DRAFT NBA Value Watch: Friday, January 4th
Aaron Hendrix will be bringing Premium subscribers his tiers for head-to-head, three-man, four-man (tournaments), and six-man drafts on DRAFT. Included will be strategy discussion and options for the day’s slate.
Friday, January 4th
Good afternoon Grinders! Welcome to our NBA content for DRAFT Premium. Each day, I will go over the NBA slate with tier rankings for head-to-head, three-man, four-man (tournaments) and six man drafts.
A couple notes to remember about DRAFT contests. One, there is no salary cap so you’re not worried about fitting players in on a budget. Raw fantasy points is what matters most, not the popular point per dollar. Second, while there is no late swap, if a player is ruled out, you will be able to swap them out. For more information on how this works, read the DRAFT Swap Rules Page – for this reason you can take some marginal chances in the later rounds on players that are questionable to play.
View the DRAFT NBA Scoring System here – last, roster requirements are one center, two forwards, and two guards. All analysis and rankings will be based on that.
One key note about this article. It is projection based and the analysis will be minimal. It is my feeling the best way to approach DRAFT drafts is to rely on a mathematical approach and to draft the best projected players with some adjustments made for positional scarcity – I will account for this scarcity in my rankings. If there is a question you have on how to interpret the rankings, please leave a comment on the article or shoot me a DM on Twitter and I’ll be happy to answer it for you.
The rankings are based on projected values. To get the best feel for the industry, each day I run a comparison of major DFS sites and come up with a average projected value from these sites. These values are how I determine my rankings. I’ve included the overall unadjusted rankings at the end so you can see how players rank in terms of overall fantasy point projection.
Author’s Note – DRAFT does not always utilize the typical position listed for a player in projections. I do my best to go through their lists each morning to make sure the positions are correct, but there is a chance I may miss some. I always include additional players in the positional rankings to account for this as well as injuries and late scratches. The article will not be updated after the initial posting, but if you have any questions please feel free to leave them in the comments or send me a message on Twitter and I’ll be happy to answer them.
Slate Overview
This data is copied from the NBA First Look from Notorious.
| Road Team | Home Team | Vegas Line | Over/Under | Away Total | Home Total | Game Time (ET) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah Jazz | at | Cleveland Cavaliers | UTA8.5 | 208.0 | 108.3 | 99.8 | 7:30 PM |
| Dallas Mavericks | at | Boston Celtics | BOS-5.0 | 214.5 | 104.8 | 109.8 | 8:00 PM |
| Indiana Pacers | at | Chicago Bulls | IND6.5 | 200.5 | 103.5 | 97.0 | 8:00 PM |
| Brooklyn Nets | at | Memphis Grizzlies | MEM-3.5 | 203.0 | 99.8 | 103.3 | 8:00 PM |
| Washington Wizards | at | Miami Heat | MIA-6.5 | 213.0 | 103.3 | 109.8 | 8:00 PM |
| Orlando Magic | at | Minnesota Timberwolves | MIN-4.5 | 212.0 | 103.8 | 108.3 | 8:00 PM |
| Atlanta Hawks | at | Milwaukee Bucks | MIL-13.0 | 230.5 | 108.8 | 121.8 | 8:30 PM |
| Los Angeles Clippers | at | Phoenix Suns | LAC4.0 | 232.0 | 118.0 | 114.0 | 9:00 PM |
| New York Knicks | at | Los Angeles Lakers | LAL-7.5 | 224.5 | 108.5 | 116.0 | 10:30 PM |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | at | Portland Trail Blazers | PICK0.0 | 223.0 | 111.5 | 111.5 | 10:30 PM |
As is usually the case, we have a big Friday night slate with ten games scheduled to take place. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Russell Westbrook, Karl Anthony-Towns, Paul George, and Devin Booker are your top projected scorers. Center was strong all the way around, so I did move some of them down to account for that. Other than that though, the rankings are purely projection based.
Here are today’s rankings…
Head-to-Head Rankings
Ten players total to be drafted.
Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL ATLF1
Russell Westbrook OKC PORG1
Karl-Anthony TownsMIN ORLC1
Paul George OKC PORF2
Devin Booker PHO LACG2
Damian Lillard POR OKCG3
Kyle Kuzma LAL NYKF3
Bradley Beal WAS MIAG4
John Collins ATL MILF4
Nikola Vucevic ORL MINC2
Three-Person Rankings
Fifteen players total to be drafted.
Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL ATLF1
Russell Westbrook OKC PORG1
Karl-Anthony TownsMIN ORLC1
Paul George OKC PORF2
Devin Booker PHO LACG2
Damian Lillard POR OKCG3
Bradley Beal WAS MIAG4
Kyle Kuzma LAL NYKF3
Victor Oladipo IND CHIG5
John Collins ATL MILF4
Montrezl Harrell LAC PHOF5
Mike Conley MEM BKNG6
Brandon Ingram LAL NYKF6
Nikola Vucevic ORL MINC2
Marc Gasol MEM BKNC3
Four-Person Rankings
Twenty players total to be drafted.
Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL ATLF1
Russell Westbrook OKC PORG1
Karl-Anthony TownsMIN ORLC1
Paul George OKC PORF2
Devin Booker PHO LACG2
Nikola Vucevic ORL MINC2
Marc Gasol MEM BKNC3
Damian Lillard POR OKCG3
Bradley Beal WAS MIAG4
Kyle Kuzma LAL NYKF3
Victor Oladipo IND CHIG5
Mike Conley MEM BKNG6
John Collins ATL MILF4
Donovan Mitchell UTA CLEG7
Montrezl Harrell LAC PHOF5
Brandon Ingram LAL NYKF6
Lauri Markkanen CHI INDF7
Tobias Harris LAC PHOF8
Lonzo Ball LAL NYKG8
Deandre Ayton PHO LACC4
Six-Person Rankings
Thirty players total to be drafted.
Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL ATLF1
Russell Westbrook OKC PORG1
Karl-Anthony TownsMIN ORLC1
Paul George OKC PORF2
Devin Booker PHO LACG2
Nikola Vucevic ORL MINC2
Marc Gasol MEM BKNC3
Damian Lillard POR OKCG3
Bradley Beal WAS MIAG4
Kyle Kuzma LAL NYKF3
Victor Oladipo IND CHIG5
Mike Conley MEM BKNG6
John Collins ATL MILF4
Donovan Mitchell UTA CLEG7
Montrezl Harrell LAC PHOF5
Brandon Ingram LAL NYKF6
Lauri Markkanen CHI INDF7
Tobias Harris LAC PHOF8
Lonzo Ball LAL NYKG8
Deandre Ayton PHO LACC4
Jusuf Nurkic POR OKCC5
Danilo Gallinari LAC PHOF9
Khris Middleton MIL ATLF10
Eric Bledsoe MIL ATLG9
Kris Dunn CHI INDG10
Aaron Gordon ORL MINF11
C.J. McCollum POR OKCG11
T.J. Warren PHO LACF12
Luka Doncic DAL BOSG12
Hassan Whiteside MIA WASC6
Eight-Person Rankings
Forty players total to be drafted.
Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL ATLF1
Russell Westbrook OKC PORG1
Karl-Anthony TownsMIN ORLC1
Paul George OKC PORF2
Devin Booker PHO LACG2
Nikola Vucevic ORL MINC2
Marc Gasol MEM BKNC3
Damian Lillard POR OKCG3
Bradley Beal WAS MIAG4
Kyle Kuzma LAL NYKF3
Victor Oladipo IND CHIG5
Mike Conley MEM BKNG6
John Collins ATL MILF4
Donovan Mitchell UTA CLEG7
Montrezl Harrell LAC PHOF5
Brandon Ingram LAL NYKF6
Lauri Markkanen CHI INDF7
Tobias Harris LAC PHOF8
Lonzo Ball LAL NYKG8
Deandre Ayton PHO LACC4
Jusuf Nurkic POR OKCC5
Danilo Gallinari LAC PHOF9
Khris Middleton MIL ATLF10
Eric Bledsoe MIL ATLG9
Kris Dunn CHI INDG10
Aaron Gordon ORL MINF11
T.J. Warren PHO LACF12
C.J. McCollum POR OKCG11
Luka Doncic DAL BOSG12
Hassan Whiteside MIA WASC6
Rudy Gobert UTA CLEC7
Andrew Wiggins MIN ORLF13
Zach LaVine CHI INDG13
Jayson Tatum BOS DALF14
Domantas Sabonis IND CHIF15
Terry Rozier BOS DALG14
D’Angelo RussellBKN MEMG15
Myles Turner IND CHIC8
Josh Richardson MIA WASF16
Trae Young ATL MILG16
Overall Positional Rankings
Guards
Russell Westbrook OKC PORG1
Devin Booker PHO LACG2
Damian Lillard POR OKCG3
Bradley Beal WAS MIAG4
Victor Oladipo IND CHIG5
Mike Conley MEM BKNG6
Donovan Mitchell UTA CLEG7
Lonzo Ball LAL NYKG8
Eric Bledsoe MIL ATLG9
Kris Dunn CHI INDG10
C.J. McCollum POR OKCG11
Luka Doncic DAL BOSG12
Zach LaVine CHI INDG13
Terry Rozier BOS DALG14
D’Angelo RussellBKN MEMG15
Trae Young ATL MILG16
Lou Williams LAC PHOG17
Jeff Teague MIN ORLG18
Emmanuel Mudiay NYK LALG19
Malcolm Brogdon MIL ATLG20
Spencer Dinwiddie BKN MEMG21
Josh Hart LAL NYKG22
Dennis Schroder OKC PORG23
Tomas Satoransky WAS MIAG24
Josh Okogie MIN ORLG25
Forwards
Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL ATLF1
Paul George OKC PORF2
Kyle Kuzma LAL NYKF3
John Collins ATL MILF4
Montrezl Harrell LAC PHOF5
Brandon Ingram LAL NYKF6
Lauri Markkanen CHI INDF7
Tobias Harris LAC PHOF8
Danilo Gallinari LAC PHOF9
Khris Middleton MIL ATLF10
Aaron Gordon ORL MINF11
T.J. Warren PHO LACF12
Andrew Wiggins MIN ORLF13
Jayson Tatum BOS DALF14
Domantas Sabonis IND CHIF15
Josh Richardson MIA WASF16
Tim Hardaway Jr. NYK LALF17
Justise Winslow MIA WASF18
Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM BKNF19
Gordon Hayward BOS DALF20
Trevor Ariza WAS MIAF21
Noah Vonleh NYK LALF22
Marcus Morris BOS DALF23
Larry Nance Jr. CLE UTAF24
Kyle Anderson MEM BKNF25
Centers
Karl-Anthony TownsMIN ORLC1
Nikola Vucevic ORL MINC2
Marc Gasol MEM BKNC3
Deandre Ayton PHO LACC4
Jusuf Nurkic POR OKCC5
Hassan Whiteside MIA WASC6
Rudy Gobert UTA CLEC7
Myles Turner IND CHIC8
Thomas Bryant WAS MIAC9
Steven Adams OKC PORC10
JaVale McGee LAL NYKC11
DeAndre Jordan DAL BOSC12
Unadjusted Overall Rankings
Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL ATLF1
Russell Westbrook OKC PORG1
Karl-Anthony TownsMIN ORLC1
Paul George OKC PORF2
Nikola Vucevic ORL MINC2
Devin Booker PHO LACG2
Marc Gasol MEM BKNC3
Damian Lillard POR OKCG3
Deandre Ayton PHO LACC4
Bradley Beal WAS MIAG4
Jusuf Nurkic POR OKCC5
Kyle Kuzma LAL NYKF3
Victor Oladipo IND CHIG5
Mike Conley MEM BKNG6
Hassan Whiteside MIA WASC6
John Collins ATL MILF4
Rudy Gobert UTA CLEC7
Donovan Mitchell UTA CLEG7
Montrezl Harrell LAC PHOF5
Myles Turner IND CHIC8
Brandon Ingram LAL NYKF6
Lauri Markkanen CHI INDF7
Tobias Harris LAC PHOF8
Lonzo Ball LAL NYKG8
Danilo Gallinari LAC PHOF9
Khris Middleton MIL ATLF10
Eric Bledsoe MIL ATLG9
Kris Dunn CHI INDG10
Aaron Gordon ORL MINF11
T.J. Warren PHO LACF12
C.J. McCollum POR OKCG11
Luka Doncic DAL BOSG12
Andrew Wiggins MIN ORLF13
Thomas Bryant WAS MIAC9
Steven Adams OKC PORC10
Zach LaVine CHI INDG13
Jayson Tatum BOS DALF14
JaVale McGee LAL NYKC11
Domantas Sabonis IND CHIF15
Terry Rozier BOS DALG14
Josh Richardson MIA WASF16
D’Angelo RussellBKN MEMG15
DeAndre Jordan DAL BOSC12
Tim Hardaway Jr. NYK LALF17
Justise Winslow MIA WASF18
Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM BKNF19
Trae Young ATL MILG16
Gordon Hayward BOS DALF20
Lou Williams LAC PHOG17
Jeff Teague MIN ORLG18
Trevor Ariza WAS MIAF21
Noah Vonleh NYK LALF22
Emmanuel Mudiay NYK LALG19
Marcus Morris BOS DALF23
Larry Nance Jr. CLE UTAF24
Kyle Anderson MEM BKNF25
Malcolm Brogdon MIL ATLG20
Spencer Dinwiddie BKN MEMG21
Josh Hart LAL NYKG22
Dennis Schroder OKC PORG23
Tomas Satoransky WAS MIAG24
Josh Okogie MIN ORLG25
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