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MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 17th

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: For more info on DFS MLB scoring systems on the two largest sites, check out our DraftKings review and FanDuel review.

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Tampa Bay at Washington – 7:05 PM EST

Tampa Bay Washington
tampabaymlb Matt Andriese washingtonmlb Jordan Zimmermann
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS (-150) 7.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.351 0.909 0.393 13.1% SP vs. Left 0.273 0.700 0.309 18.60%
SP vs. Right 0.241 0.646 0.280 17.5% SP vs. Right 0.236 0.599 0.267 23.00%
Batter Splits TBR BvP TB vs R Batter Splits WAS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Andriese : FD: $5,000 — DK: $4,300

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 26.1 — SIERA: 3.62 — K%: 15.3% — BB%: 5.1% — FB Rate: 24.2% — HR/FB: 13.6%
Last 30 Days: IP: 5.2 — SIERA: 2.99 — K%: 20.8% — BB%: 4.2% — FB Rate: 17.6% — HR/FB: 0.0%

Washington Nationals Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.315 (Rank: 14) — Strikeout Rate: 20.8% (Rank: 22)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.290 (Rank: 24) — Strikeout Rate: 19.9% (Rank: 12)
Pitchers per PA: 3.75 (Rank: 20)

Analysis: Andriese is coming off of his best outing of the season, striking out five batters in 5.2 innings. He threw 85 pitches in that start, which was his highest pitch count this year. Until he can string together a few quality outings in a row (with close to 100 pitches), he can safely be avoided in daily fantasy. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against a competent Nationals’ offense.

Pitcher Rating:51.4


Jordan Zimmermann : FD: $8,200 — DK: $7,600

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 276.2 — SIERA: 3.46 — K%: 20.8% — BB%: 4.2% — FB Rate: 35.8% — HR/FB: 5.5%
Last 30 Days: IP: 30.1 — SIERA: 4.23 — K%: 16.9% — BB%: 6.2% — FB Rate: 37.1% — HR/FB: 2.8%

Tampa Bay Rays Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.297 (Rank: 23) — Strikeout Rate: 21.0% (Rank: 23)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.282 (Rank: 25) — Strikeout Rate: 20.8% (Rank: 17)
Pitchers per PA: 3.84 (Rank: 9)

Analysis: After finally appearing to regain his form, Zimmermann has given up a combined ten earned runs in his last two starts. He just doesn’t seem to have that extra gear this season, which has been a problem for all pitchers in the Nationals’ rotation outside of Max Scherzer. Zimmermann is a sizable favorite tonight against the Rays though, and the matchup is appealing. Tampa Bay is ranked 23rd in both wOBA (.297) and strikeout rate (21.0%) against right-handed pitching this season. Zimmermann deserves consideration, but with all of the other aces on the bump, he is nothing more than a tournament play tonight.

Pitcher Rating:75.7

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

NONEJordan Zimmermann pitches well at home and he has held left and right-handed hitters under a .310 wOBA over the last two seasons.


Washington

Bryce Harper : FD: $5,400 — DK: $5,700

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 473 — wOBA: 0.405 — ISO: 0.249 — wRC+: 160
Last 14 Days: PA: 55 — wOBA: 0.490 — ISO: 0.289 — wRC+: 216

Analysis: The Nationals put up 16 runs on the Rays last night. Harper hit another home run in that game, which brought his total up to 22 on the season. He is in the middle of another hot streak, posting a .460 wOBA and a .289 ISO in the last two weeks. He is expensive, but it only takes one swing of his bat to pay off that salary.

Denard Span

Salaries: FD: $3,100 — DK: $4,500
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 624 — wOBA: 0.362 — ISO: 0.139 — wRC+: 131


Baltimore at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM EST

Baltimore Philadelphia
baltimoremlb Ubaldo Jimenez philadelphiamlb Kevin Correia
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL (-165) 8.0
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.238 0.749 0.339 20.0% SP vs. Left 0.298 0.827 0.361 9.40%
SP vs. Right 0.244 0.670 0.301 23.7% SP vs. Right 0.292 0.000 0.346 14.40%
Batter Splits BAL BvP BAL vs R Batter Splits PHI BvP PHI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Ubaldo Jimenez : FD: $8,100 — DK: $7,200

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 193.0 — SIERA: 4.25 — K%: 21.7% — BB%: 12.0% — FB Rate: 33.0% — HR/FB: 11.2%
Last 30 Days: IP: 27.0 — SIERA: 3.93 — K%: 22.1% — BB%: 9.5% — FB Rate: 28.9% — HR/FB: 12.5%

Philadelphia Phillies Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.272 (Rank: 30) — Strikeout Rate: 19.5% (Rank: 10)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.278 (Rank: 27) — Strikeout Rate: 19.5% (Rank: 9)
Pitchers per PA: 3.72 (Rank: 26)

Analysis: Jimenez has pitched well this season, but we are starting to see his command falter a bit with ten walks in his last three starts. The good news for Jimenez is that he is facing a Phillies’ offense that swings early in the count. As a team, they average the fifth-fewest pitches per plate appearance. The Phillies are also ranked dead last in wOBA (.272) against right-handed pitching. He may not be a cash game option, but Jimenez makes a fine tournament option at his price point.

Pitcher Rating:66.0


Kevin Correia : FD: $5,200 — DK: $4,800

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 159.2 — SIERA: 4.69 — K%: 11.7% — BB%: 5.8% — FB Rate: 37.2% — HR/FB: 9.4%
Last 30 Days: IP: 5.2 — SIERA: 3.50 — K%: 17.4% — BB%: 4.4% — FB Rate: 18.8% — HR/FB: 0.0%

Baltimore Orioles Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.316 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 22.6% (Rank: 27)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 8) — Strikeout Rate: 22.7% (Rank: 26)
Pitchers per PA: 3.77 (Rank: 17)

Analysis: Correia pitched well in his first start of the season, but we have to look at the bigger sample size. He has a 4.69 SIERA with a very low strikeout rate of 11.7% in the last two seasons. He can safely be avoided against a surging Orioles’ offense that put up 17 runs last night.

Pitcher Rating:36.1

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Manny Machado : FD: $3,500 — DK: $4,800

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 461 — wOBA: 0.352 — ISO: 0.177 — wRC+: 126
Last 14 Days: PA: 56 — wOBA: 0.406 — ISO: 0.192 — wRC+: 164

Analysis: Machado hit not one, but two home runs in the Orioles’ offensive explosion last night. He has been red-hot over the last two weeks with a .406 wOBA and a .192 ISO. We like to target players that are in the midst of hot streak before their price reflects it. That’s the case with Machado tonight, as he is still listed at an affordable $3,500 on FanDuel. It appears to be another good night to load up on the Orioles.

Chris Davis

Salaries: FD: $3,300 — DK: $4,500
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 551 — wOBA: 0.319 — ISO: 0.210 — wRC+: 102

Matt Wieters

Salaries: FD: $3,300 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 112 — wOBA: 0.401 — ISO: 0.233 — wRC+: 159

Jimmy Paredes

Salaries: FD: $2,500 — DK: $4,000
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 224 — wOBA: 0.352 — ISO: 0.169 — wRC+: 125

Travis Snider

Salaries: FD: $2,200 — DK: $3,300
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 441 — wOBA: 0.319 — ISO: 0.140 — wRC+: 104


Philadelphia

NONEUbaldo Jimenez has pitched well this season and as we all know, the Phillies are ranked dead last in wOBA against right-handed pitching.


Miami at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM EST

Miami NY Yankees
miamimlb Jose Urena nyyankeesmlb Michael Pineda
Right RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY (-194) 7.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.237 0.740 0.322 7.3% SP vs. Left 0.231 0.642 0.278 22.30%
SP vs. Right 0.295 0.755 0.330 13.9% SP vs. Right 0.245 0.638 0.278 23.00%
Batter Splits MIA BvP MIA vs R Batter Splits NYY BvP NYY vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Jose Urena : FD: $5,200 — DK: $4,200

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 26.1 — SIERA: 4.27 — K%: 11.3% — BB%: 5.7% — FB Rate: 26.7% — HR/FB: 13.0%
Last 30 Days: IP: 23.1 — SIERA: 4.04 — K%: 12.9% — BB%: 6.5% — FB Rate: 23.3% — HR/FB: 11.8%

New York Yankees Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.323 (Rank: 5) — Strikeout Rate: 19.7% (Rank: 12)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.337 (Rank: 2) — Strikeout Rate: 20.3% (Rank: 13)
Pitchers per PA: 3.91 (Rank: 5)

Analysis: Urena has electric stuff, but he has been unable to turn that into an elite strikeout rate, both in the minors and in his brief stint with the Marlins. A low strikeout rate takes all fantasy appeal away from a pitcher. Urena also draws a difficult matchup against the Yankees, who are ranked fifth in wOBA (.323) against right-handed pitching and second in wOBA (.337) over the last two weeks.

Pitcher Rating:28.5


Michael Pineda : FD: $9,900 — DK: $8,600

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 151.0 — SIERA: 3.05 — K%: 22.7% — BB%: 2.7% — FB Rate: 35.1% — HR/FB: 7.7%
Last 30 Days: IP: 23.0 — SIERA: 3.32 — K%: 22.1% — BB%: 5.8% — FB Rate: 27.0% — HR/FB: 20.0%

Miami Marlins Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.293 (Rank: 26) — Strikeout Rate: 20.5% (Rank: 20)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.329 (Rank: 5) — Strikeout Rate: 17.0% (Rank: 2)
Pitchers per PA: 3.70 (Rank: 27)

Analysis: Pineda has given up at least four earned runs in three of his last five starts. While that’s concerning, the low price point and the plus-matchup more than outweighs the recent form. Since the start of 2014, he has a 3.05 SIERA with an impressive strikeout rate of 22.7%. He draws one of the best pitching matchups on the board, as the Marlins are ranked 26th in wOBA (.293) and 20th in strikeout rate (20.5%) against right-handed pitching. As one of the largest favorites on the board, Pineda is in play in both cash and tournament play.

Pitcher Rating:83.6

Batter Grind Down

Miami

NONE – Since the start of 2014, Michael Pineda has held left and right-handed hitters under a .280 wOBA. The Marlins have one of the lowest team totals on the board tonight.


NY Yankees

Mark Teixeira : FD: $3,800 — DK: $4,900

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 540 — wOBA: 0.350 — ISO: 0.248 — wRC+: 123
Last 14 Days: PA: 49 — wOBA: 0.435 — ISO: 0.317 — wRC+: 183

Analysis: The Yankees are one of the top offenses to target tonight. They are facing a young pitcher that doesn’t strike anyone out. It would be very surprising to see a good outing from Jose Urena here. Teixeira has been swinging a hot bat with a .435 wOBA and a .317 ISO in the last two weeks. He sees a small boost tonight with the short porch in right at Yankee Stadium.

Brett Gardner

Salaries: FD: $3,800 — DK: $5,100
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 628 — wOBA: 0.341 — ISO: 0.177 — wRC+: 117

Brian McCann

Salaries: FD: $3,500 — DK: $4,100
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 551 — wOBA: 0.307 — ISO: 0.179 — wRC+: 94

Chase Headley

Salaries: FD: $2,200 — DK: $3,900
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 573 — wOBA: 0.314 — ISO: 0.123 — wRC+: 101


NY Mets at Toronto – 7:07 PM EST

NY Mets Toronto
nymetsmlb Jon Niese torontomlb Drew Hutchison
RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR (-190) 8.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.249 0.677 0.297 18.6% SP vs. Left 0.254 0.773 0.337 21.50%
SP vs. Right 0.276 0.770 0.338 16.4% SP vs. Right 0.251 0.702 0.310 23.50%
Batter Splits NYM BvP NYM vs R Batter Splits
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Jon Niese : FD: $7,400 — DK: $6,300

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 257.2 — SIERA: 3.82 — K%: 16.9% — BB%: 5.9% — FB Rate: 27.7% — HR/FB: 11.5%
Last 30 Days: IP: 26.2 — SIERA: 3.75 — K%: 18.0% — BB%: 6.6% — FB Rate: 26.4% — HR/FB: 21.7%

Toronto Blue Jays Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.379 (Rank: 1) — Strikeout Rate: 16.7% (Rank: 3)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.358 (Rank: 1) — Strikeout Rate: 17.1% (Rank: 3)
Pitchers per PA: 3.79 (Rank: 13)

Analysis: Niese has been an above-average starter for the Mets this season, but he is an easy pitcher to avoid tonight. He has to face the Blue Jays in one of the best hitter’s venues in all of baseball. Toronto is ranked first in wOBA (.379) against left-handed pitching and first in wOBA (.358) over the last two weeks. That’s a very bad combination for Niese and the Mets.

Pitcher Rating:40.9


Drew Hutchison : FD: $8,200 — DK: $6,200

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 256.2 — SIERA: 3.66 — K%: 22.4% — BB%: 7.3% — FB Rate: 41.5% — HR/FB: 10.6%
Last 30 Days: IP: 29.2 — SIERA: 3.70 — K%: 19.7% — BB%: 4.9% — FB Rate: 32.6% — HR/FB: 17.2%

New York Mets Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.297 (Rank: 23) — Strikeout Rate: 20.6% (Rank: 21)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 10) — Strikeout Rate: 21.8% (Rank: 23)
Pitchers per PA: 3.84 (Rank: 8)

Analysis: Hutchison would typically deserve cash game consideration in this spot, but with so many aces taking the mound, he is a better tournament option. He has pitched well over the last two seasons, posting a 3.66 SIERA with a high strikeout rate of 22.4%. He draws a favorable matchup against the Mets, who are ranked 23rd in wOBA (.297) and 21st in strikeout rate (20.6%) against right-handed pitching this season.

Pitcher Rating:70.2

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Lucas Duda : FD: $3,400 — DK: $3,800

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 664 — wOBA: 0.383 — ISO: 0.247 — wRC+: 150
Last 14 Days: PA: 54 — wOBA: 0.290 — ISO: 0.093 — wRC+: 86

Analysis: Even though Drew Hutchison is in a good spot tonight, that doesn’t mean that we have to completely avoid taking hitters against him. Hutchison gives up a high wOBA to left-handed hitters and Duda has a high wOBA against right-handed pitching. Duda also sees a favorable ballpark shift tonight playing in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre.

Wilmer Flores

Salaries: FD: $2,900 — DK: $3,300
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: 2B/SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 395 — wOBA: 0.311 — ISO: 0.154 — wRC+: 101


Toronto

Josh Donaldson : FD: $4,700 — DK: $4,700

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 231 — wOBA: 0.445 — ISO: 0.352 — wRC+: 193
Last 14 Days: PA: 61 — wOBA: 0.327 — ISO: 0.123 — wRC+: 107

Analysis: Have you learned your lesson yet? You don’t fade Josh Donaldson against average to below-average left-handed pitchers, especially at home. Donaldson has a .445 wOBA and a .352 ISO against southpaws in the last two seasons. Meanwhile, Jon Niese has given up a .338 wOBA to right-handed hitters. All of the righties in the Blue Jays’ lineup are in play tonight.

Jose Bautista

Salaries: FD: $5,200 — DK: $5,100
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 186 — wOBA: 0.451 — ISO: 0.282 — wRC+: 194

Edwin Encarnacion

Salaries: FD: $4,100 — DK: $4,800
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 158 — wOBA: 0.370 — ISO: 0.195 — wRC+: 137

Jose Reyes

Salaries: FD: $3,900 — DK: $4,700
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 215 — wOBA: 0.294 — ISO: 0.091 — wRC+: 84

Chris Colabello

Salaries: FD: $2,900 — DK: $3,400
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 109 — wOBA: 0.334 — ISO: 0.178 — wRC+: 113


Detroit at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM EST

Detroit Cincinnati
detroitmlb David Price cincinnatimlb Johnny Cueto
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CIN (-105) 7.0
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.257 0.649 0.288 22.6% SP vs. Left 0.188 0.547 0.248 24.40%
SP vs. Right 0.231 0.639 0.280 26.5% SP vs. Right 0.205 0.620 0.274 25.50%
Batter Splits DET BvP DET vs R Batter Splits CIN BvP CIN vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

David Price : FD: $10,900 — DK: $11,300

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 340.2 — SIERA: 2.94 — K%: 25.5% — BB%: 4.2% — FB Rate: 38.5% — HR/FB: 8.5%
Last 30 Days: IP: 39.1 — SIERA: 3.08 — K%: 26.5% — BB%: 5.3% — FB Rate: 42.0% — HR/FB: 0.0%

Cincinnati Reds Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.326 (Rank: 5) — Strikeout Rate: 21.0% (Rank: 16)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.312 (Rank: 15) — Strikeout Rate: 20.3% (Rank: 13)
Pitchers per PA: 3.73 (Rank: 25)

Analysis: Price has been terrific over the last month of play, posting a 3.08 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26.5%. He throws as many strikes as any pitcher in baseball. I love the upside that he provides, but given the fact that Johnny Cueto is pitching opposite him, a win may be hard to come by. At his price point, Price is best suited as a tournament play or as an SP2 on multi-pitcher sites.

Pitcher Rating:82.6


Johnny Cueto : FD: $10,600 — DK: $10,000

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 329.0 — SIERA: 3.14 — K%: 25.0% — BB%: 6.1% — FB Rate: 35.0% — HR/FB: 10.4%
Last 30 Days: IP: 27.0 — SIERA: 3.08 — K%: 23.4% — BB%: 2.7% — FB Rate: 33.8% — HR/FB: 7.7%

Detroit Tigers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.325 (Rank: 4) — Strikeout Rate: 19.2% (Rank: 9)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.332 (Rank: 4) — Strikeout Rate: 19.7% (Rank: 10)
Pitchers per PA: 3.83 (Rank: 10)

Analysis: Cueto has pitched well after missing a start with a shoulder injury. Over the last 30 days, he has a 3.08 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.4%. He’s in a very similar position as David Price tonight. While I like the upside that he provides, run support will be tough to come by. If I’m paying over $10,000 for a pitcher in a cash game, I want to be assured that he has a good chance to pick up the win. I have him pegged as a tournament play and as an SP2 on multi-pitcher sites.

Pitcher Rating:81.1

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

NONE – This should be a pitcher’s duel. Johnny Cueto is dominant at home and he has held left and right-handed hitters under a .275 wOBA in the past two seasons.


Cincinnati

NONE – This game has a very low total, as two of the best pitchers in baseball square off. Both pitchers are in play tonight, while both offenses should be avoided.


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious