MLB Division Breakdowns Part 2: NL Central

by Bogality Last Updated 2016-04-04 09:36:18

Welcome to Part 2 (of six) of MLB Division Breakdowns. If you missed the first part of this series (which is linked below), the point of these articles is to get an (hopefully) accurate read on each MLB team before there’s enough sample size for the general DFS population to pull information from, which in return should help our profitability greatly because, as I’m sure many of you have realized, early-season DFS tends to have a bit softer competition.

Previous Breakdowns

Part 1: Intro and NL West

As I mentioned in Part 1, one of the best things you can do to start the season is to familiarize yourself with league averages of MLB stats so you can identify unsustainable production, elite/bad matchups, and players who will begin to experience positive or negative regression moving forward. Here are some of the more important ones:

And again, if you’re new to MLB DFS, it carries incredibly more variance than any of the other major DFS sports, so don’t give up on your process without giving it a fair shake. Baseball is a game of failure after all, because a hitter who fails 70% of the time at the plate is – at the very least – an All-Star candidate.

With that, let’s jump into the analysis.

St. Louis Cardinals

Notable Additions
Jedd Gyorko

Notable Losses
Peter Bourjos
Jon Jay
Jason Heyward
Mark Reynolds

2015 Team Batting Stats

For a team that’s a perennial playoff contender, that’s a pretty weak line, especially vs LHPs. I don’t expect this to be same in 2016 because the Cardinals were bit by the injury bug and were playing mix-and-match all season long at OF and 1B with suspect bats like Jon Jay, Peter Bourjos, and Xavier Scruggs attempting to fill the void of missing Matt Holliday and Matt Adams for significant time. This was somewhat of a blessing in disguise because the Cardinals flexed a bit of their farm system strength with sluggers in Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty. Grichuk showed some serious power potential with a .372 wOBA, .272 ISO, and a 137 wRC+ in 350 plate appearances. I doubt his ability to hit .275 again because of his 31.4% K-rate, but the power upside is very real with this kid. Piscotty, in a much smaller sample size, showed his upside with a .364 wOBA, 133 wRC+, and .189 ISO. While he doesn’t quite boast the raw power as Grichuk, Piscotty should be a safer option with his ability to hit to all fields.

The loss of Heyward easily hurts more than the other offseason losses, but this should be a much more well-rounded team in 2016 with the presence of other veteran players like Matt Holliday, Matt Carpenter, Brandon Moss, and Jhonny Peralta. Last season was his first time receiving a full-season’s worth of at bats, but Kolten Wong is also looking like he could possess top-10 offensive numbers for second basemen.

The Takeaway

I expect the Cardinals to take a step forward offensively in the 2016 season. Losing a player like Heyward is never a good thing, but they also got rid of hackers like Borjous and Reynolds. I will certainly not be targeting the Cardinals with my SPs unless a serious value arm is facing them or there’s an elite pitcher going against them on a short slate, but there still might be some Ks to be had from this roster with the two young bats in Grichuk and Piscotty, as well as Brandon Moss, but I’ll be taking a wait-and-see approach here.

As far as the bats go, you got a lot of solid but unsexy cash game options here. Carpenter is as safe of a pick as there is, Jhonny Peralta is one of the more offensively-minded shortstops in the league, Kolten Wong will always be in play because second base is the weakest position other than SS to get offensive output from, and Yadier Molina – although he showed some signs of a declining bat last season – is always a viable play at catcher because he never strikes out. Grichuk and Piscotty will guys I look to more in tournaments early on in the season as low-owned, high-upside picks.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Notable Additions
John Jaso

Notable Losses
Pedro Alvarez
Neil Walker

2015 Team Batting Stats

The Pirates felt like a much better team last year than these numbers indicate. I recall playing the Pirates much more often than these numbers would justify making such selections. However, I do remember the them getting out to a very slow start to the year, so let’s take a look at their first and second half splits.

That certainly explains a bit, as the Pirates were a better team in every category except Ks in the second half. While I expect this team to take a step back offensively with the loss of Alvarez and Walker, I think they are closer to their second-half selves than their first-half selves. Outside of Kang, the Pirates’ infield is rather underwhelming. Their outfield, however, is pretty dangerous. Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco are a handful to deal at the plate because each of them possess jack-and-a-bag (home run and a stolen base in the same game, trademarked by Pepsi7) upside, and are solid options, though I’d probably fade Polanco against LHPs.

The Takeaway

It’s hard to get excited about the Pirates in 2016. Losing Alvarez and Walker without replacing them with anyone but depth fodder will definitely take some sock out of your lineup. McCutchen is an elite talent and is always in play, but outside of the three outfielders and Kang, it’s tough to endorse any of these guys. If recently acquired John Jaso still has C eligibility, he will be a viable play with some upside at a shallow position. One thing you will need to be mindful of is that this team is full of streaky guys. I recall in the second half when they got hot and each of their salaries were incredibly high, especially Marte and Cutch, so keep your eyes peeled if you think they might be heating up.

I will have no issue taking SPs against the Pirates. While their outfield is a bit daunting with their pop and speed, this lineup should strike out more than league average, walk below league average, and there are enough mediocre batters in here that you shouldn’t fear them. Just watch out if they start swinging hot bats.

Chicago Cubs

Notable Additions
Jason Heyward
Ben Zobrist

Notable Losses
Chris Coghlan
Starlin Castro

2015 Team Batting Stats

The Cubs are easily the most hyped team for the upcoming season, and for good reason. Top to bottom, this team is arguably the most dangerous in the MLB with the addition of Heyward and Zobrist. One thing that stands out like a sore thumb, however, is the breeze-inducing K-rate against each handedness of pitcher.

This is obviously not for the weak of heart, but a GPP-only strategy I will be deploying right off the bat will be taking some shares of elite SPs against the Cubs. I know, you’re probably thinking “Eric, you’re insane! Do you not see the Cubs’ roster? They are freaking stacked!” And you would be right, it’s definitely not a wise move to take a SP against the Cubs, but this is baseball – a sport with a higher degree of variance on a day-to-day basis – and with the hype the Cubs are getting this preseason, I wouldn’t be surprised if (on a large slate) an ace going against them has sub-5% ownership. I love taking shares of non-chalk elite SPs because they can easily outscore the guy in the better matchup and give you a huge edge over the field, and with the legendary K-rate these Cubs will probably carry over into the 2016 season, it’s even more enticing of a strategy. Again, I stress this as a GPP-only strategy because it will definitely backfire a decent amount of the time because this is an incredibly potent offense we’re dealing with.

The Takeaway

I’m skipping the actual analysis of the Cubs because there isn’t much to say. Stack them a lot, mini-stack them, take a player or two, whatever you want to do. There isn’t really a bad play in this entire roster and everyone knows how good they are. With all the hype this team is getting, everyone and their mothers will have Cub stacks in every GPP and they will be chalkier than a min-priced backup point guard getting starter’s minutes against the Lakers. From a game theory standpoint, I think they are interesting fade candidates in GPPs, especially when we get early news from Kevin Roth about strong gusts of wind blowing to the outfield and their ownership is even higher.

Milwaukee Brewers

Notable Additions
Chris Carter
Jonathan Villar
Aaron Hill

Notable Losses
Carlos Gomez (I know, this happened late last year, but still.)
Khris Davis
Jean Segura
Aramis Ramirez (same as Carlos Gomez)
Adam Lind
Gerardo Parra

2015 Team Batting Stats

This is going to be a quick one. Everybody knows this is going to be a really bad baseball team in 2016. When you part ways with your best player in Carlos Gomez and other solid pieces like Adam Lind and Gerardo Parra, it’s pretty clear you’re in rebuild mode. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the Brewers move some more pieces during the season, either. The one guy here that I think could be a good upside value play if he gets the starting gig is Jonathan Villar at SS. He had a promising debut a few years back with the Astros, but has since struggled to get regular playing time and then Carlos Correa happened.

The Takeaway

This is going to be a team you want to target with your SPs all year long. Chris Carter alone is good for about two Ks per game, and outside of Ryan Braun and Lucroy, nobody scares me on this roster. While this roster doesn’t scare me at all, I think they make for an intriguing sneaky stack in home matchups (Miller Park is very hitter friendly) against below-average pitchers. Braun, Carter, Gennett, Lucroy, Villar and Hill have some pop, and they will assuredly be low owned.

Cincinnati Reds

Notable Additions
None

Notable Losses
Todd Frazier
Marlon Byrd

2015 Team Batting Stats

The Reds are definitely another team in rebuild mode. Already having shipped off Todd Frazier, Aroldis Chapman, and are in the process of moving Jay Bruce, this is going to be a rough year for the Reds. However, there are some interesting pieces to be had throughout this roster still, and they play in one of the best hitter’s parks in all of baseball.

Joey Votto is always one of the best cash game 1B options because of his ability to draw walks. The dude had more walks (143) than strikeouts (135) last year in 695 plate appearances. Billy Hamilton is always an option due to his SB upside, and with how I expect the Reds’ season to go, I think they let Hamilton try and run even more this year. Another name you should keep your eye out for is Devin Mesoraco. He is a former top prospect and showed some real promise when he got called up in 2014, but was sidelined by a hip injury for a vast majority of last season. If he’s healthy, he is worth a look behind the dish due to his power upside and home ballpark.

The Takeaway

The Reds don’t really excite me this year. Aside from Votto, Hamilton, Mesoraco (if healthy), and Cosart (primarily due to SS eligibility), there isn’t much to see here. Despite their middling numbers, the Reds were never really a team I targeted with SPs last season because of their home ballpark, and the fact that they walk at an above-average rate (mostly due to Votto) and don’t strike out all that much. They are going to take a step back as a whole offensively with the loss of Byrd and a stud like Frazier, so they may be a team worth targeting (especially on the road).

That’s it for Part 2. Thanks for reading and stay tuned for the NL East breakdown in Part 3!