Daily Pitcher Breakdown: March 31st
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samardzija | CHC | PIT | 213.2 | 4.34 | 3.60 | 1.35 | 42.4% | 23.4% | 8.5% | 1.05 | 1.53 |
| Liriano | PIT | CHC | 161.0 | 3.02 | 3.50 | 1.22 | 65.4% | 24.5% | 9.5% | 0.50 | 1.99 |
| Shields | KCR | DET | 228.2 | 3.15 | 3.85 | 1.24 | 64.7% | 20.7% | 7.2% | 0.79 | 1.18 |
| Verlander | DET | KCR | 218.1 | 3.46 | 3.68 | 1.32 | 44.1% | 23.5% | 8.1% | 0.78 | 0.99 |
| Strasburg | WAS | NYM | 183.0 | 3.00 | 3.17 | 1.05 | 53.3% | 26.1% | 7.7% | 0.79 | 1.66 |
| Gee | NYM | WAS | 199.0 | 3.62 | 4.14 | 1.28 | 50.0% | 16.9% | 5.6% | 1.09 | 1.13 |
| Lee | PHI | TEX | 222.2 | 2.87 | 2.90 | 1.01 | 58.1% | 25.3% | 3.7% | 0.89 | 1.33 |
| Scheppers | TEX | PHI | 76.2 | 1.88 | 3.55 | 1.08 | 19.5% | 8.0% | 0.70 | 1.63 | |
| Teheran | ATL | MIL | 185.2 | 3.20 | 3.62 | 1.18 | 50.0% | 22.0% | 5.8% | 1.07 | 0.92 |
| Gallardo | MIL | ATL | 180.2 | 4.18 | 4.05 | 1.37 | 45.2% | 18.6% | 8.5% | 0.90 | 1.78 |
| Lester | BOS | BAL | 213.1 | 3.75 | 3.97 | 1.30 | 45.5% | 19.6% | 7.4% | 0.80 | 1.27 |
| Tillman | BAL | BOS | 206.1 | 3.71 | 3.95 | 1.22 | 48.5% | 21.2% | 8.1% | 1.44 | 0.97 |
| Nolasco | MIN | CWS | 199.1 | 3.70 | 3.72 | 1.21 | 45.5% | 19.8% | 5.5% | 0.77 | 1.32 |
| Sale | CWS | MIN | 214.1 | 3.07 | 2.96 | 1.07 | 60.0% | 26.1% | 5.3% | 0.97 | 1.46 |
| Wainwright | STL | CIN | 241.2 | 2.94 | 3.01 | 1.07 | 50.0% | 22.9% | 3.7% | 0.56 | 1.78 |
| Cueto | CIN | STL | 60.2 | 2.82 | 3.55 | 1.06 | 45.5% | 21.1% | 7.4% | 1.04 | 2.10 |
| Dickey | TOR | TBR | 224.2 | 4.21 | 4.18 | 1.24 | 44.1% | 18.8% | 7.5% | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Price | TBR | TOR | 186.2 | 3.33 | 3.43 | 1.10 | 55.6% | 20.4% | 3.7% | 0.77 | 1.35 |
| De La Rosa | COL | MIA | 167.2 | 3.49 | 4.45 | 1.39 | 50.0% | 15.7% | 8.7% | 0.59 | 1.71 |
| Fernandez | MIA | COL | 172.2 | 2.19 | 3.22 | 0.98 | 64.3% | 27.5% | 8.5% | 0.52 | 1.36 |
| Bumgarner | SFG | ARI | 201.1 | 2.77 | 3.41 | 1.03 | 64.5% | 24.8% | 7.7% | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| McCarthy | ARI | SFG | 135.0 | 4.53 | 4.08 | 1.35 | 36.4% | 13.2% | 3.6% | 0.87 | 1.78 |
| Hernandez | SEA | LAA | 204.1 | 3.04 | 2.84 | 1.13 | 61.3% | 26.3% | 5.6% | 0.66 | 1.89 |
| Weaver | LAA | SEA | 154.1 | 3.27 | 4.22 | 1.14 | 58.3% | 18.5% | 5.8% | 0.99 | 0.66 |
| Masterson | CLE | OAK | 193.0 | 3.45 | 3.40 | 1.20 | 55.2% | 24.3% | 9.5% | 0.61 | 2.40 |
| Gray | OAK | CLE | 64.0 | 2.67 | 3.11 | 1.11 | 60.0% | 25.7% | 7.7% | 0.56 | 1.92 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
Justin Verlander, DET (v. KC) – Verlander righted the ship in September and October of last year, but then his Opening Day was in doubt when he had core muscle surgery. Instead, he blitzed through the Grapefruit League looking like the Vintage Verlander we’ve been used to for the last several years and he appears poised for a huge season. He’s never had much trouble with the Royals, including a 3.27 ERA against them last year in six starts.
Jose Fernandez, MIA (v. COL) – Everyone knows about the home/road splits of the Rockies and while some guys can individually overcome it, they have been known to regress further than most teams when on the road. Obviously their difference in home/road OPS will be substantial because of Coors, but they turned into a below average team on the road last year. Facing one of baseball’s pitchers in a pitching-friendly park isn’t a good way to buck that trend.
Chris Sale, CWS (v. MIN) – The Twins were below average against lefties last year with a 697 OPS that slotted them 18th in baseball. They did have their first taste of success against Sale with a 5 IP/4 ER outing in mid-June, but Sale bounced back with a 7 IP/3 ER (and 8 Ks) win in mid-August, though that raised his career ERA to 2.20 against the Twins in 41 career IP.
Francisco Liriano, PIT (v. CHC) – There is a lot of intrigue with Liriano as he tries to follow up an excellent debut in Pittsburgh with another big season. A lot of his success last year was built on the destruction of lefties and with platoons the Cubs could have just one in the lineup (Anthony Rizzo), yet that didn’t stop Liriano from trouncing the Cubbies in five outings with a 2.12 ERA in 34 IP with righties mustering a meager 557 OPS.
Stephen Strasburg, WAS (at NYM) – Is this the year? Will Strasburg be the transcendent superstud for 200+ innings this year? Well we don’t really care about that answer when deciding our single game lineups, but I do think we get a Cy Young worthy effort from him in 2014 including a hot start today against the Mets.
David Price, TB (v. TOR) – Price handles the Jays regardless of venue, but he really ramps it up in the more pitching-friendly home environment of Tropicana Field. He’s held them to a 1.52 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 65 IP in Tampa Bay over his career. He got them at home just once last year and had a solid 8 IP/2 ER (4 R in all) effort with 8 Ks in a no-decision. I think the 2012 Cy Young winner has been a bit overlooked in the realm of aces this offseason at the fantasy draft table, but I’m seeing a huge season.
Jered Weaver, LAA (v. SEA) – What Weaver lacks in strikeouts, he makes up for with innings. Weaver lasted at five innings in all 24 of his outings last year and went 6+ in 20 of them. Not only does this usually mean he’s throwing well, but it also keeps him in line to pull down more Ws, which can be extremely beneficial at some daily sites. I love someone like Weaver at a site like DraftDay that offers up 10 points for a W. He won’t be a super-popular pick with so many studs throwing today, but he could be a cheaper option (relatively speaking) who delivers 7 or 8 IP gem.
Adam Wainwright, StL (at CIN) – He had mixed success against Cincy last year with two gems and two absolute duds, but he’s one of the best in the game and he can be trusted against anyone. Plus the Reds lineup lost a major cog in Shin-Soo Choo and I’m not sure it’s all that scary outside of Joey Votto and Jay Bruce.
Felix Hernandez, SEA (at LAA) – I’m among the small contingent that is betting on a rebound for the Angels in 2014, although it’s a growing contingent as the Rangers seem to lose someone daily. However, despite my confidence in the Angels for the season, they draw a toughie in the opener. Hernandez has had mixed success against the Angels in his career, but last year was definitely on the plus side when he posted a 2.90 ERA in 31 IP with 33 Ks and a 1.10 WHIP.
Madison Bumgarner, SF (at ARI) – So many studs! MadBum didn’t appreciate how the Diamondbacks treated him in 2012 (6.61 ERA in 16.3 IP) so he responded with an obscene 1.39 ERA in 32.3 IP across five starts last year. While he does fare better against them in AT&T Ballpark, he has a 3.38 ERA and 1.16 WHIP for his career at Chase Field. The Diamondbacks have a strong lineup so it won’t be easy for Bumgarner, but I could still see myself using him in a particular lineup.
R.A. Dickey, TOR (at TB) – Dickey loves Tropicana Field! He has a career 2.79 ERA there in 42 IP including a one-hitter during his 2012 Cy Young season. Despite his struggles in his debut season with the Jays, he still handled the Rays in Tropicana with a 2.45 ERA in 22 IP across three starts, maybe the Rays are the AL East team he should’ve joined (although he was traded so it wasn’t really his choice).
SOLID BUYS:
This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.
Sonny Gray, OAK (v. CLE) – A pair of injuries opened the door for Gray to draw an Opening Day nod after a strong debut last year. He draws a solid Cleveland lineup, but does so at home where he had a 1.99 ERA in 40.7 IP with a 0.93 WHIP and 4.8 K/BB ratio.
Cliff Lee, PHI (at TEX) – Lee didn’t have any issues pitching in Arlington when he was a Ranger (2.92 ERA in 61.7 IP), but he didn’t have to face their daunting lineup. Under no circumstance would I be surprised if he went out and rolled them, but with such a bounty of options there’s no real reason to mess with him here when there is at least tinge of downside.
Julio Teheran, ATL (at MIL) – Lost in the shuffle of Jose Fernandez in his own division and the 200 Cardinals rookies tearing it up was the fact that this one-time blue chip prospect started paying major dividends with a huge 2013 season. There is room to grow for the 23-year old righty, too, and I think a lot of that growth comes via additional strikeouts. He held his own in one start at Miller Park last year with a 6.3 IP/2 ER effort, though he did earn the loss.
Jeff Samardzija, CHC (at PIT) – The Shark has owned the Pirates throughout his career and that isn’t just built off of his relief work. He has a 2.34 ERA in seven starts against them the last two years. Additionally, he is a huge strikeout asset with at least five in 29 of his 33 starts and seven or more in 15 of them. This protects him a bit from the complete disaster outing.
Jorge de la Rosa, COL (at MIA) – DLR was the odd bird who excelled in Coors and actually sputtered on the road. He had a 2.76 ERA in 14 starts at Coors, but just a 4.19 on the road. That said, I’m not afraid of anyone in Miami’s lineup outside of Giancarlo Stanton. Just don’t get beat by him.
James Shields, KC (at DET) – Shields hasn’t had too much success against the Tigers in his career and his first year in their division wasn’t too fun for him. They hung a 4.96 ERA on him in 32.7 IP with a 1.50 WHIP and just a 2.1 K/BB ratio. As with Lee, just too many better options to mess around here.
USE CAUTION:
Jon Lester, BOS (at BAL) – Lester owns the Orioles over his career with a 2.94 ERA in 156.3 IP, but when you look closer you see that they’ve tipped the scales a bit back in their favor since putting together a potent lineup. In 2012-2013, Lester has a 4.50 ERA and 1.47 WHIP against them in 42 IP.
Justin Masterson, CLE (at OAK) – Masterson had his best year against lefties with a 698 OPS against them after showing an inability to consistently get them out in his five years before that including an 825 in 2012. If the gains are real, then he should have another great season, but I’m still a bit skeptical and you know the A’s will load up against him as they love using platoons.
Johnny Cueto, CIN (v. STL) – He’s been better against the Cardinals the last two years he has faced them (2011-2012), but he has a career 4.66 ERA against them in 83 IP. That Cardinal offense was devastating last year and they filled their biggest hole – shortstop – with a bat-first guy in Jhonny Peralta.
Dillon Gee, NYM (v. WAS) / Ricky Nolasco, MIN (at CWS) – Both of these just come down to the fact that they just aren’t special on a slate full of special arms. You’ll make up for it with a stronger offense since they will be cheaper, but I think with so many studs going you kinda have to get on that train today.
Chris Tillman, BAL (v. BOS) – I’m a big Tillman fan overall, but his home run issues are worrisome. It makes him a volatile daily game play and facing the reigning champs isn’t exactly a fun draw.
Yovani Gallardo, MIL (v. ATL) – Gallardo labored through 2013 and a big difference was that he wasn’t missing bats at the same rates as before. I just want to see something before getting back on this bandwagon.
Brandon McCarthy, ARI (v. SF) – He had a rough year last year and while I’m not exactly afraid of the Giants lineup, I just don’t see a ton of upside with using McCarthy today. Sure you’ll save money, but you could be well behind your opponents if he doesn’t pull a gem out. Plus, he doesn’t miss many bats.
Tanner Scheppers, TEX (v. PHI) – What would the odds have been that Scheppers would be the Opening Day starter for the Rangers had you proposed such at any point in the winter? 5000/1? 1000000/1?? The Phillies aren’t exactly a potent lineup, but this is Scheppers’ first big league start. No thanks.
Pitcher Stats Against and Advanced Stats
| Pitcher | wOBA L | ERA L | wOBA R | ERA R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samardzija | 0.344 | 4.63 | 0.311 | 4.23 | 0.241 | 0.693 | 0.314 | 3.77 | 0.254 | 104.91 | 62.9% |
| Liriano | 0.151 | 1.86 | 0.310 | 3.43 | 0.232 | 0.687 | 0.290 | 2.92 | 0.222 | 96.00 | 62.3% |
| Shields | 0.276 | 2.99 | 0.331 | 3.43 | 0.290 | 0.786 | 0.298 | 3.47 | 0.247 | 107.56 | 62.6% |
| Verlander | 0.295 | 3.03 | 0.325 | 4.18 | 0.258 | 0.686 | 0.316 | 3.28 | 0.251 | 108.59 | 66.0% |
| Strasburg | 0.287 | 3.83 | 0.251 | 2.37 | 0.236 | 0.667 | 0.263 | 3.21 | 0.205 | 95.03 | 63.3% |
| Gee | 0.359 | 4.62 | 0.293 | 2.90 | 0.255 | 0.721 | 0.296 | 4.00 | 0.264 | 93.28 | 65.8% |
| Lee | 0.246 | 2.55 | 0.287 | 2.98 | 0.266 | 0.746 | 0.287 | 2.82 | 0.230 | 104.94 | 70.8% |
| Scheppers | 0.274 | 1.51 | 0.285 | 2.08 | 0.252 | 0.690 | 0.252 | 3.74 | 0.214 | 14.26 | 64.2% |
| Teheran | 0.359 | 4.40 | 0.262 | 2.23 | 0.247 | 0.691 | 0.288 | 3.69 | 0.242 | 96.17 | 66.7% |
| Gallardo | 0.323 | 4.32 | 0.315 | 4.11 | 0.252 | 0.727 | 0.299 | 3.89 | 0.256 | 98.32 | 60.3% |
| Lester | 0.294 | 3.78 | 0.317 | 3.77 | 0.260 | 0.730 | 0.300 | 3.59 | 0.252 | 107.85 | 64.2% |
| Tillman | 0.327 | 3.96 | 0.311 | 3.46 | 0.283 | 0.813 | 0.269 | 4.42 | 0.238 | 105.36 | 63.9% |
| Nolasco | 0.319 | 4.11 | 0.291 | 3.34 | 0.251 | 0.681 | 0.299 | 3.34 | 0.251 | 93.62 | 63.6% |
| Sale | 0.174 | 2.22 | 0.309 | 3.31 | 0.253 | 0.694 | 0.289 | 3.17 | 0.228 | 108.27 | 66.9% |
| Wainwright | 0.281 | 3.37 | 0.281 | 2.53 | 0.252 | 0.717 | 0.305 | 2.55 | 0.244 | 103.91 | 67.5% |
| Cueto | 0.258 | 2.70 | 0.285 | 2.97 | 0.280 | 0.750 | 0.236 | 3.81 | 0.206 | 87.09 | 64.4% |
| Dickey | 0.335 | 4.45 | 0.302 | 4.02 | 0.251 | 0.735 | 0.265 | 4.58 | 0.240 | 103.09 | 65.4% |
| Price | 0.220 | 2.72 | 0.311 | 3.60 | 0.240 | 0.674 | 0.298 | 3.03 | 0.251 | 100.26 | 68.8% |
| De La Rosa | 0.235 | 1.60 | 0.344 | 4.05 | 0.233 | 0.658 | 0.303 | 3.76 | 0.263 | 92.47 | 61.9% |
| Fernandez | 0.256 | 2.76 | 0.224 | 1.63 | 0.270 | 0.750 | 0.240 | 2.73 | 0.180 | 93.18 | 66.4% |
| Bumgarner | 0.217 | 2.12 | 0.275 | 3.01 | 0.258 | 0.694 | 0.251 | 3.05 | 0.199 | 103.35 | 63.9% |
| McCarthy | 0.317 | 4.09 | 0.353 | 5.04 | 0.262 | 0.703 | 0.320 | 3.75 | 0.292 | 91.32 | 68.7% |
| Hernandez | 0.297 | 3.50 | 0.270 | 2.56 | 0.267 | 0.738 | 0.314 | 2.61 | 0.239 | 102.42 | 63.9% |
| Weaver | 0.283 | 3.41 | 0.318 | 3.05 | 0.241 | 0.712 | 0.268 | 3.82 | 0.236 | 99.83 | 64.0% |
| Masterson | 0.316 | 4.01 | 0.238 | 2.75 | 0.252 | 0.736 | 0.285 | 3.35 | 0.220 | 94.31 | 62.8% |
| Gray | 0.281 | 2.95 | 0.222 | 2.33 | 0.247 | 0.720 | 0.276 | 2.70 | 0.212 | 82.92 | 62.6% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries: March 31
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window