MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 7/13/22
9 games on tap today and we shouldn’t have any rain concerns.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
CHW/CLE has some light rain at first pitch but should die down quickly after causing no concern and SDP/COL could also have some light rain but the game should get in fine. Wrigley has opposite weather as yesterday with temps in the high 60’s and wind blowing in from left at 12mph while the hottest temps will be with SDP/COL, CIN/NYY, and LAD/STL all see temps in the mid 80s. The dome games today are PHI/TOR, BOS/TBR, and OAK/TEX.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for SDP/COL are +18.6% while total runs for BAL/CHC are -5.5%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Yesterday Trevor Story was hit by a pitch on his hand and Aaron Hicks fouled a ball hard off his leg so both are out today and will likely need a game or two off. Mike Trout left early yesterday with back spasms and is out today and the Phillies will remain without the unvaxed JT Realmuto and Alec Bohm in Toronto. Kris Bryant remains on the paternity list for COL and CJ Cron is still out with wrist soreness and other guys getting days off include Adolis Garcia, Andres Gimenez, and Gavin Sheets.
The Yankees are my favorite stack today at home against the lefty Minor who has allowed 4+ ER in five of his seven starts this year with at least 1 HR allowed in each of those starts. The Padres disappointed yesterday with just three runs but they’re my next favorite stack today against the righty Kuhl and are still a bit underpriced on both sites. The Rangers and White Sox come in as my next favorite stacks both facing mediocre righties and after those four teams I’m really not a fan of any other stacks but you could take a shot on the A’s, Dodgers, and Guardians in GPPs.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m starting with a couple cheap Yankees righties in Gleyber Torres ($3,000) and Josh Donaldson ($3,100) and if you can fit either Judge or Stanton I’d try to get at least one in your main build. The Padres are my next priority and for value I really like the salaries of Nomar Mazara ($2,900), Trent Grisham ($3,000) and Eric Hosmer ($2,900) all with the platoon advantage while Cronenworth and Machado would be my next options to target if you have the salary. This might be the last chance we can still get Josh Smith at $2,600 as he’s gone for over 18 FP in each of his last three games and I will certainly keep using him at that salary. I also like the White Sox today against Civale and my favorite bat for the price is Yoan Moncada ($2,300) who hopefully hits 2nd today and will really help you fit in some other expensive bats. More FD value bats to consider includes Nick Castellanos ($2,700), Jonathan Aranda ($2,200), Ramon Laureano ($2,800), Eloy Jimenez ($3,000), CJ Abrams ($2,500), and Cody Bellinger ($2,600).
Looking at DraftKings I’m expecting almost every cash game / single entry lineup to include both Eric Hosmer ($2,000) and Nomar Mazara ($2,100) as it’s just a complete failure in pricing by DK on these guys in Coors and I’ll also include Trent Grisham ($3,000) & CJ Abrams ($2,000) if you need more salary savings. Giancarlo Stanton ($5,400) is my favorite NYY bat for the price while Donaldson ($4,400) and Torres ($4,800) are still very affordable options. Josh Smith is still way too cheap at $2,900 and is my favorite option at 3B today and at SS I will be pairing him with Corey Seager ($5,100) who has hit an HR in five straight games and has one of the better matchups of the top SS options today. Some other DK bats I like for the price are Jonathan Aranda ($2,000), Yoan Moncada ($3,100), Cody Bellinger ($3,600), Eloy Jimenez ($3,700), Ha-seong Kim ($3,200), and Trey Mancini ($3,100).
We have a lot of great pitching options today but Shane McClanahan is still a tier above everyone for me and is my SP1 on both sites but if you don’t want to pay the $11.5k on FD I really like the prices of Cristian Javier ($9,700) and Luis Severino ($9,300) for cheaper options. On DK Shohei Ohtani is somehow only $9,100 and will be my SP2 with McClanahan but I still really like Javier and Severino who are just a couple hundred more in salary. At under $8k on DK I like taking a shot on Lucas Giolito and Jon Gray if you want to make a lineup with a bunch of expensive bats and for GPPs Zack Wheeler and Joe Musgrove should be really low-owned but both are still high-upside options.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn