MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 8/5/22
Big 13 game slate to end the week with a handful of rain spots to monitor.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
A lot could change as we get closer to lock but for now PIT/BAL is looking like the riskiest game as some sort of rain disruption is fairly likely that does carry some PPD risk or mid-game delay. WSH/PHI & ATL/NYM are the next riskiest with storms around the parks during the game that could cause a delay at some point or worse if the rain hits the stadium for an extended length. HOU/CLE & TBR/DET should be fine as some rain earlier in the day has cleared up.
Again pretty much every outdoor game in the Midwest and East coast will be hot and humid and today’s dome games are LAA/SEA, COL/ARI, CIN/MIL, and CHW/TEX.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for ATL/NYM are +21.2% while total runs for BOS/KCR are +18.7%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Kole Calhoun and Omar Narvaez landed on the IL yesterday so look for newly promoted Bubba Thompson to keep starting in LF and Victor Caratini to handle most of the C duties for MIL while Nelson Cruz remains out with his neck stiffness along with Kyle Tucker with an illness. Ty France will return today from his wrist injury for SEA and Mitch Haniger is getting closer to a return but he and Julio Rodriguez (IL) will remain out today while the Dodgers are getting back Chris Taylor today and he will bat 5th while Muncy will get a breather. Bobby Witt is getting the day off so Michael Massey will take his 2-spot in the order with Dozier and Lopez handing 3B and SS. George Springer and Alejandro Kirk are getting the day off for TOR so Whit Merrifield will bat leadoff while Lourdes Gurriel will hit 3rd and the Twins are giving Buxton a day off as well.
My top stacks today are the Brewers and Yankees while the Rays are my top “cheap stack” especially on FanDuel where their entire projected lineup is under $3.1k and they currently have a team total of 4.7 runs. The Phillies started strong yesterday but their game got rained out after just five innings but they are still a solid stack today if the rain can hold off and the Astros will face a rookie righty in Gaddis who has a 4.07 ERA in the minors this season so I’m expecting them to put up some runs and be a strong stack as well. The White Sox should be low-owned after scoring just 2 runs yesterday but I still like them as a GPP stack against Otto who has allowed 3+ ER in each of his last four starts while the Royals are another GPP stack to consider hitting in great weather against a low strikeout righty.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m starting with Brandon Lowe ($3,000) as my top play as he’s just too cheap at a pretty weak 2B position overall and he’s facing another mediocre righty in great hitting weather. Also for $3k on the Rays is Randy Arozarena who brings HR and SB upside and will be the 2nd bat I’m locking in and if you want more Rays exposure then I’d go with Yandy Diaz ($2,900), JiMan Choi ($2,800), or Luke Raley ($2,200). I definitely want some MIL and NYY exposure and my favorite value from those teams are Andrew McCutchen ($3,100), Kolten Wong ($3,100), Gleyber Torres ($3,100), and Josh Donaldson ($2,700) and if you have the salary for a couple expensive bats I’d go with Rowdy Tellez (3,600), Christian Yelich ($3,700), Anthony Rizzo ($4,000), or Willy Adames ($3,700) in that order of priority and obviously if you can fit Aaron Judge for $5,300 go for it. Other value bats I love on some of my favorite offenses today include Yulieski Gurriel ($2,400), Alex Bregman ($3,000), Nick Castellanos ($2,500), Alec Bohm ($2,800), Eloy Jimenez ($2,700), Yoan Moncada ($2,400), Chris Taylor ($2,600), Michael Massey ($2,000), MJ Melendez ($2,700), and Vinnie Pasquantino ($2,200).
Looking at DraftKings I’m liking Vinnie Pasquantino ($2,200) as a top value play batting cleanup in great hitting weather and Michael Massey is hitting 2nd today with Witt out and is another excellent value play at $2,000 for KC. Lowe and Arozarena are still in play at $4.6k and $4.9k respectively while David Peralta is looking like the best value for TB at just $3,000 along with Luke Raley at an even cheaper $2,100. For MIL and NYY my favorite values are Kolten Wong ($4,200) and Josh Donaldson ($4,100) but I still really like Tellez ($5,100), Yelich ($4,800), and Rizzo ($4,700). For Philly Hoskins, Bohm, Castellanos, and Hall all have excellent salaries if you want to risk the rain holding off and some other value bats to consider are Yulieski Gurriel ($3,300), Jarren Duran ($3,100), Alex Verdugo ($3,000), Hunter Dozier ($2,900),and Alek Thomas ($3,400).
My SP1 on both sites is Dylan Cease as he just brings the best floor/ceiling combo of pitchers going today and on DK I’m going with Corey Kluber as my SP2 for just $8.2k in a great matchup with DET. Valdez, Lauer, Berrios, Bumgarner, and Ray are the other pitchers I like on this slate.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn