Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Monday, August 22nd
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kazmir | LAD | CIN | 315.2 | 3.65 | 4.09 | 1.25 | 63.2% | 21.6% | 8.1% | 1.17 | 1.15 |
| Bailey | CIN | LAD | 31 | 4.35 | 3.83 | 1.52 | 31.6% | 21.9% | 7.3% | 1.16 | 1.73 |
| Fister | HOU | PIT | 249 | 3.94 | 4.71 | 1.35 | 58.3% | 14.9% | 6.9% | 1.16 | 1.31 |
| Taillon | PIT | HOU | 66 | 3.00 | 3.49 | 1.09 | 19.8% | 3.4% | 0.95 | 2.26 | |
| Strasburg | WAS | BAL | 272.2 | 3.53 | 3.01 | 1.11 | 52.4% | 30.0% | 6.3% | 0.96 | 1.11 |
| Bundy | BAL | WAS | 75 | 3.36 | 3.94 | 1.29 | 22.2% | 7.0% | 1.32 | 0.84 | |
| Price | BOS | TBR | 390 | 3.21 | 3.40 | 1.16 | 52.4% | 24.7% | 5.3% | 0.88 | 1.25 |
| Snell | TBR | BOS | 61.2 | 3.06 | 4.56 | 1.54 | 24.0% | 12.7% | 0.44 | 1.19 | |
| Nelson | MIL | COL | 319.1 | 4.20 | 4.45 | 1.38 | 18.7% | 9.5% | 1.04 | 1.68 | |
| Foltynewicz | ATL | ARI | 175.2 | 5.07 | 4.31 | 1.47 | 19.7% | 7.3% | 1.59 | 0.93 | |
| Godley | ARI | ATL | 88.2 | 4.16 | 4.18 | 1.29 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.02 | 1.69 | |
| Carrasco | CLE | OAK | 299.2 | 3.51 | 3.07 | 1.08 | 27.7% | 6.1% | 1.08 | 1.60 | |
| Triggs | OAK | CLE | 43.1 | 4.98 | 3.44 | 1.38 | 21.1% | 6.3% | 0.83 | 2.37 | |
| Lester | CHC | SDP | 353 | 3.14 | 3.40 | 1.10 | 65.0% | 24.9% | 6.2% | 0.89 | 1.54 |
| Jackson | SDP | CHC | 102.2 | 4.12 | 4.78 | 1.32 | 15.0% | 16.1% | 9.9% | 0.79 | 1.10 |
| Pineda | NYY | SEA | 297 | 4.61 | 3.26 | 1.28 | 75.0% | 24.7% | 4.7% | 1.27 | 1.52 |
| Martin | SEA | NYY | 45 | 6.40 | 4.32 | 1.60 | 16.9% | 7.5% | 1.60 | 1.02 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
There are a few high-end pitchers who are toeing the rubber today, but recent speedbumps have sullied the confidence to commit all of one’s chips to any one hurler on tonight’s slate. There are some pitchers who would have qualified for the upper-most tier if it were a different point in the season, or if facing a different opponent, but we are in the eye of a perfect storm that give one pause no matter the pitcher in question.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Jon Lester CHC (at SD) – Of the pitchers that are in his cohort for today, Lester comes the closest to All-In status due to his combination of baseline performance, weak opponent and the fact that he is currently on a four-game run of allowing two or fewer runs while pitching six or more innings. His composite stats over the last four outings include a 1.75 ERA and 28:5 K:BB over 25.2 innings, with just 18 hits (two homers) allowed during that stretch. He’s only had the pleasure of facing the Pads one other time this season, and while it wasn’t a bad game, Lester’s final line certainly fell short of expectation: three runs over 6.0 frames, including four strikeouts against one walk and four base hits, one of which left the yard. That’s a pretty sick floor for tonight’s expected performance, and it looks like he is past the case of hiccups that Lester experienced in July.
Editor’s Note: Stephen Strasburg has been scratched. A.J. Cole will start in his place tonight.
Stephen Strasburg WAS (at BAL) – In his last start, Stras coughed up nine runs (all earned) without escaping the second inning against the Rockies at Coors Field. It’s tempting to chalk up the performance to high-altitude hijinks, but that was an especially horrific outing for anybody, let alone a Cy Young contender who carried a 3.18 ERA at Coors into the contest. The trouble actually started three turns ago, in which Stras gave up four runs and eight hits to the Giants in just 4.2 frames; he followed that up with an even worse performance, surrendering six runs to the lowly Braves on seven hits (two homers) and two walks in just 5.1 innings pitched. So he’s now given up 19 runs over his last 11.2 innings, all earned, and though he has an impressive 18 strikeouts over that stretch, it has hardly been enough to make up for the disappointing stats in virtually every other category. Now he faces the powerful Orioles in the home run haven of Camden Yards, adding to his hellish context for tonight’s outing.
Carlos Carrasco CLE (at OAK) – Carrasco’s recent slump has not reached the depths of Strasburg, but the runs have been crossing the plate with regularity over Carrasco’s last five starts. Three of the five involved three runs apiece, with enough innings to earn the quality start in each turn, but that is typically the right-hander’s floor rather than his ceiling. The other two starts turned out even worse, bottoming out in an eight-run effort (with just one strikeout) against the Twins at the beginning of the month. All told, his ERA over the last five starts is 6.23, with a home run given up in every start and at least eight hits allowed in three of his last four games. Carrasco has turned up the fire on his K count lately, with 28 strikeouts over his last three games (20.2 innings), and the Ks have enabled Carrasco to score between 22 and 25 points in each contest despite mediocre numbers in the other categories.
Jameson Taillon PIT (vs. HOU) – The rookie keeps rolling. He’s tossed six consecutive quality starts since returning from the disabled list, seven in a row if going before the DL stint, and over the 44 innings of those seven starts he has a tidy 2.25 ERA and 37 strikeouts against just four walks (0.8 BB/9). The K rate is rather pedestrian, but the low walk count is downright elite, and his 39 hits allowed over the 44 frames (including three homers) indicate that he hasn’t been victimised by throwing pitches in the strike zone. He tossed a baseline quality start against the Giants his last time out, and though the Astros have the type of offense that can explode at any given time – like the 27 runs that they scored across two games in Baltimore this past weekend – they are also prone to high counts of batter Ks. The latter bodes well for Taillon, who hasn’t struck out more than seven batters in any of his 11 starts this year, opening the possibility that he establishes a new career-high in single-game strikeouts in tonight’s contest.
David Price BOS (at TB) – Price has struggled through most of this season, and though things have calmed down a bit over the last month, we are still not seeing the Cy-worthy version of Price that we have come to expect over the last five years. He has an ERA of 3.81 over the past month, with 27 hits and five homers allowed in four starts, including a 20:6 K:BB in 26.0 innings. He’s give up three or more runs in three of his past four starts, and though he is coming off an impressive one-run, four-hit performance against the Orioles in Baltimore, Price had given up seven or more hits in his previous six outings, including double-digit safeties in three of those games. He faces his old teammates today, and the last time he faced the Rays was also his last dominant start, firing eight scoreless frames and striking out 10 batters; but before we get too excited, the Rays also hung an eight-burger on Price in just 3.2 innings back in April. He makes the Raise group, but just barely.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kazmir | 0.302 | 3.90 | 0.310 | 3.56 | 0.245 | 0.710 | 0.280 | 4.18 | 0.238 | 95.20 | 21.6% |
| Bailey | 0.422 | 5.06 | 0.290 | 3.98 | 0.251 | 0.743 | 0.363 | 4.05 | 0.296 | 89.33 | 21.9% |
| Fister | 0.348 | 4.44 | 0.304 | 3.38 | 0.259 | 0.725 | 0.292 | 4.54 | 0.268 | 81.94 | 14.9% |
| Taillon | 0.307 | 2.63 | 0.263 | 3.49 | 0.249 | 0.745 | 0.289 | 3.41 | 0.249 | 0.02 | 19.8% |
| Strasburg | 0.264 | 3.14 | 0.298 | 3.94 | 0.262 | 0.775 | 0.301 | 2.90 | 0.224 | 95.35 | 30.0% |
| Bundy | 0.307 | 3.16 | 0.329 | 3.62 | 0.250 | 0.730 | 0.306 | 4.23 | 0.259 | 44.59 | 22.2% |
| Price | 0.298 | 2.88 | 0.288 | 3.32 | 0.256 | 0.748 | 0.307 | 3.10 | 0.244 | 104.79 | 24.7% |
| Snell | 0.289 | 2.30 | 0.311 | 3.33 | 0.276 | 0.774 | 0.333 | 3.34 | 0.25 | 0.02 | 24.0% |
| Bettis | 0.330 | 4.54 | 0.350 | 5.08 | 0.251 | 0.711 | 0.323 | 4.06 | 0.278 | 0.00 | 18.1% |
| Nelson | 0.361 | 5.21 | 0.295 | 3.39 | 0.271 | 0.782 | 0.291 | 4.53 | 0.251 | 93.40 | 18.7% |
| Foltynewicz | 0.380 | 5.63 | 0.336 | 4.62 | 0.263 | 0.737 | 0.322 | 4.82 | 0.282 | 0.00 | 19.7% |
| Godley | 0.286 | 3.86 | 0.330 | 4.44 | 0.252 | 0.683 | 0.285 | 4.25 | 0.244 | 58.65 | 19.5% |
| Carrasco | 0.296 | 3.15 | 0.282 | 3.83 | 0.250 | 0.706 | 0.288 | 3.30 | 0.226 | 92.61 | 27.7% |
| Triggs | 0.324 | 5.89 | 0.325 | 4.32 | 0.257 | 0.745 | 0.336 | 3.54 | 0.274 | 0.00 | 21.1% |
| Lester | 0.276 | 3.08 | 0.286 | 3.15 | 0.248 | 0.714 | 0.285 | 3.27 | 0.228 | 0.00 | 24.9% |
| Jackson | 0.295 | 3.12 | 0.313 | 4.85 | 0.250 | 0.744 | 0.270 | 4.23 | 0.238 | 26.93 | 16.1% |
| Pineda | 0.325 | 4.18 | 0.331 | 4.96 | 0.250 | 0.738 | 0.333 | 3.57 | 0.27 | 95.16 | 24.7% |
| Martin | 0.404 | 7.98 | 0.383 | 5.64 | 0.249 | 0.731 | 0.348 | 5.14 | 0.311 | 0.00 | 16.9% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Dylan Bundy BAL (vs. WAS) – Bundy was on a great string of run-preventing starts, with just a 1.84 ERA over his previous five turns heading into his last start versus the Red Sox, but then Boston roughed him up for five runs on nine hits (including two homers) over 4.1 innings. It was only the second time that he had fallen short of 5.0 innings since the O’s had bumped him up to the rotation, despite the fact that his pitch count has been kept at or under 92 throws in each contest, though he had only spun 6.0 or more frames twice in his seven starts due to the limited pitch count. He had 32 strikeouts against five walks in 29.1 innings over those five games leading up to the Boston massacre but just two whiffs versus the Red Sox. The Sawx have made mincemeat out of just about every pitcher they’ve faced, so perhaps Bundy deserves a mulligan for his last turn, but be forewarned that he will face Boston often in the gauntlet of the AL East.
Michael Pineda NYY (at SEA) – Pineda has been putting up impressive K:BB numbers all season, but the high frequency of hard contact has tarnished his ERA. He exited his August 5 start with a 5.17 ERA despite a K:BB of 149:36 over 125.1 innings, but things have been a bit different over his last two starts. Facing the powerful lineups of the Red Sox and Blue Jays, Pineda has allowed just two total earned runs over 11.0 frames, including a relatively pedestrian count of five strikeouts over that two-game stretch. The combination of few runs and low strikeouts against two ballclubs that excel in offensive explosions has some wondering if Pineda has altered his approach to encourage contact, but it might just be a blip on his radar. It is noteworthy that he needed just 89 pitches to complete six full frames against the Sawx and then got through 5.0 innings versus the Jays on a ridiculously-low 68 pitches, numbers that support the “pitch to contact” narrative, but we will need to see more than two starts to rebrand a pitcher who has been the poster boy for the anti-FIP movement for the past two seasons.
Doug Fister HOU (at PIT)
Blake Snell TB (vs. BOS) – The Blue Jays roughed up Snell for five runs on five hits and four walks in just 1.2 innings two starts ago, as the left-hander required 68 pitches just to get the five outs, but the game was an outlier in an otherwise sparkling run. Even with that game included, Snell carries a 2.50 ERA with an astounding 46 strikeouts over 36.0 innings of his last seven starts. The problem has been walks – 20 of them over the same stretch – and short outings, as he hasn’t thrown more than 5.1 innings in a game since July 24 and has only passed that mark in four of his 12 starts this season. The Rays are careful with his pitch counts, capping Snell at 104 pitches in any one ballgame this year, and the short leash combined with the high per-batter pitch counts that result in his high rates of strikeouts and walks leave him in the unenviable position of lacking stamina. He faces the top-notch offense of the Red Sox tonight, a team that knocked him around for four runs on eight hits and four more walks back in late June, and though a decent K count might spare his fantasy line, there is a chance that Snell gets beaten into the negatives for fantasy points on DraftKings.
Jimmy Nelson MIL (vs. COL)
Chad Bettis COL (at MIL)
Cody Martin SEA (vs. NYY)
Zack Godley ARI (vs. ATL)
Mike Foltynewicz ATL (at ARI)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Andrew Triggs OAK (vs. CLE)
Edwin Jackson SD (vs. CHC)
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