MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 6/7/2022
We have a huge 12-game slate today with a couple spotty rain concerns and after yesterday’s 5-game slate today feels like Christmas morning with the variety of pitching options and offenses to choose from.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
At the moment CHC/BAL has the highest risk level for rain issues as there will be light rain throughout the game but hopefully not heavy enough that they delay or postpone. DET/PIT has a broken line of storms around first pitch that should clear over time but they made need a late start and OAK/ATL is in a similar spot with a potential late start but still likely the game is played. TOR/KCR should be fine but that could change closer to first pitch so make sure to double check all these potential rain games and if you want to avoid the risk of a late postponement we have plenty of other games in safe weather spots.
COL/SFG will see the most wind at ~16mph out to center while CHC/BAL and BOS/LAA have slight lesser wind blowing out around 6-10mph. LAD/CHW will have 5-9mph winds blowing in and games in domes include PHI/MIL, SEA/HOU, & STL/TBR.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for CHC/BAL are +19.9% while total runs for NYY/MIN are +10.7%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Willy Adames is likely back tomorrow but Hunter Renfroe will come off the IL today and should be in there against the lefty Suarez and we’ll see if Luis Urias returns from his thumb injury while Max Kepler will be back in there for the Twins after missing the Toronto series for being unvaccinated. Didi Gregorius is also off the IL and should get his starting SS job back right away with Bryson Stott likely getting most of the 2B starts against righties until Segura returns and Tyler ONeill is back for STL hitting 5th today. Muncy and Rios remain out for the Dodgers so Eddy Alvarez or Zach McKinstry likely start at DH or 3B and I’m expecting Josh Donaldson to get the start against his former team which likely leaves Torres or LeMahieu out of the lineup.
My favorite stacks today are TOR, NYY, HOU, and ATL. The Blue Jays have been on fire lately with 6+ runs in eight of their last nine games and today they get the righty Keller who has allowed 22 ER over his last five starts and has just one game with more than three strikeouts in that span and TOR bats are still underpriced on both sites. The Phillies are a lower-owned stack that I like a lot too facing Alexander who was decent in his last start but did allow 3 walks with just 3 K’s and 2 ER and on the other side I think the Brewers are a sneaky stack against the lefty Suarez. If the rain holds off for CHC/BAL it should be pretty good hitting weather if you want a low-owned game stack with pretty cheap beats on both sides.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel the first guy I’m locking in is Teoscar Hernandez for just $2,800 hitting cleanup on my favorite stack of the day and right behind him I think Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is too cheap at $4,200 with four HR’s over his last six games. I want some Yankees exposure with Aaron Judge ($4,500) the obvious top play for them but if you want some cheaper exposure I really like the prices of Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton both at $3,600 and assuming Josh Donaldson starts he is very cheap at just $3,100. I also want Astros exposure and Yordan Alvarez ($4,300) is their obvious top play but for much cheaper I really like Kyle Tucker ($3,400) and Michael Brantley ($2,900) with the platoon advantages. Other FD value bats I really like today include Santiago Espinal ($2,800), Andrew McCutchen ($2,700), Tyler ONeill ($2,700), Didi Gregorius ($2,600), Trevor Larnach ($2,400), and Javier Baez ($2,400).
Looking at DraftKings the Blue Jays are priced up a bit but Teoscar Hernandez ($4,400) and especially Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($4,700) are still my favorite TOR bats for the price. The top Yankees bats are all $5k+ so they aren’t a priority for me there and for the Astros Michael Brantley ($3,900) is my favorite for the price. The Brewers have a few bats under $4k that I like in Andrew McCutchen ($3,500), Hunter Renfroe ($3,900), and Tyrone Taylor ($3,600) and I mentioned CHC/BAL as a potential game stack if the rain holds off with a lot of cheap options on both sides including Ian Happ ($3,600), Frank Schwindel ($3,300), Anthony Santander ($3,600), and Ryan Mountcastle ($3,100). Other cheap DK bats to consider are Santiago Espinal ($3,600), Albert Pujols ($2,400), Harrison Bader ($2,700), Tyler ONeill ($3,500), Yulieski Gurriel ($2,700), Trevor Larnach ($2,800), and Luke Voit ($2,700).
On FanDuel I’m leaning Carlos Rodon as the SP1 as he’s over $1k cheaper than Manoah and Verlander and I think he has a higher strikeout ceiling than Wright (had 12 K’s against COL last month) but all four could easily be the highest scoring pitcher today. On DK those top four options are all $10k+ so it’ll be hard to fit two of them with top bats but for super cheap I kind of like taking a shot on Dakota Hudson for $5,700 as he’s allowed just 1 ER over his last two starts, has averaged around 100 pitches over his last couple starts, has a good matchup against the Rays, and will allow you to really stack some high-priced bats and his opponent Jeffrey Springs ($6,300) is also a solid play for the price but has a slightly tougher matchup.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn