MLB DFS Picks Today: Projections, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Values for DraftKings (March 29)
Taylor Smith previews the Friday, March 29th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
The Opening Day slate was predictably a wild one, with chalk offenses hitting pretty heavily on both the main and late slates. We’ll see how things shake out tonight when we’ve got a solid 8-gamer on DraftKings starting at 6:50 p.m. ET. Just 3 of the 8 games, however, start before 9:40 ET, so we’re looking at a late-night sweat this evening.
Let’s take an over-arching look at the first Friday slate of the new season.
MLB DFS Picks & Lineup Advice Today
This daily article highlights some of RotoGrinders’ most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer (LineupHQ), with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then, we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- We’re used to West Coast games being fairly tame from a weather standpoint, but we’ve actually got a couple of situations to monitor tonight. The sketchiest game appears to be CLE/OAK, which Roth has tagged as ORANGE early in the day. There’s expected to be rain for most of the day in the bay, and things won’t get any better tonight. Tomorrow’s forecast isn’t any better, however, so squeezing in a doubleheader on Saturday likely won’t be easy.
- STL/LAD is the other game with concerns, as we’ve got a rare YELLOW at Dodger Stadium. The rain in LA is expected to arrive late, so there seems to be a pretty good chance that they can get the game in before the heavy stuff starts.
- SF/SD will be dry tonight, while every other game on the slate takes place in either a dome or a retractable roof stadium.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- AJ Puk will make the first start of his career after serving out of the Marlins’ bullpen a season ago. Puk was utterly dominant and didn’t allow a single earned run as a starter in spring training.
- Austin Wells is projected to start behind the plate for the Yankees tonight against Cristian Javier after Jose Trevino started yesterday behind the plate.
- Esteury Ruiz is projected to lead off for Oakland against southpaw Logan Allen. Brent Rooker, JD Davis, and Shea Langeliers are all projected to move up in the lineup, as well, while Seth Brown is likely to hit toward the bottom of the order without the platoon edge.
- Will Brennan is expected to replace David Fry in the Guardians’ outfield, while Bo Naylor should start behind the plate after Austin Hedges got the nod yesterday against Alex Wood.
- Ha-Seong Kim is projected to lead off for the Padres against left-hander Kyle Harrison after Xander Bogaerts drew leadoff duty yesterday. Tyler Wade should also hit the bench, as we have Eguy Rosario projected to man the hot corner against the lefty.
- The Dodgers will take their swings against lefty Zack Thompson, so Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez are projected to start after coming off the bench yesterday. Both are pinch-hit risks later in the game, however. Jason Heyward and Gavin Lux aren’t likely to start tonight.
- Joc Pederson should make his first start for Arizona against righty Cal Quantrill. We have him sliding into the No. 5 hole in the Diamondbacks’ lineup, which should send Blaze Alexander blazing back to the bench.
- The Diamondbacks (5.54) and Dodgers (5.14) are the only offenses on tonight’s slate projected to top 5 runs. The lowest total on the board belongs to the Cardinals (3.36) as they prepare to face Bobby Miller. St. Louis mustered a whopping 3 hits – all by Paul Goldschmidt – in yesterday’s opener.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on DraftKings.
- The pitching crop isn’t quite as deep as it was yesterday. George Kirby ($9,700) is your headliner from a salary standpoint, while Merrill Kelly, Joe Musgrove, and Bobby Miller are all over $9,000. Kirby and Kelly are currently pulling the most projected ownership among the top group.
- Going cheaper is viable tonight, and we’re likely to see some ownership congregate around the likes of Nick Pivetta ($8,100) and AJ Puk ($7,000). Both pitchers have legitimate strikeout upside along with advantageous matchups, though Puk is admittedly volatile chalk in his first MLB start.
- The NYY/HOU game is a big question mark. Both Cristian Javier and Carlos Rodon have been terrific pitchers in the past, though they’re both coming off of shaky seasons. Would it be a huge shock to see either of them bounce back tonight? Of course not. At the same time, the offenses they’re facing are powerful enough to do serious damage here if they still haven’t figured things out. I’m inclined to prefer the Yankees’ side of things, as they’re projected to throw 4 left-handed hitters at a pitcher who really struggled to contain lefty power a season ago. Juan Soto might be the top hitter on the slate at any position. Things aren’t much easier for Rodon, as the projected Houston lineup posted a collective .205 ISO and a .359 wOBA vs. LHPs in 2023.
- We’ve got the Dodgers against a middling pitcher in Zack Thompson, so they’re going to stand out, as usual. Thompson yielded a .343 wOBA, along with average groundball stuff to right-handed bats a season ago. Mookie Betts, Will Smith, and Teoscar Hernandez will always headline any LA stacks against lefties, though I’ll gladly get to Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman from the left side in stacks if they could go relatively overlooked. Chris Taylor is likely to be a popular value piece.
- Puk’s popularity is understandable, given his cheap price point and a matchup at home against the Pirates, but taking shots on some Pittsburgh bats is viable here if you’re looking to get some leverage in GPPs. RHBs own a .321 career wOBA against the left-hander. Connor Joe and Henry Davis are a couple of cheap righties that should draw favorable spots in the order while paying up for Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Andrew McCutchen is viable at what should be very little ownership in stacks.
- A few value bats worth considering in cash games or tournaments are Victor Scott ($2,000), Connor Joe ($3,000), Yainer Diaz ($2,900), Henry Davis ($3,100), Chris Taylor ($3,100), and Michael Taylor ($2,500).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and the projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey (which can be found on the MLB Content Schedule), and Expert Plays in LineupHQ from our stable of contributors.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch our GrindersLive and Crunch Time Show Block, beginning at 1:15 PM ET.
Good luck on Opening Day!
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