MLB DFS Slate Preview: Wednesday, April 5
Erik Wardenburg previews the Wednesday, April 5th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
It’s an early main slate today with 9 games starting at 1:05PM EST. We’re loaded with aces, as most teams are through their rotations and back at their #1 SPs, so we’re going to need to find some value bats to get the high upside pitchers we want in cash games.
There’s an interesting dynamic on DK today, as they’ve priced Orioles top SP prospect Grayson Rodriguez at $4,000. I’m expecting his ownership to be pretty high, and I will probably end up with him on my cash game lineup, but make sure to build plenty of GPP teams without him, as he will really help lower the ownership of the top SPs with higher ceilings than him. Let’s get to the slate and some of my top MLB DFS picks!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can get a better idea if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games that are at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- PIT/BOS is going be cold (40 degrees before wind chill) and wet (off and on light rain all game) with 10-15mph wind blowing in, so probably a good game to avoid taking many bats in if any at all.
- SF/CHW could see a late start but the game should play fine, with temps in the 60s and a strong right to left wind of 25-30mph all game.
- PHI/NYY will have light rain, temps in the low 50s, and 10mph wind blowing in from center, so advantage pitchers in this one.
- TB/WSH is the best hitting weather of the slate, as it will be in the mid 80s with 10-15mph wind blowing out to center. ATL/STL is next best with temps in the 60s and 15mph wind blowing out.
- Today’s dome games are MIN/MIA, NYM/MIL, BAL/TEX, and DET/HOU.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit that extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Realmuto and Rizzo will both be back in after sitting yesterday, with PHI and NYY likely rolling out their standard lineups against righties. Stanton is getting a breather today with Cordero starting for him.
- Tampa and Washington will both go righty-heavy against lefty opponents, along with the Twins who remain without Kepler (knee) and will sit Gallo and go with 8 righties in their lineup today. Miami is going with Chisholm at leadoff as Arraez gets a day off.
- Burleson should continue to hit 2nd for STL with Nootbaar on the IL, and look for Berti and Hampson to get most of the SS work for Miami with Wendle going on the IL. Duvall is getting a breather for Boston with Tapia starting for him, while Chang and Wong will start for Hernandez and McGuire.
- Milwaukee should roll out a similar righty heavy lineup as the last time they faced a lefty, with Brosseau potentially leading off again. Eloy Jimenez is heading to the IL so we should see more Gavin Sheets against righties, and Javier Baez is getting a day off for Detroit today.
- My favorite stack is Tampa Bay against Corbin, as the hitting conditions are excellent and Corbin is just a bad pitcher now, starting his season off last game with 7 hits, 3 walks, 3 ER, and just 3 K’s vs Atlanta. They’re the only team with a projected run total above 5 currently, have a nice mix of expensive and value bats, and have come out on fire this season hitting the 2nd most HR’s so far and leading the league in SLG percentage.
- Other stacks I like taking shots on are ATL, STL, MIL, TEX, and HOU.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For some insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, be sure to read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Gerrit Cole ($11,100) is the cash game pitcher I want, as his upside is just too great, and he’s not that much more expensive than the other aces going today. Cristian Javier ($10,000) has the best matchup of the aces against DET so I can’t fault anyone going with him in cash games, while Dylan Cease ($10,800) and Shane McClanahan ($10,600) are my next favorite SPs.
- Pablo Lopez ($9,400) is my favorite GPP pitcher today, as he gets to face his former team in the Marlins who haven’t scored more than 2 runs in a game since opening day. His opponent Jesus Luzards ($9,000) is also a great GPP play, and for dirt cheap I like taking a shot on Corey Kluber ($7,100) against Pittsburgh, as the weather should really favor the pitchers in Fenway.
- I’m starting my bats in cash games with at least two of Yandy Diaz ($3,000), Randy Arozarena ($3,900), and Wander Franco ($3,900), and will likely go with a full TB stack that includes a value bat like Isaac Paredes ($2,300), Harold Ramirez ($2,200), or Manuel Margot ($2,300).
- I also want exposure to the ATL/STL game with two mediocre righty SPs going in nice hitting conditions, and will do my best to get in Ronald Acuna ($4,300), Matt Olson ($4,000), or Austin Riley ($3,700). Brendon Donovan ($3,300) and Alec Burleson ($2,700) make for a great cheap ministack at the top of the order for STL.
- Brian Anderson ($2,500) is the hottest hitter in baseball right now with 3 HR’s in his last two games, so I don’t mind him if you need a salary-saving 3B/OF bat, and the trio of Jeremy Pena ($3,100), Alex Bregman ($3,200), and Jose Abreu ($3,300) make for a great high-upside stack with the platoon advantage against Rodriguez for DET.
- More cheap bats to consider in cash games include Ozzie Albies ($3,200), Nolan Gorman ($3,100), Mike Brosseau ($2,300), Luke Voit ($2,200), and Josh Jung ($2,700).
- Right now I’m going with Gerrit Cole ($9,800) and Grayson Rodriguez ($4,000) as my cash game SPs, although I may end up spending up on my SP2 for someone with a safer floor and higher ceiling like Cristian Javier ($8,100), Shane McClanahan ($8,800), or even Pablo Lopez ($7,400), who are all extremely affordable and easy to fit in matchups I like.
- Taylor Walls ($2,300) and Jose Siri ($2,700) are my favorite value bats from my favorite stack Tampa, and I still like the prices of Diaz ($4.1k), Franco ($4.8k), and Arozarena ($5.2k).
- Matt Olson ($5,000) and Michael Harris ($4,000) are my favorite p/$ bats from ATL, and from STL I’m loving the prices of Alec Burleson ($2,600) and Nolan Gorman ($3,300).
- Brian Anderson ($3,000), Luke Voit ($2,900), and Mike Brosseau ($2,200) are a solid value trio from MIL, and although the weather isn’t great in Boston, I still like the price of Triston Casas ($2,900) if you want some cheap exposure to the Red Sox.
- Other cheap bats I like today include Isaac Paredes ($3,400), Jordan Walker ($2,600), Eddie Rosario ($2,400), Joey Wiemer ($2,300), and Josh Jung ($3,000).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!