MLB Grind Down: Saturday, July 4 - Page Two

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2015-07-04 17:03:12

San Diego at St. Louis – 2:15 PM EST

San Diego					St. Louis
			Odrisamer Despaigne					Carlos Martinez
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			STL (-196)					7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.253	0.733	0.325	0.11	SP vs. Left	0.252	0.778	0.337	0.178
SP vs. Right	0.241	0.66	0.293	0.181	SP vs. Right	0.23	0.603	0.27	0.291
Batter Splits	SDP BvP		SD vs R		Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Odrisamer Despaigne

St. Louis Cardinals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.324 (Rank: 6)
Strikeout Rate: 18.9% (Rank: 9)

Despaigne is not someone we want to use a roster spot on in daily fantasy. His strikeout rate of 12.9% is well below average for major league starters currently and has a tough matchup against the Cardinals who have been very solid against righties (.324 wOBA). Avoid him today. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5,200 FD, $5,100 DK

Carlos Martinez

San Diego Padres vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.291 (Rank: 27)
Strikeout Rate: 22.3% (Rank: 26)

CMart has been great in his first full year as a starter for the Cardinals. In 15 starts, Martinez has a xFIP of 3.17 and has not allowed more than three earned runs in his last nine starts. Martinez is also striking batters out at a very high 25.9% rate. Combine this with the matchup against the Padres who have just been terrible all season long against right-handed pitching. Martinez can be used in all formats this afternoon. Rating = 7.5

Salaries: $10,000 FD, $9,000 DK

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

The Padres are not in play this afternoon, as they have to face Martinez who has had nine straight strong outings. They are not worth the roster spot today.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays:

None

St. Louis

Despaigne has allowed a wOBA of .330+ from both sides of the plate in 2015. The Cardinals bats make very solid plays this afternoon and the lefties are elite plays.

Elite Plays

Matt Carpenter
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.395 — ISO: 0.198 — OBP: 0.416

Kolten Wong
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.367 — ISO: 0.206 — OBP: 0.355

Secondary Plays:

Jason Heyward
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.311 — ISO: 0.179 — OBP: 0.291

Jhonny Peralta
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.363 — ISO: 0.148 — OBP: 0.375

Cleveland at Pittsburgh – 4:05 PM EST

Cleveland					Pittsburgh
			Cody Anderson					Jeff Locke
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PIT (-120)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.16	0.48	0.205	0.16	SP vs. Left	0.219	0.607	0.272	0.113
SP vs. Right	0.138	0.305	0.141	0.067	SP vs. Right	0.275	0.766	0.337	0.181
Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs L		Batter Splits			PIT vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Cody Anderson

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.308 (Rank: 18)
Strikeout Rate: 20.0% (Rank: 18)

Mr. Anderson began the onslaught of quality starts against the Rays for the Indians early last week with a very solid performance. He has been great in his first two starts of his career, only allowing one earned run in 15.2 innings pitched. His upside is a bit limited by his low strikeout rate, but he should make for a quality second arm if he is cheap at your site. Rating = 6

Salaries: $6,400 FD, $5,700 DK

Jeff Locke

Cleveland Indians vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.320 (Rank: 8)
Strikeout Rate: 16.9% (Rank: 2)

Locke has been average in his 15 starts for the Pirates this year. He has a solid 3.97 xFIP on the year, but like his opposing pitcher, his upside is limited by his 17.3% strikeout rate. The lefty-heavy Indians squad looks like a decent matchup on paper, but the Indians are actually ranked eighth in the league in team wOBA against lefties and strikeout at a very low rate of 16.9%. Locke is not a safe option today. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6,700 FD, $5,800 DK

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Locke has allowed a wOBA of .325+ from both sides of the plate this year. Anytime a lefty is in play against the Indians, Raburn immediately becomes a great value play and the other big names are in play as well.

Elite Plays:

Ryan Raburn
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.407 — ISO: 0.253 — OBP: 0.400

Carlos Santana
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.282 — ISO: 0.032 — OBP: 0.354

Secondary Plays:

Jason Kipnis
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: 0.148 — OBP: 0.341

Mike Aviles
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.301 — ISO: 0.095 — OBP: 0.326

Pittsburgh

Anderson has been solid in his two starts, both coming against the Rays. This is a tougher matchup, but I like the bats in other games better today.

Secondary Plays:

Andrew McCutchen
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.378 — ISO: 0.208 — OBP: 0.385

Neil Walker
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.349 — ISO: 0.157— OBP: 0.357

Seattle at Oakland – 4:05 PM EST

Seattle					Oakland
			Felix Hernandez					Kendall Graveman
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SEA (-128)					7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.198	0.549	0.247	0.237	SP vs. Left	0.275	0.746	0.333	0.128
SP vs. Right	0.2	0.576	0.257	0.298	SP vs. Right	0.258	0.706	0.308	0.171
Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs R		Batter Splits	OAK BvP		OAK vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Felix Hernandez

Oakland Athletics vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.320 (Rank: 12)
Strikeout Rate: 17.2% (Rank: 4)

King Felix has now alternated solid starts with very poor starts. He is going to try to break that trend today as he takes on an Athletics squad who has made things difficult for Hernandez earlier this year (five earned runs in 12 innings pitched). With that said, anytime Felix takes the mound he is a top option as his K rate is always high (24.6%) and always does a good job keeping runners of the base pads. He gets a tough matchup this afternoon against the A’s who rarely strikeout (17.2%). With the matchup, Bumgarner makes for the better top tier play, but guys like Pineda and CMart may make more sense for cash games today to save cap space on pitching. Rating = 8

Salaries: $11,500 FD, $11,400 DK

Kendall Graveman

Seattle Mariners vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.290 (Rank: 28)
Strikeout Rate: 22.6% (Rank: 27)

After a tough start to the season, Graveman has really pitched well over the last couple weeks. He has not allowed more than three earned runs in his last eight starts, while making six quality starts in a row. Graveman does come with some problems today, as he does not strikeout enough batters (14.6%) to make up for his 7.6% walk rate. He has a good matchup against an inept offense today, but run support may be tough against Felix. Rating = 5

Salaries: $5,400 FD, $6,000 DK

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners bats are very cheap this afternoon due to their struggles all season. They do, however, have some solid bats that could get to Graveman, especially Cano and Seager as Graveman has allowed a wOBA of .333 to lefties on the year.

Elite Plays:

Robinson Cano
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.301 — ISO: 0.135 — OBP: 0.301

Kyle Seager
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.310 — ISO: 0.187 — OBP: 0.315

Secondary Plays:

Nelson Cruz
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.358 — ISO: 0.195 — OBP: 0.341

Oakland

With Felix on the mound today, paying up for the A’s bats does not seem like a winning strategy as he is still allowing wOBAs of under .280 from both sides of the plate.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

None

Minnesota at Kansas City – 7:15 PM EST

Minnesota					Kansas City
			Mike Pelfrey					Joe Blanton
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			KCR (-170)					8
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.244	0.736	0.33	0.107	SP vs. Left	0.259	0.774	0.326	0.188
SP vs. Right	0.326	0.83	0.365	0.103	SP vs. Right	0.208	0.591	0.256	0.259
Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs R		Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KC vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Pelfrey

Kansas City Royals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 13)
Strikeout Rate: 16.1% (Rank: 1)

When you see the name Pelfrey, you should just continue looking for better options in daily fantasy. He was pitching above his means a bit as he still has a 3.81 ERA on the year, but a SIERA almost a full point higher at 4.58. Add this to the fact that he has one of the lowest strikeout rates of any starter out there (11.2%) and has a tough matchup, you can safely avoid. Rating = 3

Salaries: $6,100 FD, $4,100 DK

Joe Blanton

Minnesota Twins vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.299 (Rank: 23)
Strikeout Rate: 20.2% (Rank: 20)

Blanton was surprising us all I think in those first two starts as he only allowed one earned run in each. Yet, the wheels fell off pretty quickly as he allowed five earned runs in 2.2 innings in his last start against the Astros. Even if Blanton pitches well, he would need a near perfect start to make any sort of value as he will not be pitching more than five or six innings tonight. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5,500 FD, $4,100 DK

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins are not the best offense against righties, but do feature a few guys that hit regardless of the handedness of the pitcher. They have a solid matchup against Blanton and should put up a number of runs today.

Elite Plays:

Brian Dozier
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.362 — ISO: 0.257 — OBP: 0.331

Eddie Rosario
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.317 — ISO: 0.158 — OBP: 0.298

Secondary Plays:

Torii Hunter
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: 0.201 — OBP: 0.338

Kansas City

Pelfrey is a guy that has hurt a lot of the DFS community throughout this season, but now looks like the time to attack him again. Even though he has kept runs off the board for the better half of the season, he is still allowing a wOBA of .345 against lefties on the year, which bodes well for this Royals offense.

Elite Plays:

Eric Hosmer
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.362 — ISO: 0.172— OBP: 0.370

Mike Moustakas
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.386 — ISO: 0.148 — OBP: 0.397

Kendrys Morales
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.370 — ISO: 0.246 — OBP: 0.342

Alex Gordon
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.359 — ISO: 0.172 — OBP: 0.394

Secondary Plays:

Salvador Perez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.329 — ISO: 0.197 — OBP: 0.294

Lorenzo Cain
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 — ISO: 0.141 — OBP: 0.318

NY Mets at LA Dodgers – 7:15 PM EST

NY Mets					LA Dodgers
			Matt Harvey					Zack Greinke
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAD (-177)					6.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.222	0.703	0.304	0.271	SP vs. Left	0.235	0.615	0.274	0.232
SP vs. Right	0.223	0.593	0.258	0.222	SP vs. Right	0.226	0.625	0.275	0.253
Batter Splits	NYM BvP		NYM vs R		Batter Splits	LAD BvP		LA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Harvey

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.341 (Rank: 1)
Strikeout Rate: 19.6% (Rank: 15)

This should be a very exciting matchup to watch if you are around a television tonight. Harvey will be taking the mound for the Mets and after that slightly rough stretch in early June, has really been stellar the rest of the season. He comes into this game sporting a 3.13 SIERA to go along with his solid 24.4% strikeout rate. The matchup is tough against the Dodgers today as they are top in the league in wOBA against right-handed pitching. Even with the matchup, he makes a solid play tonight. *Rating = 7.5 *

Salaries: $10,500 FD, $10,800 DK

Zack Greinke

New York Mets vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.285 (Rank: 29)
Strikeout Rate: 20.6% (Rank: 21)

At least in the earned run department Greinke has really been the ace of this Dodgers staff. He has gone three straight starts without an earned run, while continuing to keep his strikeout rate at a solid 22.6% rate. With the matchup, Greinke gets top billing in the late slate and is as safe as they come tonight and is the cash game chalk of the night. Rating = 9

Salaries: $11,200 FD, $11,100 DK

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets are a bottom of the league offense going up against Greinke today. We can safely avoid their bats with so many better matchups on the board tonight.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays:

None

LA Dodgers

Even though they are the best team in the league against right-handed pitching, they are facing an elite righty and there are a number of games with totals over nine. Do not waste your money on what should be a 2-1 game again.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays:

None

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