From DFS to DraftKings Sportsbook in New Jersey: Tuesday, September 11th
The DraftKings Sportsbook is now a very real and completely legal entity in New Jersey. As originally laid out in the intial article, the purpose of this piece is to decipher which daily fantasy skills translate well to sports betting. This journey will also be about acquiring additional skills necessary to succeed in a sports betting endeavor.
Please note that this is an experiment and I do not profess to be good at this. Follow along at your own peril.
Last week, RotoGrinders launched Sharp Side, a new sports betting app. One of the earliest available features is the ability to track plays. Many more tools and features are to come.
Lastly, a note that there will be no article tomorrow (Wednesday).
Our Favorite NJ Online Sportsbooks
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Today’s Plays (Favorites to win per unit – i.e. 1.5 units to win 1 if -150, dogs risking per unit)
Passing on west coast games for now. Any further updates tonight via Twitter (@FreelanceBBall) and a reminder that there will be no article tomorrow (Wednesday).
Tigers +186 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.86
Orioles +160 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.60
Brewers +112 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.12
Pirates +128 (FD) 1 unit ton win 2.28
Diamondbacks/Rockies 10.5 (-104) (FD) 1.04 units to win 2.04
Daily Odds Boost: Two Team Parlay (Mets/Yankees) +150 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.5
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7:30 ET Update
Two considerations on the west coast tonight. The Mariners should score some runs against Bryan Mitchell and FanDuel has the team Over at 4.5 (-114), but if Mitchell walks the park and ends up stranding enough through the first few innings, San Diego still has one of the best pens in baseball.
I also feel both Mike Foltynewicz and Andrew Suarez are both a bit over-valued in a general sense. Both have a high K/SwStr, which suggests their strikeout rates should regress at some point. I may still consider an Over if it drops below seven or maybe even at seven with even money. It probably won’t drop that far and that’s such a tough park.
As of now, passing on the late games. No further updates tonight. If something should pop, I’ll add any additional plays via Twitter (@FreelanceBBall), but that’s not very likely right now.
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6:15 PM ET Update
This is just a quick update because I forgot to mention a couple of things below. The game at Coors also has a favorable umpiring situation. Also, FanDuel is offering a Daily Odds Boost on a Mets/Yankees parlay at +150 tonight. As mentioned below, this bit us on MNF last night, but it was also a bet we’d have to make at that value every time. This may not be exactly that, but it is an improvement over a parlay that would pay +116 if played normally. I had already liked Jacob deGrom and the Mets and was considering another high priced team to pair them with earlier. This takes care of that in an optimal way.
Daily Odds Boost: Two Team Parlay (Mets/Yankees) +150 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.5
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6PM ET Update
We have all non-west coast lineups. We have an updated forecast. And we have some umpire assignments. There’s also now a good idea where I want to go with tonight’s card and it’s about as high risk as we’ve gone this season. Evidently, I’m not comfortable being in the green and am constantly looking for ways to lose it back. You see, I too play better as an underdog.
Let’s start with an early game. Framber Valdez has been a quality contact manager for the Astros, but that doesn’t explain the entirety of a three run gap between ERA and estimators. Jordan Zimmermann actually has the lower SIERA. Price on the Tigers may be a bit too high and the line hasn’t moved since it opened.
Here’s one I knew I was going to hate to like as soon as I saw the starting pitching, before even seeing the lines. Mike Fiers is flying well below his estimators since being traded. Alex Cobb is better than he was in the first half. The bullpen situations are still polar opposites and the A’s also hit the ball hard. We also have a bit of reverse line movement in this one. This is one I could be looking to buy out of when it gets to the Baltimore pen, but for now…
We’ve got reverse line movement to support this one. Everyone knows about Jhoulys Chacin platoon issues. I’ve also been lower than most on Jose Quintana over the last couple of years. He’s had some issues with RHBs as well and the Brewers can mash. I have these two lineups fairly evenly matched and will gladly take the dog.
Let’s go back to the well again with the Pirates too. They blew a four run lead last night, but I like this pitching matchup with Joe Musgrove against Miles Mikolas, who has been struggling recently. Both pitchers have exactly a 4.60 ERA over the last 30 days, but Musgrove has a 3.00 SIERA a full run lower than Mikolas over that span. The St Louis bullpen also has a 4.9 K-BB% over the last 30 days that’s worst in baseball.
Finally, for the early slate, Antonio Senzatela has and ERA and estimators all above four and a half with a reverse split that doesn’t really hurt the Arizona bats. Zack Greinke has been struggling recently, allowing seven HRs over his last five starts. He has just a 20.9 K% over that span. Pitchers with contact issues generally don’t fare well in Colorado.
Tigers +186 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.86
Orioles +160 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.60
Brewers +112 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.12
Pirates +128 (FD) 1 unit ton win 2.28
Diamondbacks/Rockies 10.5 (-104) (FD) 1.04 units to win 2.04
I bet a round robin will pay nicely when this card sweeps too.
I’ll be back probably with one more update here for west coast games before 8pm ET.
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Yesterday’s recap:
MLB
Indians/Rays 7 Under (-102) (FD) 1.02 units to win 2.02 L -1.02
Rays +140 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.4 W +1.4
Cardinals 8 Over (-134) (FD) 1.34 units to win 2.34 W +1
White Sox/Royals 8.5 Under (-107) (DK) 1.07 units to win 2.07 W +1
Pirates +118 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.18 L -1
Rangers +118 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.18 W +1.18
Giants +105 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.05 L -1
NFL
Rams -6 (-110) (FD) 1.1 units to win 2.1 W +1
Daily Special Moneyline Parlay Lions and Rams +150 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.5 L -1
MLB
Day Total 4-3 +1.56
Grand Total 58-58-1 +3.37 units
Sides 31-33 +3.07 units
Totals 28-22-1 +3.69 units
Parlays 1-4 -3.39 units
NFL
Day Total 1-1 0 units
Grand Total 1-0 +1 unit
Spread 1-0 +1 unit
Totals 1-0 +1 unit
Parlays 0-1 -1 unit
CFB
Day Total
Grand Total 1-2 -1.2 units
Spread 0-2 -2.2 units
Totals 1-0 +1 unit
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Doyle Brunson was once asked if he was presented with a positive expectation proposition, would he be willing to risk his entire net worth if that was the only choice. Absolutely, he said. I don’t believe that for a minute, but the circumstances surrounding FanDuel’s Daily Special last night made me think of this.
Even though I admitted to having less confidence in Detroit as game time approached, there was too much value in that Dailiy Special parlay on FanDuel to pass up (+250 on a true -117 bet at the time). Unfortunately, Matthew Stafford looked like the QB starting his first NFL game. The Jets may have just picked him off again as I write this and the game’s been over for hours. It’s a bet you probably have to make every time though. The late game was close with the Rams even going into halftime behind, but it never really felt like they were in serious danger of losing that game and the final score looked closer to a blowout.
On the baseball end, the over in St Louis was the easy one. Took all of three innings. Elsewhere, Corey Kluber was knocked out in the second. Good for the Rays, bad for the under. Except that the Rays blew that three run lead. A four run third inning lead for the Pirates was gone by the fourth too. They also blew a 6-4 eighth inning lead, just as Ji-Man Choi hit a walk-off home run down 5-4 with two outs in the ninth. Nice to have one of those go your way once in a while. I’ll take the trade off with the Rays the larger dog. Considering five runs were scored in the first three innings in Kansas City, finishing with seven and catching the under could be considered fortunate as well. The west coast games split, cashing on the bigger dog.
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Reminiscing over the weekend about some old sports betting stories, many of them not fit to print, others when I completely run out of topics, we recalls some of the crazy tactics employed to get our bets in every weekend. These even occasionally included collecting spare change to make long distance calls on a pay phone and then passing it back and forth, hoping that time wouldn’t run out.
Needless to say, there was a lot less information available in those days. Almost everyone was a casual bettor. But also, I’ve realized that even though I’ve always considered myself stat and sport saavy, definitely as it pertains to baseball and often football as well, I’ve drastically changed how I think about the games with the advent of the analytical revolution.
When I was a kid, just for fun, I would play a game with my father where we would look at the lines in the newspaper in the morning (even those were different…anyone remember seeing something like “Yankees 7-8 Blue Jays” in the daily paper?) and make picks based solely on the pitching line published in the paper. These would include W/L records and ERA overall, home/away and last three starts.
I think I still did pretty well, but the books were so far ahead of just about everyone that they must have crushed. I don’t doubt they’re still crushing, but with all the information available to everyone know, is it more difficult for them too? Of course, not everyone is taking advantage of all the information available to them. Not everyone has the time. Not everyone wants to spend money to spend on tracking either.
I wonder if competition and information has hurt their bottom line at all though. Back in the day, the vig was always 10% on top of the bet. Everything was -110 with the spread. Now, online sportsbooks might decrease or adjust one side or the other and even offer bonuses. I don’t doubt that their information stays ahead of our information, but nobody’s making bets based on pitcher win-loss records anymore or even ERA.
Every single game is still a complete minefield in and of itself. Look at the Jets last night. Look at most games on any given baseball slate. Yet, the information we have makes me much more confident that I’m at least thinking about things the right way now.
Books used to cook up a bad line, the sharps would tell them and they’d adjust with most bettors not much the wiser until long after a large line move took place. Now, when a bad line gets hammered, everyone knows and a lot of people have the ability to know quite quickly.
Again, the books will probably always have the advantage and they’ve even been able to create additionally attractive bets (props) and gimmicks that give them more of an advantage, but I have to believe the edge might be narrowing with more people at least thinking the right way, though maybe increased volume makes this less of a problem for the major players. Even so called “sharp books” like Pinnacle must still be making money or they would no longer be in business or openly cater to the type of clientele the do.