MLB Division Breakdowns Part 3: NL East

by Bogality Last Updated 2016-04-03 01:53:03

Welcome to Part 3 (of six) of MLB Division Breakdowns. If you missed the two previous installments of this series, which I have linked below, the point of these articles is to get an (hopefully) accurate read on each MLB team before there’s enough sample size for the general DFS population to pull information from, which in return should help our profitability greatly because, as I’m sure many of you have realized, early-season DFS tends to have a bit softer competition.

Previous Breakdowns

Part 1: Intro and NL West
Part 2: NL Central

I hope you have become familiar with some of the major advanced statistics baselines that I will be referencing here quite often, not just for the sake of this article, but so as the season progresses you can identify unsustainable production, elite/bad matchups, and players who will begin to experience positive or negative regression in your continued research. Here is a legend to help you with the baselines:

Let’s take a look at the teams in the NL East.

Washington Nationals

Notable Additions
Stephen Drew
Daniel Murphy
Ben Revere

Notable Losses
Yunel Escobar
Ian Desmond
Denard Span

2015 Team Batting Stats

Perhaps more than any other team in the 2015 season, the Nationals really felt the pain of injuries to their better offensive players. Denard Span (275 plate appearances), Ryan Zimmerman (390 plate appearances), Anthony Rendon (355 plate appearances), and Jayson Werth (375 plate appearances) all missed significant time due to injuries. They might as well have been called the Washington Bryce Harpers. No? My bad. Anyways, given what a letdown their 2015 season was, I expect Washington to be fired up coming out of the gates to show everyone they belong in the postseason.

You don’t need me or anyone to tell you that Bryce Harper is good at baseball and if you have the salary to afford him, he makes for a tremendous play. One small tidbit I noticed last year was his minuscule ownership percentage when facing a LHP. Being a lefty hitter, people automatically assume he can’t hit pitchers of the same-handedness, however, he managed a .421 wOBA, .234 ISO, and a .986 OPS against them in 2015; each of those numbers being of the elite variety when looking at the league averages legend above. While his HR/FB% was much lower against LHP (15.9%), that is still an elite percentage for a hitter, so don’t be scared off him just because a lefty is on the hill.

I really like the addition of Daniel Murphy and Ben Revere to this roster to give this team a boost against RHPs, as that was their big weakness last season. I wish he would learn how to take a walk because much of his value is in stolen bases, but if Revere is hitting at the top of the lineup and maintains his great contact skills, he could challenge for 100 runs and 40+ bags. Provided he is healthy, Ryan Zimmerman carries elite numbers vs LHPs and will probably fly under the radar for the beginning of the season at a stacked 1B position.

The Takeaway

Bryce Harper is elite and you should play him whenever you can. Aside from Harper, this is still a deep roster top to bottom and can be stacked liberally. It might take some of the older guys like Zimmerman and Werth a while to get going early in the season, but as long as they are healthy, they carry some good upside vs LHPs. Unlike the Cubs in Part 2, I don’t expect the Nationals to strike out enough to feel there is enough upside targeting them with SPs, but if injuries cause them to have to play guys like Michael Taylor (30.9% K-rate) and Danny Espinosa (25.7% K-rate), the SP going against them might be a good contrarian pick with the added K-upside.

New York Mets

Notable Additions
Neil Walker
Asdrubal Cabrera
Alejandro de Aza

Notable Losses
Daniel Murphy

2015 Team Batting Stats

The Mets were one of the better stories in baseball last year. To save me some time making the legends, I’ll just say that they were one of the worst teams in baseball in the first half, ranking 25th or worst in each of the metrics above. However, in the second half they were 6th or better in each of the metrics above, a truly remarkable feat to say the least, and they did this with a below-average team BABIP of .297, which was good for 19th in the MLB.

This is going to be fun team to watch. I’m absolutely geeked about the young pitching they have with Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz and Matt Harvey. It would have been even better if Wheeler didn’t go down with Tommy John last year. I’m not completely sold on their offense as a whole this season. David Wright is a shadow of his former self, and Duda, Walker, Granderson and Conforto are not palatable against LHPs. I do, however, think they will be a force against RHPs and will be popular to stack against them.

The Takeaway

I expect the Mets to fall somewhere in between their first and second half stats overall, probably leaning more towards their better half. Against RHPs, stack away; against LHPs, I wouldn’t roster a single player except Cespedes and maybe Wright, and that’s if he shows me he still has something left in the tank. This should also be a team we can target with our LHPs because I expect them to again come close to their second-highest K-rate against them this season.

Philadelphia Phillies

Notable Additions
Peter Bourjos
J.P. Arencibia

I know, “notable” is a stretch here.

Notable Losses
Ben Revere

2015 Team Batting Stats

Woof. That is absolute hot garbage. It’s also safe to assume the Phillies will show us more of the same garbage again in 2016, and perhaps more Ks due to the addition of all-world hacker Peter Bourjos. I’ll keep this one quick because there isn’t much to see here. Maikel Franco is a great young hitter and will be a viable play at 3B. Darin Ruf will be a fun low-priced punt against LHPs because he has some pop, but that’s about all their is on this roster.

This is an obvious team to target with SPs of all kind. However, I will say this: if you are a multi-entry guy and you go all-out (75%+ exposure) on a SP against the Phillies on all your rosters, be sure you throw one Phillies stack in a tournament, preferably single entry, as you will likely be the only one with that lineup. Honestly, this can be said for any SP of yours that you are super heavy on. Do yourself a favor and throw a stack against your heaviest-owned SP(s) into a single entry. It’s obviously not going to be a nightly success strategy, and if it is you should rethink your SP selection process, but once in a while a crappy team will pop and touch up even the best of SPs for a GPP-winning performance.

The Takeaway

SPs going against the Phillies are always going to be in play, and for good reason. If you use my hedging strategy above, stick to the guys on this roster that have pop and/or speed: Maikel Franco, Ryan Howard, Darin Ruf, Caesar Hernandez, and Odubel Herrera. If you’re using a one-off player, I’d only consider Franco, Ruf against LHP, or a punt middle infielder like Caesar.

Miami Marlins

Notable Additions
Chris Johnson

Notable Losses
None

2015 Team Batting Stats

Yeah, the Marlins will be a prime team to target with our SPs in 2016, especially with RHPs. While this was not a team to fear, it should be noted that they are considerably better against LHPs, as evident by their 11th-ranked wOBA and 13th-ranked wRC+. Giancarlo Stanton vs a non-elite LHP will be the chalk play whenever the matchup allows. The Marlins actually make for an interesting low-owned stack against lesser LHPs. Adeiny Hechavaria (.396 wOBA, .912 OPS, .148 ISO), and Marcell Ozuna (.384 wOBA, .888 OPS, .153 ISO) make for a cheap stack with considerable upside at low ownership (unless playing in Coors, in which case they will be extremely high owned).

More often than not I tend to punt at middle infield with a cheap guy in a splits advantage with some pop, unless one of the elite power guys like Carlos Correa or Brian Dozier are in juicy matchups, so I will rarely spend up on a speedster like Dee Gordon. However, you should be aware of the opposing starting pitcher’s ability to hold runners on base. There are a few notorious names like Tyson Ross and Jon Lester who are incapable of holding guys on, allowing guys of Gordon’s ilk to potentially have a multi-steal game. In those instances you should give extra consideration to guys who rely on speed. An interesting punt play at the catcher position will be J.T. Realmuto. Once he was given regular at-bats last season, he showed good pop and actually managed to steal eight bags along the way (all against RHPs).

The Takeaway

This will be a team we want to target with our SPs, although primarily our RHPs. I wouldn’t immediately write off taking an LHP against them, but it would give me a little pause. The Marlins, particularly away from home, are a sneaky stack against LHPs. Stanton carries godly numbers, and Hech and Ozuna will go overlooked, despite their upside. Especially Hechavarria at a shallow SS position.

Atlanta Braves

Notable Additons
Erick Aybar
Ender Inciarte
Nick Swisher

Notable Losses
Andrelton Simmons

2015 Team Batting Stats

Those are some incredibly low power numbers from the Braves, and it makes sense because the only bat in their lineup that you really fear is Freddie Freeman. One important thing to note is the incredibly low strikeout rate for the Braves. When I see something like this, it’s always good to question whether or not your should pay a premium on a stud SP in these matchups because they might not get as many Ks as normal. On FanDuel, given the importance of the win for SPs, I don’t think you should worry too much about your pitcher missing out on a few Ks. On DraftKings, strikeouts are vital to a SPs value, and I would likely consider another arm in a more strikeout-friendly environment.

As far as the actual bats for Atlanta go, we’re looking at minimal options. Freeman is a rock-solid cash game target, much like Joey Votto with his ability to hit for power and draw walks. I also like the addition of Ender Inciarte, whom I assume will be hitting at the top of the order. Another guy who is somewhat intriguing is Adonis Garcia. He showed some serious pop with 10 home runs in 200 at-bats. That’s obviously a small sample size, but I’d be willing to take a shot on him in some GPP lineups against LHPs (he hit considerably better against them than RHPs) as a salary-relief option. Outside of those guys, Atlanta is filled with a bunch of low-upside, powerless bats, and can be avoided unless they are playing in Coors, or they are facing a bottom-of-the-barrel SP who you expect to get shelled.

The Takeaway

Atlanta will be a team that you can safely take an SP against and expect a decent outing. They don’t strike out enough for the SP choice to be a slam dunk, but they aren’t an intimidating bunch outside of Freeman and Inciarte. Keep an eye out for Adonis Garcia against LHPs as a cheap option at 3B with some home run potential. And outside from a full-team stack if you have some sort of gut feeling, I have no issue staying away from the rest of the Braves’ hitters.