Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, April 3rd

by Matt Trollo (MTro86) Last Updated 2017-04-04 02:05:53

I’m thrilled to be back writing about pitching again this year for RotoGrinders. When I started doing this around five years ago for a now defunct site, it felt new looking for an edge with rarely used stats like SIERA, SwStr% and even K%, while most people were still using traditional counting stats. However, now it seems like saber stats are common place, especially in DFS, while the only person still counting Wins and Saves is Harold Reynolds. While I know you’re all here for the actual pitching, info, bear with me for a longer than normal introduction about some changes and the intended direction of this piece going forward.

This off-season, I felt the need to evolve and differentiate more from other pitching articles. While it would be silly to abandon tried and true stuff just to be different, recent innovations like Statcast give us the opportunity to do just that.

It might not be this first article because I was a little late sending the template off to be prettied up, but sometime this week, we’re going to be including a few new things for this year. This includes some pertinent Statcast stuff like Exit Velocity and Barrels (by BBE and PA). You’ll also see Baseball Prospectus’s DRA (Deserved Run Average), which has been gaining popularity over the last year. Just don’t ask me to explain DRA because they’re keeping a tight lid on the secret sauce, but you can read more about it right here.

In addition, I’m considering changing the methodology of this article slightly. Instead of lightly to moderately noting every pitcher on the board resulting in a large article, I’ve been keeping notes a bit differently this off-season and think I could better serve the readership by going more into depth on just a few interesting pitchers each day. You don’t need paragraphs about how great Clayton Kershaw is (though you may get that today). Eventually, most pitchers will be covered and we’ll be able to link back to articles where certain pitchers were recently talked about in depth, although we’ll keep with the traditional format to start with today.

A glossary, if not explaining all of the stats used in this article, then at least pointing to where you can learn more about them (usually Fangraphs) is also in the current plan.

One last thing to note, after I’ve already said “finally”, is the important change in scoring for pitchers on FanDuel. It’s effect is really minimal on an article like this which rarely chased Wins, but it could have a major impact on DFS game results, as the Win has been de-emphasize, now counting about the same as it does on DraftKings, in favor of the Quality Start. It’s not perfect, but something the pitcher is more in control of than the Win. Hopefully, this will keep some of those decent (but not great) pitchers who run up the W’s more reasonably priced this year. (Yes, I’m looking at you Rick Porcello!)

As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.

Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.

Starting Pitching Main Chart

We’re using Seamheads.com three year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2016 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.

One important note here is that there obviously aren’t any stats yet for the 2017 season, so we’re still using some 2016 stats to start the season this week (even if it says 2017). Stats for the last seven, 14 or 30 days are also from the end of last season and should probably be largely ignored. They’re essentially filling in blank spaces right now. Also, we’re still using last year’s park factors as I’ve yet to find an updated site with multi-year factors. Feel free to leave a message if you know of one.

Clayton Kershaw is pretty good. I know I just said you didn’t need me to spout off about him, but I will anyway, just today. He has the top SIERA on today’s board over the last two years (2.30), the most IP/Start (7.06), highest GB rate (49.8%). He has the top K% (31.6) and SwStr% (15.3) on the board from last season with nearly a 30% K-BB over the last two seasons. His 87.3 mph EV (Exit Velocity) last year was tops on today’s board and his 2.9% Barrels/PA was third behind Syndergaard and Cole. The Padres struck out 25.3% of the time against LHP last year with just a 78 wRC+ on the road and while they may have some young talent in that lineup, they currently boast just one strong established RHP (Myers). They did do well with a 14.9 HR/FB vs LHP with a reasonable 32.5 Hard%. While Dodger Stadium has been more favorable towards power in recent seasons, it’s still squarely one of the most pitcher friendly run environments in the game.

Danny Duffy broke out last year, finishing with a 25.7 K% (12.9 SwStr%), 20.0 K-BB% and an ERA with estimators right around three and a half. He was a bargain at low prices during his ascent, but began to fade a bit down the stretch and became a bit over-priced during the latter part of the season. He struck out more than six batters in just three of his last 11 starts with just a league average 20.7 K% over that span. He also allowed a lot of hard contact (40.2 Hard% last 11 starts with 14 HRs). On the season, he had a 90.2 mph aEV and a board worst 8.5% Barrels/BBE and 5.1% Barrels/PA. All 14 of those HRs were surrendered to RHBs. The Twins should be a below average offense once again. They do have a couple of RH hammers, but they also struck out 24.3% of the time against southpaws and it’s generally pretty damn COLD in Minnesota in early April.

Ervin Santana isn’t terrible. He might be about a league average pitcher. He’s kept his HR rate below 10% of fly balls since moving to Minnesota, which is quite the feat considering last year’s league-wide boom, which has kept his ERA a bit below his estimators. Most favorable for him today is what’s expected to be a poor Kansas City offense in an environment that hinders LH power and should do so even more under difficult weather conditions. It’s not the same KC offense, but they struck out at a league average rate last year, while still failing to walk or hit with much power against RHP (9.6 HR/FB).

Jeremy Hellickson did find the second highest rate of barrels per plate appearance (4.7%) on today’s board, which led to 24 HRs, but he didn’t otherwise allow a lot of hard contact (25.9%) and was a bit better than league average with a 14.1 K-BB%. The Reds do have a couple of bats with some power in a power friendly park, but should be one of the less potent offenses in the league overall.

Jon Gray had the fifth highest strikeout rate (26%) on the board for last season. The Brewers might be a more interesting offense this year, but they’re still likely to strike out a ton again. They did so 25.8% of the time against RHP last year. Despite one of the more run friendly environments in play today, any road trip is a significant upgrade for Colorado pitchers. He did leave a recent start with a foot injury. It’s not expected to be an issue or they probably wouldn’t have him on the mound here, but it’s still worth consideration.

Julio Teheran has generated ground balls at a clip (39.3%) higher than only three of today’s other pitchers over the past two seasons. The Mets generated the second most fly balls (38.5%) in baseball last year. In four starts against the Mets last season, all in June or later, he went 30 innings, allowing just three runs, though with just 18 strikeouts (just four in his last two starts). He only generated three popups in those four starts, but held New York to a hard hit rate under 30% in three of them. Maybe he helps prove the theory that fly ball hitters are better against ground ball pitchers. While his ERA estimators were all quite a bit higher than his 3.21 ERA, his career low .260 BABIP was only 15 lower than his career mark.

Justin Verlander had quite the renaissance last season and despite his xFIP being three quarters of a run above his ERA, his Baseball Prospectus DRA was actually a quarter of a run lower. He was one of just eight qualified pitchers with a K-BB above 20%. However, a career high 47.7% of his contact came in the air last season (seventh highest in baseball), ensuring that even a reasonable 10.9 HR/FB (also a career high by the way) led to a career high 30 HRs. When you also post career high strikeout (28.1%) and swinging strike rates (12%), occasional contact issues might be overlooked. He did meet the barrel of the bat on 4.5% of PAs last year though, fifth highest on today’s board, while his 7.8% Barrels/BBE was third highest. He should have one of the top matchups facing rebuilding White Sox.

Noah Syndergaard has a 2.95 SIERA over the last two years (second lowest on the board) with a 49 GB% (second highest). Last year, he struck out 29.3% of batters with a board low 1.9% Barrels/PA and 3.3% Barrels/BBE, along with just an 87.9 mph aEV. A poor defense helped lead to a .334 BABIP, however. We know about his issues with runners, but he still kept a 2.60 ERA in line with his estimators. One concern, and probably the only one, is that the Braves are a high contact team, which could cause a problem with this defense, but they still did strike out 19.7% of the time vs RHP last year.

Stephen Strasburg ran a career high 30.6 K% last year, though it was just 1.6 points higher than his career average and while his 11.0 SwStr% might make that look like an outlier, he does have a career 2.59 K/SwStr. The 3.60 ERA was a career high, but his estimators were all more impressive and even his .294 BABIP was below his career average. He actually generated a career low rate of hard contact (26.6%). He’s actually considering pitching out of the stretch full time because he feels he’s better able to repeat his mechanics that way, though I can’t discern a major difference in results either way. The end result should be good against a Miami offense that had a deceptively low 19.0 K% vs RHP, but that was without Stanton for a good chunk of the season. They also were well below average vs RHP with just 91 wRC+ and 9.8 HR/FB (again, probably due to the absence of Stanton).

NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)

This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.

League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)

Rick Porcello (.269 – 74.3% – 9.3) had a career high 17.6 K-BB% and solid estimators under four last year, but really had everything fall in line for him on his way to a Cy Young, including career bests in BABIP, LOB%, and HR/FB rate, while none were extremely out of line with league norms. It was really an amalgamation of all of this along with 22 Wins that often found him over-priced for our purposes. Pittsburgh is not an imposing offense, but they are patient and could make him work. He would seem accurately priced at best for his skill set at anything near $9K or above. It’s not even that he’s a bad choice today, but that there are so many better ones with higher upside for what you’re being asked to pay.

Marco Estrada (.234 – 75.8% – 9.9) has the lowest ground ball rate on the board over the last two years (32%) with only Verlander even close to him. All of his ERA estimators are around a run or higher than his actual ERA. His DRA has the largest gap on the board. Baseball Prospectus thinks his ERA should have been close to five. With a .256 career mark, it’s certainly conceivable that he has some BABIP suppression talents, generating 39 popups and he does miss bats at an above average rate with a surprisingly high spin fastball (2,413 RPM) at just 88 mph. This, perhaps, allows him to pitch up in the zone without getting thrashed as often as you would expect. There are some good things here. However, we can’t expect a BABIP that low again and he wasn’t magically able to miss barrels at a better than average rate last year either (7.7% per BBE, 4.4% per PA). There should be some regression and it could start against a lineup with a 16.8 HR/FB vs RHP last year. A $7K price tag on DraftKings is really the only thing that might make him interesting in this particular confrontation.

Jose Quintana (.293 – 79% – 9.5) has thrown at least 200 innings in each of the last four seasons and had his best ERA in 2016 (3.20). Hee was only barreled up on 3% of PAs and has a history of HR suppression, but did allow hard contact at a 32.7% clip. Also, while his strikeout rate (21.6%) was the best of his career, you’ll see him as one of two outliers on our K/SwStr% board, as his 7.6 SwStr% (including just a 5.9% mark over the last month of the season) was a career low by almost a full point. He’s never stranded more than 76.6% of runners in a season until last year either. He faces a formidable offense against LHP, even without J.D. Martinez, including a“potentially underrated Nick Castellanos this year.

Junior Guerra (.250 – 79.4% – 8.3) missed bats at a decent rate last season and the Colorado offense is generally exposed as average or something less on the road, but he’s the only pitcher with an ERA/SIERA gap over run today, nearly doubling the second biggest difference. That said, he’s also sporting the largest cost differential between the big two today and his $6.4K price tag on DraftKings may be at least reasonable.

NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)

Kevin Gausman had a nice season last year, striking out 23% of the batters he faced with an ERA and most estimators below four in a tough division with tough parks, including his own. However, he allowed been a pretty prolific reverse split pitcher throughout his career, allowing RHBs a wOBA 40 points higher than LHBs. Toronto is a lineup full of RHBs who hit RHP fairly well (some even much better) even without Encarnacion. In three starts against Toronto last season, he allowed six HRs in 15.1 innings (72 batters). I like his stuff and am looking for another nice year out of him, but this may not be the spot for him. $6.6K on DraftKings does look a bit interesting though.

Gerrit Cole had a down season with an ERA and most estimators around four, which was riddled with injuries. Most impressively, his 2% Barrels/PA last year is second on the board, despite hard contact at around a league average rate (30.1%). He was hitting 97 mph this spring and could be interesting if his slider turns into a weapon against LHBs again, but this may not be the best spot in which to find out. He gets a major park downgrade and Boston was the top offense in baseball last season. They are expected to quite formidable again, despite the loss of their best bat to retirement. As in most places today, the cold weather could favor pitching and he is only $7.4K on DraftKings.

Edinson Volquez has the highest SIERA on the board over the last two seasons (4.54) with the lowest strikeout rate (16.3%) on the slate. His 4.6% Barrels/PA are tied for third worst on this board. He is the only pitcher on the slate with an ERA above five last year. In fact, all of his ERA estimators below are highest on the board as well even if more than a half run less than his actual ERA. The park change may not hurt him much this year as Kansas City is actually a scoring friendly environment overall, but he’s not going to have that defense behind him this year. The weather and Washington’s mediocre performance against RHP last year may be the only favorable aspects for him here, though we may expect the latter of those to show improvement this year.

Scott Feldman threw most of his 77 innings out of the bullpen last year (just five starts) and still had great difficulty missing bats. He’s actually been a bit worse and allowed more HRs to RHBs throughout his career and as bad as the Phillies are, there are now a few RHBs with some pop. He could be okay here for a bargain bottom price against a lineup projected to be poor this year, but even his best is probably just mediocre.

Jhoulys Chacin is the Opening Day starter for one of the few rotations that he would actually make. While he struck out batters at a reasonable rate last season and was barreled up on only 3.2% of PAs, he faces the second best offense vs RHP last year.

K/BB Chart

Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.

K/BB Chart – Opponent

Batted Ball Chart

Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.

Batted Ball Charts – Opponent

K/SwStr Chart (2016 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.5 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)

Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.

As covered, Stephen Strasburg in near his career K/SwStr, while this is a newer thing for Jose Quintana, of whom I might be more skeptical.

ERA Estimators Chart (2016 LG AVG – 4.34 ERA – 4.30 SIERA – 4.24 xFIP – 4.30 FIP)

How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.

We’ve talked about several of the outliers today, but Junior Guerra appears the pitcher to be most suspicious of. Jon Gray may be a victim of Coors here more than anything else. Estimators aren’t kind to Marco Estrada either. They don’t believe in the BABIP, which may have some merit to it, but they may be discounting him too much. DRA really hates him.

BABIP and Statcast Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.9 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.2 Z-Contact%)

A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.

It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.

Gerrit Cole and Junior Guerra are most likely to see BABIP rebounds, in opposing directions.

Pitcher Notes & Summary

Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. Sometimes there are large gaps, sometimes the gaps between tiers is very narrow and this will usually be mentioned. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.

There’s probably nothing really surprising here and we’re kind of guessing on more stuff than normal on Opening Day, but these are mostly pitchers with strong track record. We should know who most of them are at this point.

Value Tier One

Clayton Kershaw (1) is clearly the top pitcher on the board with perhaps the top matchup. Expect him to be extremely popular as players sacrifice high priced offense on a strong pitching board in potentially difficult weather conditions for the closest thing to a sure thing on the board. Obviously, we have less information today than we’ll have all season, possibly making him more of a risk than normal as he has occasionally not been as dominant in April. There’s still nobody I’d feel as confident in.

Value Tier Two

Stephen Strasburg (2t) has as much upside as anyone on the board behind Kershaw, but is priced lower than Syndergaard or Verlander in a nice spot against the Marlins. There’s really a very narrow gap between the second and third tiers as I feel these three guys are nearly interchangeable today considering upside and risk, but I didn’t want to skip the second tier altogether behind Kershaw, so here he is.

Value Tier Three

Justin Verlander (2t) has some flaws that may have been overlooked considering his resurgent strikeout rate and being one of three $10K pitchers on either site is probably what keeps him out of the second tier for me today in what should be a very advantageous matchup.

Noah Syndergaard (2t) could have some difficulty if the Braves are able to slap the ball around on this defense and then run a bit, but we’re still talking about one of the top RHPs in the game against an offense that isn’t going to scare anyone in a pitcher friendly run environment.

Danny Duffy is a bit of a risk with a high rate of hard contact allowed, especially to RHBs, but he’s more reasonably priced (under $9K on either site) than late last season against a below average offense and should be pitching in favorable conditions (or at least unfavorable offensive ones). For now, we can consider that he threw a career high 179.2 innings (by 30 innings) last season and may have just been tiring down the stretch. If he comes out firing like he was mid-season last year, there’s definitely upside beyond his cost. He may make a nice GPP play.

Jon Gray is reasonably priced in the middle of the board and may have the highest upside on it behind Kershaw, against an offense that should strike out a ton vs RHP. There is some risk in a difficult park, but without the foot concern, he might even bump up a tier.

Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.

Ervin Santana does have tremendous upside, but he’s about average in what should be a nice spot at a decent price. He’s a reasonable choice you consider some of the more expensive bats to be necessary.

Jeremy Hellickson is a bit cheaper than Santana, but basically about the same pitcher for our purposes. The upside isn’t enormous, but he’s about an average pitcher in a decent spot, who might help you afford a few more bats.

Julio Teheran wasn’t someone I was expecting to consider today. He misses enough bats to be useful and though his ERA might have been a bit lower than he deserved last year (maybe mostly due to his results against the Mets), he’s still probably an above average arm with an unexpectedly low price, especially on FanDuel (just $7.9K).

You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.

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