MLB Grind Down: Sunday, October 11th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
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Kansas City at Houston – 4:10 PM EST
| Kansas City | Houston | ||||||||
 | Edinson Volquez |  | Dallas Keuchel | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| HOU (-175) | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.233 | 0.707 | 0.311 | 18.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.203 | 0.524 | 0.233 | 25.10% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.243 | 0.662 | 0.296 | 17.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.239 | 0.639 | 0.283 | 19.90% |
| Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KC vs L | Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 200.1 — SIERA: 4.35 — ERA: 3.55 — K%: 18.2% — BB%: 8.5% — HR/9: 0.72
Last 30 Days: IP: 32.0 — SIERA: 4.18 — ERA: 3.66 — K%: 20.1% — BB%: 8.6% — HR/9: 1.13
Houston Astros Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.324 (Rank: 4) — Strikeout Rate: 23.6% (Rank: 11)
Volquez takes the mound this afternoon for the Royals in a series that is tied up at one game apiece. Volquez is coming off a decent season, as he posted a 3.55 ERA (4.25 SIERA) over 33 starts. Over the last month (six starts), he has had similar success with a 4.18 SIERA and an average 20.1% strikeout rate. His matchup against the Astros is boom or bust as they were fifth in the league in home runs against righties, while also striking out at a 23.6% clip. He is a big underdog today, but with the pitching options in the TOR/TEX game, he is in play on SP2 sites, but a risky one at that. Rating = 6.5
Salaries: $8,300 FD, $8,400 DK
Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 232.0 — SIERA: 2.84 — ERA: 2.48 — K%: 23.7% — BB%: 5.6% — HR/9: 0.66
Last 30 Days: IP: 31.1 — SIERA: 3.09 — ERA: 3.73 — K%: 24.0% — BB%: 5.4% — HR/9: 1.15
Kansas City Royals Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.316 (Rank: 14) — Strikeout Rate: 15.1% (Rank: 29)
Keuchel takes the mound for the Astros after a great Wild Card performance against the Yankees. He will be coming off a full five days of rest tonight, which could make him a tough guy to fade due to the other pitching options going today. Keuchel has been solid all season long and has been good recently posting a 3.09 SIERA and 24% strikeout rate over the last month of play. While the matchup is not the greatest against the Royals, he is pitching at home where he went 15-0 this year. He is the best pitching option of the day and it is not close. Rating = 8.5
Salaries: $11,000 FD, $12,300 DK
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
The Royals feature the lowest total on the slate at only 3.17 runs as they are heavy underdogs today against Keuchel. Keuchel has kept batters from both sides of the plate to a wOBA under .283 on the season. This Royals squad is not worth spending roster spots on, especially with the high total in the night game.
Elite Plays:
None
Secondary Plays:
None
Houston
Volquez comes into this game allowing a .311 wOBA to lefties and a .296 wOBA to righties. Volquez has always had a high walk rate (8.5% in 2015), which could lead to some big innings and the Astros do have a 3.83 team total. Carlos Correa and Colby Rasmus are elite plays today.
Elite Plays:
Colby Rasmus
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 345 — wOBA: 0.329 — ISO: 0.243 — wRC+: 107
Carlos Correa
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 292 — wOBA: 0.359 — ISO: 0.209 — wRC+: 128
Secondary Plays:
George Springer
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 291 — wOBA: 0.336 — ISO: 0.154 — wRC+: 113
Jose Altuve
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 479 — wOBA: 0.319 — ISO: 0.136 — wRC+: 101
Luis Valbuena
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 361 — wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.234 — wRC+: 121
Toronto at Texas – 8:10 PM EST
| Toronto | Texas | ||||||||
 | Marco Estrada |  | Martin Perez | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TOR (-130) | 9.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.210 | 0.672 | 0.293 | 17.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.224 | 0.607 | 0.273 | 27.00% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.227 | 0.706 | 0.310 | 20.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.290 | 0.768 | 0.336 | 12.10% |
| Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs L | Batter Splits | TEX BvP | TEX vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 181.0 — SIERA: 4.64 — ERA: 3.13 — K%: 18.1% — BB%: 7.6% — HR/9: 1.19
Last 30 Days: IP: 33.2 — SIERA: 4.83 — ERA: 2.94 — K%: 15.8% — BB%: 5.5% — HR/9: 1.60
Texas Rangers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 7) — Strikeout Rate: 19.0% (Rank: 18)
While the majority of the games so far this postseason have been pitching duels on paper, tonight we get a massive 9.5 total in the Blue Jays/Rangers game. Estrada will be taking the mound for the Blue Jays and did pitch well this year (3.13 ERA). Yet, his advanced stats on the season show a bit of a different story. His SIERA was a full run higher than his ERA at 4.64 and his upside is low due to his below average 18.1% strikeout rate. He takes these skills into a hitter-friendly environment in Texas against a Rangers squad ranked seventh in the league in team wOBA against righties (.321). He is a high risk/low reward pitcher tonight, but is a small favorite tonight and is in play on SP2 sites, with a lot of risk attached. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $8,900 FD, $7,800 DK
Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 78.2 — SIERA: 4.06 — ERA: 4.46 — K%: 14.2% — BB%: 7.1% — HR/9: 0.34
Last 30 Days: IP: 36.0 — SIERA: 3.23 — ERA: 2.00 — K%: 32.0% — BB%: 4.9% — HR/9: 1.00
Toronto Blue Jays Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.354 (Rank: 1) — Strikeout Rate: 17.6% (Rank: 3)
Perez gets the title for worst pitching option on the slate. He has virtually no upside tonight as he posted a very low 14.5% strikeout rate on the season. Yet, he has done a great job of keeping the ball in the park as he has only given up a 0.34 HR/9 in his 14 starts. He has the toughest matchup on the board against the Blue Jays who were ranked first in the league in team wOBA against righties (.354) and struck out at a low 17.6% rate. He is a very tough play tonight considering the park and the matchup. Rating = 4.5
Salaries: $6,200 FD, $6,000 DK
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
Perez has not been a good pitcher by far this year, but has done a decent job of limiting the damage against him for the majority of his starts. With that said, this Blue Jays squad features the highest team total at 5.01 as Perez has allowed a wOBA of .336 to righties. This season it was extremely profitable to stack the Blue Jays against lefties and tonight is no different as the majority of this lineup is in play.
Elite Plays:
Josh Donaldson
2015 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 138 — wOBA: 0.428 — ISO: 0.333 — wRC+: 175
Jose Bautista
2015 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 131 — wOBA: 0.363 — ISO: 0.221 — wRC+: 130
Edwin Encarnacion
2015 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 118 — wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: 0.220 — wRC+: 128
Secondary Plays:
Troy Tulowitzki
2015 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 33 — wOBA: 0.367 — ISO: 0.143 — wRC+: 132 (w/ Blue Jays)
Russell Martin
2015 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 111 — wOBA: 0.406 — ISO: 0.244 — wRC+: 159
Ben Revere
2015 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 71 — wOBA: 0.336 — ISO: 0.033 — wRC+: 111 (w/ Blue Jays)
Chris Colabello
2015 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 99 — wOBA: 0.400 — ISO: 0.264 — wRC+: 155
Texas
This is clearly the game that we want to target the hitters in today as both team run totals are at a solid number. The Rangers feature a 4.41 total as they take on Estrada tonight. Estrada has allowed lefties a .293 wOBA, while righties have had a .310 wOBA. Prince Fielder, Shin-Soo Choo and Mitch Moreland are solid plays, while Delino DeShields is in play as well leading off.
Elite Plays:
Prince Fielder
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 464 — wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: 0.230 — wRC+: 133
Shin-Soo Choo
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 405 — wOBA: 0.396 — ISO: 0.218 — wRC+: 148
Mitch Moreland
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 348 — wOBA: 0.372 — ISO: 0.234 — wRC+: 132
Secondary Plays:
Delino Deshields
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 321 — wOBA: 0.308 — ISO: 0.109 — wRC+: 87
Rougned Odor
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 300 — wOBA: 0.333 — ISO: 0.210 — wRC+: 105