MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 9/20/22
Eleven games on today’s main slate and both FD and DK are including game 2 of the ARI/LAD doubleheader.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
SEA/OAK has a chance of rain but it’d be a light, stray shower at best so the game should play fine. SFG/COL is in a similar spot with a chance of light rain but nothing that should cause concern for the game being completed. CLE/CHW could see a late start but should play fine after.
DET/BAL, PIT/NYY, WSH/ATL, SFG/COL, and CLE/CHW will be in the high 70s to low 80s while MIN/KCR will be the hottest game of the game with temps starting in the low 90s. STL/SDP, SEA/OAK, and ARI/LAD will be in the high 60s and today’s dome games are NYM/MIL & LAA/TEX.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for SFG/COL are +11.8% while total runs for ARI/LAD are +18.1%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Julio Rodriguez needed a few days off to rest his back but has a chance to return to the lineup today while Eugenio Suarez has a broken finger and will be out a bit and Cal Raleigh is dealing with a sore left thumb and the Mariners plan to keep him out until Wednesday. Nelson Cruz and Luis Robert are too risky to use in DFS even if they are back in the lineup today as they just can’t stay healthy for an entire game it seems and the Nationals also seem content on giving their younger guys chances at regular starting spots. The Giants got Austin Slater back from the IL yesterday and he should start against the lefty Freeland today and the Yankees are expected to get Harrison Bader off the IL to make his Yankees debut in CF.
SF and COL put up 17 total runs yesterday and even with the Giants going with a bullpen game today the Rockies are still a clear top stack today. The Giants are my favorite stack of the day though while the Braves, Yankees, and Orioles round out my top five stacks.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel the Giants and Rockies are again just way too cheap for a Coors game so I will likely just go with four bats from each team in cash games and call it a day with Dylan Cease or Luis Castillo at SP. Austin Slater ($2,600) and JD Davis ($2,800) are probably at the most risk of being pinch-hit for later in the game when COL brings in a righty RP so I’d prioritize Thairo Estrada ($3,100), David Villar ($2,800), and Wilmer Flores ($2,800) as the top SF bats to target. Ryan McMahon ($3,100) and Charlie Blackmon ($3,000) are my top COL bats for the price and if you can’t fit in CJ Cron ($4,000) I’d go with Yonathan Daza ($3,100) and Randal Grichuk ($2,700). I also like Michael Toglia ($2,600) but not ahead of those other five options unless he hits higher than 7th today.
The Orioles really disappointed yesterday scoring 0 runs but they are in another spot where they should bounce back today against the lefty Wentz and are full of value options with six of the top seven hitters in their lineup under $3,200. The Braves are another team that could put up a crooked number in great hitting weather against the lefty Corbin with great cheap options in Matt Olson ($3,000), Travis d’Arnaud ($2,800) and William Contreras ($3,000) while Acuna, Swanson, and Riley make for an elite stack that I’d at least put in a GPP if not your cash game lineup.
Other value bats I like today include Riley Greene ($2,700), Javier Baez ($2,800), Josh Donaldson ($2,800), Giancarlo Stanton ($3,100), Yoan Moncada ($2,500), Nick Gordon ($2,200), Mitch Haniger ($2,300), Carlos Santana ($2,500), Dylan Moore ($2,300), and Taylor Ward ($2,900).
Looking at DraftKings I’m locking in Yonathan Daza ($3,000) and David Villar ($2,400) as they’re just priced wrong compared to the other bats for SF and COL. Thairo Estrada ($4,300) is my next favorite bat along with Wilmer Flores ($4,700), Ryan McMahon ($4,800), and Charlie Blackmon ($4,900) while Randal Grichuk ($4,100), Michael Toglia ($3,500), Austin Slater ($3,500), Evan Longoria ($3,600), and JD Davis ($3,300) are more fine cheap options.
Austin Hays ($3,300) and Ramon Urias ($3,200) are my favorite BAL bats for the price and I have to mention Oswaldo Cabrera ($2,800) for the Yankees as a top value option of the slate hitting behind five monster bats and getting plenty of RBI chances at a great price. The Braves are priced more as a GPP stack than cash game plays for me especially with how easy it is to fit in so many SF/COL bats.
Some more bats to consider for cheap today are Nick Gordon ($3,000), Jake Cave ($2,300), Vinnie Pasquantino ($2,700), Michael Massey ($2,500), Josh Jung ($2,300), Joey Bart ($2,800), Albert Pujols ($2,800), Gunnar Henderson ($3,900), Ty France ($3,900), Dylan Moore ($3,000), and Carlos Santana ($2,800).
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn