MLB Grind Down: Monday/Tuesday
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
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Kansas City at Toronto – Monday, 8:07 PM EST
| Kansas City | Toronto | ||||||||
 | Johnny Cueto |  | Marcus Stroman | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TOR (-167) | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.203 | 0.579 | 0.260 | 23.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.224 | 0.618 | 0.276 | 20.20% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.224 | 0.660 | 0.290 | 22.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.264 | 0.623 | 0.278 | 20.40% |
| Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KC vs R | Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Johnny Cueto : FD: $10,500 — DK: $9,500
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 450.2 — SIERA: 3.43 — ERA: 2.82 — K%: 23.0% — BB%: 5.9% — HR/9: 0.9
Last 30 Days: IP: 29.1 — SIERA: 4.55 — ERA: 6.14 — K%: 13.7% — BB%: 6.1% — HR/9: 1.5
Toronto Blue Jays Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.341 (Rank: 1) — Strikeout Rate: 18.7% (Rank: 5)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.367 (Rank: 2) — Strikeout Rate: 19.4% (Rank: 7)
Pitches per PA: 3.86 (Rank: 9)
Analysis: Cueto is coming off of arguably his best start as a member of the Royals and it couldn’t have come at a more opportune time. He struck out eight batters in eight innings of work in a winner-take-all Game 5 against the Astros. While that start has to be promising if you are a Royals fan, I don’t like the matchup that awaits him on Monday night. He has to face a Blue Jays’ offense that was ranked first in team wOBA and fifth in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Not only that, but he has to face them in the Rogers Centre, which is by far the most hitter-friendly ballpark remaining in the playoffs. Cueto has the lowest pitcher rating in this slate of games.
Pitcher Rating: 54.3
Marcus Stroman : FD: $8,300 — DK: $9,900
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 157.2 — SIERA: 3.21 — ERA: 3.31 — K%: 20.3% — BB%: 5.3% — HR/9: 0.5
Last 30 Days: IP: 27.0 — SIERA: 3.29 — ERA: 1.67 — K%: 17.5% — BB%: 5.8% — HR/9: 0.7
Kansas City Royals Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 8) — Strikeout Rate: 16.3% (Rank: 1)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 21.5% (Rank: 18)
Pitches per PA: 3.71 (Rank: 30)
Analysis: Stroman may look like he’s 15 years old, but he doesn’t pitch like it. After stumbling at the start of both of his postseason starts, he recovered nicely and pitched 13 strong innings against the Rangers. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Royals, who were ranked eighth in team wOBA and first in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. While the matchup is less than ideal, Stroman is at least a large favorite in this game. The run support is expected to be there, so if he can keep the Royals’ offense in check, there is a good chance he could walk away with a win. The biggest issue here is his strikeout potential.
Pitcher Rating: 75.2
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
The Royals draw a difficult matchup against Marcus Stroman on paper, but given the price points of their hitters, I find myself rostering as many hitters in this lineup as I can. Stroman isn’t a high strikeout pitcher and the Royals strikeout less than any team in baseball. They should be able to make contact tonight in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play here.
Elite Plays:
Eric Hosmer : FD: $3,100 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 782 — wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.163 — wRC+: 124
Last 30 Days: PA: 118 — wOBA: 0.320 — ISO: 0.192 — wRC+: 101
Salvador Perez : FD: $2,400 — DK: $3,300
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 834 — wOBA: 0.317 — ISO: 0.164 — wRC+: 100
Last 30 Days: PA: 95 — wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.167 — wRC+: 103
Alcides Escobar : FD: $2,300 — DK: $3,300
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 921 — wOBA: 0.279 — ISO: 0.069 — wRC+: 74
Last 30 Days: PA: 102 — wOBA: 0.240 — ISO: 0.073 — wRC+: 46
Secondary Plays:
Kendrys Morales : FD: $3,800 — DK: $4,100
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 629 — wOBA: 0.335 — ISO: 0.194 — wRC+: 113
Last 30 Days: PA: 96 — wOBA: 0.405 — ISO: 0.272 — wRC+: 159
Lorenzo Cain : FD: $3,700 — DK: $4,700
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 759 — wOBA: 0.328 — ISO: 0.117 — wRC+: 108
Last 30 Days: PA: 94 — wOBA: 0.307 — ISO: 0.115 — wRC+: 92
Ben Zobrist : FD: $3,200 — DK: $3,900
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 835 — wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.141 — wRC+: 107
Last 30 Days: PA: 119 — wOBA: 0.289 — ISO: 0.150 — wRC+: 80
Mike Moustakas : FD: $3,100 — DK: $4,000
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 769 — wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.164 — wRC+: 104
Last 30 Days: PA: 110 — wOBA: 0.390 — ISO: 0.275 — wRC+: 149
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Toronto
The Blue Jays have the highest team total on the board in this slate of games. They draw a nice matchup against Johnny Cueto at home. The Blue Jays are the best offense left standing in the playoffs and that should be on display tonight. In theory, we want to have as many Toronto bats in our lineup as we can, but it’s hard to take more than a couple, as they are expensive on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Elite Plays:
Jose Bautista : FD: $4,400 — DK: $4,900
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 1061 — wOBA: 0.393 — ISO: 0.266 — wRC+: 152
Last 30 Days: PA: 116 — wOBA: 0.451 — ISO: 0.359 — wRC+: 191
Chris Colabello : FD: $3,000 — DK: $3,400
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 1B/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 398 — wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.173 — wRC+: 123
Last 30 Days: PA: 56 — wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: 0.216 — wRC+: 126
Ben Revere : FD: $2,800 — DK: $3,600
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 897 — wOBA: 0.308 — ISO: 0.066 — wRC+: 93
Last 30 Days: PA: 121 — wOBA: 0.335 — ISO: 0.097 — wRC+: 111
Secondary Plays:
Josh Donaldson : FD: $4,600 — DK: $4,600
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 1080 — wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: 0.208 — wRC+: 131
Last 30 Days: PA: 120 — wOBA: 0.375 — ISO: 0.210 — wRC+: 138
Troy Tulowitzki : FD: $3,600 — DK: $4,500
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 694 — wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.172 — wRC+: 109
Last 30 Days: PA: 35 — wOBA: 0.302 — ISO: 0.147 — wRC+: 88
Kevin Pillar : FD: $3,200 — DK: $3,400
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 537 — wOBA: 0.308 — ISO: 0.131 — wRC+: 92
Last 30 Days: PA: 102 — wOBA: 0.400 — ISO: 0.191 — wRC+: 156
NY Mets at Chicago Cubs – Tuesday, 8:07 PM EST
| NY Mets | Chicago Cubs | ||||||||
 | Jacob Degrom |  | Kyle Hendricks | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| NYM (-125) | TBD | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.236 | 0.655 | 0.289 | 25.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.254 | 0.730 | 0.317 | 18.70% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.198 | 0.532 | 0.235 | 27.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.229 | 0.596 | 0.265 | 21.50% |
| Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jacob deGrom : FD: $10,600 — DK: $11,600
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 327.1 — SIERA: 3.10 — ERA: 2.64 — K%: 26.3% — BB%: 6.1% — HR/9: 0.6
Last 30 Days: IP: 24.0 — SIERA: 2.68 — ERA: 4.50 — K%: 27.3% — BB%: 2.0% — HR/9: 0.4
Chicago Cubs Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.316 (Rank: 14) — Strikeout Rate: 24.0% (Rank: 30)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 24.2% (Rank: 28)
Pitches per PA: 3.97 (Rank: 1)
Analysis: DeGrom has been absolutely terrific in the postseason. He dominated the Dodgers in Game 1 of the NLDS and then he pitched around a lot of trouble to lead the Mets to a win in Game 5. DeGrom draws a favorable strikeout matchup against the Cubs, who had the highest strikeout rate of any team in baseball against right-handed pitching. The issue here is twofold: he will be pitching on the road in front of a raucous Chicago crowd and his command was off in his last start. If he is unable to locate his pitches, that could lead to a lot of walks against a Cubs’ team that averaged the most pitches per plate appearance this season. DeGrom is the top pitching option in this slate, but there is still a bit of risk here.
Pitcher Rating: 93.9
Kyle Hendricks : FD: $7,700 — DK: $8,800
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 254.1 — SIERA: 3.63 — ERA: 3.57 — K%: 19.8% — BB%: 5.6% — HR/9: 0.7
Last 30 Days: IP: 26.2 — SIERA: 2.61 — ERA: 3.71 — K%: 30.1% — BB%: 5.8% — HR/9: 1.0
New York Mets Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.308 (Rank: 20) — Strikeout Rate: 20.2% (Rank: 15)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.329 (Rank: 8) — Strikeout Rate: 22.2% (Rank: 23)
Pitches per PA: 3.89 (Rank: 6)
Analysis: Hendricks gave up three runs in four and two-third innings against the Cardinals in Game 2 of the NLDS. He recovered after a bad start and ended up striking out seven batters in a no-decision. The biggest issue here is that the Cubs are down 2-0 in this series. They will be quick to pull the plug on Hendricks if he struggles early, which really limits his fantasy appeal. Odds are that he will pitch the fewest innings of any starter in this slate. Even though his matchup against the Mets is a decent one, I will be avoiding Hendricks in all league formats.
Pitcher Rating: 65.5
Batter Grind Down
NY Mets
The Mets have one of the best matchups in this slate of games. Since the start of the 2014 season, Kyle Hendricks has allowed a .317 wOBA to left-handed hitters. Daniel Murphy is becoming close to a must play, after he hit yet another home run in Game 2 against Jake Arrieta. The other left-handed bats in this lineup are secondary options at their respective positions.
Elite Plays:
Daniel Murphy : FD: $3,800 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 880 — wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: 0.154 — wRC+: 118
Last 30 Days: PA: 92 — wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.264 — wRC+: 131
Secondary Plays:
Curtis Granderson : FD: $3,700 — DK: $4,500
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 1009 — wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.191 — wRC+: 128
Last 30 Days: PA: 102 — wOBA: 0.390 — ISO: 0.200 — wRC+: 155
Lucas Duda : FD: $3,600 — DK: $4,600
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 889 — wOBA: 0.375 — ISO: 0.255 — wRC+: 144
Last 30 Days: PA: 83 — wOBA: 0.395 — ISO: 0.348 — wRC+: 158
David Wright : FD: $3,400 — DK: $4,100
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 582 — wOBA: 0.296 — ISO: 0.099 — wRC+: 91
Last 30 Days: PA: 94 — wOBA: 0.370 — ISO: 0.188 — wRC+: 141
Michael Conforto : FD: $2,500 — DK: $3,600
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 174 — wOBA: 0.381 — ISO: 0.265 — wRC+: 148
Last 30 Days: PA: 82 — wOBA: 0.323 — ISO: 0.231 — wRC+: 109
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs find themselves in an 0-2 hole, after scoring one run in the first two games of the series combined. Their offense is going to need to pull their weight the rest of the way if they want to have any chance of advancing to the World Series. They draw a difficult matchup against Jacob deGrom, but again, that doesn’t mean that we have to avoid this offense altogether. Dexter Fowler is a borderline elite play on FanDuel ($2,800), while the rest of the Cubs’ bats are secondary options.
Elite Plays:
Dexter Fowler : FD: $2,800 — DK: $4,000
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 909 — wOBA: 0.325 — ISO: 0.147 — wRC+: 106
Last 30 Days: PA: 117 — wOBA: 0.302 — ISO: 0.117 — wRC+: 89
Secondary Plays:
Anthony Rizzo : FD: $4,400 — DK: $4,700
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 935 — wOBA: 0.387 — ISO: 0.254 — wRC+: 147
Last 30 Days: PA: 125 — wOBA: 0.333 — ISO: 0.162 — wRC+: 110
Kris Bryant : FD: $4,300 — DK: $4,200
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 492 — wOBA: 0.380 — ISO: 0.219 — wRC+: 142
Last 30 Days: PA: 117 — wOBA: 0.375 — ISO: 0.198 — wRC+: 139
Kyle Schwarber : FD: $3,400 — DK: $4,400
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: C/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 205 — wOBA: 0.409 — ISO: 0.287 — wRC+: 162
Last 30 Days: PA: 84 — wOBA: 0.306 — ISO: 0.145 — wRC+: 92