Advanced Stats - Pitching: Thursday, June 9th
Remember two days back when all of your pitching choices were terrible? And then yesterday when everything was awesome? Well, tonight’s like the first one, only worse. I can only equate this to Saturday night when there was Kershaw accompanied by a horror show, but at least that slate had Kershaw. There is not a single pitcher priced above $9K tonight, nor any of those low priced upside arms. Let’s try to get through this.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | -9.4 | 4.05 | 6.57 | 1.65 | 1.02 | 4.33 | 3.39 | CIN | 94 | 86 | 167 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | -2.7 | 4 | 6.26 | 1.09 | 1.05 | 4.13 | 5.17 | MIL | 97 | 90 | 93 |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | -6.6 | 4.48 | 5.63 | 1.44 | 1.02 | 3.81 | 6.25 | STL | 119 | 99 | 133 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | -4 | 4.08 | 6.11 | 1.16 | 1.03 | 4.45 | 4.88 | FLA | 105 | 92 | 59 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 7.7 | 3.65 | 5.79 | 1.7 | 0.99 | 3.8 | 3.34 | CHW | 85 | 100 | 77 |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | -1.9 | 4.25 | 5.61 | 1.83 | 1.02 | 4.62 | 3.77 | ANA | 101 | 102 | 125 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | ANA | 4.1 | 4.17 | 5.89 | 1.56 | 1.02 | 3.91 | 4.44 | NYY | 104 | 88 | 136 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | -5.9 | 4.11 | 5.95 | 1.66 | 1.05 | 3.68 | 5.11 | NYM | 100 | 99 | 89 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 10.4 | 3.63 | 6.07 | 1.01 | 0.9 | 4.09 | 5.03 | SEA | 114 | 118 | 100 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 6.5 | 3.56 | 6.33 | 2.34 | 1.02 | 3.6 | 4.61 | BAL | 106 | 115 | 134 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 4.6 | 4.55 | 5.79 | 1.05 | 0.99 | 4.35 | 4.23 | WAS | 105 | 93 | 137 |
| Nate Karns | SEA | -5.7 | 3.93 | 5.57 | 1.14 | 0.9 | 4.04 | 4.61 | CLE | 78 | 103 | 96 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 1.5 | 4.53 | 5.84 | 1.19 | 1.03 | 5.15 | 5.35 | MIN | 96 | 91 | 139 |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | -4.1 | 4.84 | 5.39 | 1.65 | 1.02 | 4.55 | 3.92 | TOR | 102 | 95 | 79 |
Ervin Santana has allowed seven of his eight HRs over his last four starts and 14 runs over his last 16.2 innings with 13 strikeouts of 74 batters and seven walks. Well, no, there’s nothing really interesting there, but we have to dig deeper today. He’s induced a lot of weak contact (6.5 Hard-Soft%) and has a 10.6 SwStr% over the last month. The Marlins are a below average offense vs RHP (9.5 HR/FB, 7.1 Hard-Soft%) and one of the coldest in baseball (14.4 K-BB%, 3.3 HR/FB last seven days).
Gio Gonzalez has allowed seven HRs over his last six starts. He allowed eight HRs all of last season and 10 the year before with never more than 17 in a season. He has greatly increased his K% over the last month, but that might be a bit of a fluke too as his SwStr% has been just average. He still struggles to get deep into games, reaching six innings just twice in his last six starts. His 23.1 K% over the last two calendar years is second best on today’s board and he’s one of only two pitchers with strikeout rate above 20% this year. The White Sox are one of the top park adjusted matchups on a very mediocre board. They have just a 9.4 HR/FB and 4.3 Hard-Soft% at home and a 22.7 Hard% over the last week.
Jhoulys Chacin threw a complete game, striking out 10 of 32 Tigers two starts back. He followed it up with four walks and one strikeout in Pittsburgh and preceded it with five starts with no more than four strikeouts. The Yankees have just a 26.1 Hard% at home and 25.1 Hard% vs RHP. They have not been good against RHP, despite last night’s outburst. Chacin does have a 35.2 Hard%, but has kept the ball on the ground 52.9% of the time.
Marcus Stroman has the second highest ground ball rate in baseball (59.8%). That’s fantastic and should really help him in tonight’s worst matchup against a lineup that really hammers hard throwing RHPs (32.9 Hard%, 16.6 HR/FB) and has been scorching the ball over the last week (37.5 Hard%, 25.7 HR/FB). The two issues are that he has just a 16.2 K% and a lot of his contact is hit hard (16.7 Hard-Soft%). This doesn’t really do much for us from a daily fantasy standpoint and is a reason why his BABIP is above .300 despite an 18.8 LD%. He walked five in his last start and has only struck out more than five twice this year. None of this is an endorsement for him, I know.
Nate Karns would be the second pitcher with an above average strikeout rate tonight and while he’s somewhat curbed his major HR issues (just six), he’s also walking 9.8% of batters and hasn’t exceeded five innings in three of his last four starts. In fact, he’s reached six innings in just five of 11 starts. Cleveland is not bad against RHP, but has been terrible on the road for some reason (23.9 K%) and may be the most favorable park adjusted matchup at Safeco, but they do have patience (9.0 BB% vs RHP).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.295 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 12.7 HR/FB)
Josh Tomlin (.262 BABIP – 70.4 LOB% – 13.2 HR/FB) provides a very important lesson that often gets forgotten when looking for the reason for a large gap between ERA and estimators. If you can’t find it in the BABIP, LOB%, or HR rate, look towards unearned runs. He has six, which is 20% of his season total. He’s struck out four or fewer in seven of his last nine and faces a high power offense, albeit in tonight’s most pitcher friendly park. This is a HR prone pitcher (15.4 HR/FB last two calendar years) with 10 allowed already this season and the Mariners have a 17.1 HR/FB at home with a 16.1 HR/FB vs RHP. Low strikeouts, high HR potential, and a price above $8K.
Jimmy Nelson (.254 BABIP – 79.2 LOB% – 16.9 HR/FB) is one of the most consistently over-valued pitchers in baseball. He can sometimes do a good job against lineups that lean heavily right-handed, but that’s not the Mets and he struggles against LHBs (.352 wOBA career). His “improvements” against LHBs this year is all BABIP (.207). He has a 13.2 BB%, 37.4 Hard%, and 22.6 HR/FB against lefties in 2016. He allowed six runs with two HRs and three walks, striking out only one Phillie in his last start. I can’t endorse paying $8K or more for him here.
Bartolo Colon (.293 BABIP – 79.0 LOB% – 9.7 HR/FB) is not what you would call a bat misser, but this has been bad even for him. His SwStr has been below 5% in five of his last six, while he’s struck out a total of six over his last three starts, getting by due to a high strand rate. Milwaukee has a 26.3 K% against RHP, but also a 15.2 HR/FB. They have a 35.3 Hard% and 15.1 HR/FB in a great home park. This seems like the type of pitcher they might tee off on. Then again, they have a 9.8 BB% against RHP too and patience against Colon is just going to get you behind in the count nearly all the time. You can’t pay $7K for fly balls in Milwaukee though.
Brandon Finnegan (.248 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 13.9 HR/FB) has pitched into the 7th inning in each of his last three starts, allowing just one ER in two of them. He’s also failed to strike out more batters than he’s walked in any of those starts and now has just a 4.0 K-BB% on the season.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Ivan Nova has allowed a HR in all six of his starts and at least four runs in each of his last three with the GB rate dropping below 50% in all three. His hard contact rate is 40% over his last two starts and the Angels have just a 15.8 K% vs RHP. His strikeout rate is trending up though and could get near league average with his SwStr% already there. Where you have to pick two of these guys, on DraftKings, he’s not much worse than most others for just $5.3K.
Adam Wainwright has been pitching much better over the last month. Not better to the point where I want to pay $8K for him on FanDuel, but maybe good enough that it might be wise to stop stacking against him and maybe consider $5.6K on DraftKings on this board. His last four starts: 26.2 IP – 9 ER – 3 HR – 5 BB – 20 K – 110 BF. Three of those starts and the two best ones were at home. He’s allowed at least three ERs in all six road starts with all eight of his HRs. Who knew the Reds had an offense? They’ve been tearing it up ever since their series at Coors. They have a 17.9 HR/FB at home and 14.4 HR/FB vs RHP. Adam Duvall has been a force.
Miguel Gonzalez has twice walked five in his last four starts (with five strikeouts), sandwiched around two starts without a walk and 13 strikeouts. His 46.2 GB% is six points above his career high with a career low 19.2 LD%. His .324 BABIP is 50 points above his career rate, while his 80.6 LOB% is just two points above his career rate. He has one of the highest strand rates in history for a starting pitcher with over 500 innings and I have no idea how he does it (and I’m still not buying into it). Washington has improved against RHP and been hot enough over the last week to the point where I don’t even really consider them a favorable matchup here. We know where the 9.1 BB% comes from against RHP, but they now have a 14.1 HR/FB and 15.0 Hard-Soft%.
Tyler Wilson has a high of four strikeouts this season, which is likely how he has an ERA above four with just a .257 BABIP.
Tom Koehler has a 3.4 K-BB%. He snapped a string of four starts with exactly five walks last time out and has walked at least four in six of 11.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 16.2% | 5.5% | Road | 16.1% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 1.9% |
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | L2 Years | 17.0% | 3.4% | Road | 14.9% | 3.1% | L14 Days | 8.3% | 4.2% |
| Brandon Finnegan | Reds | L2 Years | 19.3% | 10.7% | Home | 19.8% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 13.7% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 20.3% | 8.1% | Home | 17.4% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 9.4% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 23.1% | 8.3% | Road | 21.5% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 8.0% |
| Ivan Nova | Yankees | L2 Years | 15.5% | 6.6% | Home | 15.3% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 6.0% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Angels | L2 Years | 18.8% | 8.0% | Road | 18.6% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 19.3% | 8.8% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 19.2% | 8.3% | Home | 22.4% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 12.2% | 10.2% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | L2 Years | 20.0% | 3.1% | Road | 18.0% | 3.1% | L14 Days | 10.2% | 2.0% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 18.7% | 6.3% | Home | 15.5% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 16.4% | 10.9% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 16.7% | 8.1% | Home | 18.6% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 9.8% |
| Nate Karns | Mariners | L2 Years | 23.5% | 9.2% | Home | 21.5% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 11.5% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | L2 Years | 18.3% | 9.7% | Road | 14.6% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 15.1% | 11.3% |
| Tyler Wilson | Orioles | L2 Years | 10.7% | 6.1% | Road | 10.6% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 12.0% | 2.7% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | Home | 22.9% | 6.3% | RH | 23.0% | 6.2% | L7Days | 26.0% | 6.4% |
| Brewers | Home | 24.1% | 10.6% | RH | 26.3% | 9.8% | L7Days | 22.7% | 8.9% |
| Cardinals | Road | 19.8% | 9.2% | LH | 20.4% | 9.8% | L7Days | 12.2% | 8.7% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.8% | 7.4% | RH | 19.2% | 7.4% | L7Days | 19.5% | 5.1% |
| White Sox | Home | 20.6% | 10.4% | LH | 21.7% | 8.6% | L7Days | 20.7% | 9.6% |
| Angels | Road | 15.6% | 7.5% | RH | 15.8% | 8.2% | L7Days | 15.5% | 7.3% |
| Yankees | Home | 18.2% | 8.6% | RH | 19.0% | 7.6% | L7Days | 14.8% | 3.4% |
| Mets | Road | 24.6% | 8.0% | RH | 24.1% | 9.4% | L7Days | 25.7% | 8.0% |
| Mariners | Home | 20.6% | 9.1% | RH | 19.2% | 9.2% | L7Days | 20.6% | 5.8% |
| Orioles | Road | 26.2% | 7.5% | RH | 23.0% | 8.4% | L7Days | 23.1% | 8.4% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.9% | 9.0% | RH | 20.5% | 9.1% | L7Days | 15.9% | 8.5% |
| Indians | Road | 23.9% | 7.0% | RH | 21.3% | 9.0% | L7Days | 23.0% | 5.8% |
| Twins | Home | 19.6% | 7.6% | RH | 23.0% | 7.9% | L7Days | 21.5% | 8.3% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 22.5% | 9.3% | RH | 22.8% | 9.5% | L7Days | 18.6% | 14.1% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 27.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 2016 | 31.0% | 10.7% | 14.7% | Road | 31.8% | 15.7% | 18.2% | L14 Days | 39.0% | 23.1% | 24.4% |
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | L2 Years | 30.4% | 9.8% | 14.2% | 2016 | 37.7% | 9.7% | 24.7% | Road | 29.8% | 10.4% | 15.2% | L14 Days | 40.5% | 9.1% | 23.8% |
| Brandon Finnegan | Reds | L2 Years | 32.0% | 15.9% | 12.4% | 2016 | 33.8% | 13.9% | 16.2% | Home | 32.0% | 25.0% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 39.5% | 7.1% | 26.3% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 28.4% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 2016 | 28.1% | 14.5% | 6.5% | Home | 31.0% | 15.4% | 15.5% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 25.0% | 12.8% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 28.0% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 2016 | 33.0% | 12.7% | 13.7% | Road | 30.2% | 7.2% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 28.6% | 6.2% |
| Ivan Nova | Yankees | L2 Years | 32.1% | 15.7% | 12.1% | 2016 | 31.7% | 21.6% | 9.3% | Home | 29.3% | 13.3% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 35.6% | 22.2% | 3.4% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Angels | L2 Years | 36.0% | 14.4% | 17.5% | 2016 | 35.2% | 14.3% | 13.4% | Road | 38.8% | 21.6% | 19.1% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 31.3% | 12.5% | 10.7% | 2016 | 34.7% | 16.9% | 10.2% | Home | 30.9% | 15.8% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 38.9% | 37.5% | 11.1% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | L2 Years | 32.8% | 15.4% | 16.3% | 2016 | 36.3% | 13.2% | 19.9% | Road | 36.7% | 13.0% | 19.5% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 5.6% | 2.3% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 27.4% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 2016 | 32.7% | 10.9% | 16.7% | Home | 32.9% | 6.7% | 19.4% | L14 Days | 47.5% | 33.3% | 30.0% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 29.5% | 13.7% | 11.2% | 2016 | 27.4% | 11.1% | 7.6% | Home | 29.8% | 14.7% | 13.1% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 12.5% | 19.4% |
| Nate Karns | Mariners | L2 Years | 32.5% | 12.6% | 12.1% | 2016 | 28.8% | 10.0% | 7.9% | Home | 32.3% | 11.9% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% | -5.7% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | L2 Years | 32.4% | 8.5% | 15.4% | 2016 | 24.9% | 6.7% | 3.8% | Road | 31.1% | 11.6% | 13.7% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 7.7% | 7.9% |
| Tyler Wilson | Orioles | L2 Years | 31.0% | 8.4% | 14.2% | 2016 | 30.7% | 12.1% | 11.3% | Road | 33.3% | 10.0% | 17.6% | L14 Days | 35.9% | 18.8% | 20.3% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | Home | 32.3% | 17.9% | 16.5% | RH | 32.5% | 14.4% | 14.9% | L7Days | 38.4% | 27.1% | 18.3% |
| Brewers | Home | 35.3% | 15.1% | 18.2% | RH | 32.1% | 15.2% | 12.4% | L7Days | 32.0% | 14.3% | 10.4% |
| Cardinals | Road | 31.6% | 14.6% | 12.7% | LH | 31.8% | 11.5% | 14.2% | L7Days | 33.1% | 17.4% | 14.9% |
| Marlins | Road | 29.6% | 10.3% | 7.3% | RH | 28.8% | 9.5% | 7.1% | L7Days | 34.3% | 3.3% | 20.3% |
| White Sox | Home | 27.7% | 9.5% | 4.3% | LH | 28.7% | 11.4% | 7.9% | L7Days | 22.7% | 7.1% | -0.7% |
| Angels | Road | 29.9% | 9.2% | 7.5% | RH | 30.4% | 10.0% | 10.1% | L7Days | 35.6% | 13.6% | 16.7% |
| Yankees | Home | 26.1% | 14.8% | 5.4% | RH | 25.1% | 14.0% | 7.1% | L7Days | 29.4% | 21.8% | 11.2% |
| Mets | Road | 34.9% | 16.7% | 21.4% | RH | 33.8% | 15.6% | 16.3% | L7Days | 34.5% | 11.8% | 21.0% |
| Mariners | Home | 30.1% | 17.1% | 10.7% | RH | 31.4% | 16.1% | 13.6% | L7Days | 31.7% | 14.3% | 14.5% |
| Orioles | Road | 32.5% | 15.3% | 14.0% | RH | 32.9% | 16.6% | 12.7% | L7Days | 37.5% | 25.7% | 17.3% |
| Nationals | Road | 34.7% | 15.2% | 17.1% | RH | 32.7% | 14.1% | 15.0% | L7Days | 33.1% | 21.3% | 18.5% |
| Indians | Road | 31.0% | 11.8% | 12.3% | RH | 31.4% | 13.6% | 15.0% | L7Days | 31.4% | 15.5% | 16.9% |
| Twins | Home | 32.6% | 11.2% | 14.8% | RH | 31.0% | 11.4% | 12.0% | L7Days | 36.3% | 17.4% | 19.6% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 36.4% | 12.8% | 20.0% | RH | 32.9% | 13.2% | 15.1% | L7Days | 25.2% | 14.5% | 4.1% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.6 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.19 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 14.7% | 6.9% | 2.13 | 16.9% | 6.4% | 2.64 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 16.7% | 5.7% | 2.93 | 10.7% | 3.5% | 3.06 |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.81 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.80 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 19.3% | 9.8% | 1.97 | 18.4% | 10.6% | 1.74 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 22.0% | 9.1% | 2.42 | 26.4% | 9.6% | 2.75 |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 16.1% | 9.6% | 1.68 | 17.9% | 9.7% | 1.85 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | ANA | 19.4% | 8.9% | 2.18 | 16.2% | 7.3% | 2.22 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 19.2% | 7.5% | 2.56 | 18.2% | 9.4% | 1.94 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 16.4% | 7.0% | 2.34 | 16.5% | 6.7% | 2.46 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 16.2% | 8.4% | 1.93 | 13.5% | 8.7% | 1.55 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 19.1% | 10.4% | 1.84 | 18.6% | 9.7% | 1.92 |
| Nate Karns | SEA | 23.4% | 10.2% | 2.29 | 20.2% | 8.9% | 2.27 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 16.7% | 7.7% | 2.17 | 16.2% | 7.7% | 2.10 |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | 12.0% | 6.1% | 1.97 | 10.9% | 5.9% | 1.85 |
Ervin Santana has had a double digit SwStr% in five of his last six starts. He has a 2.03 K/SwStr in his career, so he’s probably going to need a double digit SwStr% to get above a league average K%, but he could be in line for a few more strikeouts.
Gio Gonzalez has a 9.5 career SwStr% and 23.0 K%, so the number of bats he’s missed over the last month is equal to the rate at which he’s missed them in his career with a K% closer to his rate for the season.
Marcus Stroman hasn’t been missing less bats, so his K% shouldn’t have declined over the last month. Still not a ringing endorsement. I know.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.05 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.00 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 5.4 | 4.62 | -0.78 | 4.42 | -0.98 | 4.17 | -1.23 | 4.26 | 4.13 | -0.13 | 3.97 | -0.29 | 4.07 | -0.19 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 3.27 | 4.33 | 1.06 | 4.14 | 0.87 | 3.74 | 0.47 | 3.9 | 5.45 | 1.55 | 5.27 | 1.37 | 4.67 | 0.77 |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | 3.89 | 5.32 | 1.43 | 5.04 | 1.15 | 5.23 | 1.34 | 3.56 | 5.68 | 2.12 | 5.13 | 1.57 | 4.37 | 0.81 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 4.5 | 4.46 | -0.04 | 4.28 | -0.22 | 4.55 | 0.05 | 4.99 | 4.44 | -0.55 | 4.25 | -0.74 | 5.14 | 0.15 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 3.94 | 3.78 | -0.16 | 3.71 | -0.23 | 3.73 | -0.21 | 6.33 | 3.13 | -3.2 | 2.77 | -3.56 | 4.45 | -1.88 |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 4.41 | 3.53 | -0.88 | 3.68 | -0.73 | 4.57 | 0.16 | 4.11 | 3.74 | -0.37 | 3.67 | -0.44 | 4.92 | 0.81 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | ANA | 4.5 | 4.02 | -0.48 | 3.83 | -0.67 | 4.02 | -0.48 | 3.73 | 4.33 | 0.6 | 4.19 | 0.46 | 4.08 | 0.35 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 3.43 | 4.52 | 1.09 | 4.4 | 0.97 | 4.88 | 1.45 | 3.03 | 4.62 | 1.59 | 4.5 | 1.47 | 4.5 | 1.47 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 3.54 | 4.22 | 0.68 | 4.2 | 0.66 | 4.3 | 0.76 | 3.38 | 4.26 | 0.88 | 4.2 | 0.82 | 4.65 | 1.27 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 4.82 | 4.01 | -0.81 | 3.88 | -0.94 | 3.73 | -1.09 | 6.82 | 4.3 | -2.52 | 4.12 | -2.7 | 4.01 | -2.81 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 3.93 | 4.58 | 0.65 | 4.63 | 0.7 | 4.43 | 0.5 | 3.1 | 4.68 | 1.58 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 4.43 | 1.33 |
| Nate Karns | SEA | 4.23 | 4.13 | -0.1 | 3.96 | -0.27 | 3.64 | -0.59 | 5.33 | 4.45 | -0.88 | 4.44 | -0.89 | 3.05 | -2.28 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 4.5 | 5.39 | 0.89 | 5.2 | 0.7 | 4.44 | -0.06 | 3.23 | 5.63 | 2.4 | 5.11 | 1.88 | 4.26 | 1.03 |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | 4.39 | 4.68 | 0.29 | 4.61 | 0.22 | 4.55 | 0.16 | 5.46 | 4.93 | -0.53 | 4.87 | -0.59 | 4.97 | -0.49 |
Marcus Stroman has stranded just 63.6% of his runners. This is a number that should course correct itself and improve five to 10 points over the course of the season. Finally, some good news!
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 21.0 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 0.290 | 0.316 | 0.026 | 0.257 | 5.3% | 93.8% |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 0.306 | 0.293 | -0.013 | 0.263 | 11.1% | 92.9% |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | 0.291 | 0.248 | -0.043 | 0.257 | 5.6% | 87.2% |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 0.326 | 0.314 | -0.012 | 0.22 | 7.3% | 86.1% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.283 | 0.302 | 0.019 | 0.197 | 14.3% | 87.7% |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 0.301 | 0.288 | -0.013 | 0.18 | 13.5% | 91.2% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | ANA | 0.295 | 0.277 | -0.018 | 0.19 | 12.2% | 90.5% |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 0.295 | 0.254 | -0.041 | 0.206 | 15.4% | 90.2% |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 0.279 | 0.262 | -0.017 | 0.207 | 10.5% | 92.7% |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 0.278 | 0.303 | 0.025 | 0.188 | 3.6% | 91.2% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 0.295 | 0.324 | 0.029 | 0.192 | 11.1% | 85.6% |
| Nate Karns | SEA | 0.286 | 0.327 | 0.041 | 0.253 | 11.7% | 86.8% |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 0.307 | 0.309 | 0.002 | 0.222 | 16.7% | 88.3% |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | 0.303 | 0.257 | -0.046 | 0.179 | 8.6% | 92.4% |
Nate Karns has a BABIP 41 points above his career rate and nearly as much above his career rate. A high line drive rate is likely the cause of this, but the good news is that the rest of his profile looks fine and LD rate is a descriptive stat that varies wildly. It has not affected his ERA much because his 10.0 HR/FB is actually low this year.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
To help illustrate how ugly today’s options are, perhaps tonight’s top pitcher might have made the tail end of Tier Four last night with the rest residing somewhere in the middle of the No Thank You section above. In fact, we’re going to skip Tier One altogether, lest it give you the wrong idea what I actually like anyone tonight.
Value Tier One
Nobody is deemed worthy tonight.
Value Tier Two
Gio Gonzalez (1) is the most expensive pitcher tonight and he’s in a good spot against a weak offense, while being just one of two pitchers that strikes outs batters at higher than a league average rate tonight. Would be nice if he could give you at least six innings consistently though.
Value Tier Three
Marcus Stroman (2t) has had a disappointing season from a bat missing and run prevention standpoint. What else is there? His ERA should improve just by his strand rate regressing and though he’s in a pretty rough spot, he does have the second highest ground ball rate in the majors, which should help him here. He’s not cheap on FanDuel ($8K) and maybe drops a tier, but is almost screaming “TAKE ME” for $5.7K on DraftKings.
Nate Karns (2t) should be the upside pick tonight as one of only two pitchers with an above average strikeout rate and the highest K% on the board in fact with a good matchup and costing just $8K. However, his inability to consistently throw strikes often gets him knocked out of the game sometime before he completes six innings. If he is able to pitch into the 7th inning, as he has four times this year, he probably jumps to the top of the board.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Jhoulys Chacin because we’re not going to find much good tonight. We’re just trying to survive and he keeps the ball on the ground, facing an offense that has been below average vs RHP. Occasionally, he’ll strike out a few batters and he’s cheap. Bump him down on DraftKings for $7.1K, where I might not even be inclined to use him at all. Bump him up for $5.9K on FanDuel. So, no, he’s not even really in this tier.
Ervin Santana has not been good, but he costs just above $6K, has a decent matchup, has been inducing more weak contact and missing more bats than most people probably realized.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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