DFBBC Preview: Injury News and Punt Plays

by Stephen Keech (SBK) Last Updated 2014-04-04 19:25:29

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DFBBC Prep: Friday Night NBA Strategy

This late in the season, there’s one thing on everyone’s mind and that’s injuries. Naturally there should be a slew of late breaking news that won’t come out until Friday during the day and right before lock, but we can be prepared to find value in the injury news that is already known. Here’s what to look for as of late Thursday night, courtesy of Ethan:

DFBBC Punt Plays

Point Guard

Ray McCallum – $4,300 – This one is pretty simple and I doubt much analysis is needed, but if Isaiah Thomas is out, get this guy in the good majority of your lineups. My biggest concern is that since this game doesn’t tip until 10:30 EST, we won’t have definitive word one way or another on Thomas by the time rosters lock, but this can actually be used to your advantage if you’re playing multiple lineups. As of late Thursday night, Thomas is considered doubtful (per DonBest), so regardless of whether or not we know about IT2, I’d feel comfortable rolling with McCallum in a good number of lineups hoping that a significant chunk of the field is scared off by the potential of Thomas suiting up. McCallum has been playing absolutely huge minutes with Thomas on the shelf; he’s seen no fewer then 43 minutes in any of his five starts and has posted at least 36.3 fantasy points in each of his last three. The match-up isn’t great but with that kind of playing time and his confidence growing, McCallum will have no problem whatsoever paying off the $4,900 price tag if Thomas sits out.

Greivis Vasquez – $4,100 – This one is almost as obvious as McCallum; if Kyle Lowry sits out (he’s currently listed as doubtful on DonBest), Vasquez becomes an absolute steal at $4,100. With Lowry out of the lineup on Wednesday, Vasquez posted 15-8-4 in 40 minutes, leaving him with 33.8 FP’s against the Rockets. Even against a much more defensive minded team in the Pacers, I think Vasquez matches that total with upside for more if he gets another start. He had some 30 FP games with Lowry in the lineup, and he actually led the NBA in total assists last season so he’s clearly capable of posting a nice fantasy line in big minutes. Pay attention to our Lineup Alerts/Twitter Feed for up-to-date injury information on Lowry.

Kendall Marshall – $5,300 – Marshall is another benefactor of injuries with both Xavier Henry and Steve Nash expected to sit tonight against the Mavericks. We’ve seen what Marshall can do when he’s left with almost all of the point guard duties earlier in the year, and he has legitimate 40 FP upside when he’s playing more then 30 minutes in this offense. He’s crossed the 30 minute mark twice in his last three games and has exceeded 31 FP’s in both of those contests, and I see him doing that again tonight with Nash and Henry on the shelf.

Shooting Guard

Kent Bazemore – $5,000 – With the Lakers currently dealing with a comical number of injuries, you’ll see quite a few of the healthy bodies in this write-up. Mike D’Antoni is one of the toughest coaches in the league to figure out in terms of what he’s going to do with his rotation on a nightly basis, but a lot of that is due to the fact that he’s dealing with a different group of healthy players almost every night. I’ll have a tough time trusting anyone coming off the bench for D’Antoni but I do think tonight’s starters all possess GPP-type upside and you’re foolish if you don’t pay close attention to this situation up until roster lock, because the guys who get significant run for the Lakers tonight could very well be difference makers in the DFBBC. Despite the fact that they play at 10:30 EST, I think we should have news on Gasol and Kaman before roster lock because the Lakers have been one of the few teams that like to announce their injury news early in the day. Bazemore will almost certainly be in the starting lineup and he also picks up value from Henry and Nash sitting out, but he’s been producing of late even when both were in the lineup. I think he exceeds 30 FP’s tonight with his ability to contribute in multiple categories, and the possibility of the smaller Monta Ellis defending him makes me even more intrigued.

Terrence Ross – $4,300 – Lowry’s absence has some trickle-down effect besides just boosting the value of Vasquez and DeMar DeRozan. With Lowry out of action against the Rockets on Wednesday, Ross played 35 minutes (after playing 24 and 22 in his previous two games) and while he put up a pedestrian 20.8 FP’s, minutes equal production in the NBA and if he can match or exceed that playing time tonight, I think he makes a worthwhile GPP gamble. I typically don’t want much exposure to teams squaring off with the Pacers, but I’ll pull the trigger on Ross in a small number of tournament lineups if Lowry is ruled out. He’s extremely sporadic with his fantasy production and his big games haven’t been all that frequent lately, so I wouldn’t consider using him in a cash game or in more then a GPP lineup or two. Just as a disclaimer, I seriously thought about listing Swaggy P here (Nick Young for those not up on nicknames), but I didn’t want to overdue it with Lakers and other then his 40 point outburst against Portland, he hasn’t been crossing the 25 FP mark with any consistency. With that said, he’s in consideration with a few of the guards expected to sit out tonight (he just relies on scoring a little too much for my liking without contributing much in peripheral categories).

Small Forward

Jeff Green – $6,100 – I just broke my BBB rule by $600 (ouch), and I doubt I have to tell most of you at this point that targeting the Sixers is smart, but I don’t like most of the cheaper SF options and Green has shown huge upside in his two meetings with the Sixers so far this year. Over those two contests, he’s averaged 27.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 3.5 APG and 1.0 BPG, and if he can even come close to those averages he’ll pay off his price tag with ease. You’ll definitely want a piece of the Celtics tonight, and Jared Sullinger is another guy that has scored well above his season average in terms of fantasy points in games against Philly. I wouldn’t feel comfortable rolling with Green across all (or almost all) of my DFBBC lineups since he’s about as boom-or-bust as anyone, but I think you absolutely have to have exposure to him if you’re playing multiple lineups.

Ryan Kelly – $4,700 – The Laker train continues.. Kelly is a direct beneficiary of Pau Gasol and/or Chris Kaman sitting out, and both are considered doubtful as of this writing (again, per DonBest). If they both end up out of action, Kelly becomes a premier punt option at a somewhat weak small forward spot, and he’s another player that has flashed major fantasy potential when given 35+ minutes. It was Jordan Hill that had the big game on Wednesday with Gasol and Kaman out of the lineup, but that can work to your advantage if it causes a considerable part of the field to stay away from Kelly. Rolling with Kelly or Hill would become a whole lot more worrisome if we didn’t have news on Gasol and Kaman by 7:00 EST, and if either of them were to suit up, I’d most likely end up leaving Kelly off of my squads. Again, stay up on injury news via our lineup alerts or Twitter feed.

Power Forward

Jordan Hill – $5,200 – Hill posted 18 points, 15 boards and 4 blocks (43 FP’s) with Gasol and Kaman out of the lineup on Wednesday, and with both doubtful for tonight’s game, Hill has to be heavily considered for just $5,200. It’s all about the minutes with him; in the last seven games he’s played, he’s exceeded 29 minutes three times, and in those games he’s scored no less then 43 FP’s. He had another game during that span where he saw 27 minutes (in which he scored 31.8 FP’s), but in the other three he wasn’t able to stay on the court for more then 24 minutes, and thus didn’t cross the 20 FP mark. The Mavericks are vulnerable against the PF spot (23rd against the position on the season, 20th over the last 15 days) and if both Gasol and Kaman are ruled out, Hill will be in a good number of my tournament lineups on FanDuel tonight.

Tristan Thompson – $5,200 – T-Thomp has burned me more times then I can count over the last two seasons, but I’d be willing to forgive him if he can come through with a big performance tonight. Per Sam Amico, Anderson Varejao could possibly suit up for this one, but my best guess as of late Thursday night is that he won’t play, which would make both Thompson and Spencer Hawes very interesting plays against Atlanta. They both obviously benefit without Varejao around to siphon minutes, which is evident by the last two games in which Varejao didn’t play (he saw just 14 minutes against Indiana on Sunday before leaving with a shoulder injury); both Thompson and Hawes played at least 30 minutes with Andy on the shelf, and I think each guy will exceed value against a weak Atlanta interior if Varejao isn’t around to compete for playing time.

Centers

Omer Asik – $4,600 – I wanted to list Hawes here but he exceeds the BBB cutoff and I didn’t want to break it twice (and I covered him in the T-Thomp analysis), but know that he’s very much in play if Varejao can’t suit up (as is Henry Sims against Boston for $5,800). Asik has become about as obvious of a value option at center as there is with Dwight out of the lineup, and it doesn’t sound like he’s going to suit up as of this writing which makes Asik one of the premier dollar per point producers at the position for $4,600. The Thunder are relatively tough inside but I don’t think there is a match-up on the board that would scare me off of Asik at this price without Howard in the lineup, so I certainly won’t ignore him in a big game against OKC. He showed his rebounding prowess with 23 in 36 minutes against the Nets a few days ago and if he can add 10-12 points and a few blocks/steals to his work on the glass, he’ll outproduce his price-tag tonight.

Timofey Mozgov – $4,600 – Against a Memphis interior that boasts both Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, the Nuggets will need to match their size as best they can, and Mozgov on the floor gives them the greatest shot at achieving that. These teams actually met a few days back on the 31st of March, and Mozgov ended up playing 32 minutes and posted his first 20 and 10 game in quite some time, totaling 36.5 FP’s. The Nuggets don’t have much right now down low besides Faried and Mozgov, so they are both deserving of consideration even in a tough match-up since both are likely to be under-owned. If I’m deciding between Asik and Mozgov, I’d feel more comfortable with Asik due to his playing time being more secure, but both will likely find their way onto my teams and for what it’s worth, Mozgov should be the lesser owned of the two (as long as D12 is ruled out).