DraftKings Week 1 Lineup: Algorithm Projected Lineup Review
After a long, slow summer filled with almost nothing but baseball, the NFL will receive a warm welcome from the DFS community in just about a week.
Opening weekend should probably be a national holiday – I’d much prefer to have that Monday off compared to the Monday after the Super Bowl – but it’ll be treated like one at RotoGrinders (without the off day on Monday). We’re gearing up for Week 1 by improving our Lineup Builder and projections, and we’ve also unveiled a new app that will allow you to quickly build lineups via mobile, a huge plus for users who spend most of their weekends on the go.
We wanted to take a look at our current Week 1 Algorithm Projected Lineup on DraftKings and break down why those players are showing up as top point-per-dollar plays.
Our Lineup Builder has spit out quite a few Week 1 lineups that are projected to score between 151-152 DraftKings points, so I’ve handpicked my favorite of the group and will break down those players below. Keep in mind that this lineup only accounts for players who will take the field on Sunday (the Thursday/Monday games are omitted, as they are with the Millionaire Maker tournament). Also, it’s worth noting that these projections may change as we inch closer to Week 1 of the NFL season (they are updated daily).
Quarterback – Dak Prescott ($5.0K, 18.73 FPs)
With Tony Romo expected to miss somewhere between six-to-ten weeks with yet another back injury, Prescott will take over as the Cowboys starting QB and will undoubtedly be one of the most popular plays at the position on DraftKings. While we shouldn’t put too much stock into preseason numbers, Prescott has given us very little reason to assume he’s going to struggle against a Giants defense that allowed the third most FPs to opposing QBs last season. So far this preseason (he won’t play in the finale), the rookie has completed 39 of 50 attempts for 454 yards, five passing TDs, two rushing TDs and no turnovers.
We in the DFS community salivate over QBs who can contribute fantasy points with their legs, and Prescott is one of the most dangerous dual-threat QBs taking the field in Week 1. The Giants improved their defense in the offseason by resigning JPP and adding Olivier Vernon, Janoris Jenkins and Damon Harrison while also spending their first-round pick on CB Eli Apple, but even those additions leave them weak at most defensive positions. Prescott doesn’t need to be great to pay off the price tag and while I’d prefer this play more in cash games, he still presents a ton of GPP upside despite the fact that he’ll be highly owned. We usually like to stack up our QBs with at least one of his pass catchers in GPP lineups – Dez Bryant is the obvious handcuff, but he’s not in a great Week 1 spot and is currently dealing with a concussion which won’t afford him many practice reps with his new QB.
Running Back 1 – Lamar Miller ($7.0K, 18.88 FPs)
After averaging about 12 carries a game in Miami last season, Miller looks to be primed for a much heavier workload in Bill O’Brien’s run heavy scheme. The Texans ranked 6th in rush attempts last year (they finished with a dreadful 3.67 YPC as a team, 28th in the league) despite Arian Foster being injured for most of it, and that number isn’t likely to drop with Miller in the fold. Assuming the workload increases to 18-20 carries a game, Miller is going to be an elite option most weeks and while he likely won’t be as efficient as he was last season (he finished with 4.5 YPC on 194 attempts), it’s also very possible that he sees an increase in activity as a pass-catcher. Chicago allowed the 11th most FPs to opposing RBs last season and considering that Miller is a trusted three-down back – he’s a strong receiver (83% catch rate last year) and graded out as a top-three pass-blocking back according to PFF – expect a heavy Week 1 workload.
Running Back 2 – LeSean McCoy ($6.4K, 17.67 FPs)
The Ravens allowed the 8th fewest FPs to opposing RBs last year, so this isn’t a great draw for McCoy. Still, he’s a proven workhorse and this game should stay competitive, so his workload shouldn’t be in question. Especially in large-field tournaments like the Millionaire Maker, taking a chance on a high-end RB in a bad matchup can pay huge dividends if he’s able to break off a big play or two, which we know McCoy is capable of. He won’t have Karlos Williams around to vulture TDs this season which is huge; Williams finished with nine all-purpose TDs last season and finished with only one fewer carry inside the opposing 5-yard line, so we should see some of those TDs head in McCoy’s direction this year. His TD upside is now worth targeting at a slightly decreased price tag (6.4K is a tad too cheap given his expected workload), and it certainly doesn’t hurt matters that the Bills were very loyal to the running game last season, finishing with the 2nd most rush attempts per game last season. We should also expect an uptick in his usage in terms of the passing game.
Wide Receiver 1 – Julio Jones ($9.4K, 27.57 FPs)
This is one of the plays that requires the least amount of analysis. Jones is very clearly one of the top three receivers in the game on a weekly basis and his big play ability may be the best in the business, so why wouldn’t we want to play him against a Tampa Bay defense that allowed the 10th most FPs to opposing WRs last season? Jones totaled 30 targets in his two meetings with the Bucs last season (20 catches, 255 yards, 1 TD) and while they should throw tougher CB matchups at him this season (Tampa has added Brent Grimes and Vernon Hargreaves III), Jones remains matchup proof. He can blow the lid off any defense and his TD numbers should rise this year. Despite leading the league in targets, catches and receiving yards last season, Jones ranked just 10th in red-zone targets and 20th in receiving TDs. He’s in for another monster Week 1 performance and it isn’t surprising to see him in this DraftKings lineup.
Wide Receiver 2 – DeAndre Hopkins ($8.8K, 22.49 FPs)
Hopkins is a shade below the likes of Jones, Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham, but he possesses a very similar ceiling and should be treated as an elite option in Week 1. Per Bears reporter Chris Emma, Chicago could be without all three of their top corners for Week 1. Kyle Fuller is recovering from a knee scope, Tracy Porter is dealing with a concussion and Bryce Callahan is missing time with a hamstring injury. This sets up beautifully for Hopkins, who will be working with a more accurate QB than he dealt with last season when he finished with just one fewer target than Antonio Brown. I don’t expect his target total to match last season’s, but he should be more efficient than last season when he was totally missed on 17.1% of his targets (per PFF). Keep an eye on the Bears CB situation, and if Fuller and Porter can’t go, fire Hopkins up confidently.
Wide Receiver 3 – Tajae Sharpe ($3.0K, 11.83 FPs)
As someone who resides in Nashville, I’ve heard quite a bit of buzz around Sharpe this offseason, and it appears to be warranted. He’s neck and neck with Rishard Matthews in terms of who will see the biggest workload on the outside in the early going, and both receivers could see an extra few targets if Kendall Wright isn’t able to suit up against Minnesota. Delanie Walker is likely to remain the focal point of the Tennessee passing game given that he’s the only one out of that group to work consistently with Mariota last year, but Sharpe provides excellent GPP value priced at $3K. Sharpe immediately cemented himself as one of the best route runners on the team and hasn’t ceded any first time reps this preseason, so it’s very possible he ends up with 6-8 targets in Week 1. If you want to pay up for the likes of Jones and Hopkins in the same lineup, you’ll have to take a chance with an unproven commodity at minimum price, and this is one of the best directions to look in. Rishard Matthews has spent time in the slot this preseason and it’s very possible he ends up playing out of the slot regularly if Wright isn’t active to start the year, which would only further increase Sharpe’s upside.
Tight End – Zach Ertz ($4.3K, 14.12 FPs)
Ertz is fresh off signing a lucrative deal which made him the fourth-highest paid TE in the league, so the Eagles are going to want to utilize him. It appears that the Eagles will be using offensive sets with multiple TEs on the field at the same time (no surprise given how weak they are at WR), and Ertz is by far the most dangerous pass-catcher between he and Brent Celek (Trey Burton will also play a role). Ertz finished as a top-two TE in three of the last four weeks of the regular season in 2015 and considering that TDs have been his biggest weakness to date (he had just two last season), it’s safe to expect him to improve on his modest 2015 total. He converted just one of ten red-zone opportunities last year, a number that should also climb. It wouldn’t be at all surprising to see him finish the year as the most oft-targeted pass-catcher in the Eagles’ offense, and that could very well begin in Week 1. If you really want to pay up at the RB/WR spots, consider rostering two cheap TEs with touchdown upside in GPP lineups. Tight ends are criminally underpriced on some DFS outlets, especially DraftKings.
Flex – James White ($3.6K, 12.22 FPs)
With Dion Lewis on the shelf, James White will open the season as the Patriots passing down/pass-catching back. There will be weeks when that role will be heavily utilized and we’ll see plenty of the big backs (LeGarrette Blount) in other weeks, so the Patriots backfield in general is best utilized in GPPs. Week 1 will be one of the rare instances this season when the Patriots are underdogs, so it makes sense to anticipate a heavier workload for White against the Arizona Cardinals. White posted a few huge PPR totals last season (both of which came in December with Lewis on the shelf) and given that DraftKings is a full-point PPR site, we could see White blow his projection out of the water if game flow works in his favor. Jimmy Garoppolo may be more apt to check down to his TEs/RBs in the early going which also doesn’t hurt White’s upside. Arizona allowed the 7th fewest FPPG to opposing RBs last season, but they were middle of the pack in terms of receptions/receiving yards allowed to the position.
Defense/Special Teams – Detroit Lions ($2.5K, 8.23 FPs)
I admittedly don’t love this matchup for the Lions, as they are on the road against an offense that can rack up points quickly, but the Colts do turn the ball over plenty and Detroit boasts one of the more talented defenses in the league. The Lions could afford to improve the CB spot opposite Darius Slay and are also not terribly strong at the safety spot, but they’re TD upside is enticing considering Andrew Luck threw 12 INTs in just 293 attempts last year. There aren’t any more appealing D/ST units priced below the Lions, but if you want to pay up a bit more, the Titans ($2.6K), Texans ($3.2K) and Eagles ($3.3K) are all strong pivots in a similar price range.
Hopefully this helps you prepare for your DraftKings Week 1 lineups! Check back to RG for updates between now and kickoff.