MLB GPP vs. H2H Plays: April 11th
In this article I am going to give you my strategies in baseball for building a winning lineup for all game types, including 50/50s/double-ups/head-to-head and GPPs. I will break down each game type and my strategies involved.
50/50 and H2H Plays
When playing 50-50s/double-ups or head-to-head, you want guaranteed points. This is not where you roll the dice on all-or-nothing players. The idea is to simply produce a solid, well balanced team. It may not be explosive, but it doesn’t matter whether you finish in first place or not, you just need to cash.
Starting Pitchers
Yu Darvish – Darvish is one of the best strikeout pitchers in the history of MLB, becoming the fastest pitcher ever to 500 Ks. He has a dream match-up tonight at home against the Astros. He is the closest thing to guaranteed points for cash games and has by the far the highest upside for your GPPs.
Jose Fernandez – What can we say about this kid? He has been practically unhittable so far this year with 0.71 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and 17 Ks in 12.2 IP. Fernandez is only 21 years old and may already be the best pitcher in baseball. I see no downside in buying him tonight.
Madison Bumgarner – Bumgarner is rarely mentioned with the elite pitchers in baseball, but make no mistake, he is elite. When Bumgarner is pitching at home you want to roster him. In 13 home starts last year Bumgarner had a 2.33 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 93 Ks in 89 IP, while allowing opponents to hit a measly .197 off of him. The Rockies are not the same hitting team on the road as they are at home. In 2013 they hit .293 at home, but only .246 on the road.
Other Starting Pitchers I like – Felix Hernandez, Chris Sale, David Price and Johnny Cueto
Catchers
Buster Posey – Any time Posey is facing a LHP you should feel comfortable paying up for him. In his career Buster has a ridiculous .343 BA, .405 OBP and a 1.003 OPS VS lefties.
Yadier Molina – Molina rarely has a bad at-bat, he is one of the most intelligent and consistent hitters I have ever seen. He hits the ball to all fields and has some pop in his bat. He is off to a great start with 3 homers already and is a great cash game play. As a bonus Yaddy has a .579 OBP against Samardzija in 17 career at-bats.
First Base
Freddie Freeman – Freeman is off to a fantastic start (.419 BA) and will face RHP Tanner Roark tonight. Freeman destroyed RHP last year with a .334 BA and a .409 OBP. He is a great safe play for your cash games tonight.
Adrian Gonzlaez – A-Gon is another very consistent hitter and a great play for cash games tonight. In 2013 he did most of his damage against RHP, batting .303 with a .343 OBP and hitting 18/22 homers against them. Tonight he faces RHP Brandon McCarthy in a great hitter’s park (Chase Field) and I expect Gonzalez to rip a couple hits.
I also like Paul Goldschmidt
Second Basemen
Dustin Pedroia – Pedroia is off to a slow start, but I think he has a great match-up tonight VS CC Sabathia. IN 2013 Dustin had a .354 BA, .432 OBP against LHP pitching and hit .318 in Yankee Stadium. Pedroia is too good to struggle for long. I say he breaks out tonight.
Howie Kendrick – Kendrick is a line drive machine and a nice value play if you don’t want to spend on the top 2B tonight. Howie has hits in 5 of his last 6 games and multi-hits in 4 of 6, he has also chipped in 2 SBs during that stretch.
Other Second Baseman I like – Matt Carpenter and Emilio Bonifacio
Shortstop
Hanley Ramirez – Hanley is one of the best pure hitters in MLB, and has the ability to have a huge night any night. Tonight he will face Brandon McCarthy who has really struggled this year and has already allowed 4 homeruns. Ramirez hitting in a hitters park, against a bad pitcher, sounds like a great recipe to me.
Other Shortstops I like – Elvis Andrus and Starlin Castro
Third Basemen
David Wright – The Mets will travel to Los Angeles tonight to face LHP Tyler Skaggs and the Angels. Wright is an elite hitter and crushed LHP last year with a .336 BA, .467 OBP and 1.072 OPS.
Pedro Alvarez – Alvarez is on fire right now, hitting another homerun last night to give him 5 on the season. He will face RHP Wily Peralta tonight in Milwaukee. Peralta is not a bad pitcher, but I like a hot Alvarez against any RHP right now. In 2013 Pedro hit 33 of his 36 homers off RHP.
Outfielders
Shin-Soo Choo – Any time Choo faces a RHP he is in play. The fact he is at home and facing Feldman tonight almost makes him a must play. Choo is off to a great start with a .355 BA and .475 OBP. Look for Choo to get a couple hits and runs scored tonight.
Yasiel Puig – Puig has cooled down after a decent start. This kid is way too talented to stay cold. He faces McCarthy tonight who has been hit hard and is homer prone. I think Puig breaks out tonight.
Alex Rios – Rios is also off to a good start batting .364 with a .405 OBP. The O/U in this game is 8 and that is with Yu Darvish on the mound facing a pathetic Astros offense, so you know Vegas expects these Rangers to score plenty of runs.
Other hitters I like – Mike Trout, Carl Crawford, Adam Jones, and Jason Heyward
Part 2 – GPPs
GPPs are a whole new ball game. You need guys to have huge nights. GPPs are all about upside. All-or-nothing players can become GPP gold, while value players are just as important as your star players.
Starting Pitchers
Tyler Skaggs – There has been a lot of talk about Skaggs’ potential this year, his velocity is back in the mid-90s and he has reverted back to his old delivery that made him a highly touted prospect. He looked good against the Astros in his first start and will now face a Mets team that not only had a long flight from Atlanta last night, but leads the NL in strikeouts.
Other “Boom-Or-Bust” pitchers I like – Rick Porcello and Joe Kelly
Catchers
Matt Wieters – Dustin McGowan was hit pretty hard in his last start against the Yankees and I think the Orioles can do the same tonight. Wieters hits in the heart of a potent lineup and Vegas expect runs (Highest O/U at 9 runs) tonight. Matt is off to a great start, hitting .367 with 2 homers and 6 RBI so far this season. He is capable of a multi-homer game.
J.P. Arencibia & Chris Iannetta – If you plan on punting catcher, both of these players make a solid punt. They are both at home tonight to average pitchers and Las Vegas expects both teams to score tonight. Neither of them is going to hit for average any time soon, however they both have big time power, and I can see them both hitting a bomb tonight.
First Basemen
Chris Davis – Crush Davis is off to a slow start (0 HRs) this season, but I think that changes tonight. Last season Davis hit 40 long balls off of RHP and had a .415 OBP. We all know he is capable of a monster game and it could very well come tonight.
Adam Dunn – If you look up Adam Dunn in the dictionary you see “Boom-Or-Bust” beside his name. He only seems to do three things at the plate – strikeout, walk or hit a massive bomb. Tonight he faces RHP Carlos Carrasco, who is prone to the long ball. Dunn should be in for a good night.
- I also like Matt Adams and Chris Colabello*
Second Basemen
*Aaron Hill * – In GPPs a lot of times people will avoid hitters facing good pitchers. Hyun-Jin Ryu is a very good pitcher, however Hill has mashed against LHP over his career and has a .500 BA with a homer against Ryu in 10 at-bats. Hill will not be highly owned by many tonight, in what is actually a good match-up for him.
Brian Dozier – Dozier will hit leadoff against LHP Bruce Chen tonight. Brian is starting to heat up and has homered in each of his last 2 games. In 2013 Dozier destroyed lefties with a .328 BA and .428 OBP, he has also owned Chen in 9 career at-bats going 5/9 with a double, triple and homer.
Dee Gordon – Gordon is on fire to start the season with a .394 BA and a .432 OBP. When Gordon reaches base he is almost an automatic steal, utilizing his blazing speed. Gordon’s issue was he could not get on base in previous seasons to be productive. He will face RHP Brandon McCarthy and his .343 OBPA (2013) VS LHB tonight. On another note, it is much easier to steal off of a RHP.
Shortstops
Xander Bogaerts – Bogaerts is a 21 year old highly touted rookie with huge upside. Xander hits in the middle of the Red Sox potent lineup and is holding his own with a .415 OBP this season. Tonight he faces CC Sabathia in that band box known as Yankee Stadium. Everyone is hitting CC lately and I think Bogaerts makes for a great value play tonight.
I also like Everth Cabrera
Third Basemen
Pedro Alvarez – Alvarez is on fire right now, hitting another homerun last night to give him 5 on the season. He will face RHP Wily Peralta tonight in Milwaukee. Peralta is not a bad pitcher, but I like a hot Alvarez against any RHP right now. In 2013 Pedro hit 33 of his 36 homers off RHP.
Conor Gillaspie – Gillaspie bats third in the White Sox lineup and will face Carlos Carrasco tonight. He is off to a good start batting .313 with a .343 OBP. In 2013 Carrasco allowed LHB to hit .351 off of him. At this price Gillaspie makes a great value play.
I also like Luis Valbuena
Outfielders
Jose Bautista – Bautista is a great GPP play almost every night. He has as much homerun upside as anyone in MLB. Joey Bats has a .381 career OBP against Tillman with 2 homers in 18 at-bats.
Carlos Gomez – I love Carlos Gomez. He does not get the credit he deserves, despite being one of few power/speed studs in MLB. Gomez has 43 homers and 77 steals in the last two seasons combined. Cargo “light” is off to a superb start and will face LHP Francisco Liriano tonight. Don’t get me wrong, F-Lir is stud pitcher, however Gomez crushes LHP and has hit Liriano very well in his career going 8/16 with a double, triple and 2 homers. Most will likely avoid Carlos due to the match-up and he could pay off huge in GPPs tonight.
Mike Morse – Morse is swinging a hot bat (.400 BA) and has as much power as anyone in baseball. He will face LHP Jorge De La Rosa tonight and has a great chance to go yard.
Corey Hart – Hart missed all of 2013 due to injury and will likely not be on too many rosters tonight. Corey wears his sunglasses at night and crushes LHP. He will face LHP Tommy Milone tonight who gave up 25 homeruns last year in only 156.2 IP. Hart had 30 homeruns in his last healthy season (2012) and has multi-homer upside.
Other Outfielders I like – Kole Calhoun, Nate Schierholtz and Seth Smith