MLB Grind Down: Thursday, September 10th - Page Two
Detroit at Cleveland – 7:10 PM EST
| Detroit | Cleveland | ||||||||
 | Alfredo Simon |  | Danny Salazar | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CLE (-187) | 8 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.264 | 0.78 | 0.338 | 0.139 | SP vs. Left | 0.233 | 0.709 | 0.307 | 0.278 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.233 | 0.674 | 0.298 | 0.169 | SP vs. Right | 0.248 | 0.71 | 0.311 | 0.255 |
| Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R | Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Alfredo Simon : FD: $7,800 — DK: $5,700
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 350.0 — SIERA: 4.48 — ERA: 4.06 — K%: 15.3% — BB%: 7.7% — HR/9: 1.1
Last 30 Days: IP: 37.0 — SIERA: 5.66 — ERA: 5.84 — K%: 10.6% — BB%: 10.6% — HR/9: 1.5
Cleveland Indians Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.312 (Rank: 17) — Strikeout Rate: 18.7% (Rank: 6)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.323 (Rank: 15) — Strikeout Rate: 16.8% (Rank: 5)
Pitches per PA: 3.90 (Rank: 3)
Analysis: Simon is the lowest-rated pitcher on the schedule tonight. He has been in awful form recently, posting a 5.66 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 10.6% over the last month of play. He is a large underdog on the road and he should be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.
Pitcher Rating: 27.5
Danny Salazar : FD: $9,400 — DK: $10,600
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 265.0 — SIERA: 3.24 — ERA: 3.84 — K%: 26.5% — BB%: 7.1% — HR/9: 1.2
Last 30 Days: IP: 29.2 — SIERA: 3.50 — ERA: 4.25 — K%: 24.4% — BB%: 6.5% — HR/9: 1.8
Detroit Tigers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 8) — Strikeout Rate: 19.9% (Rank: 14)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.291 (Rank: 28) — Strikeout Rate: 17.6% (Rank: 8)
Pitches per PA: 3.84 (Rank: 9)
Analysis: Salazar has been in great form over the last month of play, posting a 3.50 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24.4%. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Tigers, but they have struggled to score runs recently, ranking 28th in team wOBA over the last two weeks. This would typically be a spot to avoid Salazar, but he makes a strong case for an SP2 on multi-pitcher sites.
Pitcher Rating: 81.8
Batter Grind Down
Detroit
The Tigers are large underdogs tonight against Danny Salazar, who has been tough on both left and right-handed hitters this season. Miguel Cabrera and J.D. Martinez are both intriguing tournament plays, but the rest of the lineup can be avoided.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
Miguel Cabrera : FD: $4,300 — DK: $4,400
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 844 — wOBA: 0.400 — ISO: 0.205 — wRC+: 159
Last 30 Days: PA: 107 — wOBA: 0.417 — ISO: 0.183 — wRC+: 169
J.D. Martinez : FD: $3,600 — DK: $4,200
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 781 — wOBA: 0.381 — ISO: 0.242 — wRC+: 145
Last 30 Days: PA: 109 — wOBA: 0.343 — ISO: 0.245 — wRC+: 117
Cleveland
The Indians have one of the highest team totals on the board tonight, as they square off against Alfredo Simon, who has given up a .338 wOBA to left-handed hitters over the last two seasons. All of the left-handed bats in this lineup are in play tonight at home.
Elite Plays:
Michael Brantley : FD: $4,000 — DK: $4,900
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 772 — wOBA: 0.396 — ISO: 0.188 — wRC+: 158
Last 30 Days: PA: 106 — wOBA: 0.412 — ISO: 0.258 — wRC+: 168
Jason Kipnis : FD: $3,000 — DK: $4,400
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 723 — wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: 0.134 — wRC+: 130
Last 30 Days: PA: 88 — wOBA: 0.265 — ISO: 0.122 — wRC+: 66
Secondary Plays:
Francisco Lindor : FD: $3,200 — DK: $4,000
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 214 — wOBA: 0.339 — ISO: 0.158 — wRC+: 116
Last 30 Days: PA: 124 — wOBA: 0.435 — ISO: 0.211 — wRC+: 183
Carlos Santana : FD: $3,000 — DK: $4,000
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 809 — wOBA: 0.341 — ISO: 0.202 — wRC+: 119
Last 30 Days: PA: 124 — wOBA: 0.331 — ISO: 0.132 — wRC+: 111
Lonnie Chisenhall : FD: $2,500 — DK: $3,000
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 644 — wOBA: 0.329 — ISO: 0.162 — wRC+: 111
Last 30 Days: PA: 73 — wOBA: 0.362 — ISO: 0.123 — wRC+: 132
NY Mets at Atlanta – 7:10 PM EST
| NY Mets | Atlanta | ||||||||
 | Bartolo Colon |  | Shelby Miller | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| NYM (-155) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.274 | 0.716 | 0.31 | 0.17 | SP vs. Left | 0.247 | 0.719 | 0.314 | 0.172 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.27 | 0.742 | 0.321 | 0.187 | SP vs. Right | 0.215 | 0.63 | 0.281 | 0.199 |
| Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Bartolo Colon : FD: $8,300 — DK: $7,900
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 372.1 — SIERA: 3.81 — ERA: 4.13 — K%: 17.8% — BB%: 3.3% — HR/9: 1.1
Last 30 Days: IP: 42.1 — SIERA: 4.00 — ERA: 2.55 — K%: 17.2% — BB%: 4.1% — HR/9: 1.1
Atlanta Braves Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.297 (Rank: 29) — Strikeout Rate: 17.7% (Rank: 3)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.285 (Rank: 29) — Strikeout Rate: 20.2% (Rank: 18)
Pitches per PA: 3.79 (Rank: 21)
Analysis: Colon has not given up a run in any of his last three starts. While he has given up 18 hits during that stretch, he has done an incredible job of pitching out of trouble. While I’d love to see him continue this run that he is on, I feel that now is the time to jump off the bandwagon. His ownership will be inflated tonight, his price has gone up, and the Braves have the third-lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.
Pitcher Rating: 61.0
Shelby Miller : FD: $8,100 — DK: $8,600
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 359.1 — SIERA: 4.32 — ERA: 3.28 — K%: 18.6% — BB%: 9.0% — HR/9: 0.8
Last 30 Days: IP: 36.1 — SIERA: 4.01 — ERA: 4.21 — K%: 23.6% — BB%: 10.2% — HR/9: 0.7
New York Mets Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.306 (Rank: 23) — Strikeout Rate: 19.9% (Rank: 14)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.381 (Rank: 3) — Strikeout Rate: 15.1% (Rank: 2)
Pitches per PA: 3.87 (Rank: 8)
Analysis: Miller is a sizable underdog tonight against the Mets, who are ranked third in team wOBA and second in strikeout rate over the last two weeks of play. Miller has improved his strikeout rate over the course of the season, but he’s not a great play tonight. He is a sizable underdog and he’s facing one of the hottest offenses in baseball.
Pitcher Rating: 44.1
Batter Grind Down
NY Mets
The Mets draw a mediocre matchup tonight against Shelby Miller, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 wOBA over the last two seasons. The Mets are in play thanks to their recent run, but they are secondary options tonight in the pitcher-friendly Turner Field.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
Yoenis Cespedes : FD: $5,200 — DK: $5,100
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 935 — wOBA: 0.362 — ISO: 0.221 — wRC+: 133
Last 30 Days: PA: 129 — wOBA: 0.474 — ISO: 0.454 — wRC+: 211
Curtis Granderson : FD: $3,600 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 932 — wOBA: 0.350 — ISO: 0.194 — wRC+: 127
Last 30 Days: PA: 119 — wOBA: 0.394 — ISO: 0.242 — wRC+: 156
Atlanta
The Braves will get overlooked tonight, as Bartolo Colon has not given up a single run in his last three starts. Colon’s SIERA suggests some serious regression though, and I actually don’t mind a couple of the Braves’ bats here. Freddie Freeman is an elite play at first base, while Hector Olivera remains a great value option at 2B/3B.
Elite Plays:
Freddie Freeman : FD: $3,600 — DK: $4,400
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 786 — wOBA: 0.389 — ISO: 0.204 — wRC+: 150
Last 30 Days: PA: 91 — wOBA: 0.386 — ISO: 0.130 — wRC+: 146
Secondary Plays:
Hector Olivera : FD: $2,500 — DK: $2,000
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 2B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 8 — wOBA: 0.196 — ISO: 0.000 — wRC+: 17
Last 30 Days: PA: 31 — wOBA: 0.344 — ISO: 0.143 — wRC+: 118
St. Louis at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM EST
| St. Louis | Cincinnati | ||||||||
 | Jaime Garcia |  | John Lamb | ||||||
| LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| STL (-140) | 8 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.282 | 0.726 | 0.322 | 0.235 | SP vs. Left | 0.333 | 1.145 | 0.478 | 0.294 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.194 | 0.538 | 0.24 | 0.189 | SP vs. Right | 0.31 | 0.841 | 0.362 | 0.264 |
| Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs L | Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jaime Garcia : FD: $9,100 — DK: $9,900
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 143.2 — SIERA: 3.10 — ERA: 2.57 — K%: 20.0% — BB%: 5.0% — HR/9: 0.6
Last 30 Days: IP: 41.0 — SIERA: 3.28 — ERA: 1.76 — K%: 19.8% — BB%: 4.9% — HR/9: 0.0
Cincinnati Reds Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.320 (Rank: 9) — Strikeout Rate: 19.5% (Rank: 8)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.331 (Rank: 11) — Strikeout Rate: 17.3% (Rank: 7)
Pitches per PA: 3.78 (Rank: 23)
Analysis: Garcia has pitched well this season and he is coming off of a season-high 108 pitches in his last outing. Both of which are promising moving forward. He draws a fairly difficult matchup tonight against the Reds though, as they are ranked ninth in team wOBA and eighth in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. He is a viable SP2 on multi-pitcher sites.
Pitcher Rating: 67.0
John Lamb : FD: $5,000 — DK: $6,500
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 28.0 — SIERA: 3.20 — ERA: 6.11 — K%: 26.8% — BB%: 5.7% — HR/9: 1.3
Last 30 Days: IP: 28.0 — SIERA: 3.20 — ERA: 6.11 — K%: 26.8% — BB%: 5.7% — HR/9: 1.3
St. Louis Cardinals Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.296 (Rank: 23) — Strikeout Rate: 22.6% (Rank: 24)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.330 (Rank: 12) — Strikeout Rate: 18.9% (Rank: 14)
Pitches per PA: 3.81 (Rank: 16)
Analysis: Lamb hasn’t had a ton of success in his first major league stint, but his indicators look very good. In his first 28 major league innings, he has a 3.20 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26.8%. While he is a sizable underdog tonight at home, he does draw a favorable matchup against the Cardinals, who are ranked 23rd in team wOBA and 24th in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. Lamb is a viable tournament option tonight against St. Louis.
Pitcher Rating: 66.5
Batter Grind Down
St. Louis
The Cardinals draw a mediocre matchup against John Lamb. While Lamb has given up a lot of runs, his indicators suggest some positive regression moving forward. Jhonny Peralta offers good value at shortstop, while Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty are both secondary options.
Elite Plays:
Jhonny Peralta : FD: $2,200 — DK: $3,800
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 295 — wOBA: 0.359 — ISO: 0.222 — wRC+: 130
Last 30 Days: PA: 107 — wOBA: 0.283 — ISO: 0.032 — wRC+: 78
Secondary Plays:
Randal Grichuk : FD: $3,500 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 168 — wOBA: 0.338 — ISO: 0.235 — wRC+: 115
Last 30 Days: PA: 29 — wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.269 — wRC+: 122
Stephen Piscotty : FD: $3,000 — DK: $4,400
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 44 — wOBA: 0.401 — ISO: 0.195 — wRC+: 158
Last 30 Days: PA: 115 — wOBA: 0.392 — ISO: 0.248 — wRC+: 151
Cincinnati
Jaime Garcia is a reverse-splits pitcher, but it’s hard to justify paying up for any of the left-handed hitters tonight, at least in cash games. Todd Frazier remains an elite play at minimum salary on FanDuel. Joey Votto is an interesting tournament play.
Elite Plays:
Todd Frazier : FD: $2,200 — DK: $4,100
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 1B/3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 278 — wOBA: 0.369 — ISO: 0.270 — wRC+: 133
Last 30 Days: PA: 119 — wOBA: 0.323 — ISO: 0.194 — wRC+: 101
Secondary Plays:
Joey Votto : FD: $5,000 — DK: $5,500
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 234 — wOBA: 0.423 — ISO: 0.255 — wRC+: 169
Last 30 Days: PA: 124 — wOBA: 0.536 — ISO: 0.364 — wRC+: 245