MLB Grind Down: Sunday, July 19th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
Note: For more info on DFS MLB scoring systems on the two largest sites, check out our DraftKings review and FanDuel review.
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Seattle at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM EST
| Seattle | NY Yankees | ||||||||
 | Felix Hernandez |  | CC Sabathia | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| SEA (-123) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.204 | 0.561 | 0.252 | 23.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.181 | 0.484 | 0.217 | 29.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.200 | 0.570 | 0.254 | 30.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.323 | 0.000 | 0.399 | 18.40% |
| Batter Splits | SEA BvP | SEA vs L | Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
New York Yankees vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.329 (Rank: 4)
Strikeout Rate: 18.9% (Rank: 23)
Felix Hernandez kicks off a day that is stock full of ace pitchers on the mound. We’ll have to be a little more stringent with the ratings today, as it is very hard to parse out the best plays of the bunch. While Hernandez certainly has as much upside as anyone else on the mound today, I don’t love him as my top option as he pitches against a decent offense in a park that caters to left-handed power. He’s a fine play, but he checks in about fifth or sixth on my list today. Rating = 8.5
Salaries: $11,400 FD, $10,800 DK
Seattle Mariners vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.298 (Rank: 20)
Strikeout Rate: 20.3% (Rank: 20)
The Seattle offense has struggled for much of the 2015 season, and their lineup also sports several left-handed bats. However, they have picked up their play of late and a lot of it has been due to the hot bat of Robinson Cano. No matter the opponent, I simply can’t trust Sabathia and his long-ball-allowing tendencies at this stage of his career Rating = 3.5
Salaries: $7,200 FD, $6,200 DK
Batter Grind Down
Seattle
There has been much money to be made in fantasy baseball this year by loading up on right-handed bats against C.C. Sabathia. The unfortunate news is that a good majority of Seattle’s offense is left-handed. The good news is that Nelson Cruz is in a fantastic spot in this matchup, and he’s one of the top overall bats of the day.
Elite Plays
Nelson Cruz
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.521 — ISO: .403 — OBP: 0.474
Secondary Plays
Austin Jackson
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: .203 — OBP: 0.309
NY Yankees
Even though I’m not completely sold on King Felix as my top pitching option of the day, I still can’t target any hitters against him. Look elsewhere.
Elite Plays
NO RECOMMENDED PLAYS
Tampa Bay at Toronto – 1:07 PM EST
| Tampa Bay | Toronto | ||||||||
 | Chris Archer |  | Marco Estrada | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TBR (-109) | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.219 | 0.611 | 0.275 | 24.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.224 | 0.693 | 0.305 | 18.70% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.238 | 0.637 | 0.287 | 24.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.239 | 0.741 | 0.325 | 20.90% |
| Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TB vs R | Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Toronto Blue Jays vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.328 (Rank: 5)
Strikeout Rate: 19.2% (Rank: 19)
Chris Archer checks in as another one of the aces taking the mound on Sunday, and his circumstances are similar to those of Felix Hernandez in that he has to face a tough offense in a hitters’ ballpark. Archer’s 2.74 ERA, 2.56 xFIP, and 10.87 K/9 are all elite, but he got knocked around in his last start and this matchup really worries me. He’s a great tournament play as he will go under-owned today, but I can’t roll the dice in cash game formats. Rating = 7.5
Salaries: $10,200 FD, $10,500 DK
Tampa Bay Rays vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.293 (Rank: 26)
Strikeout Rate: 22.1% (Rank: 5)
Marco Estrada has been surprisingly effective for a good chunk of this season, but the warning signs are there. His xFIP is a full run higher than his ERA, he allows a lot of fly balls, and he walks a lot of batters. When you pitch in the Rogers Centre, this is not a good combination. Estrada is off my fantasy radar despite matching up against a team that scuffles against RHP. Rating = 4
Salaries: $7,900 FD, $5,700 DK
Batter Grind Down
Tampa Bay
The problem here lies in the matchup. I like taking power bats against Estrada, especially since this game will be in Toronto. The Rays, unfortunately, don’t really have many power hitters. That leaves most of their top-of-the-order bats as secondary plays today.
Elite Plays
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays
Evan Longoria
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.317 — ISO: .143 — OBP: 0.324
John Jaso
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.479 — ISO: .238 — OBP: 0.480
Toronto
Targeting bats against Chris Archer is generally not a good idea, but the Blue Jays always carry upside no matter the matchup. They are certainly in play as ultra-contrarian tournament options today, but that’s as far as I will go.
Elite Plays
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays
Edwin Encarnacion
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.338 — ISO: .244 — OBP: 0.313
Jose Reyes
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.320 — ISO: .108 — OBP: 0.330
Baltimore at Detroit – 1:08 PM EST
| Baltimore | Detroit | ||||||||
 | Miguel Gonzalez |  | Justin Verlander | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| DET (-114) | 9.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.252 | 0.754 | 0.331 | 16.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.238 | 0.701 | 0.310 | 18.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.241 | 0.727 | 0.321 | 18.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.309 | 0.000 | 0.366 | 15.70% |
| Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Detroit Tigers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.334 (Rank: 3)
Strikeout Rate: 19.0% (Rank: 22)
Today’s starter for the Orioles is your prototypical definition of an average major-league pitcher. His ERA is 4.24, he strikes out about seven batters per nine innings, he has a 7-6 record, and he sometimes struggles with the long ball. He should not be targeted against a Detroit offense that is still dangerous despite the loss of Miguel Cabrera. Rating = 4
Salaries: $7,300 FD, $6,100 DK
Baltimore Orioles vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 8)
Strikeout Rate: 22.5% (Rank: 3)
If you still look forward to taking a shot with Justin Verlander, please step in your time machine and forward it to the appropriate year. This is now 2015, not 2011. Verlander is arguably one of the worst pitchers in the league right now, with a 5.34 ERA and an awful strikeout rate of just 5.34 per nine innings. He’s also walking more batters than he has in his whole career. Just say no! Rating = 2
Salaries: $7,300 FD, $5,000 DK
Batter Grind Down
Baltimore
For some reason, fantasy players still aren’t targeting bats against Justin Verlander as much as they should. Baltimore should put some runs on the board in this game, and they make a great tournament stack, too.
Elite Plays
Matt Wieters
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: .219 — OBP: 0.329
Manny Machado
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.388 — ISO: .242 — OBP: 0.366
Secondary Plays
Adam Jones
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.336 — ISO: .191 — OBP: 0.316
Jonathan Schoop
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.465 — ISO: .412 — OBP: 0.361
Detroit
This is definitely a game where you can target bats. Detroit’s offense can still mash, even with their best hitter out of the lineup. J.D. Martinez has been picking up the slack this month and should be a force for the rest of the season.
Elite Plays
J.D. Martinez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.397 — ISO: .298 — OBP: 0.338
Secondary Plays
Yoenis Cespedes
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.373 — ISO: .207 — OBP: 0.344
Ian Kinsler
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.325 — ISO: .101 — OBP: 0.351
Cleveland at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM EST
| Cleveland | Cincinnati | ||||||||
 | Carlos Carrasco |  | Johnny Cueto | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CIN (-119) | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.210 | 0.582 | 0.260 | 26.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.183 | 0.536 | 0.244 | 24.90% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.243 | 0.649 | 0.284 | 27.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.197 | 0.604 | 0.267 | 25.40% |
| Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Cincinnati Reds vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.311 (Rank: 16)
Strikeout Rate: 18.4% (Rank: 25)
Carlos Carrasco has looked like a different pitcher over his past few starts and is gaining momentum after his near no-hitter against the Rays on July 1. His strikeout rate remains elite, and his xFIP and SIERA are both over a run better than his ERA. Positive results are coming in the second half of the season, and he could keep the momentum going against the Reds despite this game being played in a hitter-friendly park. Carrasco is a fine option for all formats, but I prefer him on a site like DraftKings where the win does not get weighted highly (more on this below). Rating = 8
Salaries: $9,500 FD, $9,800 DK
Cleveland Indians vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.301 (Rank: 22)
Strikeout Rate: 18.7% (Rank: 24)
The reason Carrasco isn’t an elite option on a site like FanDuel is because Cueto is opposing him. He hit a small bump in the road in the early part of the season due to injury, but he has picked up where he left off, out-dueling Max Scherzer a week ago in a dazzling complete game shutout. His ownership will likely be lower than it should be today, as owners are still upset about his poor game against the Marlins last time out. Fire him up with confidence in what should be a low-scoring game, as the Indians offense has struggled in recent weeks. Rating = 8.5
Salaries: $11,000 FD, $10,700 DK
Batter Grind Down
Cleveland
We don’t need to be targeting bats against Johnny Cueto. Move along.
Elite Plays
NO RECOMMENDED PLAYS
Cincinnati
We don’t need to be targeting bats against Carlos Carrasco. Move along.
Elite Plays
NO RECOMMENDED PLAYS
LA Dodgers at Washington – 1:35 PM EST
| LA Dodgers | Washington | ||||||||
 | Zack Greinke |  | Max Scherzer | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| WAS (-106) | 6.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.226 | 0.590 | 0.263 | 23.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.232 | 0.655 | 0.290 | 25.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.224 | 0.617 | 0.272 | 25.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.199 | 0.554 | 0.246 | 32.90% |
| Batter Splits | LAD BvP | LA vs R | Batter Splits | WAS BvP | WAS vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Washington Nationals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.315 (Rank: 12)
Strikeout Rate: 20.8% (Rank: 7)
This game should be fun, and the circumstances mirror the Reds/Indians contest. Zack Greinke has not allowed a single earned run since June 13! He doesn’t get the credit he deserves because he doesn’t rack up double-digit strikeouts, but his production has been amazing. His 1.39 ERA leads the league by far, and he is always a safe cash game play. The problem? He is on the road and Max Scherzer is the opposing pitcher. The low win potential really hurts Greinke’s promise on a site like FanDuel today. Rating = 7.5
Salaries: $11,500 FD, $11,500 DK
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.335 (Rank: 2)
Strikeout Rate: 19.9% (Rank: 14)
What’s not to love about Mad Max? His 10.23 K/9? Check. His 0.95 BB/9? Check. His 2.11 ERA and 2.89 xFIP? Check. The ability to bring no-hit stuff to the table every time he takes the mound? Check. This will be a fun pitching duel and Scherzer is always a solid option. However, he carries a very high price tag and the Dodgers are a very capable offense against right-handed pitching. If there was ever a day to leave Scherzer on the table, this is probably it. Rating = 9
Salaries: $12,000 FD, $13,700 DK
Batter Grind Down
LA Dodgers
If you’re targeting bats against Max Scherzer, please private message me and we can play a head-to-head game anytime!
Elite Plays
NO RECOMMENDED PLAYS
Washington
Greinke has not allowed a single earned run in his last five starts, so it’s hard to target bats against him, too. Decent bats are hard to come by today with all the aces on the mound. I would target a bat or two against Greinke before I would target one against some of the others that are pitching today, but that’s not exactly a ringing endorsement.
Elite Plays
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays
Bryce Harper
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.494 — ISO: .389 — OBP: 0.469