Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Thursday, April 28th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bassitt | OAK | DET | 105.1 | 3.42 | 4.47 | 1.26 | 17.3% | 8.8% | 0.60 | 1.38 | |
| Sanchez | DET | OAK | 172.2 | 4.95 | 4.06 | 1.30 | 41.2% | 21.0% | 7.8% | 1.67 | 1.02 |
| Davies | MIL | CHC | 36.1 | 4.71 | 4.61 | 1.43 | 15.3% | 11.5% | 0.50 | 2.95 | |
| Lester | CHC | MIL | 225.1 | 3.24 | 3.18 | 1.10 | 65.0% | 25.0% | 5.7% | 0.72 | 1.68 |
| Nicasio | PIT | COL | 73.1 | 4.05 | 3.78 | 1.51 | 35.7% | 25.4% | 12.1% | 0.37 | 1.26 |
| Chatwood | COL | PIT | 19.1 | 2.79 | 3.75 | 1.14 | 25.0% | 15.0% | 2.5% | 0.93 | 1.89 |
| Nola | PHI | WAS | 96.2 | 4.00 | 3.46 | 1.17 | 23.1% | 5.6% | 1.30 | 1.37 | |
| Roark | WAS | PHI | 122 | 4.20 | 4.26 | 1.34 | 52.6% | 14.9% | 6.2% | 1.25 | 1.57 |
| Danks | CWS | BAL | 189 | 4.90 | 4.62 | 1.42 | 50.0% | 16.4% | 7.3% | 1.24 | 0.92 |
| Wilson | BAL | CWS | 42 | 3.00 | 4.93 | 1.29 | 9.4% | 6.4% | 0.21 | 1.59 | |
| Chacin | ATL | BOS | 38 | 3.08 | 3.50 | 1.13 | 18.2% | 22.9% | 6.5% | 0.95 | 1.55 |
| Buchholz | BOS | ATL | 122.1 | 3.75 | 3.49 | 1.26 | 33.3% | 22.6% | 5.6% | 0.66 | 1.47 |
| Wacha | STL | ARI | 197.2 | 3.32 | 3.96 | 1.23 | 53.3% | 20.2% | 7.3% | 0.87 | 1.49 |
| De La Rosa | ARI | STL | 198.1 | 4.90 | 4.17 | 1.38 | 57.1% | 18.6% | 7.8% | 1.54 | 1.53 |
| Fernandez | MIA | LAD | 75.1 | 3.23 | 2.67 | 1.15 | 75.0% | 31.5% | 5.8% | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Maeda | LAD | MIA | 19 | 0.47 | 3.64 | 0.95 | 20.6% | 5.5% | 0.47 | 1.53 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Jake Arrieta CHC (vs. MIL) – The Brewers-Cubs game was washed out yesterday, so we get the same matchup this afternoon for the series finale. Not much has changed since yesterday, so here’s what I said in the article from Wednesday: “On today’s slate, there’s Arrieta and then there’s everyone else. Fresh off a no-hitter in his last start, a performance that might have actually been his least dominant of the season, the right-handed Cy Young winner will be tasked with corralling a Brewers offense that has consisted of Ryan Braun and Chris Carter while on one of his random stretches where he can carry an offense. Overall, Milwaukee’s offense in the worst quarter of the league in strikeout rate, OPS and wOBA so far this season, so don’t be surprised when Arrieta fires another seven-plus innings of shutout baseball, as he has done in three of his four starts in 2016. We have yet to see a big-strikeout game from Arrieta, so maybe he’s due for a spike in the K department.”
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Jose Fernandez MIA (at LAD) – Based purely on talent alone, Fern deserves to be ranked right at the top, side-by-side with Jake Arrieta. However, Fern’s complete lack of efficiency has led to big pitch counts, high walk totals and relatively short outings in 2016. The Marlins have stated their desire to manage his workloads this season but thus far hey have done a poor job, given that raw pitch counts can be misleading and the specific case of each pitcher needs to be considered. Fern is a hard thrower who throws a taxing breaking ball and whose high-end fastball velocity naturally increases the joint loads of every pitch, and given his status as still working back from Tommy John surgery, the high-pitch innings and high frequency of the breaking pitch (over 30 percent) are thwarting any attempts to be careful by keeping a cap on his per-game total of pitches. He’s walked 10 total batters over his last three turns, against 19 strikeouts in 17.0 frames. He has the upside to lap the field in terms of fantasy points on any given day, but the possibility of an abbreviated outing and less-than-impressive numbers have to be worked into the equation.
Kenta Maeda LAD (vs. MIA) – Maeda did the unthinkable, mastering the high altitude of Coors Field in his last start, giving up just three hits and one walk across 6.1 innings, with eight strikeouts and zero runs allowed on the day. His ERA on the season is a video game mark of 0.36. cementing his status as a pitcher to be feared in the National League and used with impunity on DFS rosters. The face-off between Maeda and Fernandez will offer the most entertaining baseball of the day, with all eyes tuned to Dodger Stadium. Maeda has a WHIP of just 0.868 this season, thanks to a K:BB ratio of 23:5 in 25.1 innings so far this season, with one of those walks being intentional. Baseball-Reference tracks a stat called ERA+, which is designed to put each pitcher’s ERA on a scale with the league average and adjusted for ballpark, with 100 being league average. Maeda’s ERA+ is 1134, and I didn’t even know they went that high. He thrown 6.0 or more innings in each of his four starts, but he has yet to cross the century mark for pitches in ball game. The Dodgers only pay if Maeda is excellent this season, but I think they are going to be writing him a hefty check at the end of the campaign – and have absolutely no problem with it.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bassitt | 0.283 | 3.03 | 0.328 | 3.98 | 0.268 | 0.735 | 0.278 | 3.90 | 0.237 | 0.01 | 17.3% |
| Sanchez | 0.301 | 4.12 | 0.370 | 5.86 | 0.247 | 0.699 | 0.280 | 4.79 | 0.251 | 0.01 | 21.0% |
| Davies | 0.260 | 1.72 | 0.339 | 6.97 | 0.247 | 0.732 | 0.283 | 4.01 | 0.245 | 0.02 | 15.3% |
| Lester | 0.275 | 3.44 | 0.287 | 3.17 | 0.229 | 0.666 | 0.296 | 2.94 | 0.232 | 0.01 | 25.0% |
| Nicasio | 0.395 | 6.23 | 0.274 | 3.14 | 0.269 | 0.777 | 0.348 | 3.06 | 0.254 | 0.00 | 25.4% |
| Chatwood | 0.222 | 0.00 | 0.266 | 0.736 | 0.286 | 3.68 | 0.26 | 0.05 | 15.0% | ||
| Nola | 0.342 | 5.00 | 0.279 | 3.41 | 0.247 | 0.713 | 0.291 | 3.87 | 0.246 | 0.01 | 23.1% |
| Roark | 0.348 | 3.92 | 0.323 | 4.64 | 0.244 | 0.678 | 0.298 | 4.62 | 0.275 | 0.00 | 14.9% |
| Danks | 0.316 | 5.44 | 0.355 | 4.72 | 0.241 | 0.674 | 0.307 | 4.50 | 0.276 | 0.01 | 16.4% |
| Wilson | 0.309 | 3.57 | 0.311 | 2.53 | 0.250 | 0.693 | 0.296 | 3.54 | 0.27 | 0.01 | 9.4% |
| Chacin | 0.369 | 5.87 | 0.209 | 1.19 | 0.262 | 0.735 | 0.279 | 3.44 | 0.231 | 0.03 | 22.9% |
| Buchholz | 0.287 | 3.04 | 0.320 | 4.13 | 0.256 | 0.682 | 0.328 | 3.05 | 0.261 | 0.01 | 22.6% |
| Wacha | 0.267 | 3.12 | 0.318 | 3.49 | 0.265 | 0.739 | 0.284 | 3.70 | 0.24 | 0.01 | 20.2% |
| De La Rosa | 0.403 | 7.04 | 0.273 | 2.97 | 0.262 | 0.746 | 0.291 | 4.86 | 0.263 | 0.01 | 18.6% |
| Fernandez | 0.361 | 4.50 | 0.209 | 2.19 | 0.246 | 0.731 | 0.344 | 2.21 | 0.24 | 0.02 | 31.5% |
| Maeda | 0.200 | 0.256 | 0.683 | 0.250 | 3.00 | 0.206 | 0.07 | 20.6% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Aaron Nola PHI (at WAS) – The 4.50 ERA paints the picture of a young hurler who is scuffling in the early parts of the 2016 season, but Nola’s peripherals tell an entirely different story. He has a K:BB ratio of 30:5 (one of the walks was intentional) in 26.1 innings this season, but his run-prevention numbers are being tainted by one start in which he gave up seven earned runs – and that start was against these Nationals. He has gone 7.0 innings in each of his other three starts, striking out seven or more batters in each turn and walking just two batters – but he walked three in the one disaster, and Nola will have to make an adjustment to avoid a repeat performance.
Michael Wacha STL (at ARI) – Wacha’s stat line is an enigma of early-season baseball. He has struck out just 6.0 batters per nine, walked about half that many and given up buckets of hits, resulting in a 1.43 WHIP that seems a mismatch for his 2.82 ERA, that is until seeing that he hasn’t allowed a home run yet this season to generate a 2.83 FIP that’s within a rounding error of his ERA. Wacha has never been a heavy strikeout guy, and pitchers who generate a lot of contact are playing right into the hands of Chase Field, so he could be in for a rough outing and is likely a poor investment of DFS funds.
Tanner Roark WAS (vs. PHI) – Tanner Roark has a career strikeout rate of just 17.3-percent for his career, and he has never shown much of a penchant to pursue the strikeout. That is until his last start. Roark came out dealing against the Twins, raising the bar of expected performance with a 15-strikeout performance that will no doubt cause some over-zealous attachments among his managers today. Prior to the outing, Roark had struck out just nine batters through his first 17.0 innings of the season and he had only struck out double-digit hitters in a game once before, and not more than six batters in a ballgame since 2014. He also threw a career-high 121 pitches (previous high was 112), so don’t be surprised if Roark is pulled early from today’s game to limit his pitch count, whether or not he is actually pitching well.
Anibal Sanchez DET (vs. OAK) – The days of Sanchez leading the American League in ERA seem a disant memory (it was 2013), and since the start of the 2015 season he has given the Tigers 175 innings of 5.19-ERA baseball. The home run has largely been his undoing, with 33 homers given up in that same span; in contrast, Sanchez had given up 33 homers in more than 500 innings in the three-year stretch from 2012-14. This season has been especially ineffective on a start-by-start basis – the next time that he completes the sixth inning will be his first of 2016.
Clay Buchholz BOS (vs. ATL) – Can he be spared today against the orphan children of Turner Field? With an ERA that stands at a robust 6.33 after four starts, including nearly as many runs allowed (15) as strikeouts (17) this season. He’s giving up walks and homers like they’re going out of style, and though the Braves have a way of making even struggling pitchers look good, it’s getting to the point that it’s tough to see the upside in rostering Buchholz. He’s given up exactly five runs (all earned) in each of three different starts this season, sandwiched around a zero-run performance over 6.2 innings that only netted a pair of strikeouts. He also hasn’t topped a half-dozen Ks in any game, and his single-game peak at DraftKings is 11.80 points, with the other three turns falling under seven points apiece.
Jhoulys Chacin ATL (at BOS)
Rubby de la Rosa ARI (vs. STL)
Tyler Wilson BAL (vs. CHW)
Chris Bassitt OAK (at DET)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Taylor Jungmann MIL (at CHC)
John Danks CHW (at BAL) – There are a lot of fold candidates for such a thin slate. Granted, Coors Field turns just about any pitcher into a fold-worthy mess and half of the candidates for the final category are playing at altitude, but pitchers such as Danks and Jungmann carry the misfortune of facing elite offenses in ballparks that are very friendly to hitters. Of course, neither pitcher starts with a very high baseline, so it didn’t take a lot to plunge them into the depths of the sea of folds.
Juan Nicasio PIT (at COL)
Tyler Chatwood COL (vs. PIT)
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window