MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 4/14/2022
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
It’s important to remember that MLB is much more volatile compared to NBA and even NFL, as the batter with the highest batting average facing the worst pitcher in the league can still go 0-for-4 while the 9-hole hitter with a .095 average could end up being the highest-scoring hitter of the slate.
What we want over a season of baseball is for the most likely outcomes to end up happening more often than not, which is all we can hope for based off historical data, while always knowing the day-to-day outcomes are just microcosms of those big averages and can swing way in our favor or the complete opposite way.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
The only potential rain spot is the TOR/NYY game with scattered showers throughout the night with a delay to first pitch very possible. With the risk of a mid-game delay also in play I will likely avoid the pitchers in this game as both are facing tough offenses anyways and the wind will be blowing out at 13mph.
CIN/LAD will have winds blowing out ~14mph while WAS/PIT and DET/KCC have slightly less wind blowing out around 8-10mph. ATL/SDP and CHC/COL have 9-14mph winds blowing left to right while PHI/MIA and LAA/TEX are in domes.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for DET/KCR are +28.1% while total runs CHC/COL are +13.3%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
FanDuel is including the WAS/PIT & PHI/MIA games in their main slate while DraftKings is not. I think the Nationals are a pretty sneaky stack on FD with most stack ownership going to CHC/COL/LAD/LAA today as JT Brubaker got rocked in his first start and the Nats power bats are very affordable (Soto-Cruz-Bell). I might consider Kyle Schwarber or Bryce Harper for GPPs but will likely avoid the hitters in PHI/MIA as Kyle Gibson and Sandy Alcantara are solid pitchers with Gibson in play for FD cash games today. I mentioned the potential rain in TOR/NYY so this might lower the ownership of the bats making each team decent GPP stacks even though they’re facing pretty good pitchers.
The Cubs, Rockies, and Dodgers all have team totals over 5 and each team has some excellent plays at very nice prices. With lefty starters going for each team in Coors look for Connor Joe to continue to leadoff and Clint Frazier as well for Chicago while the Dodgers could be facing an opener/bulk man situation of Cessa and Sanmartin so their lineup should have the usual guys with Justin Turner and Max Muncy at great prices. We can’t use Ohtani as a hitter today but I still like the stack of Trout-Rendon-Walsh against Dane Dunning while I won’t be targeting CIN/DET/ATL/SDP/TEX offenses all going against solid pitchers.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m looking to get in 3-4 Cubs righties as they are too cheap facing the lefty Freeland in Coors with Seiya Suzuki ($3,600) as my priority with Clint Frazier ($2,900) and Frank Schwindel ($3,000) as my next favorite options for the price. Contreras is out of the lineup today but Nick Madrigal and Jonathan Villar are hitting 2nd and 3rd and both are excellent value plays now. The Rockies are priced a bit higher but I like Connor Joe ($3,500), Brendan Rodgers ($3,000), Kris Bryant ($4,000), and C.J. Cron ($4,100) all with the platoon advantage against the lefty Steele. I definitely want a couple Dodgers in my main build too and Max Muncy for just $2,900 is the first guy I’m locking in. Justin Turner has the next best price at $3,100 while Betts, Freeman, and Turner are all great plays under $4k depending on your positional needs. Other value FD bats I’m considering include Nelson Cruz ($3,100), Josh Bell ($3,100), Anthony Rendon ($3,000), and Ben Gamel ($2,300).
Looking at DraftKings Clint Frazier is just screaming top play at $2,600 hitting leadoff today in Coors while Connor Joe is right behind him at $3,400 along with Yan Gomes at $2,900 for top value plays. Max Muncy ($4,300) and Justin Turner ($3,900) are still a bit too cheap and Cody Bellinger is another Dodger I’m liking a lot on DK at just $2,700 as he’s averaging over 15 FPPG over his last three games with a home run and a couple stolen bases and this might be the last time we see his price under $3k. Bobby Witt is still just $2,500 hitting 2nd for KC so if you need another dirt cheap guy I think he’s a fine option whose big breakout game is coming any day. Other DK value bats I’m looking at are Raimel Tapia ($3,200), Brandon Marsh ($3,200), and Carlos Santana ($3,000).
There are some solid pitching options today with Shohei Ohtani and Joe Musgrove my favorite DK combo as both are way too cheap under $8k while on FD Zack Greinke is very tempting at $7,300 and he’ll allow you fit in a lot more big bats while Ohtani, Buehler, Gibson, and Morton are my favorite spend up options with much higher ceilings than Greinke.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getitng a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn