MLB Betting Picks & Odds — Friday, April 23rd
Previewing my MLB predictions on Tuesday, I stressed the importance of bettors (and sports betting analysts, for that matter) keeping their composure throughout the full 162-game season. There will be low moments, and of course, there will be spectacular highs.
Like clockwork, I nailed all four of my MLB Bets of the Day, and aced my Moneyline Parlay of the Day as the icing on the cake. If you had followed my advice, you would have cashed out over $1,000 in just five bets. That’s what we call a spectacular high.
My season-long record for Bets of the Day now stands at 13-6, and we’re ready to roll into the weekend with some momentum. There’s a bunch of aces taking the mound Friday, and plenty of angles to attack. So, let’s get after it!
All MLB odds for this article are from BetMGM and PointsBet. All stats via MLB.com and Baseball Reference.
MLB Picks & Predictions — Friday, April 23
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Pitching Matchup: Kyle Hendricks vs. Brett Anderson
MLB Pick: Cubs (Odds TBD)
I don’t love this game, but I want to pick it because it’s the day game. Everybody and their mother will be picking the Brewers in this one, pointing to “(player-popup #brett-anderson)Brett Anderson”:/players/brett-anderson-10656’s sparkly 2-1 record and 2.65 ERA compared to “(player-popup #kyle-hendricks)Kyle Hendricks”:/players/kyle-hendricks-16517’ 0-2 record and 6.92 ERA. However, I think Hendricks is a much better pitcher than he has let on so far, and Anderson is much worse than his current stats suggest.
When Anderson faced these same Cubs on April 5, he self-destructed in the fourth frame. The lefty gave up four runs on three homers, and finished with just four K’s in five innings. Now, full disclosure: for basically the rest of his outings, he’s been pretty damn good. But remember, we are just 10 percent of the way through the season. I just don’t buy a journeyman with a 4.04 career ERA and 1.329 lifetime WHIP suddenly making a massive breakthrough as an All-Star pitcher in his age-33 season.
I also don’t buy Hendricks continuing to struggle. The 31-year-old Cubs veteran has an ERA title to his name, he was an integral part of Chicago’s 2016 World Series win, and he finished in the top 10 in NL Cy Young voting in 2019. In that 2019 season, he averaged an MLB-best 0.9 walks through nine innings. So far in 2021, he averages 4.8 free passes per nine. Last season, Hendricks finished with a 2.88 ERA. Through three games this year, his ERA sits at 6.92.
The Cubs are coming off a three-game sweep of the Mets, they have won four of their last five contests, and they have scored 40 runs in that span. With Chicago’s bats finally awake after a relatively cold start to the season, I expect Hendricks to follow suit and put together a quality start at Wrigley against a Christian Yelich-less Brewers squad.
Side note: as of this writing, the odds have yet to be posted for this game—if Chicago’s moneyline yields anything -130 or better, I will be all over it. If not, move on to the next bet.
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals
Pitching Matchup: Jacob deGrom vs. Erick Fedde
MLB Pick: Mets -1.5 (-130, BetMGM)
Jacob deGrom uncharacteristically asked Mets manager Luis Rojas for an extra day’s rest between his last start and this one. As a result, the best pitcher in the world gets to face off against Erick Fedde and a struggling Nationals squad on a Friday night.
It’s beyond comprehension how little love deGrom gets, simply because he plays for the God-forsaken Mets. For over three years now, he has been at the absolute top of his craft, maintaining an ERA below 2.00 between 2018 and today. He has 62 quality starts in the 79 games he has started in that span (78.5% QS rate). Yet, he only has 37 wins in those 79 starts.
Look deeper, and the situation gets even murkier for this shining ray of light on the mound. In 33 no-decisions over deGrom’s past four seasons, he has a 1.76 ERA. It’s all thanks to the putrid run support the Mets’ offense has offered him—just around four runs per nine innings pitched over the past four years. That’s the third-worst run support for any pitcher in that timeframe.
Long story short, deGrom is due for some run support. And the Mets offense desperately needs to wake up. Despite adding perennial MVP candidate Francisco Lindor, and top-slugging catcher James McCann, the Metropolitans have just 45 runs on the season (MLB-worst by 10 runs). Of course, the Mets have only played 16 games, due to Washington’s COVID-19 outbreak postponing these clubs’ first matchup slated for Opening weekend. But the averages paint an ugly picture, too: New York’s team slugging percentage is just .357, which ranks 27th in the MLB.
So why pick the Mets, you may rightly ask!? Well, Washington has been struggling at the plate, too. The Nats have only 55 runs, just 10 more than New York despite having 78 more at-bats. They also have a worse team OBP (.317) than the Mets (.325). And they have Erick Fedde going against deGrom. On the season, Fedde’s ERA and WHIP are somehow worse than his career marks of 5.13 and 1.519 (2021: 5.56, 1.676). He lets a lot of men on, and gets flustered when he gets into jams. That should be music to the Mets’ ears, and for that matter, deGrom’s.
I think New York rights the ship Friday night, especially considering superstar Nationals outfielder Juan Soto is on the shelf right now. If anyone can break the Mets out of a slump, it’s the best pitcher in baseball. Hopefully deGrom’s offense actually does something besides ogle his magnificence.
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
Pitching Matchup: Yu Darvish vs. Clayton Kershaw
MLB Pick: Padres +1.5 (-160) or +125 ML (BetMGM)
There are a lot of games I considered for my third Bet of the Day, including breakout pitcher Sandy Alcantara and the Marlins over the Giants. But it’s just impossible for me to avoid the best and most prolific matchup of the day, which will more than likely lead the weekend in viewership ratings.
Yu Darvish and Clayton Kershaw each had awful outings on Opening Day. Darvish gave up four earned runs on eight hits against Arizona, and Kershaw gave up five earned runs on 10 hits in Colorado. But since then, they have gone back to their ace ways. They have each gone at least six innings in their last three games, and each struck out 22 total batters in that span. Darvish has allowed just one earned run in each of his last three games, while Kershaw has allowed just one total run over his past three.
I’m still going with Darvish here, in the rematch of their heavyweight fight last Saturday. The 2020 NL Cy Young runner-up has an 0.811 WHIP, a .170 batting average against, and he averages 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings. The Padres have been battling, and just won an incredibly tight 3-2 game in the series-opener against the Dodgers Thursday. The season series now sits at 3-3, and you have to think things will remain close between these clubs all year.
I’m way too into San Diego this season, I know, but I stand by my convictions. Give me the value attached to a +125 Padres’ moneyline, or the added insurance of the +1.5 spread (-160) on BetMGM.
MLB Parlays of the Day
Moneyline Parlay of the Day
New York Mets (-300) vs. Washington Nationals (Jacob deGrom vs. Erick Fedde) – see above. The best pitcher in baseball puts the Mets on his back once again, and they are actually able to generate some run support against the oft-erratic Fedde.
San Diego Padres (+125) at Los Angeles Dodgers (Yu Darvish vs. Clayton Kershaw) – see above. Oddsmakers obviously like Kershaw and the reigning champions here. But I’m convinced Darvish is the better pitcher at this point, and San Diego showed a lot of grit in a tight win over LA Thursday.
Houston Astros (-140) vs. Los Angeles Angels (Zack Greinke vs. Andrew Heaney) – Greinke has been electric so far, and the Astros still pack plenty of punch offensively.
Miami Marlins (+115) vs. San Francisco Giants (Sandy Alcantara vs. Alex Wood) – Sandy Alcantara is the best pitcher your uncle still hasn’t heard of yet. In another month, the whole nation will probably know his name.
Total Parlay Odds: +1000
Bet: $50 |To Win: $500 |Total Payout: $550
Spread Parlay of the Day
San Diego Padres +1.5 (-160) at Los Angeles Dodgers (Yu Darvish vs. Clayton Kershaw) – see above. The Padres move ahead in the season series 4-3 behind an instant-classic by Darvish. LA immediately reties the series Saturday with Trevor Bauer over Blake Snell.
Miami Marlins +1.5 (-191) vs. San Francisco Giants (Sandy Alcantara vs. Alex Wood) – see above. Alcantara is superb. Even if you don’t want to bet the Marlins on the moneyline because of their offensive inconsistencies, bet on Alcantara with a 1.5-run handicap.
New York Mets -1.5 (-136) vs. Washington Nationals (Jacob deGrom vs. Erick Fedde) – see above. deGrom at home against Fedde and a struggling Nationals offense? Sign me up.
Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+120) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Huascar Ynoa vs. Luke Weaver) – Ynoa I gotta’ make a pun on this one. The Braves offense is much better than it has looked this season, and it’s head-and-shoulders better than the D-backs without Ketel Marte. I like the odds here.
Total Parlay Odds: +848
Bet: $50 |To Win: $424 |Total Payout: $474
MLB Odds for Friday
Image Credit: Imagn