MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 8/11/22

We have an early main slate today with 6 games starting at 1:05pm EST and no rain to worry about.

This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

MLB DFS Weather Check

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.

With no rain concerns let’s look at heat and wind starting with STL/COL which will be one of the hottest games of the season with temps in the mid to high 90s and just a slight breeze blowing from right to left. MIA/PHI and CHW/KCR will see temps in the high 80s with slight breezes blowing in while CLE/DET will see 10mph winds blowing out to center with temps in the high 70s and today’s dome games are TEX/HOU and PIT/ARI.

Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for CLE/DET are +21.4% while total runs for CLE/DET are +14.2%.

MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks

Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.

With Tim Anderson out indefinitely Luis Robert will hit leadoff for CHW today and newly promoted Kerry Carpenter will get another start for DET today while Candelario will get a day off and Jon Berti and Brian Anderson are getting very close to a return they remain out for MIA today. Elias Diaz left yesterday’s game early after hurting his hand on a swing and will undergo an MRI today so look for Brian Serven to handle C duties for COL and in other C news JT Realmuto is getting the day off so Garrett Stubbs will catch Gibson. The Royals are giving Bobby Witt the day off so Michael Massey will hit in his 2-hole spot and Josh Naylor is getting the day off for CLE along with Yordan Alvarez for HOU, CJ Cron for COL, Dylan Carlson & Tommy Edman for STL, Kevin Newman for PIT, and Ketel Marte for ARI.

The Cardinals are still in Coors so they remain my top stack while the Rockies get their weakest opponent of the series in Hudson so they are right behind STL for top stack today. Cole Ragans did pretty well in his first career start but I’m expecting worse results in his 2nd career MLB start against HOU so they are my 3rd favorite stack and for GPP stacks I like CLE, CHW, and ARI.

Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.

MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel I’m starting with Lars Nootbaar ($2,700) and Paul DeJong ($3,100) for Coors field value and then I’m looking at Nolan Gorman ($3,400), Tyler ONeill ($3,500), Jose Iglesias ($3,200), Brendan Rodgers ($3,500), and Ryan McMahon ($3,400) for mid-range plays and if I have the salary available I will try to fit in Nolan Arenado ($4,400) while Goldschmidt ($4,600) and Blackmon ($3,900) are how I’d rank the other expensive bats if you can fit another. Other value bats I like to help fill in any spots include Aledmys Diaz ($2,500), Yuli Gurriel ($2,400), Steven Kwan ($2,700), Amed Rosario ($2,900), Elehuris Montero ($2,700), Javier Baez ($2,600), Corey Dickerson ($2,800), Yoan Moncada ($2,400), Yasmani Grandal ($2,100), and Eloy Jimenez ($2,900),

Looking at DraftKings I’m again locking in Lars Nootbaar ($2,200) and Paul DeJong ($3,700) as they’re just too cheap for the spot today while Gorman, ONeill, Rodgers, and McMahon are my favorite plays in the $4k-$4.8k range and whoever starts between Yadier Molina ($2,000) and Andrew Knizner ($2,400) will be my C. Yuli Gurriel ($3,200) and Aledmys Diaz ($3,600) are great ways to get cheap exposure to Houston and even though it’s a L/L matchup Kyle Tucker ($4,300) is still in play at that price especially with him hitting 3rd today. More bats I like for the price are Elehuris Montero ($2,700), Alek Thomas ($3,700), Trey Mancini ($3,700), Corey Dickerson ($2,000), Oscar Gonzalez ($3,400), Victor Reyes ($2,100), Harold Castro ($2,400), and Kerry Carpenter ($2,000).

Dylan Cease hasn’t allowed more than 1 ER in any start since May 24th and is the clear SP1 on both sites today and Framber Valdez hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any start since April 19th making him my favorite SP2 on DK while Cabrera, Gibson, and Kelly are my favorite GPP plays.

Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.

MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.

Good luck today!

Image Credit: Imagn

About the Author

  • Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan)

  • Erik Wardenburg, fantasy alias Naapstermaan, has been playing fantasy sports since 2005 and DFS since 2010. He’s made multiple live finals in MLB, NBA, and NFL on a variety of sites and enjoys grinding small/medium stakes every day.

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