Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Monday, June 20th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-06-21 03:00:38

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Miller	ARI	PHI	251	3.76	4.49	1.36	21.1%	18.7%	9.5%	0.82	1.33
Hellickson	PHI	ARI	226.2	4.57	4.06	1.31		20.2%	6.8%	1.47	1.16
Bumgarner	SFG	PIT	312.1	2.62	3.10	1.01	47.6%	27.3%	5.2%	0.84	1.12
Locke	PIT	SFG	244.1	4.94	4.53	1.44	66.7%	15.9%	8.3%	0.99	1.74
Karns	SEA	DET	218	3.80	3.99	1.33		23.7%	9.6%	1.03	1.11
Pelfrey	DET	SEA	236	4.42	4.82	1.54		11.7%	7.2%	0.80	1.88
Bettis	COL	MIA	193.1	4.79	4.10	1.43		18.4%	7.2%	1.07	1.79
Nicolino	MIA	COL	129.2	4.51	5.39	1.37		9.2%	6.2%	0.90	1.20
Wright	BOS	CWS	162	3.06	4.50	1.20		18.7%	9.1%	0.89	1.16
Smyly	TBR	CLE	144.1	3.99	3.33	1.18	50.0%	27.9%	6.5%	1.62	0.71
Tomlin	CLE	TBR	140	3.15	3.86	0.99	23.1%	19.3%	2.7%	1.67	0.93
Garcia	STL	CHC	205.1	2.98	3.55	1.15	28.6%	19.2%	6.6%	0.53	2.74
Lackey	CHC	STL	306	2.74	3.75	1.13	57.9%	21.6%	6.0%	0.82	1.31
Gausman	BAL	TEX	175.1	4.21	3.78	1.25	37.5%	21.6%	6.2%	1.44	1.22
Holland	TEX	BAL	127	5.03	4.89	1.32		14.9%	7.5%	1.49	0.98
Chacin	LAA	HOU	95	4.55	4.28	1.32	18.2%	18.2%	7.9%	1.04	1.68
Fister	HOU	LAA	183	3.79	4.61	1.32	58.3%	14.5%	6.4%	1.23	1.36
Strasburg	WAS	LAD	220.1	3.23	2.80	1.09	52.4%	30.6%	5.6%	0.98	1.23
Kershaw	LAD	WAS	340.2	1.95	2.18	0.81	66.7%	34.0%	3.8%	0.55	1.76

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Clayton Kershaw LAD (vs. WAS) – Let’s see. He leads the majors in ERA, strikeouts, shutouts, innings, WHIP and FIP. He has both the lowest hit rate and lowest walk rate in all of baseball. He’s recorded double-digit Ks in nine of his last 11 starts. He’s only allowed more than two earned runs once this season, and that was back in April. If he retains the ERA lead, it will be the fifth time in six years that he has posted the lowest mark in all of baseball. He’s only given up seven walks total this season. With 10 wins already in the bag, Kersh is well on his way to winning the pitching triple crown in the National League for the second time in his career. He had set the bar so impossibly high that it seemed foolish to think that he could raise it, but that’s exactly what Kershaw is doing this season. Just sit back and enjoy the show.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Madison Bumgarner SF (at PIT) – Bumgarner is on the precipice of All-In status today, but the presence of Kershaw sitting atop the throne in addition to a worthy adversary in Strasburg keeps Mad Bum on the outside looking in. He might be the best value on the board when price tags are taken under consideration, depending on the DFS site of choice, and he’s not the worst zig option on a day when the vast majority of the DFS community will be rostering Kershaw. Bumgarner is having the best season of his career, posting the highest K rate and the lowest hot frequency of his tenure, helping to lop a full run off of last season’s ERA with a 1.91 mark this season. He’s only allowed more than one earned run in two of his last nine starts, both of which featured just two earnies apiece, and he hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs since Jackie Robinson Day. The throne at the top of today’s pitcher pool would be his if not for Kershaw and his own historic performance this season.

Stephen Strasburg WAS (at LAD) – His prospects of getting points for a Win today are a long shot, given that Stras is facing off against Kershaw tonight in Los Angeles, so build that into his scoring expectation. Otherwise, Strasburg is an excellent choice, a strikeout maven who has whiffed double-digit hitters in seven of his last 12 starts and recorded 11.4 K/9 on the campaign. He has been getting stung by the home run a bit lately, with nine bombs allowed in his last eight games, and his penchant for the longball has led to three separate instances of four runs allowed this season, though that has been the cap through 14 turns and he has yet to walk more than three batters in a single ballgame.

John Lackey CHC (vs. STL) – Lackey is the safe, boring option on a slate that includes fantasy studs Kershaw, Bumgarner and Strasburg, and though Lackey’s strikeout upside is theoretically lower than the big trio, the right-hander’s 9.3 K/9 this season is not only impressive on its own merit, but also would be a career high if over a full season and 1.7 K/9 higher than anything that he’s posted in nine years. His low walk rate has been remarkably consistent, finishing at either 2.1 or 2.2 BB/9 in each of the last five seasons (including this one). Silencing St. Louis is a daunting task for any pitcher, but in two games against the Cardinals this season Lackey has struck out 20 combined batters over 14.0 innings, with a total of three runs, eight hits and just two walks allowed. The former Card has no fear of his old teammates, to say the least.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Miller	0.340	3.98	0.280	3.56	0.241	0.675	0.291	4.03	0.247	0.00	18.7%
Hellickson	0.362	4.72	0.322	4.47	0.263	0.736	0.292	4.52	0.258	0.00	20.2%
Bumgarner	0.220	2.35	0.275	2.68	0.255	0.711	0.277	2.89	0.215	0.01	27.3%
Locke	0.336	5.76	0.332	4.67	0.265	0.713	0.306	4.36	0.272	0.00	15.9%
Karns	0.299	3.10	0.321	4.56	0.270	0.746	0.298	3.90	0.24	0.01	23.7%
Pelfrey	0.373	4.96	0.327	3.95	0.248	0.737	0.333	4.41	0.305	0.00	11.7%
Bettis	0.318	4.67	0.358	4.91	0.260	0.695	0.319	4.12	0.276	0.01	18.4%
Nicolino	0.302	5.59	0.348	4.20	0.254	0.701	0.295	4.57	0.284	0.00	9.2%
Gonzalez	0.356	4.81	0.333	4.93	0.272	0.768	0.304	4.86	0.271	0.01	17.9%
Wright	0.278	3.01	0.289	3.09	0.249	0.698	0.252	4.10	0.219	0.01	18.7%
Smyly	0.272	2.43	0.322	4.46	0.265	0.730	0.290	4.05	0.236	0.01	27.9%
Tomlin	0.245	2.30	0.337	3.93	0.243	0.708	0.240	4.40	0.229	0.01	19.3%
Garcia	0.290	3.38	0.269	2.88	0.246	0.727	0.283	3.21	0.236	0.01	19.2%
Lackey	0.313	2.73	0.261	2.74	0.265	0.759	0.285	3.40	0.237	0.00	21.6%
Gausman	0.278	2.83	0.362	5.54	0.258	0.740	0.291	4.24	0.252	0.01	21.6%
Holland	0.275	3.75	0.352	5.33	0.237	0.675	0.274	5.11	0.261	0.00	14.9%
Chacin	0.341	5.48	0.289	3.67	0.246	0.740	0.285	4.15	0.249	0.01	18.2%
Fister	0.342	4.08	0.314	3.45	0.253	0.715	0.287	4.64	0.267	0.00	14.5%
Strasburg	0.255	2.63	0.303	3.86	0.242	0.720	0.307	2.82	0.227	0.01	30.6%
Kershaw	0.209	1.86	0.223	1.99	0.266	0.775	0.269	1.88	0.186	0.01	34.0%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Steven Wright BOS (vs. CHW) – It’s about time that Wright has earned a bit of respect, including from yours truly. A 2.22 ERA over 89.1 innings will do that. He still hasn’t earned his way to the Raise tier, though, despite facing a weak White Sox lineup that has the third-lowest mark in the American League with just 4.07 runs scored per game. The reasons for this are three-fold: A) he has given up a bunch of unearned runs this season, and his RA is a less impressive (though still solid) 3.02 runs allowed per nine; 2) the lack of strikeouts will keep his fantasy upside in check, with a modest 7.5 K/9 this season; and D) knuckleballers aren’t to be trusted. His AL-leading rate of homers allowed per nine innings is destined for regression (the 0.4 HR/9 is half his career mark), like most knuckleball pitchers he walks too many hitters, and his low 6.6 H/9 is also destined for regression.

Drew Smyly TB (at CLE) – Smyly’s season was in a tailspin heading into his last start, but he posted his best game since April in striking out 12 and walking zero batters overs 6.2 innings against the Mariners. The home runs are still a problem, as the two that he gave up to the M’s put him at eight homers surrendered over his last five starts, but at least there was nobody on base when those baseballs left yard.

Josh Tomlin CLE (vs. TB) – His AL-low walk rate of 0.8 BB/9 help to keep the WHIP low and the homers from causing too much damage, which is necessary given that Tomlin serves up plenty of tater trots, giving up a home run in 10 of his 12 turns and 13 total bombs in 12 starts this season. Tomlin pitches to contact, registering just 50 strikeouts in 74.1 innings, and his success in run prevention is highly dependent on balls in play. So far so good this month, starting June with three consecutive quality starts after finishing May with an eight-run bruising at the hands of the Rangers. He’s given up just four runs in 19.2 innings this month, but his limited upside in DFS is exemplified by his meager 13 strikeouts over the same stretch.

Kevin Gausman BAL (at TEX) – Gausman was attracting attention from fantasy gamers in mid-May, with a 3.24 ERA through his first seven starts, including 37 strikeouts and just nine walks in his first 41.2 frames of the campaign. Then he embarked on a brutal stretch of opponents, a fate that has fallen upon many pitchers in the AL East this season, facing the Red Sox twice and the Blue Jays and Yankees once apiece over the span of four starts. He didn’t pitch terribly, but the stretch bumped his ERA by nearly a full run to its current 4.14, and he walked nearly as many batters (eight) over those 21.1 innings as he had in twice the frames prior to the AL East tour.

Nate Karns SEA (at DET) – There are two big knocks on Karns that conspire against him, and they’re interwoven in his limited value profile. First, he walks too many batters, including 4.2 BB/9 this season. Second, his lack pitch-count efficiency and limited usage patterns (he has thrown 97 pitches or fewer in each of his last seven games) have kept him at 5.1 innings or fewer in eight of his 13 starts, topping out at 7.0 frames in any one ballgame. When he does clear six full frames, it has been due to an uptick of efficiency and fewer runners crossing the plate, as all five of his qualifying turns have earned the quality start label. That has happened yet in June, though, as he has chewed up just 13.1 innings over three starts, with a 6.75 ERA and a painful 12 walks allowed, topping out at 5.0 innings. He has a strong K-per-inning rate, but the K count remains low because he is out of the game too early to rack up an impressive number. Facing the Tigers in Detroit will only exacerbate the issue.

Jeremy Hellickson PHI (vs. ARI)

Jaime Garcia STL (at CHC)

Jhoulys Chacin LAA (at HOU)

Shelby Miller ARI (at PHI)

Doug Fister HOU (vs. LAA)

Jeff Locke PIT (vs. SF)

Mike Pelfrey DET (vs. SEA)

Paul Clemens MIA (vs. COL)