MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 6/15/2022
9 games on tap today and I said we had some of the best hitting weather of the season yesterday but today we have even better conditions in a couple spots along with worse pitching in Coors than yesterday so there will be no lack of runs scored today.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
ATL/WSH is the only game with a chance of rain in the general area but it’s unlikely to end up over the ballpark so all games should be good to go today. SDP/CHC had 17 runs yesterday and that was with Manaea and Hendricks and today we get Weathers and Kilian and even stronger wind out to center (19mph) and temps in the high 80s – low 90s so 17 runs feels like the floor today. PIT/STL is the next best hitting weather game with winds out to left ~10mph and hot/humid temps in the 90s. Coors Field has a slight breeze blowing in but still nice hitting weather with temps in the low 80s – high 70s and the only dome game today is BAL/TOR.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for PIT/STL are +48.4% while total runs for SDP/CHC are +56.6%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Anthony Rendon re-aggravated his wrist injury yesterday that he just came off the IL from so he’ll probably need some time to assess the severity and after his serving his 1-game suspension Josh Donaldson should be back in there today against the lefty McClanahan. The Orioles remain without Ramon Urias and Anthony Santander and Trey Mancini likely needs a game or two more to get the swelling in his hand down. Jarren Duran was just called up for Arroyo so he could go right in to the leadoff spot today and if so he’d be a solid value play on both sites.
Like yesterday the Padres, Cardinals and Guardians remain top stacks hitting in excellent conditions and with weaker pitching on the mound compared to yesterday the Cubs and Rockies will definitely be in the mix for top stack options. That’s five excellent stacks already before I even mention the Blue Jays who currently have a 6.2 team total and might go under-owned with so much focus on the wind/heat/Coors games. The Braves, Dodgers and Red Sox also have high projected team totals over 5 and they could be the lowest-owned stacks of the 9 mentioned so far. All-in-all this is a day where having a bunch of lineups covering a bunch of combinations of all these great stacks is the best way to go and in cash games I will likely have one or two of my favorite plays for the price from a few of my favorite team stacks.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I have to start with Teoscar Hernandez who is still just $2,500 even while he’s on a 7-game hitting streak and is my favorite way to get Blue Jays exposure today along with Alejandro Kirk for just $2,800. The Cubs are way underpriced as well especially with these phenomenal hitting conditions today with Willson Contreras ($3,400), Patrick Wisdom ($3,100), and Frank Schwindel ($2,500) all looking like top plays at those prices and also Yan Gomes ($2,100) if he makes it in to the lineup today. On the other side of that game the Padres are also way under-priced with Luke Voit ($2,900), Eric Hosmer ($2,400), and Jake Cronenworth ($3,200) my favorite options for the price. You can pretty much make a full lineup with everyone mentioned so far and I haven’t even mentioned anyone in Coors today that’s how loaded today is but again Guardians and Rockies guys are just way too cheap with Amed Rosario ($2,900), Oscar Gonzalez ($2,800), Connor Joe ($3,200), and Brendan Rodgers ($3,100) my favorite plays for the price and if you can fit him in Jose Ramirez ($4,600) is easily one of the highest upside plays of the entire slate. More FD bats I’m loving for the price include Marcell Ozuna ($2,700), Tyler ONeill ($2,600), Brendan Donovan ($2,500), Yonathan Daza ($2,600), Randal Grichuk ($2,800), Jarren Duran ($2,000), and Will Smith ($2,900).
Looking at DraftKings I have to start with the Cubs as Frank Schwindel ($2,700), Patrick Wisdom ($3,500), and Willson Contreras ($4,400) are just so insanely underpriced and all three will likely be in most people’s cash game lineups and along with Schwindel at the 1B position we have Luke Voit ($3,500) and Eric Hosmer ($2,600) also just inexplicably too cheap and after hitting a double and an HR yesterday Luke Voit might draw the most ownership of the three. The Cardinals are facing a strong pitcher in Roansy Contreras but this heat, humidity, and wind are making them just too tempting to completely fade especially Tyler ONeill ($3,500) and Brendan Donovan ($3,000) at those prices and Paul Goldschmidt ($5,800) is the hottest hitter in baseball right now if you have the extra salary at 1B. Moving to Coors field bats Oscar Gonzalez ($2,800) remains a top play likely hitting cleanup and I really like the price of Yonathan Daza ($3,500) likely hitting 5th or 6th for the Rockies. Some other DK bats to consider at nice prices are Marcell Ozuna ($4,100), Andrew McCutchen ($3,100), Hunter Renfroe ($3,500), Jurickson Profar ($4,100), Nomar Mazara ($2,100), Ian Happ ($3,400), Jarren Duran ($3,000), and Ernie Clement ($3,000).
Shane McClanahan might be the best pitcher in baseball right now but does have a tall task ahead of him pitching in Yankee Stadium so just consider the matchup and how strong of an overall lineup you can build with him before immediately locking him in. His opponent Nestor Cortes has a much better matchup against the Rays bats who he held to 1 run over 8 innings a few starts ago and he comes at a price discount to McClanahan on both sites. Corbin Burnes is right there with them in salary and upside today against the Mets and is an excellent GPP play but for cash games I think I’m going a bit cheaper today on both sites with Jose Berrios and Spencer Strider who are under $9k and $8k on both sites respectively. Strider got up to 92 pitches last start and should be looking at a similar number today if he pitches well and for that price and his strikeout upside I think he’s just too cheap especially on DK where a lot of bats I want are pretty expensive. Jose Berrios gets a weakened Orioles lineup without Mancini or Santander and should have plenty of run support behind him and with 18 strikeouts over 15 IP in his last two starts he is my SP1 on both sites at his current price.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn