Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Thursday, September 8th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paulino | HOU | CLE | |||||||||
| Bauer | CLE | HOU | 336.1 | 4.15 | 4.28 | 1.29 | 38.5% | 21.7% | 9.9% | 1.02 | 1.21 |
| Straily | CIN | PIT | 176.1 | 3.98 | 4.72 | 1.21 | 14.3% | 19.8% | 9.4% | 1.38 | 0.73 |
| Nova | PIT | CIN | 228.2 | 4.64 | 4.19 | 1.32 | 25.0% | 17.0% | 6.1% | 1.42 | 1.70 |
| Asher | PHI | WAS | 29 | 9.31 | 5.34 | 1.79 | 11.6% | 7.3% | 2.48 | 0.80 | |
| Cole | WAS | PHI | 28 | 4.50 | 4.29 | 1.21 | 21.7% | 6.7% | 1.61 | 0.49 | |
| Cobb | TBR | NYY | |||||||||
| Sabathia | NYY | TBR | 317.1 | 4.48 | 4.26 | 1.39 | 25.0% | 19.2% | 7.7% | 1.28 | 1.41 |
| Garcia | STL | MIL | 289 | 3.52 | 3.71 | 1.21 | 28.6% | 19.5% | 6.9% | 0.81 | 2.54 |
| Hoffman | COL | SDP | 15 | 6.60 | 6.60 | 1.60 | 7.4% | 11.8% | 2.40 | 1.10 | |
| Richard | SDP | COL | 80.2 | 3.57 | 3.74 | 1.46 | 13.2% | 6.7% | 0.56 | 3.77 | |
| Holland | TEX | SEA | 149.1 | 4.70 | 4.88 | 1.32 | 15.2% | 7.3% | 1.33 | 0.98 | |
| Walker | SEA | TEX | 273.1 | 4.58 | 3.87 | 1.21 | 21.4% | 5.6% | 1.58 | 1.00 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
This is the weakest slate that we’ve had all season. Not only is it one of the thinnest schedules of the year, with only seven games on tap, but the list of pitchers who are set to toe the rubber is entirely unimpressive. There isn’t a pitcher on today’s slate who is remotely close to All-In territory, and as frustrating as this might seem on the surface, such a slate actually opens up a tremendous opportunity by thinning out the likely ownership rates.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
That’s right, nobody qualifies under the Raise heading, either. In two years of writing this daily column, I have never felt compelled to leave this section blank, and in fact I can’t remember a time when fewer than three pitchers were deemed Raise-worthy on any given day. It’s just the way the schedule lined up combined with the half-stack of games. The Fold section is nearly barren as well, particularly with the powerful offenses of the Cubs and Red Sox having the day off and the Rockies playing on the road. The Call section typically incorporates the fat part of the bell curve, so today we’ll be hanging out in the middle. The pitchers are still ranked in order, as per usual, but there is not enough separation among the options to elevate anyone to the upper tiers.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paulino | 0.256 | 0.744 | |||||||||
| Bauer | 0.310 | 4.12 | 0.301 | 4.18 | 0.249 | 0.745 | 0.278 | 4.11 | 0.232 | 90.07 | 21.7% |
| Straily | 0.306 | 4.27 | 0.306 | 3.72 | 0.258 | 0.723 | 0.241 | 4.81 | 0.219 | 86.94 | 19.8% |
| Nova | 0.369 | 4.79 | 0.315 | 4.52 | 0.251 | 0.714 | 0.292 | 4.71 | 0.266 | 78.89 | 17.0% |
| Asher | 0.453 | 10.29 | 0.406 | 8.40 | 0.250 | 0.728 | 0.330 | 6.75 | 0.331 | 0.00 | 11.6% |
| Cole | 0.314 | 4.96 | 0.284 | 3.86 | 0.241 | 0.685 | 0.263 | 4.58 | 0.234 | 79.17 | 21.7% |
| Cobb | 0.251 | 0.733 | |||||||||
| Sabathia | 0.260 | 3.62 | 0.346 | 4.70 | 0.256 | 0.749 | 0.306 | 4.46 | 0.267 | 94.91 | 19.2% |
| Guerra | 0.278 | 2.70 | 0.280 | 3.20 | 0.260 | 0.760 | 0.259 | 3.71 | 0.217 | 0.01 | 20.7% |
| Garcia | 0.300 | 3.32 | 0.292 | 3.57 | 0.244 | 0.717 | 0.287 | 3.66 | 0.243 | 89.98 | 19.5% |
| Hoffman | 0.236 | 0.681 | 0.235 | 7.55 | 0.267 | 0.00 | 7.4% | ||||
| Richard | 0.271 | 2.10 | 0.347 | 4.44 | 0.264 | 0.731 | 0.321 | 3.79 | 0.286 | 22.89 | 13.2% |
| Holland | 0.272 | 3.95 | 0.344 | 4.87 | 0.259 | 0.738 | 0.281 | 4.84 | 0.262 | 91.11 | 15.2% |
| Walker | 0.312 | 4.30 | 0.327 | 4.90 | 0.260 | 0.749 | 0.281 | 4.50 | 0.249 | 90.22 | 21.4% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Jaime Garcia STL (vs. MIL) – Garcia has faced the Brewers three different times this season. He matched up against them in his second start of the year, a one-hit shutout that featured a season-high 13 strikeouts – he’s only struck out more than eight hitters in one other start this season. The second outing was more pedestrian, with Garcia giving up two runs on five hits and three walks in just 5.0 frames back at the start of June, and he kicked off July with a stellar performance against Milwaukee, giving up one run on four hits and four walks in eight full innings of work. All told, two of his four best starts this season have come against the Brewers, and the combination of his baseline skills with his K-related upside (added from facing the majors most strikeout-prone lineup) makes him one of the more desireable arms on today’s slate.
Trevor Bauer CLE (vs. HOU) – As inconsistent as he has been this season, Bauer’s strikeout upside against the K-heavy lineup of the Astros puts him among the top options on today’s slate, but he will only be available in All Day tournaments because this is the only early game on the schedule. Bauer has pitched 6.0 or more innings in six straight starts, but despite the truckload of opportunities, he has left five of the six starts with four or fewer strikeouts to his credit. Of course, the one outlier was a ridiculous 13-K start against the Blue Jays, and though Bauer has flashed immense K rates in the past, nobody saw this coming from a pitcher who hadn’t struck out more than six batters in any of the nine previous starts. The Astros have broken out the whooping stick lately, and the likelihood of crooked numbers outweighs the expected bump in strikeouts.
Ivan Nova PIT (vs. CIN) – Nova, like many pitchers before him, has responded well to the tutelage of Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage, and in six starts with Pittsburgh since the trade deadline he has compiled a 2.89 ERA with 28 strikeouts and just two walks in 37.1 innings pitched – Nova walked two or more batters in six of his last eight games for the Yankees, yet has given away just two total free passes in the six games since, He’s two starts removed from a one-run complete game and has only had one rough outing since coming over to the black-and-gold, that being the four runs that he gave up in 4.0 frames to the Giants on August 17. The strikeouts have been unimpressive but Nova can go a long way towards limiting the scoreboard damage if he continues to keep free runners off the basepaths.
A.J. Cole WAS (vs. PHI) – Called up by the Nats in late August, Cole has fared decently well through his first three starts at the highest level this season, with a composite ERA of 3.86 and a 17:7 K:BB in 18.2 innings. The walks are a bit on the high side but he has also given up just 12 total hits, an incredible four of which have left the yard. His opponents have gotten easier over the three starts, and with it, his runs column has become lighter with each successive turn. The Nats stretched Cole out to 112 pitches in his second start with them so he won’t likely be limited by any pitch count restrictions, and though his Triple-A ERA of 4.62 was nothing to write home about, the peripheral stats included a K/BB above 3.0 but a tendency towards high hit totals.
Junior Guerra MIL (at STL) – Guerra is still working on his stamina as well as his pitch command, coming off his first start off the disabled list after missing a month. He threw 70 pitches against the Pirates in that game, lasting one 3.1 innings despite keeping his opponents off the scoreboard, as a lack of control led to high pitch counts, if not the walk totals.He gets a tough assignment today against St. Louis, where he will try to continue his streak of five straight games (28.1 innings) without giving up a home run.
CC Sabathia NYY (vs. TB) – Back on August 17 versus the Blue Jays, Sabathia had one of the more peculiar pitching lines of the season: 6.0 IP, 7 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 12 K. It was by far the highest K-count of the season and the strikeouts saved his DFS hide that day. In the three games since, Sabathia has been very effective, with a 2.29 ERA and 16:5 K:BB in 19.2 innings. The last two turns were both against the southpaw-phobic Orioles, a team that somehow managed to strike out just one time against Sabathia in 6.0 frames his last time out.
David Paulino HOU (at CLE) – Paulino makes his MLB debut today against the Indians, and the six-foot-seven right-hander brings an enticing array of size, stuff and stats to the table. He is a hard-thrower who touches the upper 90s with his fastball and possesses a reportedly-inconsistent curveball, a combination that fueled an immense strikeout in the minors this season, with a total of 106 strikeouts in 90.0 innings splits between three levels this season. He has a massive range of outcomes, the upper bounds of which make Paulino a particularly interesting option in today’s shallow pitcher pool, but one will have to play the All-Day slate in order to enlist his services.
Alex Cobb TB (at NYY) – Cobb made it through five innings on 84 pitches against the Blue Jays in his first start back in the majors since 2014. He struck out seven of the 20 batters he faced in that game, walked just one, and allowed two runs in the outing. It was stress-reducing for the Rays, considering that Cobb had been hit for a 6.65 ERA over eight starts during his minor-league rehab assignment, a 21.2-inning stretch that included a disappointing K:BB of 15:8. The pitch count might be allowed to go past 90 tosses in tonight’s game, but I expect a smaller K count despite the anticipated rise in pitches thrown.
Jeff Hoffman COL (at SD)
Derek Holland TEX (at SEA)
Taijuan Walker SEA (vs. TEX) – September is not the best time to be working out mechanical kinks, particularly when a pitcher’s delivery is compromised by recent injury and especially when that team is still hanging in the playoff race. That’s the case with Walker and the Mariners, however the team might be desperate. He has only started five games in the bigs since July 1, and in each of those turns he has surrendered at least four runs, culminating in the six-run disaster that got Walker ousted in the first inning of his last start. The M’s can’t afford to squander this head-to-head opportunity with the division-leading Rangers, so expect them to have a quick hook if Walker falters early in the game.
Dan Straily CIN (at PIT) – Entering his final start of August, Straily was working on an eight-game streak of allowing two or fewer runs, a stretch that included just eight total walks over 50 innings, with 43 strikeouts and a clean 6-0 record over that stretch. Then he got punked by the Angels two starts ago, giving up seven earned runs on eight hits – four of them homers – and getting yanked before he could finish the third inning. He only allowed one run to the Cardinals in his last turn, but Straily also walked an astonishing seven batters over 5.2 frames, and the extreme counts of true outcomes over his last two starts indicate that something might be wrong.
Clayton Richard SD (vs. COL)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Alec Asher PHI (at WAS) – I see an argument for stacking against any one of these guys, but Asher is the only one who is waving his arms for a stacking opportunity. He earned a September callup last season, compiling an ERA of 9.31 on the season and having coughed up eight home runs in just 29.0 innings pitched. His minor-league numbers have looked much better this season than they did a year ago, with a 2.37 ERA spread across 64.2 innings and multiple levels, though his weak rate of 6.4 K/9 indicates that there will be plenty of contact by the Nats tonight.
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