Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Monday, August 24th
Of course, on an abbreviated slate, Kluber and Lester would face off in the lone afternoon game, leaving the rest of us evening DFS players fighting for scraps. I’d expect a certain Mets pitcher to be nearly universally owned in cash games tonight, but YIKES, where to next? After combing through the wreckage from several different angles, thankfully it appears there might be some answers after deGrom tonight. Not many, but we’ll explain why there might be a few more decent or even good choices.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Editor’s Note: Robbie Ray has been scratched from tonight’s game. Jhoulys Chacin will start in his place.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Morgan | PHI | -4.9 | 5.3 | 5.71 | 0.57 | 1.01 | 5.28 | 5.84 | NYM | 84 | 92 | 169 | 16.4% | 5.9% | 20.1% | 10.8% | 8.8% |
| Buck Farmer | DET | 4.2 | 4.51 | 4.2 | 1.31 | 1.02 | 5.04 | 6.58 | CIN | 100 | 88 | 79 | 16.1% | 9.9% | 18.7% | 14.9% | 11.3% |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | -1.3 | 2.81 | 6.88 | 1.4 | 1.05 | 2.66 | 2.55 | CHC | 95 | 96 | 171 | 26.2% | 7.1% | 18.6% | 14.9% | 9.8% |
| Felix Doubront | OAK | -8.4 | 4.7 | 5.13 | 1.17 | 0.85 | 4.41 | 5.65 | SEA | 103 | 99 | 93 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 20.8% | 11.1% | 12.9% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | -2.9 | 3.05 | 6.52 | 1.85 | 0.85 | 3.03 | 3.46 | OAK | 91 | 97 | 95 | 19.7% | 5.8% | 19.2% | 10.7% | 8.9% |
| J.A. Happ | PIT | -3.4 | 4.08 | 5.6 | 1.09 | 1.01 | 4.26 | 3.71 | FLA | 84 | 104 | 104 | 19.5% | 7.5% | 20.2% | 10.7% | 10.7% |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 2 | 3.09 | 6.54 | 1.32 | 1.01 | 3.33 | 3.09 | PHI | 89 | 86 | 128 | 23.0% | 7.2% | 20.4% | 10.4% | 7.1% |
| Jeff Samardzija | CHW | -7.4 | 3.5 | 6.7 | 1.39 | 1.08 | 3.43 | 3.93 | BOS | 85 | 98 | 128 | 18.9% | 6.3% | 20.8% | 13.0% | 9.5% |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | -3.8 | 4.28 | 5.52 | 1.84 | 1.08 | 4.23 | 4.66 | CHW | 85 | 93 | 94 | 18.7% | 8.2% | 20.5% | 10.6% | 10.5% |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 4.1 | 3.22 | 6.6 | 1.29 | 1.05 | 2.98 | 3.29 | CLE | 91 | 99 | 107 | 23.0% | 8.4% | 22.6% | 13.6% | 11.0% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | -2.8 | 4.15 | 5.6 | 1.76 | 0.98 | 4.02 | 4.16 | ATL | 90 | 79 | 71 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 19.1% | 8.8% | 5.0% |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | -2.3 | 3.8 | 6.36 | 0.9 | 0.98 | 3.62 | 2.91 | COL | 82 | 96 | 99 | 23.3% | 6.2% | 20.4% | 11.0% | 8.5% |
| Keyvius Sampson | CIN | 3 | 4.49 | 4.78 | 1.17 | 1.02 | 3.33 | 5.33 | DET | 106 | 104 | 156 | 19.1% | 8.0% | 24.4% | 11.9% | 12.7% |
| Kris Medlen | KAN | 10.2 | 3.18 | 7. | 1.49 | 1.04 | 3.19 | 2.51 | BAL | 90 | 101 | 77 | 24.2% | 5.6% | 18.5% | 8.8% | 10.3% |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 1.7 | 3.71 | 6.02 | 1.19 | 1.09 | 3.52 | 5.1 | ARI | 99 | 96 | 102 | 21.3% | 8.8% | 21.0% | 10.0% | 8.4% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | -5.2 | 3.97 | 5.89 | 1.52 | 1.02 | 3.63 | 3.75 | HOU | 90 | 100 | 60 | 22.6% | 6.5% | 21.8% | 9.1% | 10.5% |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 3.2 | 4.19 | 5.43 | 0.96 | 1.09 | 4.16 | 5.54 | STL | 90 | 88 | 88 | 20.2% | 8.9% | 20.5% | 8.2% | 5.9% |
| Scott Feldman | HOU | -0.9 | 4.32 | 6.16 | 1.64 | 1.02 | 4.11 | 4.62 | NYY | 113 | 103 | 97 | 17.2% | 7.5% | 20.1% | 10.9% | 8.6% |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 4.3 | 4.4 | 5.92 | 1.21 | 1.01 | 3.91 | 5.67 | PIT | 92 | 100 | 112 | 18.8% | 7.7% | 19.7% | 9.8% | 5.7% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 7.7 | 3.8 | 5.74 | 1.38 | 1.04 | 4.13 | 3.93 | KAN | 107 | 104 | 90 | 19.2% | 8.7% | 22.5% | 13.1% | 8.7% |
Hisashi Iwakuma acquitted himself well in his first post-no-hitter start. He pitched seven innings of one run ball, striking out six and for those of us (me) who were concerned about previous pitch counts, he did it in just under 100 pitches. After a rough start to the season (nine HRs over four starts), he’s allowed just four HRs over his last eight starts. He has just an average K%, but an 18.0 K-BB% at home since last season due to a 2.5 BB% that helps contain his 16.4 HR/FB over that period at home. Thankfully, he’s generating over 50% ground balls and fewer than 30% ground balls over the last two seasons. Oakland strikes out just 17.9% vs RHP (15.3% over the last week), but hit for little power (8.8 HR/FB vs RHP, 5.3 HR/FB over the last week) and don’t make a lot of hard contact (5.0 Hard-Soft% vs RHP, 3.0 Hard-Soft% over the last week). They are a below average offense that becomes one of the top matchups tonight when accounting for park effects.
J.A. Happ is coming off two successful starts, but the more recent was due to some great BABIP fortune (.125 – though he did generate a lot of weak contact) after being above .400 in each of his first two Pirate starts and last three overall. His K% is up a bit in the NL, though he still has a near league average 11.4 K-BB% for the season. The Marlins are the worst home offense in the majors, but above average vs LHP (13.3 HR/FB), despite a 15.0 K-BB% and just 5.5 Hard-Soft%. This makes them an overall very neutral matchup tonight, which they remain as after little park adjustment for a near neutral run environment.
Jacob deGrom continues his run of dominance, allowing more than two ERs only once and never more than three since early May. He has a slightly depressed, though still great 18.1 K-BB% in his short career on the road when compared to his overall rate. He’s dominated Philly in two home starts this season (two ERs with 11 Ks over 13.2 IP), but faces them on the road for the first time. The Phillies are still the 4th worst offense on the road and 2nd worst vs RHP, but much improved since the break and have a 15.3 HR/FB over the last week. They represent a slightly favorable matchup in a near neutral park that plays more favorable for power than overall run environment.
Jeff Samardzija had a strong bounce back start his last time out. We saw and highlighted some potentially positive signs in his profile, which made him a high risk tournament play at that time that ended up paying off. We noted that the velocity and control were still on point as he followed up by walking just two and striking out seven of 31 Angels. His 15.1 K-BB% is 4 points higher than his road rate, but a 25.2 LD% and 11.8 HR/FB that are each a bit higher too this year. He’s generating a solid 6.8 Hard-Soft% this season that’s equal to his mark over the last two calendar years (another reason for optimism). The Red Sox are an average offense vs RHP, but strike out just 16.7% against them. They have been a poor road offense and though still strong, have cooled off a bit over the last week. They still represent a tough opponent in a very offensive environment that favors power hitters, especially under the right wind conditions.
Jorge de la Rosa walked six without somehow allowing a run at home in his last start, but is a below average pitcher, even on the road since last season (9.2 K-BB%, 12.0 HR/FB). He does, however, have a very favorable matchup tonight. Atlanta is a poor home team (7.9 HR/FB) and one of the worst offenses vs LHP (5.0 Hard-Soft%). People may cite their ability to make contact as a mark against the opposing pitcher, but they strike out 20.8% against LHP and have a 24.6 K% over the last week. This may be the top park adjusted matchup of the evening.
Julio Teheran has exhibited some massive home/road splits this year. His work at home is consistent what he’s done in the past and if you look at his splits page on fangraphs, all of his numbers are so much better at home this year, except for his 23.4 Hard-Soft%, which may be telling, or may just display the benefits of a big park, though it still seems fluky with as a fly ball pitcher with a reduced defense this year. I’d argue that Maybin and Markakis are quality defenders even if a step down from Heyward this season, but who isn’t. Perhaps the strongest point in his favor though, is the 3rd worst road offense in baseball. The Rockies an 18.5 K-BB% away from Coors this season. To put that into context, that’s the same K-BB% that Jon Lester has put up this year, which is good for 15th in the majors. The short version is that this is a favorable park adjusted matchup.
Kris Medlen gets his first start after posting a solid 16.4 K-BB% out of the bullpen for 14 innings. Of course, we have to downgrade those numbers, but he has gone at least three innings in two of his last three appearances, so should be good for five tonight and has some favorable circumstances for a neutral batted ball profile in Kansas City with that great defense. His velocity has played up a bit from the pen, which should keep it constant with previous career rates in a starting role. Baltimore strikes out 23.5% on the road and 22.1% vs RHP. They have a 14.7 HR/FB vs RHP, but that power is likely to be challenged in this environment, though it still plays towards offense in overall run environment, making it a fairly neutral overall matchup. However, considering the inherent characteristics of the visiting offense possibly not taken into account here, the edge likely goes to the pitcher under these specific circumstances here.
Nathan Eovaldi at home against the Astros sounds like a dangerous matchup, but he’s been pitching well over the last two months now and has seen a remarkably large change in his batted ball profile, if not as much of one in his K%, though it’s risen slightly over the last month. His 51.6 GB% is by far a career high with a previous high of 45.5%. This is no doubt a conscious change in a difficult park. His 6.9 Hard-Soft% is also a career best and less than half his career mark. He’s allowed just two HRs over his last eight home starts. That may not be a sustainable effort, but shows potential improvement thanks to the much greater GB rate. The Astros have power, but strike out 24.2% vs RHP and have been cold (31.0 K% over the last week).
Ubaldo Jimenez is very hit or miss as you most likely know, but has struck out exactly six in each of his last three starts. That would lead you to believe he’s in line for something less in Kansas City tonight, who strike out 14.2% at home and 15.6% vs RHP, but have just a 7.5 HR/FB at home and combined. It’s still not a particularly favorable matchup, but contact authority rates are slightly below average (good for the pitcher) on both sides of this thing.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized
Lance Lynn (.319 BABIP – 78.0 LOB% – 7.4 HR/FB) – I rarely quibble with his HR rate at home, especially in the cooler months, but this is not a good spot to pay up for a pitcher who relies on HR suppression and strand rate to be much above average. In one of his last five starts, he was lit up at home and didn’t make it out of the first inning. In the other four, he’s walked at least three.
Editor’s Note: Robbie Ray has been scratched from tonight’s game. Jhoulys Chacin will start in his place.
Robbie Ray (.304 BABIP – 71.7 LOB% – 6.1 HR/FB) – If we’re skeptical of Lynn’s HR suppression abilities holding up in Arizona tonight, we’re completely flabbergasted that this guy has done it all along with a 23.2 Hard-Soft% to boot.
Adam Morgan (.261 BABIP – 77.8 LOB% – 9.4 HR/FB) – Although, there is some upside in his SwStr rate, as you can see in that chart below, he has a 0.57 GB/FB with a 15.3 Hard-Soft% in a pretty rough park, so his 9.4 HR/FB actually has worked out to 9 HRs over 57.1 IP (235 BF).
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Joe Kelly is coming off three decent starts, but struck out and walked three each in his last one and has a history of being Joe Kelly, with a 14.8 HR/FB on the road since last season with a 10.4 BB%.
Tom Koehler – BABIP regression sure has begun to kick his ass over the last month.
Keyvius Sampson can’t overcome the slight boost he gets for benching the DH in an NL park, plus the fact that Detroit is flying in for a single make-up game that drove me nuts for 10 minutes because I couldn’t find it on the schedule and had to add it manually, but that’s a different and non-relevant rant.
Scott Feldman – A low K% plus Yankee Stadium equals a low ceiling with a floor that could drop out from under him.
Buck Farmer – I’m not sure if he’s even had a positive major league outing this year, either starting or in relief.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Morgan | Phillies | 12.3% | 6.0% | Home | 13.6% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 8.9% | 0.0% |
| Buck Farmer | Tigers | 15.9% | 9.2% | Road | 14.5% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 5.3% | 15.8% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 27.3% | 5.2% | Road | 28.9% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 3.6% |
| Felix Doubront | Athletics | 14.8% | 9.2% | Road | 12.5% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 14.0% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | 21.4% | 3.6% | Home | 20.5% | 2.5% | L14 Days | 23.6% | 7.3% |
| J.A. Happ | Pirates | 19.2% | 7.7% | Road | 17.3% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 6.8% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 26.1% | 6.2% | Road | 25.0% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 29.1% | 9.1% |
| Jeff Samardzija | White Sox | 20.9% | 5.2% | Home | 21.0% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 20.3% | 6.8% |
| Joe Kelly | Red Sox | 16.6% | 8.9% | Road | 17.1% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 10.4% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 24.4% | 5.9% | Home | 25.6% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 31.1% | 11.1% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | 18.9% | 9.7% | Road | 18.5% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 26.0% | 16.0% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 21.2% | 6.9% | Home | 22.2% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 31.1% | 6.7% |
| Keyvius Sampson | Reds | 18.7% | 9.9% | Home | 22.7% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 11.6% | 11.6% |
| Kris Medlen | Royals | 23.3% | 5.8% | Home | 28.0% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 3.9% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | 22.8% | 8.4% | Road | 24.4% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 12.8% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Yankees | 17.0% | 5.9% | Home | 17.5% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 9.4% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 19.0% | 7.6% | Home | 19.3% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 13.3% |
| Scott Feldman | Astros | 14.2% | 6.6% | Road | 14.9% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 11.3% | 5.7% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | 17.4% | 8.8% | Home | 19.7% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 9.3% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | 23.3% | 9.8% | Road | 22.0% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 26.1% | 13.0% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | Road | 22.2% | 6.7% | LH | 23.8% | 7.3% | L7Days | 17.8% | 8.4% |
| Reds | Home | 19.0% | 8.8% | RH | 19.4% | 7.9% | L7Days | 22.7% | 8.8% |
| Cubs | Home | 23.6% | 9.6% | RH | 23.9% | 9.0% | L7Days | 22.0% | 10.2% |
| Mariners | Home | 23.3% | 8.0% | LH | 21.9% | 6.2% | L7Days | 28.6% | 8.2% |
| Athletics | Road | 19.4% | 7.7% | RH | 17.9% | 7.2% | L7Days | 15.2% | 6.5% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.5% | 7.0% | LH | 21.5% | 6.5% | L7Days | 16.9% | 9.0% |
| Phillies | Home | 18.9% | 6.4% | RH | 19.6% | 5.7% | L7Days | 19.4% | 8.6% |
| Red Sox | Road | 17.8% | 7.9% | RH | 16.7% | 7.5% | L7Days | 16.4% | 5.3% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.5% | 6.9% | RH | 20.3% | 6.3% | L7Days | 17.9% | 6.3% |
| Indians | Road | 18.8% | 8.7% | LH | 18.7% | 9.2% | L7Days | 19.6% | 9.8% |
| Braves | Home | 18.2% | 8.3% | LH | 20.8% | 8.0% | L7Days | 24.6% | 5.4% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.3% | 5.8% | RH | 20.4% | 6.2% | L7Days | 20.5% | 4.9% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.3% | 7.1% | RH | 20.0% | 6.7% | L7Days | 19.3% | 6.1% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.5% | 6.3% | RH | 22.1% | 6.9% | L7Days | 21.1% | 6.8% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.0% | 8.2% | RH | 21.0% | 7.6% | L7Days | 20.6% | 6.8% |
| Astros | Road | 23.1% | 7.4% | RH | 24.2% | 7.4% | L7Days | 31.0% | 3.7% |
| Cardinals | Road | 22.2% | 7.4% | LH | 22.8% | 8.8% | L7Days | 26.8% | 8.6% |
| Yankees | Home | 19.7% | 8.9% | RH | 19.5% | 8.2% | L7Days | 23.7% | 8.0% |
| Pirates | Road | 22.4% | 6.6% | RH | 20.6% | 6.9% | L7Days | 21.5% | 6.9% |
| Royals | Home | 14.2% | 6.7% | RH | 15.6% | 6.2% | L7Days | 13.8% | 5.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Morgan | Phillies | 18.4% | 9.4% | 9.4% | Home | 24.7% | 6.8% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 10.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% |
| Buck Farmer | Tigers | 13.4% | 19.0% | 4.8% | Road | 14.8% | 21.4% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 21.9% | 8.9% | 9.9% | Road | 22.4% | 8.7% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 9.3% | 17.2% | 6.9% |
| Felix Doubront | Athletics | 19.8% | 9.2% | 13.2% | Road | 23.1% | 5.2% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 8.6% | 4.8% | 23.8% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | 19.7% | 13.7% | 8.5% | Home | 18.3% | 16.4% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 13.2% | 7.7% | 7.7% |
| J.A. Happ | Pirates | 21.5% | 11.1% | 10.3% | Road | 23.0% | 11.4% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 20.7% | 8.3% | 16.7% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 21.6% | 7.5% | 8.6% | Road | 19.0% | 9.7% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 16.1% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| Jeff Samardzija | White Sox | 20.5% | 11.5% | 10.3% | Home | 20.3% | 11.7% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 20.9% | 25.0% | 6.3% |
| Joe Kelly | Red Sox | 22.2% | 11.2% | 7.0% | Road | 19.8% | 14.8% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 17.6% | 6.7% | 13.3% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 20.7% | 7.8% | 12.3% | Home | 21.3% | 7.0% | 12.0% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 33.3% | 11.1% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | 18.8% | 13.6% | 7.0% | Road | 18.4% | 12.0% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 13.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 22.7% | 9.8% | 11.1% | Home | 21.0% | 7.0% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% |
| Keyvius Sampson | Reds | 23.1% | 8.7% | 21.7% | Home | 22.6% | 11.1% | 22.2% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Kris Medlen | Royals | 24.0% | 3.9% | 7.8% | Home | 0.0% | 12.5% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 0.0% | 16.7% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | 20.9% | 7.3% | 11.4% | Road | 23.6% | 9.4% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Yankees | 22.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | Home | 21.7% | 7.5% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 21.3% | 7.8% | 5.7% | Home | 22.2% | 8.7% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 17.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Feldman | Astros | 22.5% | 10.9% | 7.6% | Road | 23.8% | 7.9% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 15.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | 18.3% | 9.0% | 6.6% | Home | 18.7% | 7.3% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 10.0% | 5.0% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | 22.8% | 10.9% | 11.3% | Road | 23.6% | 13.2% | 14.9% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 28.6% | 0.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | Road | 23.2% | 8.7% | 10.7% | LH | 21.3% | 11.8% | 9.7% | L7Days | 23.2% | 20.0% | 6.0% |
| Reds | Home | 23.2% | 12.2% | 9.3% | RH | 21.0% | 9.8% | 9.4% | L7Days | 26.3% | 6.8% | 16.9% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.1% | 12.5% | 11.0% | RH | 20.0% | 12.5% | 9.7% | L7Days | 16.6% | 29.8% | 10.5% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.8% | 12.0% | 7.9% | LH | 21.9% | 13.6% | 10.7% | L7Days | 29.5% | 21.7% | 8.7% |
| Athletics | Road | 20.6% | 10.4% | 8.5% | RH | 20.6% | 8.8% | 9.6% | L7Days | 23.0% | 7.1% | 12.5% |
| Marlins | Home | 18.2% | 9.3% | 8.6% | LH | 20.7% | 13.3% | 8.1% | L7Days | 16.8% | 10.7% | 10.7% |
| Phillies | Home | 21.9% | 9.8% | 8.6% | RH | 22.6% | 8.8% | 8.7% | L7Days | 21.3% | 15.3% | 10.2% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.6% | 9.0% | 11.7% | RH | 20.5% | 9.7% | 10.5% | L7Days | 23.0% | 10.8% | 7.7% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.4% | 12.0% | 9.2% | RH | 21.4% | 11.4% | 9.7% | L7Days | 20.7% | 7.7% | 13.5% |
| Indians | Road | 20.6% | 10.2% | 10.5% | LH | 23.6% | 7.7% | 6.5% | L7Days | 24.5% | 15.7% | 13.7% |
| Braves | Home | 21.1% | 7.9% | 9.0% | LH | 20.7% | 8.9% | 6.4% | L7Days | 22.0% | 10.5% | 0.0% |
| Rockies | Road | 20.2% | 12.7% | 9.8% | RH | 21.2% | 14.4% | 9.0% | L7Days | 18.6% | 15.0% | 5.0% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.7% | 12.4% | 7.6% | RH | 21.8% | 10.5% | 8.6% | L7Days | 28.7% | 16.4% | 3.6% |
| Orioles | Road | 20.9% | 11.9% | 10.7% | RH | 20.7% | 14.7% | 9.2% | L7Days | 17.5% | 9.8% | 4.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 22.0% | 10.0% | 8.0% | RH | 21.7% | 10.3% | 9.1% | L7Days | 21.1% | 14.1% | 9.4% |
| Astros | Road | 21.6% | 11.1% | 11.5% | RH | 19.9% | 14.8% | 11.6% | L7Days | 16.0% | 14.0% | 12.3% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.7% | 11.0% | 10.8% | LH | 20.1% | 10.3% | 10.0% | L7Days | 20.3% | 11.4% | 4.5% |
| Yankees | Home | 19.3% | 14.4% | 11.2% | RH | 20.8% | 13.5% | 9.0% | L7Days | 18.4% | 11.4% | 8.6% |
| Pirates | Road | 21.1% | 9.4% | 7.8% | RH | 21.0% | 10.2% | 6.7% | L7Days | 22.1% | 13.0% | 2.9% |
| Royals | Home | 21.3% | 7.5% | 8.8% | RH | 21.5% | 8.8% | 9.7% | L7Days | 20.6% | 9.4% | 7.5% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.8 SwStr% – 2.06 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Morgan | PHI | 12.3% | 9.4% | 1.31 | 9.3% | 8.5% | 1.09 |
| Buck Farmer | DET | 12.7% | 8.2% | 1.55 | 5.7% | 6.5% | 0.88 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 27.3% | 12.7% | 2.15 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 2.37 |
| Felix Doubront | OAK | 15.4% | 8.9% | 1.73 | 18.8% | 10.9% | 1.72 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.03 | 22.9% | 10.8% | 2.12 |
| J.A. Happ | PIT | 18.3% | 7.4% | 2.47 | 20.6% | 8.2% | 2.51 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 26.6% | 12.2% | 2.18 | 29.0% | 12.6% | 2.30 |
| Jeff Samardzija | CHW | 17.7% | 10.0% | 1.77 | 13.6% | 8.6% | 1.58 |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | 19.1% | 7.6% | 2.51 | 20.9% | 9.2% | 2.27 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 24.8% | 10.4% | 2.38 | 29.4% | 11.7% | 2.51 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 21.2% | 11.8% | 1.80 | 16.8% | 11.4% | 1.47 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 20.6% | 10.9% | 1.89 | 22.6% | 11.0% | 2.05 |
| Keyvius Sampson | CIN | 18.7% | 7.9% | 2.37 | 18.7% | 7.9% | 2.37 |
| Kris Medlen | KAN | 25.5% | 8.0% | 3.19 | 27.3% | 8.0% | 3.41 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 24.8% | 9.7% | 2.56 | 19.8% | 10.5% | 1.89 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 16.9% | 8.3% | 2.04 | 18.3% | 8.7% | 2.10 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 20.8% | 8.0% | 2.60 | 21.3% | 10.3% | 2.07 |
| Scott Feldman | HOU | 13.0% | 6.9% | 1.88 | 10.9% | 7.1% | 1.54 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 16.6% | 7.0% | 2.37 | 14.6% | 8.4% | 1.74 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 22.0% | 8.5% | 2.59 | 18.4% | 7.9% | 2.33 |
Jeff Samardzija had both a slightly above average K% and SwStr% after we noted that he is still missing bats despite a below average K% and even further drop over the last month. Those conditions still exist in addition to a lower SwStr% over the last month, but a double digit mark in each of his last two starts now, another reason to be optimistic.
Jorge de la Rosa – Although his K% is down over the last month, his SwStr% is still strong and in fact, he’s struck out 13 of his last 50 batters, so that issue seems to have been resolved.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.85 ERA – 3.78 SIERA – 3.85 xFIP – 3.85 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Morgan | PHI | 3.92 | 5.29 | 1.37 | 5.4 | 1.48 | 5.04 | 1.12 | 3.6 | 5.84 | 2.24 | 5.58 | 1.98 | 4.82 | 1.22 |
| Buck Farmer | DET | 8.39 | 4.69 | -3.7 | 5.12 | -3.27 | 6.65 | -1.74 | 7.36 | 5.57 | -1.79 | 6.32 | -1.04 | 7.12 | -0.24 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 3.52 | 2.91 | -0.61 | 2.95 | -0.57 | 2.82 | -0.7 | 3.94 | 3.17 | -0.77 | 3.4 | -0.54 | 3.69 | -0.25 |
| Felix Doubront | OAK | 3.89 | 4.05 | 0.16 | 4.21 | 0.32 | 3.45 | -0.44 | 3.48 | 4.37 | 0.89 | 4.62 | 1.14 | 3.51 | 0.03 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 3.74 | 3.34 | -0.4 | 3.3 | -0.44 | 4.17 | 0.43 | 2.89 | 3.03 | 0.14 | 3.05 | 0.16 | 3.01 | 0.12 |
| J.A. Happ | PIT | 4.42 | 4.14 | -0.28 | 4.01 | -0.41 | 3.95 | -0.47 | 5.82 | 4.15 | -1.67 | 4.1 | -1.72 | 5.11 | -0.71 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 1.98 | 3 | 1.02 | 2.98 | 1 | 2.69 | 0.71 | 1.3 | 2.82 | 1.52 | 2.74 | 1.44 | 2.75 | 1.45 |
| Jeff Samardzija | CHW | 4.64 | 4.06 | -0.58 | 4.12 | -0.52 | 4.02 | -0.62 | 8.01 | 4.73 | -3.28 | 4.85 | -3.16 | 6.05 | -1.96 |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | 5.37 | 4.2 | -1.17 | 4.09 | -1.28 | 4.27 | -1.1 | 4.21 | 3.88 | -0.33 | 3.93 | -0.28 | 3.43 | -0.78 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 3.58 | 3.22 | -0.36 | 3.1 | -0.48 | 3.15 | -0.43 | 4.4 | 2.78 | -1.62 | 2.71 | -1.69 | 3.28 | -1.12 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 4.5 | 4.17 | -0.33 | 3.93 | -0.57 | 4.25 | -0.25 | 4.13 | 4.31 | 0.18 | 4.04 | -0.09 | 3.44 | -0.69 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 4.32 | 4.1 | -0.22 | 4.06 | -0.26 | 4.27 | -0.05 | 3.64 | 3.67 | 0.03 | 3.9 | 0.26 | 3.66 | 0.02 |
| Keyvius Sampson | CIN | 4.43 | 4.48 | 0.05 | 4.4 | -0.03 | 4.05 | -0.38 | 4.43 | 4.49 | 0.06 | 4.4 | -0.03 | 4.05 | -0.38 |
| Kris Medlen | KAN | 2.51 | 3.23 | 0.72 | 3.42 | 0.91 | 3.12 | 0.61 | 0 | 3.06 | 3.06 | 3.24 | 3.24 | 2.12 | 2.12 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 2.94 | 3.63 | 0.69 | 3.65 | 0.71 | 3.17 | 0.23 | 3.55 | 4.72 | 1.17 | 5.01 | 1.46 | 5.02 | 1.47 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 4.24 | 4.01 | -0.23 | 3.82 | -0.42 | 3.53 | -0.71 | 3.62 | 3.99 | 0.37 | 3.79 | 0.17 | 3.4 | -0.22 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 3.38 | 3.98 | 0.6 | 4.02 | 0.64 | 3.3 | -0.08 | 4.76 | 4.04 | -0.72 | 3.93 | -0.83 | 4.6 | -0.16 |
| Scott Feldman | HOU | 4.05 | 4.33 | 0.28 | 3.98 | -0.07 | 4.31 | 0.26 | 2.25 | 4.51 | 2.26 | 4.29 | 2.04 | 4.03 | 1.78 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 4.02 | 4.54 | 0.52 | 4.5 | 0.48 | 4.48 | 0.46 | 7.48 | 4.83 | -2.65 | 4.97 | -2.51 | 4.93 | -2.55 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 3.97 | 3.71 | -0.26 | 3.58 | -0.39 | 3.94 | -0.03 | 4.55 | 4.01 | -0.54 | 4 | -0.55 | 4.74 | 0.19 |
Jacob deGrom is generating a .244 BABIP and 82.7 LOB% (4th in the majors). His chart indicators are close enough to average with a near neutral GB/FB profile and normal LD rate. His 6.8 Hard-Soft% is better than average and the Mets have done a good job in suppressing BABIP as a team. This profile suggests a BABIP some 30 or more points higher. So, obviously, some adjustment is expected in these areas, but he’s having a great sophomore campaign.
Jeff Samardzija – We took a lot of time and space noting several things last time out, including increased use of his slider over the last month and his cutter overall this season. There was also a potential sequencing issue resulting in a 67.8 LOB% despite normal BABIP and HR rates. Interestingly, he went out and stranded 100% of his runners in his last start. This was all further reason to believe a lot of his problems were fixable enough to a useful pitcher, if not as good as he was previously believed to be (although, I never thought he was much more than a good number two at best). Anyway, there are things in his profile that suggest he can find improvement the remainder of the season, but he’s probably torpedoed his chances at a big free agent contract this season. It’s just strange to see such decline in a pitcher coming under Don Cooper’s tutelage, who’s become a recognized and favored pitching coach of the saber community in recent years.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%)
Last year, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if you have a pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it may be onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Morgan | PHI | 0.317 | 0.261 | -0.056 | 9.4% | 88.0% |
| Buck Farmer | DET | 0.300 | 0.357 | 0.057 | 7.1% | 87.4% |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 0.293 | 0.299 | 0.006 | 7.6% | 86.0% |
| Felix Doubront | OAK | 0.281 | 0.320 | 0.039 | 17.9% | 89.4% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 0.296 | 0.242 | -0.054 | 7.1% | 91.6% |
| J.A. Happ | PIT | 0.303 | 0.326 | 0.023 | 13.6% | 88.0% |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 0.282 | 0.244 | -0.038 | 9.3% | 85.3% |
| Jeff Samardzija | CHW | 0.313 | 0.301 | -0.012 | 10.4% | 86.9% |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | 0.307 | 0.327 | 0.02 | 6.7% | 91.5% |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 0.295 | 0.318 | 0.023 | 8.3% | 86.2% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 0.317 | 0.289 | -0.028 | 4.3% | 86.3% |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.306 | 0.302 | -0.004 | 11.3% | 84.9% |
| Keyvius Sampson | CIN | 0.286 | 0.302 | 0.016 | 21.7% | 88.2% |
| Kris Medlen | KAN | 0.281 | 0.257 | -0.024 | 8.3% | 90.2% |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 0.291 | 0.319 | 0.028 | 11.0% | 86.6% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 0.298 | 0.337 | 0.039 | 6.8% | 88.3% |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 0.293 | 0.304 | 0.011 | 5.1% | 88.7% |
| Scott Feldman | HOU | 0.283 | 0.294 | 0.011 | 7.0% | 91.1% |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 0.293 | 0.266 | -0.027 | 6.5% | 90.4% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 0.291 | 0.308 | 0.017 | 13.5% | 88.8% |
Hisashi Iwakuma does not exhibit any unique traits aside from a low LD rate (16.5%) that’s below his 19.1% career mark. In fact, he shows some below average traits in the BABIP chart and allows harder than average contact (13.4 Hard-Soft%), although that likely shows up more in his HR rate. He has a .267 career BABIP, just over .270 to start the season, which is still quite good, but is probably in for some regression for the rest of the season.
Jorge de la Rosa exhibits no characteristics of a below average BABIP and in fact, it’s not that below average as much as his defense is tied for the worst BABIP allowed in the majors. His career mark is .298.
Nathan Eovaldi is likely suffering from some ground ball-itis in his BABIP. It’s about 20 points higher than his career rate despite the improved batted ball profile. His contact authority rates are improved, though not elite and the Yankee defense has been less than advertised, though they’ve allowed a league average BABIP. None of his indicators or stats really stick out, so he’s probably in line for a slight adjustment in his favor here, which should help push his ERA closer to league average.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Kris Medlen (4) – I guess I’m more specifically referring to his lower DraftKings price, though he’s low enough to be useful on FanDuel and other sites as well. He should be able to give his team five quality innings in a good park with a great defense behind him, against a team that should increase his strikeout rate.
Value Tier Two
Hisashi Iwakuma (1t) is the 2nd highest priced pitcher tonight, but well behind the top spot. His HR problem may not be solved, but we can at least call it contained over the last couple of months. The A’s might not strike out much, but don’t make a lot of hard contact either and shouldn’t do much damage here even if they hurt his K% a little.
Value Tier Three
Julio Teheran (3) looks like the same pitcher at home. The high rate of hard contact is disturbing, but you can find something to complain about nearly everywhere tonight. He’s been largely equaled his performance from last season in Atlanta and faces an inflated strikeout rate and terrible road offense. Unfortunately, he’s priced nearly as if he’s performing just as well as last season.
Nathan Eovaldi has to beware the power of the mighty Astros with a short RF porch, but that’s likely under-inflated his price tag tonight. He’s been pitching well, more due to a strong ground ball rate than a much increased strikeout one, but should see a bump in that tonight. Again though, his DraftKings price is more notably exploitable.
Jacob deGrom (1t) costs quite a bit tonight and gets a bit of a downgrade in park effects against an offense that has improved. Take him in cash games if you can afford him, but I think Iwakuma gives you a similar enough overall effort at a lower cost if you need to drop down.
Jeff Samardzija – Once again, prices differ greatly on DraftKings and FanDuel. He showed some bounce back in his last start and there are enough positive signs to think he can generate some positive value against a poor road team here, although the Red Sox seem to be a different everything this month than they had been for most of the season.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Jorge de la Rosa
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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