Advanced Stats - Pitching: Thursday, June 16th
Tomorrow’s article is still in doubt. I’d like to be able to put together at least something, but at best there won’t be a lot of words. It depends how much I can get down tonight combined with what time I get done with an appointment that may take a good portion of the morning. While not incredibly enthusiastic about tonight’s small group, we’ve seen much worse boards this year. It’s unfortunate though, that the top pitcher is facing the hottest team, but you should be able to build a few lineups with these guys.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | -1 | 3.29 | 6.12 | 1.78 | 1.02 | 3 | 3.16 | TOR | 91 | 102 | 156 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | -4.8 | 4.03 | 6.26 | 1.12 | 0.87 | 3.85 | 4.9 | PIT | 99 | 107 | 41 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 0 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 1.34 | 1.03 | 4.14 | 5.72 | MIN | 91 | 86 | 71 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 4.5 | 4.18 | 5.41 | 0.91 | 1.04 | 4.73 | 2.41 | DET | 100 | 101 | 112 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 4.6 | 4.39 | 5.75 | 1.16 | 1.07 | 4.35 | 7.03 | BAL | 107 | 84 | 115 |
| Erik Johnson | SDG | -5.7 | 4.92 | 5.68 | 0.6 | 0.86 | 5.36 | 5.52 | WAS | 103 | 94 | 96 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 5.4 | 3.96 | 5.86 | 1.18 | 1.02 | 3.83 | 4.19 | PHI | 67 | 62 | 71 |
| Juan Nicasio | PIT | 1.7 | 3.93 | 4.77 | 1.21 | 0.87 | 4.3 | 4.56 | NYM | 94 | 99 | 109 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | -5.5 | 4.3 | 6.13 | 1.11 | 0.9 | 4.63 | 5.88 | LOS | 87 | 90 | 91 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | -7 | 3.81 | 6.53 | 0.83 | 1.04 | 3.98 | 3.41 | KAN | 102 | 94 | 125 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | -5.9 | 4.18 | 5.89 | 2.05 | 1.03 | 3.97 | 5.45 | NYY | 73 | 88 | 81 |
| Scott Kazmir | LOS | -0.9 | 3.98 | 5.79 | 1.09 | 0.9 | 3.91 | 5.2 | MIL | 81 | 91 | 83 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 6.6 | 4.09 | 6.05 | 1.4 | 0.86 | 4.02 | 3.67 | SDG | 86 | 75 | 98 |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | -4.5 | 4.99 | 5.43 | 1.5 | 1.07 | 4.84 | 5.73 | BOS | 125 | 123 | 127 |
Aaron Nola is coming off his worst start of the season, but still has a 21.7 K-BB% (sixth in MLB), a 55.0 GB% (eighth), and 26.6 Soft% (third). Sadly, he might not even make the All Star team with the pitching in the NL this year, but he’s dominating differently from those flame throwers. He’s “(classname)confusing hitters(title tooltip)”:http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/another-way-to-quantify-aaron-nolas-deception/. Toronto is coming out of their shell. They’ve been the hottest offense in baseball over the last week (4.2 K-BB%).
Danny Duffy has been dominant through his last month of starts (31 IP – 25 H – 10 ER – 5 HR – 5 BB – 38 K – 122 BF) with the only drawback being a 13.9 HR/FB on a 50% fly ball rate. His 29.0 Soft% has led to a 16.7 IFFB% otherwise. His 16.0 SwStr% over the last 30 days matches Kershaw’s major league leading rate for the season. How long it will last, nobody knows, but there’s nothing phony about it. Detroit is a tough offense that has just gotten it going against LHP and has been hot overall, but strike out more than average.
J.A. Happ has not often been a favored pitcher in these parts and that changes today more due to his opponents than his own merit. His strikeout rate has cratered this season, though he has the 2nd highest SwStr rate of his career (8.7%) so he should reclaim a few notches, though he’ll need more than that. He’s struck out more than five just once this year and is easily on pace to pass his career high in HRs (22) with 12 already. His 1.32 GB/FB is actually a career best, but his 17.0 Hard-Soft% has led to all those HRs. Hitting HRs is not what the Phillies do though (7.7 HR/FB, 3.3 Hard-Soft% vs LHP), nor is hitting anything really (23.8 K% vs LHP). They are the second worst offense to Atlanta at home and vs LHP.
Juan Nicasio gets a reprieve as he was essentially moved to the bullpen prior to the Gerrit Cole injury. He has a 9.7 BB%, a strikeout rate too high for his below average SwStr%, and still can’t get lefties out (.411 wOBA). The Mets are down many of their good left handed bats with only Curtis Granderson left standing uninjured (Conforto may or may not play with a wrist injury). They have a 15.4 HR/FB vs RHP and blew up last night, but that was against a bad LHP. They have 23.7 K% vs RHP.
Justin Verlander struck out fewer than seven for the first time in seven starts his last time out, but still pitched into the seventh inning, allowing just one run and striking out five at Yankee Stadium. He has an amazing 23.7 K-BB% over his last seven starts with a 13.9 SwStr%. His .223 BABIP and 5.8 HR/FB are a bit too low, despite just a 21.8 Hard%. Kansas City hasn’t suffered as much as expected with the loss of a couple of big left handed bats. In fact, they have a 20.0 HR/FB and 16.9 Hard-Soft% over the last week, but also a 21.4 K-BB%. They beat up on another former Cy Young winner last night.
Scott Kazmir has sandwiched a start where he walked seven Padres and one where he walked five Giants most recently around three where he walked four total with 24 strikeouts. He had allowed 12 HRs through his first nine starts, but none over his last four and has only twice gone more than six innings this year. He’s been below average this season, but has missed bats at an above average rate. The Brewers have an 11.8 BB% against LHP, which is really scary here along with their 16.8 Hard-Soft% against southpaws, but it’s strangely led to just a league average 12.7 HR/FB despite some powerful RH bats. In all, they’re a below average offense that adjust down to a very favorable matchup in a negative run environment and have struck out a ton on the road (26.2%), though less vs LHP (22.5%).
Tanner Roark has gone seven innings with two runs or less in three of his last four starts. He has a league average 13.2 K-BB%, but a 52.5 GB% with a tremendous -10.9 Hard-Soft% that leads baseball. He has one of tonight’s top park adjusted matchups against the worst offense in baseball vs RHP (18.0 K-BB%) in one of the most negative run environments.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.295 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 12.7 HR/FB)
Bartolo Colon (.299 BABIP – 79.8 LOB% – 9.1 HR/FB) has struck out on more batter over the last month (12) than Noah Syndergaard did last night (11). His SwStr has not been above 5% in any of those five starts and has just once been above 3.3%. Pirates bats are ice cold (6.7 HR/FB), but considering Colon can’t miss any bats anymore and won’t walk anyone. Though this beyond the scope of this article, it should be interesting to see what happens from an offensive standpoint as there will be plenty of batted ball opportunities.
C.C. Sabathia (.275 BABIP – 80.6 LOB% – 3.2 HR/FB) has had a fantastic redemption story except it’s not been entirely believable. He’s allowed just two HRs, which is great, but incredibly unsustainable in any park and his strand rate is the highest of his career by over three points. I’m not even bothering with his career low BABIP because his batted ball profile (19.0 IFFB%) and contact rates (-2.3 Hard-Soft%) have been so strong. Minnesota has been a below average offense (23.9 K% vs LHP), but have improved against lefties recently.
Junior Guerra (.267 BABIP – 76.5 LOB% – 9.3 HR/FB) had been pitching well until his last two starts against the limping Mets and the terrible Phillies in which he’s both walked and struck out a total of five with four HRs. Perhaps there’s a reason he didn’t get a shot in the majors until he was over 30 years old. The Dodgers have been poor offensively, but their walk, strikeout, and HR rates are actually all better than average.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Kyle Gibson is doing that thing again where his K% runs short of his SwStr% except he’s missing fewer bats this year which makes it much worse plus he’s missed some time with a shoulder injury.
Eduardo Rodriguez has been terrible in three starts (16.1 IP – 11 ER – 7 BB – 7 K). In fact, his best start was his first against these Orioles without a walk and striking out three of 24 over six innings with just two runs. More than half his contact has been in the air, which has led to five HRs and is generally not encouraged in Boston.
Erik Johnson makes you want to stack in Petco. He’s allowed seven HRs and only faced 77 batters.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 24.0% | 5.4% | Home | 26.2% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 6.3% |
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | L2 Years | 16.7% | 3.4% | Home | 18.8% | 3.7% | L14 Days | 6.5% | 2.2% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 19.1% | 7.6% | Road | 18.7% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 16.0% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 19.9% | 8.1% | Home | 18.0% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 34.7% | 4.2% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 17.7% | 7.4% | Home | 16.7% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 8.7% | 15.2% |
| Erik Johnson | Padres | L2 Years | 19.3% | 11.0% | Home | 18.9% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 8.3% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 19.8% | 6.4% | Road | 21.0% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 15.7% | 3.9% |
| Juan Nicasio | Pirates | L2 Years | 23.5% | 10.8% | Road | 21.8% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 23.6% | 12.7% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Years | 20.4% | 8.3% | Road | 20.0% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 9.6% | 9.6% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 21.6% | 6.0% | Road | 21.6% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 3.9% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 16.4% | 8.0% | Home | 17.5% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 8.7% | 4.4% |
| Scott Kazmir | Dodgers | L2 Years | 21.3% | 7.8% | Home | 22.8% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 13.6% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 17.0% | 5.9% | Road | 15.9% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 4.7% |
| Tyler Wilson | Orioles | L2 Years | 10.7% | 6.5% | Road | 10.7% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 8.7% | 6.5% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.3% | 9.7% | RH | 22.1% | 9.8% | L7Days | 16.1% | 11.9% |
| Pirates | Road | 22.7% | 8.2% | RH | 19.5% | 8.7% | L7Days | 25.0% | 5.0% |
| Twins | Home | 19.9% | 8.2% | LH | 23.9% | 8.4% | L7Days | 19.6% | 10.0% |
| Tigers | Road | 23.1% | 7.5% | LH | 21.3% | 9.7% | L7Days | 20.1% | 9.8% |
| Orioles | Road | 25.8% | 7.4% | LH | 22.4% | 7.9% | L7Days | 24.0% | 6.9% |
| Nationals | Road | 21.1% | 8.8% | RH | 20.3% | 9.0% | L7Days | 19.3% | 8.9% |
| Phillies | Home | 22.9% | 7.3% | LH | 23.8% | 7.3% | L7Days | 25.5% | 5.7% |
| Mets | Home | 24.2% | 9.8% | RH | 23.7% | 9.1% | L7Days | 19.5% | 6.4% |
| Dodgers | Home | 19.4% | 9.2% | RH | 20.8% | 9.1% | L7Days | 22.7% | 8.4% |
| Royals | Home | 18.2% | 6.6% | RH | 20.0% | 6.1% | L7Days | 25.5% | 4.1% |
| Yankees | Road | 19.2% | 6.6% | RH | 18.7% | 7.8% | L7Days | 15.6% | 8.9% |
| Brewers | Road | 26.2% | 10.4% | LH | 22.5% | 11.8% | L7Days | 23.3% | 9.1% |
| Padres | Home | 23.7% | 6.6% | RH | 24.2% | 6.2% | L7Days | 23.9% | 5.5% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.5% | 9.7% | RH | 18.1% | 8.5% | L7Days | 15.9% | 8.7% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 25.9% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 2016 | 23.0% | 12.7% | -3.6% | Home | 25.7% | 21.7% | 1.9% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 0.0% | -6.2% |
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | L2 Years | 30.3% | 9.7% | 13.8% | 2016 | 37.0% | 9.1% | 22.3% | Home | 32.8% | 10.5% | 14.5% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 9.1% | 14.2% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 27.6% | 12.9% | 8.9% | 2016 | 23.1% | 3.2% | -2.3% | Road | 27.8% | 13.1% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 0.0% | -18.8% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 29.9% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 2016 | 28.2% | 11.1% | 3.2% | Home | 30.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 16.7% | 7.1% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 31.3% | 11.6% | 11.7% | 2016 | 30.4% | 16.7% | 9.0% | Home | 27.2% | 14.8% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 25.7% | 29.4% | 5.7% |
| Erik Johnson | Padres | L2 Years | 41.8% | 20.0% | 27.2% | 2016 | 49.1% | 31.8% | 34.5% | Home | 44.2% | 20.0% | 32.6% | L14 Days | 47.4% | 28.6% | 31.6% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 32.3% | 10.7% | 15.6% | 2016 | 32.8% | 14.1% | 17.0% | Road | 31.0% | 12.9% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 39.0% | 38.5% | 24.4% |
| Juan Nicasio | Pirates | L2 Years | 23.6% | 10.2% | 4.7% | 2016 | 23.8% | 14.3% | 2.9% | Road | 26.8% | 10.2% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 37.1% | 6.7% | 28.5% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Years | 34.4% | 10.5% | 15.6% | 2016 | 35.7% | 9.3% | 17.1% | Road | 27.0% | 16.0% | 1.6% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 18.8% | 16.6% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 25.6% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 2016 | 27.8% | 9.8% | 8.9% | Road | 20.7% | 8.8% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 12.5% | 5.4% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 26.8% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 2016 | 25.0% | 11.1% | 1.0% | Home | 28.4% | 13.9% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 14.3% | 10.0% |
| Scott Kazmir | Dodgers | L2 Years | 24.9% | 11.0% | 6.1% | 2016 | 22.0% | 15.8% | -1.4% | Home | 23.0% | 5.4% | 3.2% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 0.0% | 10.0% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 23.3% | 10.3% | 0.4% | 2016 | 20.2% | 9.4% | -10.9% | Road | 25.4% | 14.3% | -0.6% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 0.0% | -13.3% |
| Tyler Wilson | Orioles | L2 Years | 31.1% | 7.5% | 14.5% | 2016 | 30.9% | 10.0% | 12.1% | Road | 33.3% | 8.1% | 17.7% | L14 Days | 35.9% | 0.0% | 23.1% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Jays | Road | 30.6% | 13.5% | 10.4% | RH | 33.2% | 13.3% | 15.2% | L7Days | 34.8% | 14.1% | 15.4% |
| Pirates | Road | 30.8% | 12.3% | 10.6% | RH | 29.0% | 10.0% | 8.7% | L7Days | 27.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% |
| Twins | Home | 31.9% | 10.6% | 14.0% | LH | 30.9% | 12.4% | 13.1% | L7Days | 23.2% | 7.1% | 4.2% |
| Tigers | Road | 31.8% | 12.1% | 11.8% | LH | 33.0% | 11.5% | 13.5% | L7Days | 31.3% | 8.3% | 11.4% |
| Orioles | Road | 32.0% | 17.3% | 13.2% | LH | 32.5% | 14.0% | 9.7% | L7Days | 30.4% | 25.9% | 10.8% |
| Nationals | Road | 35.0% | 15.0% | 17.8% | RH | 32.5% | 13.8% | 15.2% | L7Days | 32.1% | 11.3% | 17.4% |
| Phillies | Home | 23.2% | 9.7% | 1.2% | LH | 24.3% | 7.7% | 3.3% | L7Days | 29.7% | 18.2% | 6.9% |
| Mets | Home | 32.6% | 13.1% | 9.3% | RH | 33.7% | 15.4% | 16.2% | L7Days | 33.5% | 12.8% | 14.4% |
| Dodgers | Home | 31.0% | 14.9% | 12.2% | RH | 32.8% | 12.9% | 15.3% | L7Days | 36.6% | 15.3% | 20.3% |
| Royals | Home | 29.6% | 10.2% | 7.2% | RH | 29.6% | 9.5% | 9.3% | L7Days | 34.4% | 20.0% | 16.9% |
| Yankees | Road | 27.1% | 9.5% | 9.1% | RH | 24.9% | 12.8% | 6.6% | L7Days | 23.6% | 2.1% | 1.8% |
| Brewers | Road | 28.9% | 12.5% | 7.9% | LH | 33.6% | 12.7% | 16.8% | L7Days | 30.0% | 10.3% | 11.8% |
| Padres | Home | 28.8% | 11.8% | 11.7% | RH | 30.9% | 11.1% | 13.4% | L7Days | 27.6% | 14.3% | 10.5% |
| Red Sox | Home | 33.2% | 11.6% | 14.2% | RH | 33.8% | 13.2% | 14.9% | L7Days | 32.9% | 12.0% | 12.2% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.6 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.19 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 26.5% | 10.3% | 2.57 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 2.18 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 16.0% | 5.5% | 2.91 | 9.7% | 2.9% | 3.34 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 19.9% | 9.0% | 2.21 | 23.1% | 9.6% | 2.41 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 30.1% | 17.3% | 1.74 | 30.0% | 16.0% | 1.88 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 10.0% | 6.1% | 1.64 | 10.0% | 6.1% | 1.64 |
| Erik Johnson | SDG | 18.2% | 8.1% | 2.25 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.81 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 15.9% | 8.7% | 1.83 | 16.2% | 8.4% | 1.93 |
| Juan Nicasio | PIT | 23.3% | 8.1% | 2.88 | 22.8% | 8.9% | 2.56 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 20.7% | 11.2% | 1.85 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 2.01 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 26.2% | 11.6% | 2.26 | 29.0% | 13.4% | 2.16 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 10.5% | 8.6% | 1.22 | 8.7% | 5.3% | 1.64 |
| Scott Kazmir | LOS | 23.8% | 10.5% | 2.27 | 27.8% | 11.5% | 2.42 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.57 | 21.1% | 9.5% | 2.22 |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | 11.9% | 6.1% | 1.95 | 11.7% | 6.6% | 1.77 |
Aaron Nola has the highest called strike rate in baseball among qualified non-knuckleball starters according to the article linked in his paragraph above. Or at least he did as of a week ago. This is just to make a point of and help validate my thoughts that any K/SwStr above 2.7 or so is probably kind of fluky.
Danny Duffy has lost nothing going from pen to rotation, but I don’t think we can expect much more of his strikeout rate. It’s more likely there’s some sort of decline in his SwStr%.
Juan Nicasio has had a SwStr below 7% in five of 11 starts and has not reached 11% in any start. I’m guessing this has some to do with not having a decent pitch against lefties and poor control overall.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.05 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.00 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 2.98 | 2.94 | -0.04 | 2.74 | -0.24 | 2.75 | -0.23 | 3.14 | 3.37 | 0.23 | 3.24 | 0.1 | 3.79 | 0.65 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 3.08 | 4.36 | 1.28 | 4.12 | 1.04 | 3.63 | 0.55 | 2.43 | 5.34 | 2.91 | 4.99 | 2.56 | 3.77 | 1.34 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 2.28 | 4.56 | 2.28 | 4.64 | 2.36 | 3.33 | 1.05 | 0.87 | 4.15 | 3.28 | 4.48 | 3.61 | 3.1 | 2.23 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 2.94 | 2.84 | -0.1 | 3.33 | 0.39 | 3.11 | 0.17 | 3.21 | 2.89 | -0.32 | 3.47 | 0.26 | 3.74 | 0.53 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 6.06 | 6.26 | 0.2 | 6.57 | 0.51 | 7.54 | 1.48 | 6.06 | 6.27 | 0.21 | 6.57 | 0.51 | 7.54 | 1.48 |
| Erik Johnson | SDG | 7.71 | 4.89 | -2.82 | 5.1 | -2.61 | 8.45 | 0.74 | 7.94 | 5.18 | -2.76 | 5.21 | -2.73 | 8.77 | 0.83 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 3.7 | 4.66 | 0.96 | 4.51 | 0.81 | 4.71 | 1.01 | 6.03 | 4.68 | -1.35 | 4.57 | -1.46 | 5.78 | -0.25 |
| Juan Nicasio | PIT | 5.34 | 4.17 | -1.17 | 4.17 | -1.17 | 4.4 | -0.94 | 7.06 | 4.26 | -2.8 | 4.36 | -2.7 | 4.79 | -2.27 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 3.31 | 4.35 | 1.04 | 4.31 | 1 | 3.82 | 0.51 | 2.9 | 4.28 | 1.38 | 4.23 | 1.33 | 4.16 | 1.26 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 3.77 | 3.61 | -0.16 | 3.89 | 0.12 | 3.45 | -0.32 | 2.48 | 3.13 | 0.65 | 3.36 | 0.88 | 2.22 | -0.26 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 6.49 | 5.47 | -1.02 | 5.53 | -0.96 | 5.33 | -1.16 | 7.94 | 5.45 | -2.49 | 4.98 | -2.96 | 5.25 | -2.69 |
| Scott Kazmir | LOS | 4.52 | 4.05 | -0.47 | 4.21 | -0.31 | 4.63 | 0.11 | 3.9 | 4.24 | 0.34 | 4.19 | 0.29 | 3.71 | -0.19 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 2.93 | 3.91 | 0.98 | 3.65 | 0.72 | 3.38 | 0.45 | 2.64 | 3.65 | 1.01 | 3.43 | 0.79 | 3.68 | 1.04 |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | 4.73 | 4.93 | 0.2 | 4.87 | 0.14 | 4.47 | -0.26 | 6.67 | 5.08 | -1.59 | 5.12 | -1.55 | 4.75 | -1.92 |
J.A. Happ has a career low .257 BABIP (.290 career) and a career high 79.6 LOB% (74.0% career). Interestingly, he’s never had a major problem with HRs. His 14.2 HR/FB beats his previous 11.9 HR/FB career high, but his 34.1 FB% ties the lowest fly ball rate of his career (last year). The only encouraging part of any of this is that Toronto has a team .278 BABIP, so there’s some hope there.
Juan Nicasio has stranded just 66.8% of his runners and his 14.3 HR/FB is a bit high for someone with just a 23.8 Hard%.
Tanner Roark has a .291 BABIP and 75.0 LOB% that are as close to league average as can be, but has five unearned runs to his name. Though he has a 23.3 LD%, leading the league in weak contact is a good way to keep your HR rate in single digits (9.4 HR/FB).
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 21.0 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 0.296 | 0.283 | -0.013 | 0.2 | 5.5% | 84.0% |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 0.301 | 0.299 | -0.002 | 0.259 | 11.7% | 93.5% |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 0.306 | 0.275 | -0.031 | 0.176 | 19.0% | 88.3% |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 0.291 | 0.305 | 0.014 | 0.208 | 13.0% | 73.5% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 0.281 | 0.216 | -0.065 | 0.125 | 10.0% | 88.9% |
| Erik Johnson | SDG | 0.305 | 0.333 | 0.028 | 0.218 | 4.5% | 89.8% |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 0.277 | 0.257 | -0.02 | 0.209 | 11.8% | 85.1% |
| Juan Nicasio | PIT | 0.296 | 0.313 | 0.017 | 0.216 | 11.1% | 87.2% |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 0.304 | 0.267 | -0.037 | 0.193 | 9.3% | 84.4% |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 0.301 | 0.263 | -0.038 | 0.201 | 13.7% | 83.8% |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 0.331 | 0.301 | -0.03 | 0.177 | 3.7% | 92.4% |
| Scott Kazmir | LOS | 0.266 | 0.269 | 0.003 | 0.205 | 11.8% | 81.8% |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 0.281 | 0.291 | 0.01 | 0.233 | 3.8% | 88.0% |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | 0.307 | 0.265 | -0.042 | 0.181 | 11.4% | 92.2% |
Justin Verlander has great indicators in the chart above and a career .289 BABIP, but the Detroit defense is not going to help him. This is the second lowest BABIP of his career.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
When I first looked at the names on tonight’s slate, I thought it would be much worse. We may not have a true Tier One guy tonight, but often don’t on these short slates and at least the top three would be mentioned somewhere down here on most strong days. The bottom two tiers tonight are full of short slate considerations.
We haven’t done the price comparison thing in a few days, but today has one of the craziest ones of the season. Sabathia is just $200 more than Wilson on FanDuel, but nearly three times his price on DraftKings for a $5.6K difference between sites.
Value Tier One
Aaron Nola (1) has been one of the best pitchers in baseball by K-BB%, GB%, and Soft%, which are probably three of the most important things. We don’t like a matchup with the red hot Blue Jays at all, but it’s not enough to pull him from the top slot on a half slate.
Value Tier Two
Danny Duffy (2t) has been a stud in a starting role, but he’s facing a quality offense full of RH bats, against whom all six of his HRs this year have come, and he’s finally being priced slightly more adequately.
J.A. Happ (2t) has been a below average pitcher by peripherals and estimators, but slightly above average by ERA. What we know for sure is he’s an affordable lefty facing the Phillies and that’s sometimes enough.
Value Tier Three
Tanner Roark (2t) has been league average in walks and strikeouts, but is dominating the weak contact game and takes that to one of the best parks against the worst offense vs RHP, though it’s always a bit uncomfortable paying a high price for batted ball results.
Scott Kazmir (5) has had some scary outings this year, but has had some good ones too and costs less than $9K against a below average offense that strikes out a lot in a negative run environment. These are the kind of pitchers that hang around on short slates when we’re still trying to fill four tiers.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Juan Nicasio (6) is not nearly an option against almost any team for $8K on a full slate and is barely one on a half slate. The Mets don’t have many functional LH hitters at this point though, unless you count Kelly Johnson, who may be hitting cleanup at this point.
Justin Verlander (2t) is the highest priced pitcher tonight and while he’s been dominant over his last seven starts, a lot of that has come against weak competition (Yankees, White Sox, Phillies, Twins). He probably belongs higher, but we can’t completely forget that he’s been just good and not great when taking all of his starts this year into consideration and did have just a 6.6 SwStr% in his last start after six straight in double digits.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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