MLB Division Breakdowns Part 5: AL Central

by Bogality Last Updated 2016-04-15 13:16:34

With the MLB season already underway, let’s get right to this. For a quick-and-dirty intro, this article is meant to give DFSers an (hopefully) accurate read on the landscape of the MLB by division in hopes that you can attack the early-season DFS field with some conviction, as this is often the most profitable time with newer players testing the waters of a new sport, or DFS in general.

If you missed the previous division breakdowns, they are linked right below:

Part 1: Intro and NL West
Part 2: NL Central
Part 3: NL East
Part 4: AL West

Hopefully these baseline figures below are burned into your memory by now, but just in case, I got you covered:

Kansas City Royals

Notable Additions
None

Notable Losses
Alex Rios
Ben Zobrist

2015 Team Batting Stats

The defending World Series champs are back with many (virtually all) of the same faces ready to defend their title. I expect much of the same from this team from an offensive standpoint, with perhaps a little more upside if some of their young talent can take another step forward. This is still going to be a team you don’t want to target with your SPs except on the smallest of slates given their league-best K-rate.

From an offensive standpoint, the Royals have a lot of solid options to choose from. Lorenzo Cain made huge strides in 2015 posting career-best numbers across the board. While his overall numbers look great, he had some pretty drastic splits with a .405 wOBA and .232 ISO vs LHP (elite) and .338 wOBA and .139 ISOvs RHP (league average), so keep that in mind before paying a premium for him in your contests. Eric Hosmer is a terrific cash game 1B option because he’s not really bad at anything. He can hit for decent power, has the ability to steal bases, has an elite walk rate, and doesn’t have drastic splits. He will likely be underowned at 1B unless there’s a gas can going against KC because he doesn’t have the tantalizing power that many other 1B options possess and he plays in a big ballpark.

Another player to keep an eye on is Mike Moustakas. While some consider him a disappointment because he was such a highly-praised prospect coming up in the minors, I beg to differ and think he’s finally starting to put things together. In 2015 he notched career highs in just about every counting stat and finally began to have the look of the elite prospect many tabbed him as. And don’t be dissuade to take him against an LHP – Moose had 10 of his 22 HRs last season against LHPs in only 206 ABs. There will likely be better 3B options on a daily basis, but don’t overlook Moose as a low-owned, high-upside option.

The Takeaway

The Royals are not a team you want to target with your SPs due to their league-best K-rate. In my pitching selection – especially on DraftKings – I always look for guys who can rack up Ks, so I will very rarely be taking anyone against the Royals with the exception of a few small slates with limited options. As far as their offense goes, they kind of feel like a rich man’s Oakland A’s in that their players often go low owned except when they’re in really good matchups, and their salaries are generally very affordable. I kind of prefer to use them as one-offs or mini-stacks because they lack that raw power I look for in GPPs as evident by their 17th-or-worse ISO, but this is still a very good hitting team that you can take anyone from with confidence.

Minnesota Twins

Notable Additions
Byung-ho Park

Notable Losses
None

2015 Team Batting Stats

Much like the Royals, the Twins didn’t part ways with many notable players. While they were a pretty bad team in terms of overall numbers, they were fairly decent against LHPs and have above-average power given their 12th-overall ISO rating. Brian Dozier will be a chalky 2B selection when the Twins are facing an LHP, but last season he actually had a better HR/FB% against RHPs while carrying relatively neutral splits in other categories, so don’t write him off in same-handedness matchups.

The guy that everyone is excited about is the Twins’ Korean signing, Byung-ho Park. While translating success from professional baseball overseas to the MLB, an eye test on Byung-ho’s batting approach will give you some lofty hopes. He’s going to strike out a lot, but he seems to have a keen ability to square up the ball no matter where it’s thrown, and he has a ton of power to all fields. This guy hit 50+ home runs in back-to-back seasons in the KBO, and if you are a bat-flip connoisseur, I highly recommend checking out some of his highlights.

I might be in the minority here, but I’m really liking the Twins this season for DFS. I’m not expecting to see them dominating the spectrum of offensive categories like Toronto, but this is a team that we could see make a big leap this year. Miguel Sano came into the bigs last season and absolutely mashed with a .392 wOBA and .262 ISO in 335 ABs, both numbers are of the elite variety. He’s a bit polarizing because he had a truly massive 35% K-rate, but he also had a 15.8% walk rate, so it’s not like he was up there hacking at everything. I’m very bullish on Sano this season, and think he could fly under the radar for a bit with everyone riding the uber-elite 3Bs like Donaldson, Machado, and Arenado.

The Takeaway

The Twins look like a team that could possibly be a target for our SPs, but I think they take a big enough step forward that they are going to be too dangerous of a team to seek out pitchers against them. I’ll stacking the Twins quite a bit early on in the season before people realize the upside this team possesses.

Chicago White Sox

Notable Additions
Austin Jackson
Jimmy Rollins
Todd Frazier
Brett Lawrie

Notable Losses
Alexei Ramirez

2015 Team Batting Stats

The White Sox were not a good baseball team in 2015. Other than K-rate, they didn’t have an offensive stat where they were not bottom six in the MLB. They made some big moves in the offseason acquiring the services of Todd Frazier, Austin Jackson, and Brett Lawrie, but I’m not quite sold this team is going to be better than league average by year’s end.

With that being said, there are nevertheless some excellent DFS options in this lineup. While it seemed Jose Abreu didn’t do much last season, it’s hard to fault a guy who hit 30 home runs and drove in 100+ runners in his second big league season. The addition of Frazier is going to be a tremendous help to this team, and with the White Sox’s hitter-friendly home park, Frazier will be an elite play at 3B, especially against LHP, whom he has more success against (.244 ISO vs LHP, .193 ISO vs RHP).

The Takeaway

Given their hitter-friendly ballpark, this is going to be a team worthy of stacking throughout the whole lineup. Unlike last year, I don’t think this will be a team we want to be targeting with our pitchers right from the get-go with the added potency of Frazier, but it’s definitely not a team that I would avoid taking a pitcher against if it was one of the better matchups the slate offered. Abreu and Frazier, except for when they have an elite matchup, will probably go low owned because of the depth at their respective positions, so they make for intriguing one-offs in GPPs.

Detroit Tigers

Notable Additions
Justin Upton

Notable Losses
Rajai Davis

2015 Team Batting Stats

Per usual, the Tigers were a very potent offense last season, and were the second-best team against left-handed pitching. Without any real losses in the offseason and the addition of Justin Upton, this will again be one of the better offenses in the league. Miguel Cabrera, and J.D. Martinez remain elite options and are in play against just about any handedness of pitcher, as neither have glaring splits on way or the other.

One name that will surely go unnoticed is James McCann. I’m not saying this guy is going to be an elite catcher, but he does make for a high-upside punt option behind the dish against LHPs with a .390 wOBA and .237 ISO against them. You could do a whole lot worse for a bargain-priced catcher. Another name that should fly under the radar for a while is Nick Castellanos. This kid was highly touted prospect that shot through the minor leagues because of his bat. He’s been rather disappointing in his career in the majors, but he’s still learning, and the his second half of 2015 could be a sign that he’s about to break out. His wOBA jumped from .285 to .343, his ISO jumped from .128 to .208, and his wRC+ 76 to 116. While those aren’t elite numbers, they are above league average and could be the “calm before the storm” so to speak, so keep an eye out for him early on.

This is not going to be a team you want to attack with your starting pitchers. They have too much power and don’t strike out at a high enough clip to warrant targeting them like other high-powered, high-strikeout offenses like the Astros or Cubs.

The Takeaway

The Tigers are a team you should look to for bats frequently as they are stacked up top with elite options. Miggy, J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton, and Ian Kinsler (to a lesser extent) are terrific options on any given day. Look to McCann as a cheap low-owned, high-upside catcher against LHPs, and if you are a believe that Castellanos has adjusted to the big leagues, fire him up without hesitation. Don’t target this team with SPs unless you’re playing some dreadful four-game slate with no limited options.

Cleveland Indians

Notable Additions
Mike Napoli
Marlon Byrd
Rajai Davis

Notable Losses
Brandon Moss
Nick Swisher
Ryan Raburn
David Murphy

2015 Team Batting Stats

Going through this team just gives me a “meh” feeling about them, but I remember they were an intriguing team to stack least season. Michael Brantley being on the DL hurts this lineup quite a bit, but they still have some solid options in Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, and Carlos Santana, but they just don’t excite me from a DFS perspective because their hitters aren’t particularly elite at anything.

At the same time, this isn’t a team that I’m particularly excited about targeting pitchers against because of their low strikeout totals. I do expect their K-rate to increase a bit with the addition of Mike Napoli and his 26% career strikeout rate, but that’s not enough to bring them into contention for a high K-rate. But – and I know this sounds a bit wishy-washy – I wouldn’t necessarily be afraid to take a SP against them due to their middling power if the slate dictated it.

The Takeaway

Meh, about sums up the Cleveland Indians for me. While I think they have a top three starting pitching rotation and are a much better real-life MLB team, they don’t excite me for DFS. They’re not potent enough to recommend stacking other than when a gas can is on the hill, but they are not bad enough and don’t strike out enough to target pitchers against them. They have some decent options, but you’re never going to wake up and say, “Damn, I can’t wait to roster Jason Kipnis today!” I know it’s a weak take, but there you have it; the Cleveland Indians.