MLB Division Breakdowns Part 4: AL West

by Bogality Last Updated 2016-04-02 20:05:13

With the NL all wrapped up, let’s hop over to the land of the designated hitter, the American League. If you haven’t been following since Part I, the purpose of this series is to give us all an accurate read on each MLB team so we know how to attack the field in the early goings of the MLB DFS season because, after all, the early-season action can be the most profitable if you go in with more knowledge than the general DFS population.

Here are the previous installments of the National League:

Part 1: Intro and NL West
Part 2: NL Central
Part 3: NL East

Listed below is a table with important MLB stats that I will be referring to in this article, and I highly encourage you to memorize these figures. They will be your roadmap for identifying players that should regress positively or negatively as the season goes on.

Houston Astros

Notable Additions
Carlos Gomez (I’m aware this was at the end of last season)

Notable Losses
Hank Conger
Chris Carter
Jed Lowrie

2015 Team Batting Stats

The Astros kinda feel like Cubs-lite of the AL to me this year. This is a scary roster to traverse with an SP, but as you can see, there are plenty of strikeouts to be had here – especially for an RHP with their whopping 23.6% K-rate, good for second-most in the MLB. If you live in Houston, that’s not global warming that your experiencing, it’s actually the departure of Chris Carter and his astronomical 32.8% whiff rate. Even without Carter, I still expect this team to contend for a top five K-rate in the MLB. This puts the Astros in a unique tier with the Cubs where taking a SP against them with a good K/IP can be a good contrarian pick (particularly on DraftKings) given the strikeout upside. Yet at the same time, this is a team that we can stack liberally because they have fantastic power numbers and play in a hitter-friendly home ballpark.

Jose Altuve will be the chalk play at second base when the Astros face an LHP with his elite .413 wOBA against them. Against RHPs he’s still a viable option because of his speed, but he’s always a guy I choose to fade against RHPs, even when stacking, because his wOBA plummets to league average .319. The one name that I was surprised to see towards the top of their roster against LHPs was Colby Rasmus rocking a .365 wOBA and a .215 ISO against them in 140 plate appearances. Not world-beating numbers, but I never gave him a look when the ‘Stros were against an LHP because Rasmus always struck me as a guy who couldn’t hit pitchers of his same handedness.

Another interesting tidbit I noticed was how much George Springer’s power totally dried up against RHPs. .405 wOBA and a .267 ISO (both elite numbers) go down to .336 and .154 (both league average), so keep that in mind when stacking this team. I feel compelled to mention his name even though he’s obvious, but Carlos Correa is really good at baseball and will likely be the most expensive shortstop on every slate all year, so play him if you have the salary.

The Takeaway

This is a very potent lineup that can be stacked liberally, but pay extra attention to the splits on some of these guys. In addition to the names mentioned above, Luis Valbuena and Preston Tucker can be thoroughly avoided against LHPs, but make fantastic plays – given their price tags – against RHPs. This is definitely a dangerous team to target with an SP, but there is enough strikeout upside for a pitcher with a solid K-rate (and preferably an RHP) to make for a great contrarian pick on sites that favor strikeouts.

Los Angeles Angels

Notable Additions
Andrelton Simmons
Yunel Escobar
Daniel Nava

Notable Losses
Erick Aybar
David Freese
Matt Joyce

2015 Team Batting Stats

For a team that has the best player in baseball, those are some uninspiring numbers and I am not shocked. As a resident of Los Angeles, it’s pretty frustrating to see some of the moves this franchise has made in the recent years, especially when you have a once-in-a-generation talent like Mike Trout on your roster. This season’s offseason moves are nothing to be stoked about, either. Andrelton Simmons is probably the best defensive shortstop in the league, but this is DFS and there are no points for webgems.

Despite their yawn-inducing offseason moves, I think this will be a bit better team in 2016. The proverbial “leadoff hitter” for the Angels had an OBP of .280 last season, which is truly abysmal. The one thing Yunel Escobar does well is make contact, as evident by his career 11% K-rate, and I expect Kole Calhoun to rebound after a down season, which should create more RBI opportunities for Trout and Albert Pujols. Be careful with Pujols and guys of his oft-injured kind, though. While I don’t have any all-encompassing numbers to back it up, these older guys tend to take about a month to get back into the groove, have a few great months that make you think they’ve found the fountain of youth, then slowly fade as the season goes on. Take em when they’re hot and healthy.

The Takeaway

Well, this was a quick one. Outside of their top four hitters and the occasional C.J. Cron 1B punt, it’s tough to be excited about any of these guys. Andrelton could be a good value play if he starts hitting higher in the order, but outside of a contrarian bottom-half stack, it’s best to stick the staples; Trout, Pujols, Escobar, Calhoun. Despite the rest of this lineup’s offensive struggles, they don’t particularly strike out enough to warrant going out of your way to target them. However, this is definitely not a team you should fear either, and it will probably be a slate-specific decision most of the time.

Seattle Mariners

Notable Additions
Nori Aoki
Leonys Martin
Adam Lind

Notable Losses
Mark Trumbo
Logan Morrison
Brad Miller

2015 Team Batting Stats

2015 Team Batting Stats

Seattle was a fun team to stack last season. For a decent portion of the year people tended to write them off, but this is a team with some serious power, as evident by their 8th or better ISO ranking vs each type of pitcher. Everyone knows that Nelson Cruz is basically Babe Ruth when he’s facing a LHP with his absurd .459 wOBA, 202 wRC+ and .315 ISO. Another name that cropped up for Seattle later on in the season was Franklin Gutierrez, who had a .411 wOBA, 168 wRC+ and a .298 ISO (all numbers of an elite-caliber player) and his salary would have qualified for a bargain bin selection for much of the season.

Nori Aoki is going to be a nice leadoff hitter for this ball club with his on-base skills and microscopic 7% career K-rate. For these reasons, I think he has cash game value in spades as long as his price doesn’t creep up too high and he is hitting atop the order, which I highly expect he will be. That being said, he won’t make a lot of my GPP rosters because he doesn’t have the elite speed necessary to make up for what he lacks in power. Leonys Martin is another name that you need to pay attention to in the beginning of the year. He was once a top prospect in the Rangers’ system, but struggled to get playing time and never really delivered consistent results when he was given the opportunity. This is obviously a negative park shift for him, but he does possess that rare power/speed combo, and he will likely carry a bargain-level price tag on the outset of the season.

The Takeaway

The Mariners have all the makings of a potent offense again this year and they can be stacked, mini-stacked, or just played as one-offs. I don’t expect them to strike out nearly as much with the departure of Trumbo and them sending Zunino and his ridiculous 34% K-rate down to the minors, so this won’t be a team you want to target with your SPs.

Oakland Athletics

Notable Additions
Chris Coghlan
Khris Davis
Jed Lowrie
Yonder Alonso
Danny Valencia

Notable Losses
Brett Lawrie

2015 Team Batting Stats

The A’s are always an interesting team for DFS purposes. Their overall numbers look pretty bad, but this is a sneaky team for stacking purposes. They always go underowned unless they’re facing a bottom-tier pitcher, but these guys – at least last year – were all priced incredibly cheap. A three to five-player stack of the A’s allowed you the savings to slot in several elite options at your other spots, giving you a lineup that offered tremendous upside. This isn’t a recommendation to stack them every time out, but they are worthy of consideration due to their often low-owned nature and cheap price tags on most nights.

Yonder Alonso is someone you should be paying attention to. He was the top prospect in the Reds’ system for a while before being shipped to San Diego in the Mat Latos trade several years back. Injuries and platooning have limited his at bats, but this is a hitter with no negative splits who has a good eye at the plate (.360 career OBP) and some power – think of him like a very poor man’s Joey Votto. Many people have Marcus Semien tabbed as a breakout candidate with 20/20 potential, and he will be worthy of daily consideration at a shallow SS position, but I would reserve taking him only against LHPs, as he has some glaring splits (.377 wOBA vs LHP, .286 vs RHP). The same thing can also be said for Danny Valencia (.373 wOBA vs LHP, .290 vs RHP).

The Takeaway

The A’s are not a team you will want to target with your SPs. Their incredibly low K-rate (second lowest in the MLB last season) should carry over to this season, limiting the strikeout upside of taking a pitcher against them. Pay attention to all the player splits, as many of these guys (Semien, Valencia, Reddick) have drastic splits, but they are very much stack-worthy due to their frequent low ownership and cheap salaries.

Texas Rangers

Notable Additions
Ian Desmond
Justin Ruggiano

Notable Losses
Mike Napoli
Leonys Martin

2015 Team Batting Stats

The Rangers will be a very similar team this season, as they didn’t make a many offseason moves. They are an extremely dangerous team when playing at home, but similar to the Rockies (although not as drastic), they are worse than league average in all categories on the road. .301 wOBA (18th), 89 wRC+ (17th), .144 ISO (19th), so plan accordingly. The addition of Ian Desmond should increase the K-rate of this ballclub, as he brings in a 29% strikeout rate from the previous season. Desmond is a bit intriguing because playing SS anymore, but he still maintains that eligibility. Similar to how we got to play Evan Gattis for a while at catcher even though he was DHing, his presents a nice spot for us to capitalize on a player playing a less physically-demanding position, in addition one of the best hitters parks in the MLB being his new home.

Prince Fielder skill set seems to be evaporating fast. While he had a decent overall year last season with 23 home runs and 98 RBIs, his season was a tale of two halves. His wOBA dropped from .392 to .323, his wRC+ from 145 to 98, his ISO from .182 to .130, and his hard hit percentage fell from 36.7% to 26.5%. That could be an injury he was dealing with, but personally I think he’s falling in the same boat as an elder-statesmen like Albert Pujols as I mentioned above: slow start while they adjust to the MLB season, a few hot months in May and June that make us think “they’re back,” and then a sharp decline as the year plays out.

This is a team with some nice pieces to choose from, though. Rougned Odor is looking like a very promising young player. He started out slow and ended up being sent back down to the minors, but once he came back he hit for a .350 wOBA (solid), .246 ISO (elite), and his hard hit percentage shot up by 11%, which would put him up among the best at 2b.

The Takeaway

This is a solid offensive team that you need to give strong consideration to taking when they are at home. It’s not quite the Coors spike in production, but the Rangers’ home field is among the most hitter-friendly environments in all of baseball, especially in the hotter months. An interesting GPP strategy I often like to deploy is when there is a game in Coors field, fade it (unless you truly feel the pitchers in that game are going to get shelled) and stack the heck out of the next best hitting environment, and typically that will be Rangers’ home games. I wouldn’t be thrilled at the idea of taking a SP against the Rangers, unless it was an elite LHP like a Chris Sale and the Rangers were on the road.