From DFS to DraftKings Sportsbook in New Jersey: Monday, September 24th

by Matt Trollo (MTro86) Last Updated 2018-10-02 21:33:54

The DraftKings Sportsbook is now a very real and completely legal entity in New Jersey. As originally laid out in the intial article, the purpose of this piece is to decipher which daily fantasy skills translate well to sports betting. This journey will also be about acquiring additional skills necessary to succeed in a sports betting endeavor.

Please note that I do not profess to be good at this (as the current record now attests). Follow along at your own peril.

RotoGrinders has launched Sharp Side, a new sports betting app. One of the earliest available features is the ability to track plays. Many more tools and features are to come.

Visit the DraftKings sportsbook for a free bet up to $200!

Today’s Plays (Favorites to win per unit – i.e. 1.5 units to win 1 if -150, dogs risking per unit)

Last update. Any further plays via Twitter (@FreelanceBBall).

MLB

Blue Jays +165 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.65
Dodgers/Diamondbacks 7.5o (+104) 1 unit to win 2.04

NFL

Antonio Brown to score the first TD +1000 (FD) 0.25 units to win 2.75 units
Steelers +105 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.05
Steelers/Bucs 54.5u (-107) 1.06 units to win 2.06

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7:45 ET Update

It doesn’t look like the line is going to go higher than +1.5 for Pittsburgh, but SugarHouse has the best moneyline price at +105. They also have the total at 54.5 (-107). Because I can’t sit out of prime time NFL game in which I have any lean…

Steelers +105 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.05
Steelers/Bucs 54.5u (-107) 1.06 units to win 2.06

There also appears to be some reverse line movement in a meaningless game against the Rangers and Angels. The Rangers are starting Adrian Sampson for the third time with a terrible bullpen behind him. The Angels have just two batters in the lineup (Trout & Ohtani) above a 100 wRC+ vs RHP. I don’t know if that’s enough for the line movement.

No play for now and there won’t be another update here. Should I change my mind on this game, it will be updated via Twitter (@FreelanceBBall).

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6:45 ET Update

All lineups are in now, so we can at least talk about everything, even if I elect to wait on a few things. Let’s start with MNF.

Everything I said below remains constant about the Tampa Bay offense being over-valued and Pittsburgh being the better team. If you believe in Road Ben, the under seems the play. The Steelers are supposed to have a defense that can apply pressure. If you believe that Road Ben is still destined to regress, it’s the Steelers as a dog. I’m considering either or both because I’m not sure about Road Ben. The other obvious thing to do is sit this one out, but I don’t have that kind of patience and discipline.

One prop bet that has to be taken is the Daily Odds Boost on FanDuel. Antonio Brown is +1000 to score the first TD. Are there nine players more likely? Are there even four of five players more likely? The only question is how much? I’ve settled at one quarter units.

Clayton Kershaw has a 2.65 ERA and .282 wOBA against over the last month. He also has a 3.94 SIERA and .310 xwOBA over that span with a 21.3 K%. Perfectly average numbers, except that Kershaw is not expected to be a perfectly average pitcher. Results have been improved for Robbie Ray too despite a hard hit rate above 45% in five of his last six starts, while he’s walked 11 of his last 66 batters. An open roof in Arizona should add to the offense. The issue is that the Paul Goldschmidt is out of the lineup, but the total has actually increased slightly since open.

Back for one more update before kickoff.

Antonio Brown to score the first TD +1000 (FD) 0.25 units to win 2.75 units
Dodgers/Diamondbacks 7.5o (+104) 1 unit to win 2.04

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6 PM ET Update

We have lineups for all except the west coast games. We have a forecast. We won’t be getting umpire assignments for the first game of the series.

A couple of teams are going the bullpen route in meaningful games and a couple of teams are resting regulars, changing the landscape a bit tonight. Three of the four earliest games have very large favorites. One of the more interesting ones is in Toronto. Dallas Keuchel has not been pitching well, while Marco Estrada has done so in two of his last three starts. The Astros have a reputation of being a strong lineup against RHP despite being predominantly right-handed, but outside of a couple of key bats, that’s not really the case. I believe the Astros may be over-valued in this spot. SugarHouse has our best line.

With the cool weather and wind blowing in from Boston, an opportunity appears to have been missed with the total in Boston dropping a run and a half since open. It’s at an uncomfortable eight currently. The total has dropped in Chicago (AL) a full run as well due to Cleveland lineup omissions. Hard to trust Dylan Covey though.

Surprisingly, of the games that start before 8:30 PM ET, that looks to be it. I’m leaning Yankees if it’s going to be Ryan Yarbrough for even a few innings, which I think it is, but you can never be sure with the Rays. If the line drops to make them plus money, that could be an additional early play, but there’s a good chance it’s just this one and then another update which will include MNF thoughts before 8pm.

Blue Jays +165 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.65

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Friday’s recap:

Cubs/White Sox 9o (-114) 1.14 units to win 2.14 W +1
Jacob deGrom 9 or more strikeouts (+170) (BS) 1 unit to win 2.7 L -1
Royals/Tigers 9o (+110) (FD) 1 unit to win 2.1 L -1
Marlins +125 (BS) 1 unit to win 2.25 (Note: Using an earned BS Free Bet for this play) W 1.25
Phillies +136 (SH special promo price) 1 unit to win 2.36 L -1
Angels +175 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.75 L -1
Rockes +112 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.12 W +1.12

CFB

Washington State +4.5 (-110) 1.1 units to win 2.1 W +1

MLB

Day Total 3-4 -0.63
Grand Total 75-86-1 -4.13 units
Sides 40-50 -3.33 units
Totals 32-28-1 +1.25 units
Parlays 3-5 -1.12 units
Props 2-4 -0.9 units

NFL

Day Total
Grand Total 4-1 +3 units
Spread 2-0 +2 unit
Moneyline 1-0 +1 unit
Totals 1-0 +1 unit
Parlays 0-1 -1 unit

CFB

Day Total 1-0 +1
Grand Total 4-4 -0.4 units
Spread 2-2 -0.2 units
Totals 2-2 -0.2 units

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Fairly stress free win on the Friday afternoon total.

Painful loss on the deGrom 9 Ks prop at +170. Had seven through five. Got just one of last six and then lifted at 98 pitches. Would have faced bottom of the order in 8th. Still feel it was the right play for the price. Really surprised he didn’t pitch the eighth there.

While deGrom put up a line of 7 IP – 3 H – 1 R – 8 K, Wei-Yin Chen did him a bit better with 7 IP – 3 H – 0 R – 8 K. It took the Marlins extra-innings to win.
Tigers and Royals scored all of the runs on Thursday night when the under was played, couldn’t get the pushing run home from scoring position in the ninth on Friday.

The Phillies broke a 1-1 tie in the seventh with three runs and ended the inning down by two.

Houston was the blowout that never had a chance.

German Marquez allowed two in the first, but that was all. The Rockies later tied it up and took it home, dropping the MLB deficit on the day to under a unit.

Sleep overcame me in the third quarter of the college game with the dog up two TDs. Washington St. ended up losing by three, good enough for the cover and to turn a small profit on the day overall.

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Not recorded here, a weekend of football was just about break even with the FanDuel no risk moneyline bet on the Eagles making the difference.

Let’s talk about that for a minute. The bet was $100 risk free on either the Jets, Giants or Eagles. The Jets had already passed on Thursday, so it was down to the Giants and Eagles. I believe going conservative was a mistake. This isn’t a result oriented conclusion, but on a $100 risk, there was over a $200 difference. I have absolutely no clue if there is a correct mathematical decision there, but for the difference in payout, it just felt wrong (and too conservative) to take the Eagles afterward.

Last week was a small losing week overall for MLB plays and the first posted loss in consecutive weeks. It would seem worthwhile to examine if it’s just a bad run, which is going to happen, or something more.

The interesting thing is that there has been a slight decrease in plays without a conscious effort to do so. But we play dogs and a lot of times, dogs are going to lose. Sometimes we play big dogs and big dogs are going to lose much more often. A losing record is expected even, but that does not at all mean a profit can’t be turned.

What I think has been happening recently is that a lot of unquestionably positive EV plays have been losing. The biggest example would be last week when the Diamondbacks rested their every starter, but still beat the Cubs. Once the lineup was posted, the line was then incorrect. It was caught before a readjustment some $50 higher. In fact, the bet was probably a bit light at one unit (although the loss totaled three units with props) in that particular instance considering the expected value.

Another example is the deGrom strikeout prop above from Friday. This has to hit less 40% of the time to profit. At that price and even a bit worse, it’s still probably a great play.

Some of the additional Odds Boost plays on FanDuel and Stars appear particularly +EV. Sometimes they’re also fairly sizable underdogs to hit, meaning they’re going to lose more often than they win, but should still turn a profit over time.

Over time just hasn’t been over the last two weeks. The experiment is now in red, but it was entered into with no or even negative expectation in the early run, which it still is after only a month. We have just a week left of regular season MLB and a difficult one at that as we have to consider teams that are either already on vacation mentally or those just looking to stay healthy for the post-season. The bottom line is that I still feel good about the plays that have been made over the last two weeks even if they haven’t worked out.

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Finishing up with Monday Night Football, Road Ben faces Fitz-magic. The laws of regression are screaming Steelers as an underdog (currently +1). We know who Ryan Fitzpatrick is and right now, he is being over-valued. Extremely over-valued. The problem is that Road Ben has been Road Ben for several years now. When is it actually a thing rather than a thing that’s expected to regress? Compared to other sports, a full season of football is a very small sample. Even several seasons can still be a small sample. Considering only half the games played are on the road, we’re still only taking about 24 games over three seasons (not including post-season).

Perhaps a play on the under can consider the more likely regression of the Tampa Bay offense at this point, if we still think Road Ben is a thing. It still may be difficult to fade Pittsburgh here in an underdog role. I’ve yet to see the argument that they’re not the better team in this contest.