MLB Grind Down: Friday, September 25th Page Three

Cleveland at Kansas City – 8:10 PM EST

Cleveland Kansas City
clevelandmlb Carlos Carrasco kansascitymlb Edinson Volquez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE (-113) 7.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.205 0.582 0.258 0.271 SP vs. Left 0.235 0.707 0.311 0.179
SP vs. Right 0.234 0.628 0.275 0.282 SP vs. Right 0.242 0.663 0.297 0.172
Batter Splits CLE BvP CLE vs R Batter Splits KCR BvP KC vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Carlos Carrasco : FD: $9,400 — DK: $10,300

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 305.2 — SIERA: 2.72 — ERA: 3.15 — K%: 27.7% — BB%: 5.6% — HR/9: 0.7
Last 30 Days: IP: 13.2 — SIERA: 2.68 — ERA: 4.61 — K%: 38.3% — BB%: 11.7% — HR/9: 2.0

Kansas City Royals Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.323 (Rank: 3) — Strikeout Rate: 15.8% (Rank: 1)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.326 (Rank: 14) — Strikeout Rate: 20.0% (Rank: 8)
Pitches per PA: 3.71 (Rank: 30)

Analysis: Carrasco has arguably been the Indians’ ace this season. He comes into tonight’s start in good form, posting a 2.68 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 38.3% over the last month of play. The issue tonight is his matchup. The Royals love to spoil elite pitcher’s outings, as they are ranked third in team wOBA and first in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. With so many other aces taking the mound tonight, Carrasco can safely be avoided in cash games.

Pitcher Rating: 79.8


Edinson Volquez : FD: $8,300 — DK: $7,300

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 379.0 — SIERA: 4.32 — ERA: 3.32 — K%: 17.5% — BB%: 8.6% — HR/9: 0.7
Last 30 Days: IP: 34.1 — SIERA: 4.39 — ERA: 5.50 — K%: 17.1% — BB%: 6.6% — HR/9: 0.8

Cleveland Indians Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.315 (Rank: 16) — Strikeout Rate: 18.5% (Rank: 5)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.350 (Rank: 3) — Strikeout Rate: 17.8% (Rank: 2)
Pitches per PA: 3.89 (Rank: 4)

Analysis: Volquez is one of those pitchers whose numbers don’t jump off the page. Over the last two seasons, he has a 4.32 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17.5%. He is a good, but not great pitcher. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Indians, who are ranked third in team wOBA and second in strikeout rate over the last two weeks.

Pitcher Rating: 51.1

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians draw a mediocre matchup tonight against Edinson Volquez, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 wOBA over the last two seasons. The left-handed hitters in this lineup are in play, but they are secondary options at their respective positions.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

Carlos Santana : FD: $3,200 — DK: $4,100

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 840 — wOBA: 0.339 — ISO: 0.197 — wRC+: 117
Last 30 Days: PA: 112 — wOBA: 0.346 — ISO: 0.097 — wRC+: 121

Jason Kipnis : FD: $2,700 — DK: $4,400

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 753 — wOBA: 0.353 — ISO: 0.135 — wRC+: 127
Last 30 Days: PA: 108 — wOBA: 0.262 — ISO: 0.129 — wRC+: 63


Kansas City

Even though I won’t be using Carlos Carrasco against the Royals, I do not plan on having any exposure to this offense either. Carrasco has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .275 wOBA over the last two seasons. There are better matchups to exploit tonight.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

NONE


Milwaukee at St. Louis – 8:15 PM EST

Milwaukee St. Louis
milwaukeemlb Ariel Pena stlouismlb Carlos Martinez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL (-219) 7
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.217 0.96 0.414 0.094 SP vs. Left 0.266 0.783 0.339 0.184
SP vs. Right 0.186 0.495 0.213 0.283 SP vs. Right 0.236 0.618 0.275 0.281
Batter Splits MIL BvP MIL vs R Batter Splits STL BvP STL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Ariel Pena : FD: $5,900 — DK: $4,400

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 18.0 — SIERA: 4.94 — ERA: 3.50 — K%: 20.5% — BB%: 14.1% — HR/9: 0.5
Last 30 Days: IP: 18.0 — SIERA: 4.94 — ERA: 3.50 — K%: 20.5% — BB%: 14.1% — HR/9: 0.5

St. Louis Cardinals Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.317 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 19.6% (Rank: 12)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.304 (Rank: 21) — Strikeout Rate: 24.1% (Rank: 27)
Pitches per PA: 3.83 (Rank: 15)

Analysis: Pena has fared pretty well in his first few major league starts, posting a 3.50 ERA with a strikeout rate of 20.5%. He is still unproven at the major league level though, and he draws a difficult matchup against the Cardinals, who are ranked 13th in team wOBA and 12th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Pitcher Rating: 43.5


Carlos Martinez : FD: $9,600 — DK: $9,800

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 268.2 — SIERA: 3.44 — ERA: 3.35 — K%: 23.5% — BB%: 8.7% — HR/9: 0.6
Last 30 Days: IP: 37.0 — SIERA: 3.23 — ERA: 3.89 — K%: 25.5% — BB%: 7.6% — HR/9: 0.2

Milwaukee Brewers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.312 (Rank: 18) — Strikeout Rate: 20.7% (Rank: 18)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.291 (Rank: 26) — Strikeout Rate: 25.4% (Rank: 28)
Pitches per PA: 3.74 (Rank: 26)

Analysis: Martinez comes into tonight’s start in good form, posting a 3.23 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25.5% over the last month of play. He draws a favorable matchup against the Brewers, who are ranked 26th in team wOBA and 28th in strikeout rate over the last two weeks of play. Martinez is one of the top pitching options on the board tonight and his price is more than reasonable on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Pitcher Rating: 87.5

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers draw a difficult matchup tonight against Carlos Martinez. They have been one of the worst offenses in baseball over the last few weeks and they have one of the lowest team totals on the board tonight.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

Adam Lind : FD: $3,900 — DK: $3,800

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 708 — wOBA: 0.397 — ISO: 0.202 — wRC+: 153
Last 30 Days: PA: 89 — wOBA: 0.390 — ISO: 0.197 — wRC+: 145

Scooter Gennett : FD: $2,200 — DK: $2,400

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 746 — wOBA: 0.329 — ISO: 0.147 — wRC+: 105
Last 30 Days: PA: 78 — wOBA: 0.272 — ISO: 0.079 — wRC+: 64


St. Louis

The Cardinals draw a favorable matchup against rookie Ariel Pena. It’s hard to trust Pena’s splits because of the small sample size, but given the fact that they are facing an inexperienced pitcher, both left and right-handed hitters are in play here.

Elite Plays:

Jason Heyward : FD: $3,100 — DK: $4,400

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 889 — wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: 0.153 — wRC+: 130
Last 30 Days: PA: 118 — wOBA: 0.339 — ISO: 0.117 — wRC+: 116

Jhonny Peralta : FD: $2,200 — DK: $3,400

Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 921 — wOBA: 0.323 — ISO: 0.143 — wRC+: 106
Last 30 Days: PA: 103 — wOBA: 0.212 — ISO: 0.022 — wRC+: 29

Secondary Plays:

Matt Carpenter : FD: $4,100 — DK: $5,000

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 914 — wOBA: 0.361 — ISO: 0.164 — wRC+: 132
Last 30 Days: PA: 126 — wOBA: 0.404 — ISO: 0.282 — wRC+: 160

Stephen Piscotty : FD: $2,800 — DK: $4,200

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 165 — wOBA: 0.344 — ISO: 0.166 — wRC+: 119
Last 30 Days: PA: 115 — wOBA: 0.344 — ISO: 0.118 — wRC+: 119


San Francisco at Oakland – 10:05 PM EST

San Francisco Oakland
sanfranciscomlb Mike Leake oaklandmlb Sonny Gray
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
OAK (-128) 7
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.279 0.775 0.338 0.144 SP vs. Left 0.214 0.611 0.276 0.211
SP vs. Right 0.229 0.656 0.287 0.197 SP vs. Right 0.231 0.604 0.27 0.193
Batter Splits SFG BvP SF vs R Batter Splits OAK BvP OAK vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Leake : FD: $6,400 — DK: $5,600

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 391.1 — SIERA: 3.77 — ERA: 3.75 — K%: 17.2% — BB%: 5.8% — HR/9: 1.0
Last 30 Days: IP: 34.0 — SIERA: 4.24 — ERA: 5.03 — K%: 14.4% — BB%: 5.8% — HR/9: 1.3

Oakland Athletics Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.308 (Rank: 22) — Strikeout Rate: 18.4% (Rank: 4)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.315 (Rank: 17) — Strikeout Rate: 21.5% (Rank: 16)
Pitches per PA: 3.86 (Rank: 9)

Analysis: After a good start with the Giants, Leake has come back down to Earth. Over the last month of play, he has a 4.24 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 14.4%. He draws a difficult matchup against the A’s, who have the fourth-lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Pitcher Rating: 57.8


Sonny Gray : FD: $10,500 — DK: $9,300

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 421.0 — SIERA: 3.69 — ERA: 2.91 — K%: 20.2% — BB%: 7.7% — HR/9: 0.7
Last 30 Days: IP: 34.2 — SIERA: 5.01 — ERA: 5.97 — K%: 13.6% — BB%: 9.7% — HR/9: 1.6

San Francisco Giants Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 7) — Strikeout Rate: 18.5% (Rank: 5)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.332 (Rank: 10) — Strikeout Rate: 21.7% (Rank: 17)
Pitches per PA: 3.77 (Rank: 23)

Analysis: Gray has been in surprisingly bad form recently, posting a 5.01 SIERA with a low strikeout rate of 13.6% over the last month of play. He should be avoided tonight against the Giants, who are ranked seventh in team wOBA and fifth in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Pitcher Rating: 67.2

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Even though Sonny Gray has struggled in his recent starts, the Giants still have a low team total tonight. The matchup doesn’t appear all that favorable on paper either, as Gray has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 wOBA over the last two seasons.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

Buster Posey : FD: $3,500 — DK: $4,000

Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: 1B/C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 864 — wOBA: 0.370 — ISO: 0.157 — wRC+: 143
Last 30 Days: PA: 99 — wOBA: 0.447 — ISO: 0.179 — wRC+: 195

Angel Pagan : FD: $2,800 — DK: $3,300

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 622 — wOBA: 0.299 — ISO: 0.078 — wRC+: 94
Last 30 Days: PA: 82 — wOBA: 0.368 — ISO: 0.173 — wRC+: 140


Oakland

This game has one of the lowest run totals on the board, so we shouldn’t be heavily targeting hitters from either team. That said, Mike Leake has allowed a .338 wOBA to left-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

Josh Reddick : FD: $2,900 — DK: $4,100

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 690 — wOBA: 0.361 — ISO: 0.212 — wRC+: 135
Last 30 Days: PA: 101 — wOBA: 0.349 — ISO: 0.230 — wRC+: 125

Stephen Vogt : FD: $2,200 — DK: $3,500

Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: 1B/C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 600 — wOBA: 0.354 — ISO: 0.194 — wRC+: 130
Last 30 Days: PA: 42 — wOBA: 0.434 — ISO: 0.256 — wRC+: 184


Seattle at LA Angels – 10:05 PM EST

Seattle LA Angels
seattlemlb Vidal Nuno laangelsmlb Garrett Richards
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAA (0) 0
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.201 0.594 0.266 0.242 SP vs. Left 0.209 0.58 0.26 0.233
SP vs. Right 0.263 0.789 0.342 0.186 SP vs. Right 0.230 0.635 0.284 0.201
Batter Splits SEA BvP SEA vs R Batter Splits LAA BvP ANA vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Vidal Nuno : FD: $6,000 — DK: $5,800

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 235.1 — SIERA: 3.88 — ERA: 4.17 — K%: 19.9% — BB%: 6.8% — HR/9: 1.4
Last 30 Days: IP: 25.0 — SIERA: 4.40 — ERA: 3.60 — K%: 18.4% — BB%: 9.2% — HR/9: 1.4

LA Angels of Anaheim Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.291 (Rank: 27) — Strikeout Rate: 18.8% (Rank: 4)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.290 (Rank: 27) — Strikeout Rate: 20.5% (Rank: 9)
Pitches per PA: 3.79 (Rank: 19)

Analysis: Nuno is an easy pitcher to avoid in DFS. He has a mediocre SIERA with an average strikeout rate. While the Angels may not hit left-handed pitching all that well, they do have the fourth-lowest strikeout rate as a team. Nuno should be avoided in all league formats tonight.

Pitcher Rating: 49.3


Garrett Richards : FD: $8,700 — DK: $9,500

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 357.0 — SIERA: 3.61 — ERA: 3.20 — K%: 21.8% — BB%: 8.0% — HR/9: 0.6
Last 30 Days: IP: 39.1 — SIERA: 3.98 — ERA: 4.58 — K%: 22.2% — BB%: 11.1% — HR/9: 1.1

Seattle Mariners Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.311 (Rank: 19) — Strikeout Rate: 21.9% (Rank: 27)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.355 (Rank: 1) — Strikeout Rate: 23.0% (Rank: 23)
Pitches per PA: 3.89 (Rank: 5)

Analysis: Richards has been inconsistent this season. His form seems to change with each and every start. While that does make him a risky cash game play, it also means that he has the pop that we are looking for in tournaments. He draws a decent matchup tonight against the Mariners and he gets to face them at home in the pitcher-friendly Angels Stadium.

Pitcher Rating: 75.9

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners’ offense has been firing on all cylinders recently, but they draw a difficult matchup tonight against Garrett Richards, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 wOBA. With a low team total, the Mariners are secondary options tonight.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

Robinson Cano : FD: $3,500 — DK: $4,000

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 807 — wOBA: 0.364 — ISO: 0.165 — wRC+: 138
Last 30 Days: PA: 114 — wOBA: 0.393 — ISO: 0.196 — wRC+: 157


LA Angels

The Angels may not hit left-handed pitching well as a team, but they have a few hitters in their lineup that excel against southpaws. The right-handed hitters are in play here, as Vidal Nuno has allowed a .342 wOBA to hitters from that side of the plate over the last two seasons.

Elite Plays:

Mike Trout : FD: $5,000 — DK: $4,400

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 327 — wOBA: 0.406 — ISO: 0.265 — wRC+: 168
Last 30 Days: PA: 115 — wOBA: 0.407 — ISO: 0.304 — wRC+: 167

Secondary Plays:

Albert Pujols : FD: $2,900 — DK: $3,200

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 315 — wOBA: 0.302 — ISO: 0.182 — wRC+: 96
Last 30 Days: PA: 113 — wOBA: 0.247 — ISO: 0.130 — wRC+: 57

C.J. Cron : FD: $2,200 — DK: $2,700

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 209 — wOBA: 0.310 — ISO: 0.169 — wRC+: 102
Last 30 Days: PA: 103 — wOBA: 0.308 — ISO: 0.179 — wRC+: 99


Arizona at San Diego – 10:10 PM EST

Arizona San Diego
arizonamlb Rubby De La Rosa sandiegomlb Casey Kelly
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ARI (-120) 7.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.307 0.904 0.389 0.149 SP vs. Left 0.400 0.8 0.352 0.2
SP vs. Right 0.23 0.67 0.293 0.216 SP vs. Right 0.500 1.167 0.503 0.333
Batter Splits ARI BvP ARI vs R Batter Splits SDP BvP SD vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Rubby De La Rosa : FD: $6,400 — DK: $7,400

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 281.2 — SIERA: 4.14 — ERA: 4.54 — K%: 18.1% — BB%: 7.6% — HR/9: 1.4
Last 30 Days: IP: 23.2 — SIERA: 4.66 — ERA: 6.46 — K%: 17.6% — BB%: 9.3% — HR/9: 2.3

San Diego Padres Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.301 (Rank: 27) — Strikeout Rate: 21.5% (Rank: 25)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.312 (Rank: 20) — Strikeout Rate: 21.1% (Rank: 14)
Pitches per PA: 3.84 (Rank: 13)

Analysis: De La Rosa has not been sharp recently, posting a 4.66 SIERA (6.46 ERA) with a walk rate of 9.3%. He does see a nice ballpark boost tonight play in Petco Park, but that’s not enough to warrant fantasy consideration. There are better pitching options for both cash games and tournaments.

Pitcher Rating: 58.7


Casey Kelly : FD: $5,000 — DK: $5,300

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 2.0 — SIERA: 1.93 — ERA: 4.50 — K%: 27.3% — BB%: 0.0% — HR/9: 0.0
Last 30 Days: IP: 2.0 — SIERA: 1.93 — ERA: 4.50 — K%: 27.3% — BB%: 0.0% — HR/9: 0.0

Arizona Diamondbacks Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.318 (Rank: 11) — Strikeout Rate: 20.8% (Rank: 22)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.349 (Rank: 5) — Strikeout Rate: 22.0% (Rank: 19)
Pitches per PA: 3.72 (Rank: 28)

Analysis: Kelly was once a top prospect, but he has dealt with numerous elbow injuries that have held him back. He hasn’t been particularly impressive in the minor leagues this season, but the Padres are going to give him a couple of starts to see what he can do. I always like to trust Vegas in these situations and with Kelly being an underdog at home, I will be taking a wait and see approach.

Pitcher Rating: 56.2

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks draw an intriguing matchup against Casey Kelly. While they may not have a high team total, they are an interesting stack against the young pitcher that hasn’t been that impressive in the minors.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

David Peralta : FD: $3,300 — DK: $3,900

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 673 — wOBA: 0.382 — ISO: 0.210 — wRC+: 140
Last 30 Days: PA: 99 — wOBA: 0.403 — ISO: 0.149 — wRC+: 153

Jarrod Saltalamacchia : FD: $2,600 — DK: $2,700

Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 504 — wOBA: 0.310 — ISO: 0.166 — wRC+: 95
Last 30 Days: PA: 52 — wOBA: 0.416 — ISO: 0.396 — wRC+: 162


San Diego

The Padres draw a favorable matchup against Rubby De La Rosa, but they don’t have the hitters to take advantage of his splits. Since the start of last season, De La Rosa has allowed a .389 wOBA to left-handed hitters, while holding right-handed bats to a .293 wOBA.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

Cory Spangenberg : FD: $3,100 — DK: $2,700

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 292 — wOBA: 0.303 — ISO: 0.150 — wRC+: 94
Last 30 Days: PA: 82 — wOBA: 0.363 — ISO: 0.194 — wRC+: 135


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious