MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 4/19/2022
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
It’s important to remember that MLB is much more volatile compared to NBA and even NFL, as the batter with the highest batting average facing the worst pitcher in the league can still go 0-for-4 while the 9-hole hitter with a .095 average could end up being the highest-scoring hitter of the slate.
What we want over a season of baseball is for the most likely outcomes to end up happening more often than not, which is all we can hope for based off historical data, while always knowing the day-to-day outcomes are just microcosms of those big averages and can swing way in our favor or the complete opposite way.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
It’s looking safe everywhere as far as rain goes with only MIN/KCR having a slight chance of rain but not enough for a postponement or delay. TOR/BOS should see ~14mph winds out to center with ATL/LAD and PHI/COL right behind at ~12-13mph winds blowing out. TBR/CHC looks like the coldest game with temps in the low 40’s and wind blowing in ~9mph while LAA/HOU, PIT/MIL, and TEX/SEA are in domes.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for TBR/CHC are -48.7% while total runs for MIN/KCR are -22.4%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
So the Phillies didn’t exactly do anything yesterday which might lower their ownership today as I am going to be right back on them as my top stack against the lefty Freeland. J.T. Realmuto and Rhys Hoskins will likely bat 1st and 2nd in the order and are my priorities while Alec Bohm is my favorite salary saver for them while Jean Segura is also in play with solid history on Freeland (4-for-9 with 2 HRs). On the other side I probably won’t look to stack Rockies as they’re priced a bit too high against a solid pitcher in Gibson but Charlie Blackmon is still very cheap on both sites to get some more Coors exposure.
Boston is also looking very stackable today against the lefty Kikuchi and 14+ mph winds blowing out to center. They’re priced up on DK but on FD Enrique Hernandez, Xander Bogaerts, and J.D. Martinez are are an affordable mini-stack while Trevor Story and Bobby Dalbec are cheaper options to add on for a full stack. Toronto has a tougher matchup against Eovaldi which could lower their ownership but with the wind blowing out they can always go off with Springer and Vlad my favorite FD plays while Gurriel/Chapman are my favorite Jays on DK for the price (both under $4,100) and if Zack Collins starts he is a solid dirt cheap catching option at $2,400.
Other stacks I’m liking today include the Brewers who are all under $3,000 on FanDuel and the Padres righties against Sanmartin as Manny Machado is just a bit too cheap still on both sites while Nola, Voit, and Myers make for a solid GPP stack with him. Another stack I like that is extremely cheap on DK are the Twins with Luis Arraez and Max Kepler both under $3k while Carlos Correa ($4,300) and Jorge Polanco ($3,600) both have great prices for a full stack.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel the first guy I’m locking in is Christian Yelich for just $2,900. Yesterday he was $3k and hit a grand slam so of course his price lowers $100 against another mediocre righty. Kolten Wong ($2,500), Willy Adames ($2,900), and Andrew McCutchen ($2,800) make for a great cheap stack with Yelich while Rowdy Tellez ($2,400) is also in play. Charlie Blackmon for $3,100 is also jumping out as too cheap with the platoon advantage in Coors coming off a solid game with a HR yesterday. Some other cheap bats on FD that I like include Carlos Correa ($3,100), Anthony Rendon ($3,000), Taylor Ward ($2,400), Trey Mancini ($2,500), and Adam Frazier ($2,900).
Looking at DraftKings now Luis Arraez is still crazy cheap at $2,500 likely hitting leadoff with tons of protection behind him in the lineup so he’s my favorite value play there today while his teammate Trevor Larnach is the bare minimum at $2k if you need some extreme value with solid upside and I have to mention Max Kepler for $2,900 too. The Phillies are going to be hard to stack with top pitching on DK but if you want Coors exposure Charlie Blackmon is still under $4k while Joe, Bryant, Cron, and McMahon are all affordable under $4.8k. Manny Machado is too cheap at $4,600 and will be my cash game 3B while Austin Nola and Luke Voit are other nice cheap Padres options under $3.7k each. More cheap DK names I’m looking at are Trey Mancini ($2,800), Jack Mayfield ($2,800), Bobby Witt ($2,900), and Rowdy Tellez ($2,900).
On FanDuel I like Robbie Ray, Corbin Burnes, and Joe Musgrove in that order for expensive pitching while Cole Irvin is a decent value option. On DK Joe Musgrove is my favorite pitcher for the price ($8,600) with Justin Steele and Cole Irvin value options to consider.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getitng a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn