MLB DFS Slate Preview: Thursday, July 27
Taylor Smith previews the Thursday, July 27th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Thursday is usually a slow day in the MLB streets, but this one is even more sluggish than usual. We’ve got just 3 games on tap for tonight’s main slate, with both DraftKings and FanDuel opting against including Game 2 of the Angels-Tigers doubleheader. What’s unique about this particular tiny slate is that every single pitcher is pretty good, even if most of them are in suboptimal on-paper matchups. That gives us plenty of different paths from a roster construction standpoint, so this should be more interesting than your run-of-the-mill 3-gamer.
Let’s get a bird’s-eye view and identify the best MLB DFS picks for Thursday night.
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- WAS-NYM is tagged as YELLOW/GREEN in Kevin Roth’s early morning report with the potential for a late start or an early delay. This is meaningful, especially considering Kodai Senga is likely to carry more ownership than any other pitcher in an advantageous spot against the Nationals. It’s also hot and humid with winds blowing out here, so the conditions are good for hitting.
- CHC-STL gets a GREEN, and this game has the best hitting weather on the board. We’re talking about triple-digit temperatures in St. Louis with humidity and light winds blowing out. That sounds brutal if you’re sitting there roasting in the stands, but it’s perfect for bats.
- CLE-CWS features the most mild temperatures on the slate around 80 degrees at first pitch, but Guaranteed Rate Field is also the most hitter-friendly park of the 3.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Amed Rosario was traded to the Dodgers for the ghost of Noah Syndergaard last night, so the Guardians will have a new everyday shortstop moving forward. Gabriel Arias, who has multi-positional eligibility on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is projected to start in Rosario’s vacated shortstop spot tonight.
- Willson Contreras has missed 3 of the Cardinals’ last 4 games after suffering a hip injury last weekend, but he’s expected to return to the lineup tonight after sitting out of yesterday’s matinee affair. Jordan Walker is also projected to return and hit sixth after getting a rest yesterday in Arizona.
- Francisco Alvarez started behind the plate last night after leaving Tuesday’s game with a hand injury, so he’s clearly no worse for the wear. He’s expected to start again tonight against Josiah Gray.
- Tommy Pham returned to the Mets’ lineup as the DH last night after missing several games with a sore groin. Mark Vientos started at third base in place of Brett Baty against the lefty yesterday, but Baty should reclaim the role tonight.
- Yasmani Grandal is expected to return to the White Sox’ lineup after getting a night off yesterday. That’ll send Seby Zavala back to the bench.
- Miguel Amaya is projected to start behind the plate for the Cubs tonight in place of Tucker Barnhart.
- Bo Naylor should be back in the Guardians’ lineup tonight as the starting catcher after David Fry gave him a breather yesterday.
- Every offense is stackable on such a short slate. The Mets are popping off for the highest pOWN as a stack on both DraftKings and FanDuel against Gray, but the right-hander has pitched significantly better than he did last season when he was a home run machine. Both offenses in the CHC-STL game look good thanks to the weather, but the matchup slightly favors Chicago against the more pedestrian Miles Mikolas. The Cardinals get a tougher draw against Justin Steele, though this will be Steele’s second consecutive start against STL.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Kodai Senga is the top pitcher on the slate from a salary ($10,600) and projection standpoint. His 29.7% strikeout rate is the top mark on the slate, and the Nationals happen to be the weakest offense on the board in terms of power. Control has been an issue for Senga this season, however. Tanner Bibee ($9,600) and Dylan Cease ($9,400) are expected to pull some ownership on different sides of the same game. Bibee projects slightly better against a White Sox lineup with a collective 24% strikeout rate vs. right-handed pitching on the year.
- Mikolas is the cheapest arm on the slate at $7,800 against the Cubs, while Steele ($10,000) and Gray ($8,600) are lower on the list in their respective matchups.
- Gray’s barrel rate of 7.5% is about 3% lower than it was last season, but it’s come at the cost of some strikeouts (20%). He’s still walking everybody (10.4%), and the projected Mets lineup owns a collective 9.6% walk rate vs. RHPs. New York qualifies as the top stack on the slate almost by default, but it’s still not a perfect spot in the more pitcher-friendly Citi Field. Most of Gray’s power troubles have come against LHBs in the past, which is enough to push Francisco Lindor ($3,700) and Brandon Nimmo ($3,400) right to the top of the list alongside Pete Alonso ($3,800). If you can’t quite get up to Alonso, Daniel Vogelbach ($2,300) offers plenty of power at a significant discount at the same position. On FD, of course, you can play them both.
- There is also value in targeting Pete Alonso to accrue more than 7.5 fantasy points tonight on Underdog. He’s capable of going over the total with one swing, and it seems a bit low against a pitcher with power prevention issues. New users can also use our Underdog Fantasy promo code for a 100% match bonus on your next deposit of up to $100.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- Mikolas hasn’t shown much ability to keep the ball on the ground this season, particularly against left-handed hitters. The same Cubs that stood out last night against Lance Lynn – Cody Bellinger, Ian Happ, and Mike Tauchman – look like great plays again tonight. Seiya Suzuki ($2,800) and Dansby Swanson ($3,300) are two more great values from the right side.
- It’ll be interesting to see how the field treats Steele tonight. He dominated this very same Cardinals offense just a few days ago, though the St. Louis lineup profiles very well against lefties. I’ll be planting my flag with the Cardinals, especially with the incredible hitting weather in this game. Tyler O’Neill is probably the best individual value bat on the slate at only $2,300, while all of Jordan Walker, Willson Contreras, and Paul DeJong are south of $3,000. You don’t need me to tell you that paying up for Paul Goldschmidt ($3,900) and Nolan Arenado ($3,800) is a good idea.
- Pitcher salaries are quite a bit lower on DraftKings, with the $9,000 Senga leading the way. Steele ($8,600) and Cease ($8,000) are next up, while everybody else is at $7,200 or under. Senga is your first stop for cash game builds, while the savings on Bibee ($7,200) are useful in all formats.
- Goldschmidt ($6,000) and Arenado ($5,700) will cost you, but there’s nobody else in the projected Cardinals lineup over $4,000 on DK. Salaries don’t matter that much to begin with with such cheap pitching, but the St. Louis stack comes together remarkably easily. I’ll again be looking to O’Neill ($3,600) as a core play, even if his 2023 numbers thus far pale in comparison to those he put up a season ago.
- It’s a similar story with the Mets, where Alonso ($5,500), Lindor ($5,200), and Nimmo ($4,800) are the only pricey hitters. Vogelbach is almost the minimum ($2,200) with the platoon edge against Gray, while Francisco Alvarez ($3,800) stands out as one of the best ways to fill your catcher spot in all formats. Alvarez’s .335 ISO against right-handed pitching on the season is one of the best marks in the sport.
- A few one-off values to consider on DK are Dylan Carlson ($2,300), Gabriel Arias ($2,000), Bo Naylor ($2,600), and Oscar Colas ($2,200).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck tonight!