Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Team Preview: New York Mets
Baseball is almost here! With an eventful offseason in the books and spring training underway, it’s time to preview all 30 teams in Major League Baseball. With the help of RotoGrinders PlateIQ Premium, DFS ownership trends from Chris Gimino, and our resident Premium MLB guru Dave Potts (aka CheeseIsGood), we take a look at some information that is definitely interesting and possibly helpful for the upcoming 2019 MLB season.
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New York Mets Preseason Overview
— Vegas Win Total O/U: 86.5
— World Series Odds: 20/1
— Key Additions: Wilson Ramos, Jed Lowrie, Robinson Cano, Keon Broxton
— Lineup Update: Todd Frazier and Jed Lowrie do not appear to be on track to start the season. Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis may be the names that start the season in the lineup.
Other Noteworthy Players for DFS: Yoenis Cespedes (injured), Jeff McNeil, Keon Broxton, Travis d’Arnaud, Adeiny Hechavarria
— Outook: The Mets signed veteran help for their batting order this offseason that should improve their chances. PlateIQ loves Jed Lowrie (maybe too much) and his professional hitting profile. This fly ball revolutionary realized his career high in HR last season, and figures to instantly upgrade the top of this lineup. Robinson Cano is still hitting the ball hard at age 36. He checked in with the 6th highest average exit velocity in all of baseball last season, and the 6th highest statcast hard hits %. Wilson Ramos is the third big name veteran the Mets added to boost their lineup, and his hitting has really seen a boost in recent seasons after undergoing a lasik eye procedure in 2016. The trio of veterans figures to compliment the existing core of Nimmo, Frazier, and Conforto well enough to keep the Mets more competitive in 2019.
The Mets have three incredible pitchers on their roster that will absolutely be primed for strong seasons. We all know about the Cy Young season Jacob Degrom had last year, and it’s no surprise he is one of PlateIQs favorite pitchers every single time he takes the mound. He pitches deep into games and racks up plenty of strikeouts when he wants to. He’s worth the price of admission in DFS, particularly in cash game settings.
Noah Syndergaard suffered through another injury riddled season, and the strikeouts were down quite a bit (24.1%). He produced just 4 games of 8 strikeouts or more, and 6 games in which he completed 7 innings. Indications are that we’ll see a bounce back from Thor, but it is typically a good thing to be price sensitive with a profile like his.
By the numbers, Zack Wheeler was almost as good as Syndergaard last season. He had the same strikeout rate, similarly low soft contact rate, and had more games with 8 strikeouts or better. He also went 7 innings in 10 of his last 12 appearances, allowing more than 3 runs just twice in that span. Hopes are high that he can continue to pitch well.
Hopes are not as high for Steven Matz, who as this is being written just allowed a spring training HR to ground ball machine Lewis Brinson. Both he and Jason Vargas were disliked in terms of PlateIQ overall rating last season, and they’ll continue to be more attackable than playable in DFS.
— DFS Ownership Trends: The Mets were the 24th most popular team in 2018, but that ranking should rise a few slots thanks to the changes on their roster. They still play at Citi Field, which was also unpopular (Rank 24). That will certainly dampen their appeal and keep them no better than average in overall ownership. Steven Matz (Rank 90) and Jason Vargas (Rank 43) were two of the more popular lefties to target against last year. I think that sounds about right, and we can go right back to well unless we see drastic changes in their approach that helps them limit the damage. For unknown reasons, Jacob Degrom wasn’t the least targeted against pitcher in baseball (13th lowest). He was still massively unpopular, and betting against him should be on pause until further notice. There are plenty of weaker spots to apply your game theory, bro.
Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes
— Jacob deGrom is a dominant pitcher anywhere. But at CitiField, he’s legendarily good. His 2.14 career ERA at CitiField is the second-best mark of all time (min. 450 IP), trailing only Clayton Kershaw at Dodger Stadium. And just for laughs, check out his strikeout totals in six home starts after last year’s All-Star game: 10, 9, 10, 10, 9, 10. He’ll never not be expensive in daily fantasy, which will make him tough to fit in on certain slates. But you’ll almost never regret owning him, particularly when he’s pitching in New York.
— Last year, Robinson Cano posted a .364 wOBA to go with a low 13.5% strikeout rate, making him just one of five hitters (min. 300 PA) to do so; the others are Jose Ramirez, Alex Bregman, Justin Turner, and Jose Altuve. At the ripe age of 36 years old, Cano will be plying his trade in New York for the second stint in his career. It’s also noteworthy that Cano posted a 93.1 MPH average exit velocity in 2018, his highest in the Statcast era, especially surprising given his, um, questionable decisions of his past.
— In 2018, only three players in MLB (min. 100 PA) had an on-base percentage of .360 or higher in two-strike counts: Mookie Betts (.377), Mike Trout (.366), and … Jeff McNeil (.360). Nobody’s saying McNeil is in the same class as last year’s AL MVP and AL MVP runner-up, but it’s noteworthy that, even in his debut season, he remained so disciplined when up against the wall.