Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Team Preview: Milwaukee Brewers
Baseball is almost here! With an eventful offseason in the books and spring training underway, it’s time to preview all 30 teams in Major League Baseball. With the help of RotoGrinders PlateIQ Premium, DFS ownership trends from Chris Gimino, and our resident Premium MLB guru Dave Potts (aka CheeseIsGood), we take a look at some information that is definitely interesting and possibly helpful for the upcoming 2019 MLB season.
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Milwaukee Brewers Preseason Overview
— Vegas Win Total O/U: 86.5
— World Series Odds: 16/1
— Key Additions: Cory Spangenberg, Mike Moustakas, Ben Gamel
Other Noteworthy Players for DFS: Eric Thames, Ben Gamel, Hernan Perez, Manny Pina
— Outlook Coming off their best season in years, a loaded Brewers lineup will face a tough test returning to the playoffs in a tight division. They will effectively field the same lineup as last season, with the exception of having Yasmani Grandal providing some extra pop from the catcher position. A similar lineup in 2018 achieved a +107 run differential despite less than elite starting pitching. The bats are clearly their strength. Yelich (12.9%), Aguilar (11.4%), Shaw (10.3%), and Braun (10.8%) all checked in with big time barrel rates in 2018. Moustakas, Grandal, Thames, and Cain have adequate pop in their own right. Taking down the Cubs and Cardinals is going to be a tall task this season, but the Brewers certainly have the offensive fire power to repeat.
Starting pitching is a flaw for this team, but the strength of their bullpen (fourth-best WAR in baseball last year) helps to keep them competitive. Josh Hader allowed a top 1% wOBA (.296) in 2018, really making a difference late in games. For DFS, we don’t have any interest in Jhoulys Chacin (19.6% K), Zach Davies (17.5% K), or Chase Anderson (19.9% K) on most slates. Brandon Woodruff might be mildly appealing from time to time, and we’ll just have to wait and see on Jimmy Nelson returning from injury. MLB slates are usually loaded with better options than what we’ll get from Milwaukee, and this does not figure to be a spot where we look for pitching value.
— DFS Ownership Trends: The Brewers were an ownership value of sorts last season, checking in with just the 11th-highest average ownership despite finishing 4th in total HRs and stolen bases. This lineup is primed for a big season, so get ready to click some power bats here without a massive crowd around you. It may surprise you to learn that the highest owned hitter on average in their projected lineup was Yasmani Grandal. The catcher position is thin, so don’t think you’re getting away with some devious caper when you decide to include him in your Brewers stack. He might be the most consistently owned of all.
Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes
— Jimmy Nelson sat out all of 2018 while working his way back from shoulder surgery, but let’s not forget that back in 2017, he was on his way to full-fledged acedom. In fact, he’s one of only three pitchers over the past two years (joining Luis Severino in 2017 and Aaron Nola in 2018) to post a sub-3.10 FIP and induce grounders on over 50 percent of plate appearances. By all accounts, Nelson should be good to go in 2018, and he should be back on everyone’s DFS radar.
— “Lefty masher” is a term that gets thrown around DFS a bit liberally (really liberally if you ask Derek Carty). Rarely is it applied to Lorenzo Cain, who owns the best batting average in MLB against southpaws since 2015 (.337). And before you turn your nose up at the mention of batting average, the advanced numbers tell the same story: Cain’s 152 wRC+ ranks 11th in MLB, just a few ticks behind guys like Trevor Story (153) and Nolan Arenado (154).