5’’ and only 165 pounds, there were many analysts who questioned “(player-popup #triston-mckenzie)Triston McKenzie”:/players/triston-mckenzie-1452000’s ability to stick as a starter in the big leagues due to durability concerns. He quieted the vast majority of the doubters in 2022, throwing a career-high 191.1 innings – posting a 2.96 ERA, 3.54 xERA, and a 3.59 FIP. Among pitchers who made at least 20 starts and threw at least 100 innings, McKenzie ranked 30th out of 123 players in total pitches, proving that Cleveland was not shy about his usage each time he took the mound.

Durability questions aside, there are more legitimate questions as to whether or not McKenzie can replicate his 2.96 ERA in 2023. Among 140 pitchers who tossed at least 100 innings last year, he had the seventh-lowest BABIP, despite allowing an abundance of hard contact – ranking in the 10th percentile in average exit velocity, 26th percentile in HardHit%, and the 11th percentile in barrel percentage.

Sometimes a pitcher can maintain a lower BABIP if they generate an unusually high number of balls hit on the ground, but that was not the case for McKenzie either. Out of 140 pitchers who threw at least 100 innings, McKenzie ranked 135th in ground ball rate.

Having strong command and an elite defense behind him may help curb some of this expected regression, but McKenzie’s ERA likely ends up closer to 4.00 than 3.00 in 2023. Note: McKenzie will begin the season on the injured list due to a shoulder injury suffered in spring training).

Starting Pitcher, Cal Quantrill

Cal Quantrill has some of the least formidable raw stuff of any starting pitcher in baseball. His fastball velocity ranked in the 22nd percentile in 2022, and his spin rates were significantly worse than league average. He generates swings and misses more than only a handful of hurlers in the game, but somehow still managed to produce a 3.38 ERA, 4.31 xERA, and a 4.12 FIP last year across 186.1 innings.

It certainly helps that Cleveland has elite defense at nearly every position playing behind him, but it is nonetheless worth wondering how long Quantrill can continue outperforming his peripherals with a league-average ground ball rate and the inability to induce whiffs.

The Guardians will need him inexplicable success to continue in 2023 with McKenzie on the injured list to begin the campaign.

Starting Pitcher, Aaron Civale

The reality is that Aaron Civale has never actually been that good, but his impressive 2.34 ERA from his debut campaign in 2019 will always leave fans expecting more than he is able to give.

In 2022, Civale ended up on the injured list three separate times en route to a 4.92 ERA and a 4.31 FIP across 20 starts. He threw far more cutters and curveballs to left-handed batters compared to 2021, which helped him generate more swings and misses, but he ended up allowing even more traffic on the basepaths in these situations.

Civale’s biggest gains last year came from drastically more sinkers and curveballs against right-handed batters, improving from a 5.36 FIP and 15.9% strikeout rate against righties in 2021 to a 3.94 FIP and a 20.6% strikeout rate against them in 2022.

Ahead of Opening Day in 2023, there is optimism that Civale can be better than he was during his injury-riddled summer last year, but his ceiling is not that of an ace.

Starting Pitcher, Zach Plesac

Zach Plesac had another underwhelming season in 2022, ranking in the 23rd percentile in average exit velocity, 20th percentile in HardHit%, 15th percentile in strikeout rate, and 21st percentile in Whiff%. Per Baseball Prospectus, the Guardians won only nine of Plesac’s 24 starts – unsurprising, given his 4.31 ERA, 5.28 xERA, and 4.45 FIP.

Following a breakout 2020 campaign in which he had a 2.28 ERA and a 3.39 FIP, Plesac owns a 4.49 ERA and a 4.59 FIP across his last two seasons, spanning 274.1 innings. More concerning are his recurring anger issues, which have twice led to unforced trips to the injured list, costing him months of production for his team.

From time to time, certain teams will tolerate poor character if they desperately need the talent. Nothing about what Plesac provides from a talent perspective will keep him employed if he continues to throw fits on the mound and in the locker room. He is a serviceable backend starter for Cleveland, but he is not irreplaceable.

Bullpen:

Relief Pitcher, Emmanuel Clase

Emmanuel Clase is the best reliever in baseball, and it’s not particularly close. In 2022, he had a 1.36 ERA, 1.97 xERA, and a 1.98 FIP across 72.2 innings, saving 42 games for the Guardians. He had a 0.79 WHIP against left-handed batters and a 0.69 WHIP against right-handed batters.

He ranked in the 80th percentile or better in average exit velocity, HardHit%, xBA, xSLG, barrel percentage, strikeout percentage, walk rate, Whiff%, and chase rate. His cutter hits the zone at 100 mph with elite spin rates. Opposing batters had a .189 batting average against his cutter and a .119 batting average against his slider.

Good luck finding a negative thing to say about Clase going into 2023.

Relief Pitcher, James Karinchak

Cleveland fans love James Karinchak primarily because he is the closest thing northeast Ohio has had to the real-life version of the movie Major League. They also love him because he has some of the most unhittable stuff in the league. In 2022, he had a 2.08 ERA, 2.92 xERA, and a 2.29 FIP while striking out 38.8% of opposing hitters. His poor command can get him into trouble at times, but when he is right – there is little to no chance that the Guardians are allowing a run in the eighth or ninth inning with him and Clase at the backend of this bullpen.

Relief Pitcher, Trevor Stephan

Trevor Stephan is one of the best relievers in the league who nobody knows about. After posting an abysmal 4.41 ERA and a 5.49 FIP in his rookie season, Stephan dramatically increased his split-finger usage in 2022, leading to a dominant 2.69 ERA and a 2.19 FIP as a sophomore.

He still struggled with his command against lefties, but his 1.95 FIP and 0.97 WHIP against righties was elite. Similar to Clase, Stephan induced a ton of weak contact, generated an abundance of swings and misses, and had an extremely productive campaign. Expect more of the same in 2023 in this third season.

Relief Pitcher, Enyel De Los Santos

Entel De Los Santos had a 6.06 ERA and a 5.41 FIP across the first 65.1 innings of his big-league career. Last year, he had a 3.04 ERA and a 2.62 FIP with the Guardians in 53.1 innings.

One major benefit was having an elite defense behind him, which earned him more outs than he probably deserved, considering his sixth percentile ranking in average exit velocity and HardHit%. Still, his slider and changeup generated whiffs at a 35.0% clip or better for the season, making him a valued middle relief option for manager Tito Francona.

He struggles migthily with his command against left-handed hitters, but there are few arms more capable of getting outs against righties than De Los Santos. Used properly, he is an asset.

Relief Pitcher, Nick Sandlin

Nick Sandlin is one of the best fifth-best bullpen member in the league. On another team, he might be used in more high-leverage situations, but he is lower in the pecking order in a loaded Cleveland arm barn. Sandlin finished 2022 with a 2.25 ERA, 3.36 xERA, and a 3.68 FIP. He was dominant against right-handed batters, but struggled to a 4.50 FIP and a 1.61 WHIP against lefties. Similar to De Los Santos, Sandlin impressive results are tied to a manager knowing when is an appropriate time to insert him into a ballgame. Assuming he does not have undue exposure against lefties in 2023, he will have another fine season.

Cleveland Guardians – Futures Pick & Prediction

In the Terry Francona era, the Cleveland Guardians have an 845-671 – good for a 90-win pace across 10 seasons. In that span, the organization has posted a winning percentage good enough for an 87-win pace seven times, and they have never finished worse than 80-82.

There are question marks concerning the offense and starting rotation, but Cleveland’s elite defense, high-IQ baserunning, elite bullpen, and shrewd managerial decision-making is likely to have them contending for a playoff berth again in 2023. Take the over on their win total.

PICK: Over 86.5 wins (-115, DraftKings)

2023 Cleveland Guardians DFS Pick’em

About the Author

nickgalaida
Nick Galaida (nickgalaida)

A failed high school pitcher, Nick Galaida discovered that he has a higher aptitude for analyzing and writing about sports than he does playing them. To his friends, he is better known as “The Commish.” When he’s not organizing a fantasy league, placing a bet, or writing an article, he’s probably nose-deep in a book—further illustrating the point that his niche in this world is as a nerd rather than an athlete. Follow Nick on Twitter – @CommishFilmRoom