MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 8/3/22
Just a 5 game main slate today with one big rain spot to monitor.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
CHC/STL is looking like a pretty risky game to target with slow moving storms moving in during the game likely causing a washout so they may just postpone it early but either way it’s risky for pitchers and bats. MIL/PIT is the hottest game of the slate with temps in the 80s with CHC/STL looking at similar temps in the lower 80s. OAK/LAA and COL/SDP will see temps in the low 70s and LAD/SFG is looking at temps in the low 60s and there are no dome games.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for COL/SDP are +3.5% while total runs for MIL/PIT are +8.1%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
The biggest change is the Padres lineup which will have newly acquired Juan Soto, Josh Bell, and Brandon Drury in it today making them probably the scariest top to bottom lineup in baseball while the also stacked Dodgers lineup won’t see Justin Turner for a bit as he landed on the IL and Joey Gallo won’t debut yet. The Angels traded away Brandon Marsh to PHI so look for Sierra and Moniak to get most of his starts in the OF and the Giants won’t have Darin Ruf as he was traded to the Mets for JD Davis who could be available today or tomorrow.
The Padres are by far my top stack today with their new additions available and their opponent Chad Kuhl has been awful over his last five starts. The Brewers are my next top stack facing a Pirates bullpen game starting with Beede as they have a team total over 5 and their lineup is still a bit underpriced on both sites. LAA and LAD are the only other teams I’d considering stacking in GPPs unless the weather clears up for STL.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel it’s going to be hard to choose only four SD bats as Jurickson Profar, Josh Bell, and Jake Cronenworth are all $3,200 and great value options while Juan Soto ($3,900), Manny Machado ($4,000), and Brandon Drury ($3,600) are the expensive options all with big upside. Even Trent Grisham is in play at just $2,500 coming off a monster doubleheader yesterday with 2 HRs but for now I’m going to prioritize Soto, Bell, and Profar with the platoon advantages against Kuhl. I also want MIL exposure and Rowdy Tellez ($3,400) is my favorite play for the price while Kolten Wong ($3,000) is right behind him as a top option currently on a six game hitting streak and if you have the salary I’d consider Christian Yelich ($3,600) or Willy Adames ($3,700) as well. More value bats to consider includ, Luis Rengifo ($2,400), Jared Walsh ($2,600), David Fletcher ($2,000), Trayce Thompson ($2,300), Gavin Lux ($2,800), and Max Muncy ($2,600).
Looking at DraftKings Juan Soto is just too cheap ($5,400) for this matchup with Kuhl while Profar ($4,300), Bell ($4,800), and Cronenworth ($4,600) are my next favorite options and Trent Grisham ($2,900) is still a solid super cheap bat. Yelich ($4,800), Tellez ($4,900), and Wong ($4,100) are my favorite MIL bats and if the weather clears up significantly for STL I’d consider at least one of Paul DeJong ($3,200) or Albert Pujols ($2,000) for value. Other cheap DK bats I like are Cal Mitchell ($2,000), Jared Walsh ($3,400), David Fletcher ($2,500), Randal Grichuk ($3,800), Trayce Thompson ($3,400), Miguel Vargas ($2,000), and James Outman ($2,000).
Shohei Ohtani has one of the best matchups possible against OAK and is my SP1 on both sites while Blake Snell is way too cheap on DK at $7,900 and will be my SP2 at home against COL. Julio Urias and Freddy Peralta are guys I’d consider for GPPs.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn