MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 7/4/22
Happy 4th of July! We should have plenty of time to party before the main slates tonight, as FanDuel has a 7-gamer starting at 6:10pm EST. DraftKings has a 7-gamer starting at 6:40pm EST, which doesn’t include the SF/ARI game, but instead includes Game 2 of the CLE/DET doubleheader.
This is a daily, weekday MLB article, which can hopefully show you some new tools on RG, as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
STL/ATL will have some isolated pop-up storms so a delay or late is possible but not very likely while MIN/CHW is currently looking safe but but there are some massive storms in the general area that have a chance of popping up over the stadium so we’ll need to monitor this game right up until lock. CLE/DET game 2 will have off and on light rain that gets heavier as the game goes on so hopefully game 1 ends early and they can start this game fast or they just play through rain so as not to have to move it again but either way there’s some risk the later this game goes in to the night.
The best hitting weather games are NYM/CIN, STL/ATL, and MIN/CHW all looking at temps in the 80s-90s with 50-70% humidity. SEA/SDP, TOR/OAK, and COL/LAD will see temps in the 70s and all have 8-10mph wind out to center.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for MIN/CHW are +9.7% while total runs for NYM/CIN are +8.3%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Thairo Estrada landed on the COVID-IL yesterday so looks for Donnie Walton to handle SS today and JP Crawford will be back for SEA after serving his 4-game suspension but Jessie Winker is expected to start serving his 6-game suspension today.
My favorite stack of the day are the Braves at home in excellent hitting weather against the righty Hudson who hasn’t struck out more than 3 batters in each of his last four starts and has allowed 16 ER over that span. The Dodgers are close behind for top stack back at home against the lefty Freeland with Mookie Betts back at the top of the order with a current team total over 5.5. The Mets also have a high team total around 5.3 currently against the flame-thrower Greene who has struggled of late with 13 ER over his last three starts and the righty-heavy Blue Jays should be a strong stack as well with the platoon advantage against Irvin in OAK tonight.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m starting with Marcell Ozuna at just $2,900 coming off a monster 2-HR game and my favorite value on my favorite stack of the day while Ronald Acuna ($4,300), Austin Riley ($3,700), Matt Olson ($3,800), and Dansby Swanson ($3,600) are all great plays so I’d try to fit a couple of them in with Ozuna depending on positional needs. Next I’m locking in Mookie Betts at just $3,600 as that’s the cheapest he’s been since April and he’ll likely be over $4k very soon so take advantage of that price and also for the Dodgers I love the salary of Will Smith ($3,200), Max Muncy ($2,600) and Justin Turner ($2,800) and if you can fit Trea Turner ($4,100) I’d go for the full stack. More value bats I like on FD include Teoscar Hernandez ($3,200), Gavin Sheets ($2,200), Luis Arraez ($2,900), Max Kepler ($2,700), Brandon Nimmo ($2,900), Wilmer Flores ($2,700), and Evan Longoria ($2,900).
Looking at DraftKings I’m starting with Mookie Betts who is completely mispriced at $4,300 and will likely be one of the highest owned players today and Justin Turner ($4,400) is my next favorite LAD bat for the price. Marcell Ozuna is still one of my favorite plays at $4,200 but my favorite ATL bat for the price is Matt Olson at just $4,600 as the other big bats for the Braves are above $5k. Teoscar Hernandez ($4,100) and Lourdes Gurriel ($3,600) are my favorite ways to get some TOR exposure and if Steven Kwan ($3,600), Franmil Reyes ($3,200) and/or Spencer Torkelson ($2,000) are in the game 2 lineups they’re my favorite plays for each team there. Other DK bats to consider are Gavin Sheets ($2,200), Yoan Moncada ($2,400), Alex Kirilloff ($2,700), Miguel Cabrera ($2,500), Riley Greene ($2,500), and Nomar Mazara ($2,000).
On DK I’m all over the combo of Alek Manoah and Julio Urias facing teams with projected totals under 3 currently and both are just too cheap for me to fade in these matchups while Taijuan Walker, Sean Manaea, Kyle Wright and Johnny Cueto make for solid GPP options. On FD we have Carlos Rodon to choose from as well but for the price I’m going with Julio Urias who is under $9.6k and should have plenty of run support with a likely QS and W.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn